An important starting point is noting that this post is NOT some kind of evaluation of the Hurricanes start nor is it a knee-jerk reaction to the tough outing offensively on Tuesday. Rather, it is part of an ongoing process to consider all options to make the team better and also continue a project that Ron Francis was working on over the summer.
The quick history
During the post-season press conference in early April, Francis spoke about improving the team and specifically mentioned adding scoring help. The general expectation and hope was that Francis would add a playmaking center capable of fueling a scoring line that complemented Jordan Staal’s first or second line which leaned defense.
With Matt Duchene clearly on the market and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Alex Galchenyuk also likely available, the options seemed to be there. But probably for the right reasons nothing materialized in terms of adding an offense-leaning centerman. Instead, Francis added Justin Williams as his headline and higher-budget addition and went the route of adding another defense-leaning center in Marcus Kruger.
At a basic level, the team improved at the forward position. But the interrelated questions still looming are whether the improvements are enough and also whether the potential still exists to make a meaningful improvement by adding one more offensively-leaning player.
A VERY early glimpse at the 2017-18 team but IMPORTANTLY with historical perspective
Making any kind of rash judgement on the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes is premature. And identifying problems that have great urgency to them based on two games seems bizarre given that the team is 1-0-1. But trying to learn from even small amounts of actual games trumps just ignoring it, and maybe more significantly the two games carry more weight if they are considered with the context of the entire 2016-17 season.
I wrote about Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal in more detail a few days ago, but at a basic level, here are a couple of things I see…
After a ho-hum preseason, Sebastian Aho has been the somewhat quiet version of phenomenal through two games in terms of generating scoring chances. My count just from what I remember is three point blank chances that he created for Jordan Staal and at least two more for Elias Lindholm to go with the two magnificent assists he does have feeding Noah Hanifin and Victor Rask on pretty playmaking textbook plays.
Aho has two assists in two games which projects to an 82-point season. There is nothing shabby about that. But also worth noting is that despite setting up both players multiple times, Aho has exactly zero assists feeding his line mates despite multiple assist-capable passes to each.
The sample size for 2017-18 is tiny and finishing can be finicky, but when I consider Jordan Staal and Elias Lindholm’s skill set looking at a much broader set of games and also consider the reasonably significant volume of time that the trio played together in 2016-17, I think the two-game read on the situation is pretty representative of the long-term reality.
As I said in the prior article, I think Jordan Staal is a great player and is easily part of the equation for building a winning hockey team in Raleigh, North Carolina. But his strengths do not even come close to including receive/finish type goal scoring skills. Lindholm is a trickier case. He seems to show flashes of having a higher gear in terms of finishing ability, but if I look only backwards, I would put Lindholm is a somewhat similar category to Staal. A key difference is that Lindholm does have a better knack for reading where exactly to be and how to get himself in position to receive a pass and then shoot quickly. Lindholm’s problem seems to be more that of just not being able to pick spots like true snipers can. The results is a decent number misses, a decent number of shots into the goalie’s chest and a below average number of shots into a corner of the net for a goal. But regardless of specifics and potential future upside, historically I would rate Lindholm as average at best for a top 9 forward in terms of receive/finish skills.
This is a problem. Sebastian Aho is quickly establishing himself as the best playmaker on the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes. And until they prove otherwise, the Hurricanes are a team that needs more goal scoring. If you take those two things as true, a team that needs more scoring is likely leaving a good number of goals on the table by playing its best playmaker with sub-optimal finishers.
It is possible that the team’s scoring balance will ultimately win out and that Aho’s ability to at least modestly boost Lindholm and Staal’s goal scoring. But it is also possible that there is significant untapped potential scoring that Coach Bill Peters and General Manager Ron Francis should be looking to tap.
Back to Aho
In general dating back through 84 games of NHL action but also very specifically through two games of the 2017-18 season, here is what I see from Sebastian Aho…
He has shown an ability to find open spots and help create scoring chances for himself when playing without the puck.
But by far and away, the area of the game where he has been lights out dynamic has been playing with the puck on his stick and even a little bit of room to maneuver, buy time, break down the defense and ultimately find a team mate for a grade A scoring chance. Also worth noting is that a reasonable majority of these plays have occurred carrying the puck through the neutral zone, gaining the offensive blue line and ultimately putting the puck on someone else’s stick for a scoring chance.
