Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a small collection of random Canes notes that have yet to make it into a bigger article or add another layer of detail.
Standings de ja vu
With a big win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday night, the Hurricanes now sit three points out of the final playoff spot currently occupied by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus also has a game in hand, so by my games above .500 adjusted math, the Hurricanes are four points out of a playoff spot.
If one looks at the standings for February 5, 2018 (highly recommend dropyourgloves.com for checking standings on past dates), the picture looks very similar. The Hurricanes were actually two points better at one point out of a playoff spot but giving up one game in hand. Using my adjusted math, the Hurricanes were two points off the pace, which is two points worse than right now.
Put simply, the Hurricanes are in familiar territory right now. The challenge in front of the team right now is charting a different course forward as the pressure rises and it becomes make or break time for the playoffs. From this point forward last year, the team actually went 3-0-1 but then followed that up by doing a nose dive heading into the trade deadline by crashing with an 0-6-2 record leading up to the trade deadline.
Micheal Ferland
With the extension of Jordan Martinook during the off week, the Hurricanes took care of one impending unrestricted free agent. Still on the roster is a sizable group of impending unrestricted free agents in Justin Williams, Curtis McElhinney, Petr Mrazek, Micheal Ferland,
If the Hurricanes are even within ‘remote chance’ range of the playoffs, Justin Williams would stay for certain, and the team would be inclined to stand pat with the goalies to give the team a chance but also because both who would be backups for playoff-bound teams would yield only a modest return.
But the big question mark is Micheal Ferland who has made regular appearances in the rumor mill recently. I discussed his situation in some detail on January 21, so this is an extension of that. From a Canes standpoint, Ferland has done about everything he can to carve out a role on the team. As a power forward who can skate and has decent finishing ability, he meshed well with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen early in the season. And his size with scoring ability is something that the Hurricanes could use. So Ferland is not a question of fit or team need. Rather, Ferland is a question about value and risk. If he wants a max type deal that spans 4-6 years and possibly pushes north of $5 million per year, the Hurricanes have to consider the risk and potential outcomes of such a deal. I am on record as being willing to pay high but only for a shorter-term deal of two, maybe three years. I would not do the 4-6 year deal for more than $5 million per year simply because of risk.
If the team is in the playoff chase come trade deadline time and if Ferland is not likely going to be re-signed, the tough question for Canes management is whether the team should keep him for the playoff chase sort of as an internal rental or if it should instead collect a return for trading him. Because of his sub-$2 million salary cap hit that fits in even the tightest of budgets and his desired skill set as a power forward, Ferland would likely net a good return likely to include a high draft pick (first or second round) and possibly more. That is tough to pass up if the Hurricanes know at that point that Ferland will likely be leaving as a free agent in July.
Because of the size of the return, I would begrudgingly trade Ferland if he is not going to be re-signed. I would then turn around and spend a mid-round draft pick or two to back fill Ferland’s spot with another forward even if it is a depth player. If Waddell could work some magic, the team could net a first round pick, lose only a fourth round pick and get a player to replace Ferland to boot.
Auston Matthews’ potential impact on the Carolina Hurricanes
The Toronto Maple Leafs announced that the team had extended Auston Matthews for five years at a whopping $11.63 million per year. Current math shows the Leafs with $7.6 million of cap room for 2019-20 and still eight roster spots to fill including re-signing Kasperi Kapanen and Mitch Marner. The Leafs do get some cap relief from Nathan Horton’s $5 million LTIR and also the likelihood that the salary cap will increase next season. But even still, the math most certainly means that the Leafs will need to trade a player or two. This situation could put William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen and Mitch Marner in play. With the Hurricanes needing another forward or two, this could be relevant to the Canes.
The other interesting upshot is Sebastian Aho’s contract situation. Aho will need to be re-signed this summer if not earlier. Aho was drafted one year earlier, but is similarly coming off of his entry-level contract. Matthews missed some time due to injury, but his scoring pace for 82 games is 99 points. Aho is not far behind at 95. I do not think Aho would be able to negotiate for Matthews type money simply because Matthews has posted bigger totals in prior years. But as a young superstar who is a team leader offensively, I do think Matthews contract matters. First, it sets a precendent for young stars seeking the maximum possible versus at least considering what is best for the team. Second, though Aho might be a notch below Matthews, Aho’s next deal could still use Matthews’ deal as a reference point.
