With all quiet on the trade front on Tuesday and only one more day until training camp starts, today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at the salary cap from a couple different angles.
Small but potentially burdensome error with Jake Gardiner signing
The signing of defenseman Jake Gardiner pushed the Hurricanes up into uncharted waters as a team that shows to be currently above the salary cap on CapFriendly. As I noted in a couple places, the current roster of the Hurricanes is set to squeeze under the salary cap ceiling without needing to a trade. If one counts assumes that one of forwards Brian Gibbons and Clark Bishop head to the AHL along with one of Haydn Fleury or Gustav Forsling on defense, the Hurricanes come in right at the $81,500,000 salary cap ceiling. But therein lies the problem and what I think could prove to be an error in signing Gardiner. The Hurricanes are so tight that if it was Fleury and Bishop heading to the AHL, the team would be over the salary cap limit by literally $5,000. Any other combination would squeeze under but only by less than $100,000. So that math could be workable, but because it is so tight, it could create headaches as the season rolls along. At the maximum, if the Hurricanes need to call up a player to replace another without formally putting the first on injured reserve, the call up would need to have a salary less than the player he replaces. That would not be a problem for replacing a higher cost player, but the Hurricanes also have Wallmark making $675,000 and Foegele at $747,000. Players like Luostarinen, Kuokkanen, Gauthier and Pritchard who have slightly higher cost entry-level deals might not work as swap ins for Wallmark or Foegele. Of course, if the Hurricanes trade Justin Faulk as rumored this week or have a player go on injured reserve, flexibility will be gained. But until that occurs, I feel like the Hurricanes could have gained potentially significant wiggle room if his salary had clocked in just a tiny bit lower. Of course, this potential problem would be resolved immediately if the team trades Justin Faulk of a higher-priced player or if a player with at least a medium salary is injured long-term.
Near-term relief
With the Hurricanes right at the salary cap ceiling for the 2019-20 season one might assume that the team will have minimal flexibility for 2020-21 and beyond. That actually is not true. Remember that $6.25 million of this year’s salary cap hit is Marleau. That comes off the books next summer. In addition, the team is still on the hook for $2.33 million for Alexander Semin’s buyout, but that comes off the books for the 2021-22 season. Those two contracts alone would free up $8.5 million without replacement players needing to be signed and paid. That relief is significant with the team needing to sign Foegele and Svechnikov to new contracts for 2020-21 and 2021-22 respectively. In addition, James Reimer’s contract expires after the 2020-21 season. That makes for a total of $11.7 million of cap space that will be cleared in time for Svechnikov’s next contract with only a backup goalie slot needing to be back filled.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think the team’s tightness to the salary cap ceiling will create problems during the 2019-20 season?
2) Who has other salary cap-related subjects to bandy around?
Go Canes!
If the deal with the Ducks falls through, how about Justin Faulk and our Haydn and James Reimer to the Jets for Blake Wheeler and a third-round pick?
The Jets are hungry for d-men and are disappointed in their goalkeepers. Us sending them about $8 million and them sending us under $6 million.
Wheeler’s cap hit is 8.25 thru 23-24 with a current NMC.
Worth it, he is a tremendous player.
It’s a mess. There is no way they planned to be even near the cap when they agreed to take the Marleau hit. In one way it’s nice to have an owner willing to spend to win, but when he does it in an impulsive fashion it creates issues.
While the Canes have depth at D, I’m not sure it is a well constructed D core if you lose Faulk. Too much on the offensive side and not enough players that actually take care of their own zone.
Waddell will figure it out IMO. Even if we lose a couple of players through waiver claims, what’s the loss if they players can’t make our starting 23 now? We will probably jettison someone for draft picks or prospects and that will be the end of it. The important thing is we have a potent roster right now. We are in this to get into the playoffs and go after the Cup now. Why all the worry about managing dollars when we know we will get under the cap if we dump or otherwise move a couple of fringe players even if we keep Faulk?
NO PROBLEM AT ALL!!
…don’t you think they are ten steps ahead of EVERY move?
GM’s play CHESS…not checkers!