That, almost by textbook definition, is what one would expect from a playmaking center. Feeding team mates for scoring chances…Receiving the puck either in the defensive zone neutral zone from a defenseman and moving it forward…playing with the puck on his stick either in the middle the ice or behind the net in the offensive zone.
He has had to be a bit liberal with his role to do so, but despite showing up as a “Left Wing” on the scoreboard graphic, Aho’s dynamic plays thus far in the 2017-18 have been every bit that of a playmaking center. The issues are that Aho has to take turns with Jordan Staal whose game is also that of a puck-carrying center and that his playmaking is underutilized without true finishers on his line.
So is it time to move Sebastian Aho to center?
Coach Bill Peters is on record as preferring to be patient in terms of moving either Aho or Lindholm to center though he did say at the front part of the summer that he did eventually see Aho playing the center position. Part of the reasoning is the defensive responsibility. Part of the reasoning is that learning the NHL is a bit easier at wing where the situational reads and decision-making are somewhat less complex. And part of the reason might even have been that Peters expected that Francis would ultimately net another playmaking center before the 2017-18 season began. But Francis did not net a playmaking center this summer, and Aho’s play albeit very early in the season suggests that he might be ready to jump back to his natural center position.
While I do not think the move is necessarily urgent, I think based on how well and just simply how Aho is playing (like a playmaking center), the possibility of moving Aho to center has to at least be near the top of the list of possibilities that Bill Peters has at his disposal.
The Hurricanes are fairly full at the center position, but I think the way it could work by moving Derek Ryan to right wing and putting Victor Rask in a fairly familiar slot next to Jeff Skinner. I would then flank Aho with the two player that I think have the best chance of finishing what he creates. My first try would be Justin Williams and Teuvo Teravainen.
Is there an alternative?
I think the somewhat simpler way to accomplish similar would be to leave Aho at left wing and put him with Rask and Williams. I think Rask and Williams represent a step up from Staal and Lindholm in terms of raw finishing ability and both players should fare well playing without the puck which hopefully creates a model similar to when Ray Whitney and Cory Stillman provided playmaking from the wing on Eric Staal’s line.
If I was coach…
I would look for an opportunity to get Aho some ice time next to Rask.
I go back and forth on whether the two could click. On the one hand, they could be a great complementary pair because Rask is comfortable playing a read/react game without the puck and has more receive/shoot skill than Staal. On the other hand, I am not sure that Rask is necessarily enough of a pure offensive player either and therefore might not make a difference.
As the season progresses, I would bump moving Aho to the center position up the list of possibilities that I would consider in my tinkering trying to spark the offense.
Shorter version
I think Sebastian Aho has been by far and away the team’s best playmaker through two games.
I also think that his set ups have been underutilized and likely will continue to be playing with Staal and Lindholm who I do not view as great options for pairing Aho with finishers who can capitalize.
The ‘wow’ plays that Aho has made have been every bit that of a pure playmaking center carrying the puck through the middle of the ice and then dishing for a scoring chance.
At a minimum, I would try Aho with Rask to see if maybe the two click, and Rask can provide more finishing.
I also think moving Aho back to his natural center position has to be moving up on the list of possibilities.
What say you Caniacs?
1) What are your thoughts on Aho/Staal/Lindholm thus far? Do you think Staal and/or Lindholm can provide the finishing ability necessary to capitalize on Aho’s playmaking?
2) Would you consider moving Aho at this early juncture of the season? If so, would you try a different line (still at left wing) or would you consider a more significant move to the center position?
3) Who is of the mind to be patient and give the line combination more time especially if the team continues to win at a reasonable clip?
Go Canes!
1. Im not a fan of Aho on the Staal line or Skinner on the Ryan line. Basically playing more talented guys with less talented guys in order to maintain possession. Ryan, Stempniak, Staal and Lindholm are possession guys but don’t play well to the strengths of the more talented Aho or Skinner.
Im okay with trying a new line. An Aho-Ryan-TT line. Ryan support Aho and allow for incremental introduction to center throughout the season. Other lines:
Skinner-Rask-Williams
Kuokkanen-Staal-Lindholm
If we keep winning, let it be I guess.
A goal scoring center like Chucky would be a great addition to Aho’s game. He might even come decently cheap these days.