When the season started, I thought the Hurricanes would do well to get Aho signed long-term for maybe a tiny bit less than $7 million per year. With his 95-point scoring pace for 2018-19, that number likely pushed up into the $8 million range. The question is whether Matthews’ deal makes sense and whether Aho would push for as close to that as possible.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Would you have guessed that the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes are actually about two points farther out of a playoff spot than last season’s team? Do you think the team will be able to better navigate the trade deadline lead up that has sunk the Hurricanes in recent years.
2) What do you think of the Auston Matthews’ contract in terms of impacting Sebastian Aho’s next contract? Also, which if any of the potentially available Maple Leafs forwards would you consider pursuing?
Go Canes!
1) I do remember the team being in the playoff race last year in February. However, the current team “feels” different. The biggest factors are consistent goaltending, depth scoring, defensive scoring, and having a true 1C. Since the beginning of 2019 the Canes have been an NHL playoff caliber team. I still think the odds of the team making the playoffs are about 40%, but I am fairly confident the Canes won’t destruct.
2) Matthews is likely the second biggest young gun in hockey. I think his contract will have a small impact on Aho’s. The reason Aho will likely get $8.5M is his performance. The comparables are likely to be Johansen, Kuznetsov, and Draisaitl.
3) If Staal returns, the loss of Ferland is minimal the way the Canes are playing. The team can easily construct two scoring lines (Niederreiter/Aho/Williams and Svechnikov/Wallmark/Teravainen) a disruption line capable of facing top lines around the league (McGinn/Staal/Martinook) and what is already a contributing fourth line (Foegele/McKegg/Maenalanen). I would argue that scoring might even increase by pairing Svech with TT. Given that, I think moving Ferland if he is an obvious rental is an easy decision.
On 3) I have to disagree a bit. Wallmark is not a center in any scoring line. He is too slow and seem to need 20 grade A chances to score one goal.
Ferland need to be playing with the top guys in order to be effective. Niederreiter is just a little bit better than him with the puck so that he can keep the play alive in the offensive zone.
If Ferland will be traded I would like to see the Canes to sign a center even if it is just for the rest of the season.
have to disagree on Wally…. I think his skill set is best on a 2nd scoring line. Look what he did in the other leagues… yes, I know that hardly ever translates to the big club, however, I think he is very responsible and is focusing on that first…. the more he feels like he is fitting in, the more scoring will come… at least IMO.
I agree with CT that this year feels different. The team seems more resilient and is playing its best hockey of the season right now, having trended higher over the past 6 weeks. Last year’s team never really put it together. If we continue to play this way, we may not get the results but we’ll be one tough out.
Now that we’ve gotten through the recent gauntlet of very good playoff teams, this next stretch of games is going to be our real playoffs: BUF, NYR, NJD, OTT, then EDM, DAL, and NYR at home, then FLA, DAL away: a lot of games on the road mostly against teams with fewer points that us. Here’s our chance to purge the past.
I think we’re going to wind up trading Ferland, which is fine for all the reasons you’ve mentioned, Matt, but CT, I’m not sure that getting Staal back helps that situation – they play different games and our offense, frankly, has improved dramatically without Staal. It’s going to be a real test for RBA to figure out how to reinsert him in the lineup without disrupting our mojo.
Three games past the break, our game looks just as good as it did in January and our schedule is less intimidating. I would say the odds have improved on our chances. It sounds crazy, but the current top 5 teams in the Metro could finish in any order – WAS, PIT, and CBJ are not playing well at the wrong time of the season. Hope springs eternal 🙂
Yes, this is a different team from last year, younger, more balanced, tougher and with that little bit of swagger.
Was it last year or the year before where we reached a high by beating Pit at home, then on to Bos to lose 7 to 1 and then into the ultimate collapse. I think it was last year, but sadly it’s happened in a lot of years.
But I think these kids could figure it out, still low on playoff hope, but if they manage to get at least 7 points out of the next 10 (tall order, but doable if the team plays consistently, gets good goal tending and can keep out of the penalty box), anything is possible.
The powerplay is the team’s biggest challenge, but hopefully it’s a coachable one.
I think the problem on the powerplay is that both players with the right hand shot (Williams&Faulk) are unable to move the puck quickly enough. The canes desperately need a skilled forward who soots right. Necas is coming but adding Nylander would help the powerplay big time.
If you take a PPG rate comparison and apply it to contract differences, Aho would get a 9.937 AAV deal. Aho has a .82 compared to Matthews’ .96 PPG rate in their careers (or 85.4 percent of Matthews’).