I’d be willing to bet that the “Checkers in CHARLOTTE” have 4-6 guys that Waddell would be happy to see playing here, if they needed to get below the cap, soooo…there are numerous options.
No, I don’t think they are even one step ahead. Few front offices are. It’s much more of a gongshow than you think and I’m not just cutting on the Canes. Lots of passion, owners that want things done their way and just plain incompetence. (See Minnesota) There is a reason a guy like Lou Lamorello is considered one of the best ever. He has a plan. He lost in the Toronto power struggle to Babcock, but I would look out for the Isles down the road. TO is in a bad spot. Not enough cap space for all their stars. Should have kept Lou.
Puckgod. You are on target. Donny and Tommy are playing chess. And they are playing with quite a bit more information than is publicly available. To think they are acting on impulse is to not think at all.
Ignorance is bliss and I had been quite happy thinking the cap was at 83.5. 😀
At 81.5, the issues you point out as valid. I wasn’t thinking that a Faulk trade was a cap dump but it fits the bill when the bill is needed. Without that salary dump our hands are definitely tied right tightly in being able to make moves. If not Faulk then someone with salary needs to depart. I am sure Waddell had that in mind when Gardiner was signed – it is just now a matter of implementing it.
There is a third dimension to the “chess” being played by the “committee”. In June 2021 the Seattle expansion draft will be held. The Canes will lose a good player that day one way or another, likely a defenseman. Those who have the time and interest are making predictions. The name I’ve seen suggested most is Jake Bean, next most is Haydn Fleury. Forsling was being discussed as a likely loss to the Blackhawks as well. For me I see the logjam of up and coming waiver eligible defenseman as a risk to the team, both short and long term. That risk is complicated by the Gardiner signing. That risk is more concerning to me than getting under the cap by the start of the season. Faulk represents a redundancy on the teams defensive depth chart. His impending trade is a necessary evil, made necessary by the embarrassment of riches on our blue line. I categorize it as a good problem to have.
Here’s a little more on the offer Montreal made to Gardiner. Appears he turned down $5.75million/3 years from Bergevin earlier in the summer. Signed here for close to the same total dollars spread over 4 years. Canadiens web sites will be a fun read the next few days. https://mynhltraderumors.com/quick-hits-jake-gardiner-pavel-zacha-patrice-bergeron-dobson-beleskey-matthews/2019/09/11/
Exactly, and I still think I understated it when I said CHESS…Should have said “three dimensional chess”!!
That’s why they have a COMMITTEE.
My guess. There is a comprehensive strategy being followed. It’s a strategy that we’ve largely missed due to the numbness brought on by the prolonged drudgery of having PKarmanos as an absentee landlord and RFrancis as a bland, hyper conservative GM. This new strategy is just so alien to us fans we’ve missed it. The new goal is straightforward; build off last season’s trip to the ECFs, driving attendance and advertising revenue in the process. Patience is no longer the virtue required to understand the plan. TD is not just changing the “on ice culture” but “rebranding the Canes” as well, staying in the local and North American hockey news cycle as much as possible. This feels so different because it is. Me, I kinda like it. It just doesn’t taste like the old “I like this team” Kool-aid anymore.
Before the bland Ronny, there was the quiet but not bland nor conservative Jimmy. With Mr. K’s death grip on the purse strings, Jimmy was always looking on the bottom of the barrel for bargains. He was always stealing gems from GMs who didn’t know what they had.
For several years before 2006, he brought aboard a bunch of nobodies, has beens and never wases. He gave those guys a chance to prove themselves to the hockey world. That 2005-06 season was magic. It was magic for them. It was magic for us.
I am sure there are still DVDs on that season still available somewhere. It would be a worthwhile history lesson. I guarantee it will be fun to watch.
What is happening now feels similar. Except that Donny is not limited by a cheapskate owner. This is really fun to watch.
Go Tommy! Go Donny! Go Roddy!
Guys like Corey Stillman, Ray Whitney, Mike Cullen were hardly nobodies. Stillman already had two cups. What they did anticipate was the rule changes in the NHL and built their team accordingly. Worked like a charm. Karmanos also spent to get Doug Weight and Mark Recci.