1. Not a fan of this line so far. Staal will never be the finishing center we need to bury Aho’s brilliant passes, and I think we all know that by now after seeing year after year of him firing the puck directly into the goalies chest protector from five feet out. If you watch any of the other elite center’s around the league, it seems the one thing they all have in common is the ability to snipe the puck into the open areas of the net, no matter where it is. It’s just an innate talent they have, either through endless hours of practice, or freakish eye/hand coordination, or probably a lot of both. We simply don’t have that player now (Skinner is the closest). And this is what’s a little frustrating about RF’s offseason moves – he couldn’t swing a deal for that final piece that we really need to make us a top tier contender. And even though it’s only been two games, I still think it’s quite obvious this is our missing piece. Just look around the league right now and see who’s scoring – those stud players… so it’s as though RF has built a house over the summer, a very nice house, but has left out the kitchen appliances because the one’s he wanted weren’t on sale… yet. So, yeah, we can live in the house, but it’s gonna be tough to eat what we really want.
2. Moving Aho to another line could possibly help (maybe center him with Skinner and TT to try and create a true scoring top line?). But again, it’s just going to be a minor uptick in our scoring, if that. And with our defense, and humongous goalie, maybe that would be enough to squeak out a few more wins. But without that true elite scoring talent, it’s just wishful thinking…
3. Kind of like being patient, while wishing for that refrigerator and range so we can eat. So please, RF, just finish the house.
1. Aho has been spectacular so far but the A/S/L line has not produced. I don’t think Staal is, or ever will be the finisher that we need to pair Aho with. I think Lindholm has the possibility to be much better than we’ve seen so far; though as the article mentions he is not a true “sniper” and lacks consistency.
2. I would like to see Aho tried with a few different lines on LW to see if anything clicks. If not then give him a shot at center. I think a TT-Aho-Williams line could be interesting. Maybe something along the lines of:
Teravainen-Aho-Williams
Kuokkanen-Staal-Lindholm
Skinner-Rask-Ryan
3. If we’re winning then who am I to suggest change?
virtus IMO is right. Get Aho on a line with Williams. I would just substitute Kuokkanen for TT on that line. I also like his item 3.
Just curious why you swap Kuokkanen and TT there? I think Turbo is poised for a big breakout; I think he gets more chances playing with Aho (and Williams) which may be just enough to push him over the edge.
IMO Kuokkanen has more offensive potential than TT. That being said, no one has ever referred to me as the Nostradamus of the hockey world. You have just as much chance of being correct as I do. You are also apparently unaware of my margin of error on issues such as this. My margin of error is plus or minus infinity making it extremely difficult for me to be wrong. However, despite the relatively large margin for error I somehow seem to get it wrong more than right. I am wrong based upon my prognostication skills. I am right only when I am lucky. With that, feel safe in your suggesting TT.
We entered the season short a ‘true’ top 6 center, and it is no shock the hole remains. That said, top centers don’t grow on trees and there is a reason to be patient and allow for player development which solves the long-term issue.
But for fans who have not seen great starts and playoff caliber hockey for quite some time, we also need short-term fixes to bridge the gap. I think this is where GMRF and BP slightly disagree. BP teaches players to play his system and understands he cannot carry the system out to the fullest extent WITHOUT depleting other areas or possibly benching a current player making good money. You hear a lot of cheerleading about how deep we are at the center position, but I think BP knows his talent and what he needs. He’s a coach and has to instill confidence in all his players, and while this is pure speculation, even he seems frustrated in interviews this year. I believe this is partly due to internal conflict within management.
Flip side, GMRF did a great job bringing in Darling and Williams. But those moves did not address the playmaking hole at center ice. GMRF seems reluctant to take a calculated risk. We drafted Necas who clearly has skill…play the kid now or send him home (don’t carry him for the sake of practice experience). I can bet BP would love to play Necas but he’d be forced to bench someone significant (meaning GMRF may need to make room elsewhere). Move Aho to center now and allow BP to pair together the players he needs to carry out your mission as GM. Right now our top two centers should be Aho and Staal, with Rask/Necas at 3C. If this means moving Ryan to wing, or not playing a particular player then so be it. Teams that win early and often are the ones who manage player personnel and are not afraid to take calculated risks (round peg, round hole).