Marner is staying. Would they trade Nylander on July 2nd? If so we’d pay him about 5 million AAV for 5 seasons of hockey. That is pretty good IMO. If not trading a couple of bottom 6 producers on ELCs for Kapanen would be cool too.
Except Aho’s PPG is trending up and now is 1.13. 93% of Mathews this year. So Aho even more expensive for the team. Aho should demand at least 11. If we are going to have a team, then we must have Aho.
1. I remain from Missouri – I am not convinced this is a “different” team than we were in December (and again in OTT and NYR) when we didn’t come to the ice with consistent drive and energy. When we come to play we are very good – but we have shown far too frequently this season that we can go the other way. Also, our special teams are still a weakness – that has already cost us games and may well do so again in the future.
2. Aho is playing his way to $8M+ for his next contract. Interesting, though, is the term in Matthews contract – 5 years and he is up for UFA atatus. I wouldn’t be surprised if Aho considers the same.
Also not mentioned is Matthews contract structure. More than 90% of his salary is in the form of signing bonuses. He will get paid whether there is a lockout or not. I find it difficult to think that TD will want to pay anyone who isn’t working for that money.
I agree on Walmark. He’s steady, defensively responsible, and a good story, but he does not score enough to be anything more than a 4th line center. He is not a poor man’s Jordan Staal, but more of a middle class Staal, obviously at a much more affordable contract.
Nylander would be enticing and Tor really needs to get rid of his contract. Kapenen would be even better for the Canes but Tor does not want to let him go.
Tor might be interested in someone like TVR or Fleury, decent top 6 D with some experience and affordable contract, or a high end prospect like Fox (if Fox does not want to sign here), plus we have plenty of bottom 6 young kids with some potential that we could trade.
Toffoli from the Kings would be another guy that I would really like as a second line center, not sure if he is a tradable asset.
We all hope Necas will be that guy but I don’t think he has had a goal in 10 or 20 games, he is hitting a wall, big time, and maybe he’s just not ready for prime time yet, Brandon can update us on the real deal with Necas I’ sure and I hope can paint a more positive picture than my glance at the Checkers game recaps.
I have only seen Necas playing in the NHL but I have to admit that those games got me a little bit concerned. The way he was taking time and space away from him with the puck… Great players know how to create time and space for themselves. Hopefully it was just his nerves and he will adjust.
A question for those who follow the Checkers more closely: Is Gauthier anywhere near able to fill Ferland’s skates?
Hopefully Brandon will chime in as he tracks the Checkers day by day like most of us do the Canes.
But my assessment of Gauthier from training camp (which lines up with Gauthier in previous visits to Raleigh) is that he looks every bit of an NHL power forward with the puck on his stick and a chance to make a play from the offensive blue line in. The issue that as of September, his play without the puck had yet to mature both offensively and defensively. He had too many long stretches of invisible in between the few ‘oh wow’ plays.
Would be curious to hear from Brandon if other aspects of his game are developing.
The player Gauthier plays like is Svechnikov. He is big, fast, and likes to turn on the jets from the blue line with the puck heading straight toward the goal. He is physical, but doesn’t initiate contact like Ferland. Gauthier doesn’t have a quick shot like Ferland. He is much better when he can skate a couple strides and then shoot.
This year’s team seems to be peaking at the right time with good momentum. I expect the surge to continue and push us into playoff position. My thoughts:
1. Re-sign Ferland with whatever it takes within reason. Would you own a $70,000,000 home and not get insurance? He is rare in that he is young, hits like a wrecking ball, fights like a demon, and scores. Notice that the cheap and dirty hits from years past are minimal this year. He is excellent protection and we need to take the calculated risk to sign him even though his risk of injury is higher than most.
2. Keep the defense intact. Our team may be the first team in NHL history with the lowest overall payroll but the highest payroll for defense. So far the experiment is working well.
3. We could be underestimating Aho’s contract amount. I predict $8.85M for 7 years.
4. Having Jordan Staal return is a very good problem to have.
5. I have my doubts that we will make a deal with Toronto.
I’m with you and think Aho has worked his way up to higher dollars. He has proven to be a 1C this year. He is not Matthews proven 11mil+, but he’s probably in the 9mil range.
The latest verison of Shaya’s 10 thoughts (posted a couple of days ago) says
“10. It looks like Martin Necas is getting more comfortable playing center. With the loss of Greg McKegg to Carolina, Necas has no choice but to lead the way as the team’s first-line center. He’s getting there with the help of coach Mike Vellucci. ”
It does not appear to be showing up on the score sheet but hopefully this means that those who watch the team on a regular basis are seeing improvements.