We earned 3 of 4 points to start the season, so this is not time for desperate measures. However, both games were not smooth and shows preseason offense does not translate in the regular season. BTW, Necas was in most of those preseason games when the offense appeared in synch.
Attendance for game #2 (being a Tuesday night draw against a ‘meh’ opponent following a huge opener) was not going to do well. But this clearly shows fans read through the rhetoric and beyond the excitement of a season opener. So I agree with goaliedad, finish the job GMRF and allow BP to carry out his mission successfully. Make a decision on Necas, move out a player if needed…but do this ASAP so the team can gel offensively.
I completely agree with your sentiments regarding teams that win early and often take those risks, if Peters deems there a reason to worry about the offense (I am worrying but what else can fans do?) . Ryan would be fine on the RW and he adds something because he can take faceoffs.
fiftymissioncap, I echo your comments. I also think live_free_or_die makes some good points.
We are deep at center but lack the right type of centerman.
Staal and MK have very similar skillset, greatteams don´t have two shutdown centers, they have a center that is elite playmaking / scoring type and a shutdown center.
Keeping with my grocery store theme, Francis went to the store to buy donuts over the summer but ended up with 10 pounds of chicken breast because it was on sale. He also forgot to buy taco shells and is forced to cook up a delicious meal with 10 pounds of chicken breast, a jar of marmalade and a bag of browny mix (yes, I watch Chopped when hockey is not available).
This is state fair time so he could just try and throw all these in the deep fryer and he might be on to a winner, but it won’t make for excellent donuts, let alone chicken dinner.
Galchunuk seems to be more and mor available from the Habs, Duchene may still be available from the Avalanch, I just don’t see why we can’t make that one extra move to get the Canes from hope and pray with 4000 people in attendance (it felt like it on Tuesday) to a true category 5 force ready to blow through Toronto and Pittsburgh and leave a traille of playoff misses (but no property damage or injries).
We have a lot of good pieces but somehow I can’t fit them together into a potent puzzle in my mind, we don’t have the right pieces. There Is a lot of promise in the pipeline but we want our feast to start today.
I am watching the Galchenyuk/Canadiens situation like a hawk. I originally had that as the last paragraph (plan C) but ran out of time and figured this was long enough anyway. 🙂
For those who have not been tracking it, Galchenyuk has 0 points in 4 games and has seemingly already found his way back into the dog house and the fourth line.
Would you trade Rask+modest sweetener for Galchenyuk? That is the core of a trade that makes sense. With the open market of the offseason gone, it’s even harder for Francis to trade a roster defenseman, even Fleury, because it is hard to replace them. And Montreal actually needs a scoring-capable forward back ideally if they part with Galchenyuk who is in that role.
I am actually higher on Rask than most. His scoring ceiling might be something like what we have already seen which is not eye-popping, but he is just a good all-around player. But especially with the addition of Kruger, the Canes are maybe one too many in terms of pretty good centers who are light scoring-wise for their role. Galchenyuk is a bit more of a wild card, but his offensive ceiling is higher which makes him at least potentially the perfect player to balance offense/defense at center.
Matt, I have been an advocate of including Rask as part of trades for a scoring forward such as Galchenyuk or Duchene. But, after looking closer at Galchenyuk stats he has about the same scoring potential as Rask and is much poorer in faceoffs. This being the case, I’ve changed my mind as far as a Rask for Galchenyuk. Now if we are talking in a trade for Duchene, I’m still all in.
The team may already have the players needed. I think perceptions are standing in the way. gocanes0506 has Aho with Ryan. Few others have mentioned that. My guess is most of us see Ryan as a nice story but not more than a marginal talent. I am beginning to think the preseason and first two games are representative and Ryan has 25-goal potential. He had highest shooting % on the team last year and has led different leagues in scoring. His continued success at faceoffs indicates at least one of his talents has continued in NHL. Why not his ability to score.
Let Aho center TT and Ryan. The advanced stats from last year show Rask is at his best centering Skinner and Lindholm. Which allows the rookie to play with two veterans– Kuokkanen with Staal and Williams. Each line has two options for draws, which BP likes.
I am not saying Ryan is going to be Wheeler or Ovie. However that line centered by Aho could generate 65 goals. As could Skinner/Rask/Lindholm. Staal and Williams are going to have some success and both clicked with Kuokkanen in preseason. Once I think about Ryan as having goal-scoring upside, all three lines look better.
I also think the team has the players they need. In addition they are building, (not re-building), which all good teams continuously do.
And I am also intrigued the rotation of Aho to center, Ryan to right wing, and Kuokkanen to left wing. There are many interesting combinations with that lineup, one I would like to see is Kuokkanen-Aho-Williams, a couple kids with a savvy veteran.
ashevillecaniac, I also like Kuokkanen-Aho-Williams (see above). I can see Aho feeding two proven finishers (assuming Kuokkanen can replicate his amateur stats to some extent). Others have suggested TT replacing Kuokkanen on such a line and that would also be worth a try IMO.
RedRyder, I missed your post the first time through (or it planted the thought!). According to corsica.hockey, after a (tiny) two game sample size Kuokkanen is projected to lead the team in goals for with Aho second. Seeing them together with a veteran possession monster could be magic.
This is interesting and something I hadn’t really considered but I like it…
Skinner-Rask-Lindholm
Kuokkanen-Staal-Williams
Teravainen-Aho-Ryan
I like those line combinations. The LW/C combos look good and Ryan, Williams and Lindholm have the skill sets to slot in to any of those lines if something doesn’t click.
Some good ideas, and I tend to agree with the need for a better mix…of talent. Changing lines “might” work… but acquiring the RIGHT PIECE…makes more sense to me!
Ryan is a bit underrated by some here IMO, BUT under-utilized by BP. AHO should be centering a line, at least till he fails, or something else changes…
IS there any news on the injured?
I am not going to comment too much on line shifts – I have previously admitted that I really don’t know what Peters looks with his line combinations.
I am not pleased with Aho on Staal’s left. My impression in preseason is that Staal elevated the game of both Teuvo and Kuokkanen – the same can’t be said right now for Aho-Staal.
To speak to the more general them of the post, I definitely the answer to top-6 is internal. That is consistent with RF’s vision of building a sustainable top-tier contender and I think is reflected in our depth at forward, with some all-stars in the making – including Aho and Necas (who I met today and is eager to get some regular-season ice time).
Rask for Galchenyuk? – we would come out behind on that one.
I can see Rask being traded a few years from now, when centers like Wallmark and Necas are ready, and Aho has made the move to C – but trading him right now doesn’t make sense to me. He is a solid 2-way player who does a lot of things even when he doesn’t show up on the scoreboard.
As for anybody for Duchene, again I am not keen on a player who didn’t get past December before giving up on his team and his fans.
I’ve spent the day soaking in the comments …
First, Galchenyuk for Rask – or for anyone – is an expensive risk at $4.9/yr for the next three years, especially for a reclamation project with “upside.” We are going to struggle to keep the core together as it is over the next few years, even with the influx of young talent, so I just think losing a known quantity like Rask for a more expensive unknown isn’t a good idea at this point, especially when you throw in his defensive liabilities, which flies in the face of the identity of the team.
Second, why are we already suggesting we have an offensive production problem? We scored 4 goals against a Vezina-finalist in game 1 and ran into a hot Vezina winner in Game 2 (BTW, CBJ is obviously a sound defensive team because again they allowed only 1 goal tonight). I think we need to let the players play a few more games to get in rhythm and to give the law of averages more of a chance. We’ve had great looks; they are going to start finding the net more often. These players are too talented.
Third, I think it’s been said on this blog over the summer by me and by others, that at least one 1C is already on our roster, and it sure looks like Aho is ahead of BP’s schedule and may force BP to make the decision to move him to center sooner rather than later difficult, similar to how Necas made his decision hard during the pre-season. That’s going to have a few ripple effects that we haven’t fully processed yet.
Fourth, I’m as anxious as anyone for us to come out of the gate strong and start winning, but I’m not willing to sacrifice our plan to do it especially after only 2 games. Duchene, Galchenyuk, TvR, anyone else for that matter: the deals didn’t make sense over the summer and, after seeing the offensive talent on our roster and in the system over the pre-season, they make even less sense to me now. Does anyone really think that a Duchene deal that includes Hanifin or even Fleury is worth it? I like the moves GMRF has made – and I’m sure he tried to make others but couldn’t or wouldn’t pay the (premium) price.
Let the team play. It’s too early to think about doing anything else.