This is much more haphazard. I totally disagree there is a plan. This is total impulse, but it doesn’t mean it wont work.
Less than. Corey Stillman was 33 years old the year we won the Cup. Has been. Not a nobody. Ray Whitney was a year older. Has been. Not a nobody. MATT Cullen, while a year or two younger, was a nobody. You prove my point by calling him Mike. Or were you referring to someone else? Matt Cullen’s 25 goals in season 2005-06 were a career high for him by quite a bit.
You want to see impulsive moves where there are none. Others want to see Tommy as a cheapskate while he spends to the cap and more millions to improve my fan experience. Mazel tov.
Maybe the plan is to constantly search for the best valued players that play the way RBA wants and helps the team… then deal with the consequences. Seems to be working so far. (as far as one year anyway:))
And, I know everyone remembers, but a reminder if you don’t, part of the reason we are where we are now is because of the “bland” GMRF and the way he kept and built assets as opposed to going all in when there wasn’t a chance in hell that was going to work.
As I’ve said for awhile, I don’t see the need to trade Faulk until we see what we really have.
I like your reasoning. 1. Get the best players you can for playing the style of hockey required to win and worry about the dollars when you need to (your first paragraph). 2. No need to blast Ronnie as he was dealing with an entirely different ownership strategy and budget. He did do some good things that helped get the team where it is today (your second paragraph). 3. What’s the hurry on Faulk? What? Are we in dire fear of losing one or two fringe players to waivers (Bishop, McKeon, Fleury, etc.)? What’s wrong with keeping Faulk and the rest of our current top six defensemen for now? Maybe later in the season it will make more sense to move someone besides Faulk (your third paragraph).
On the salary cap issue there is an emergency backup plan that could be put into play: assign Reimer to CLT. Yes he would have to clear waivers, and it would be a shame to give him up for nothing, but that is way cheaper than a buyout. He was on the way to getting bought out when we traded Darling for him.
If he is claimed off waivers, then it is similar to buying our Darling for free.
Unless he comes in and kills it, not a bad option.
I read something just yesterday – I would have to find it – that the cap math of assigning Reimer to CLT and having Ned in Raleigh is only about $400K. It’s a difference maker but not as much as you would have thought – the Canes retain some percentage of Reimer’s cap.
As a former high-level competitive chess player…this isn’t chess.
Chess is all about looking 3-5 moves forward and then forcing your opponent to make the moves you want him/her to make.
This is much more opportunistic, as ptblespaul states. To suggest otherwise is to presume non-human prescience.
We easily had the cap space to take on Marleau and TD was willing to spend up to get a 1st rounder.
Trading Darling for Reimer saves us from buying out Darling while retaining an NHL goalie – a move to make the team better that took some work to make happen.
We cap-dump traded CdH in anticipation of an offer sheet from MTL for Aho, without knowing how much cap space we would need. Management apparently expected a higher offer (and said so) – so the extra cap/salary space from CdH gave us the chance to pick up Dzingel. Nice opportunistic pickup.
We knew for a while that JW wasn’t coming back – and the writing was on the wall for Faulk (who I am now expecting will be moved because of the cap constraints either as a rental trade or as a hockey trade if there is an extension involved for Faulk). Regardless, JW’s official decision gave us the possibility to pick up Faulk’s role replacement in Gardiner. But we were faced with a decision to keep Faulk and risk nothing in return, or pick up a player who could step into his role and be in a position to trade Faulk without missing a beat.
The role of the GM is to constantly look to make the team better – making phone calls, having conversations – talking with other teams and agents. They are always looking at possibilities and opportunities, and fielding queries from other teams looking to do the same.
Waddell is a highly effective GM in this regard, he is completely in his element – and this matches surgalt’s “change the brand” thesis of the Canes under the new O/M team.
The big ? here is swapping Faulk for Gardiner. Different kinds of defensemen to start. Even though I wouldn’t call Gardiner bad, it’s a downgrade. I think the Canes will miss a beat defensively and on the PK.
I still believe this was a “Oh,can we do this?” summer. If they knew they were going to make all these moves they wouldn’t have agreed to take on the Marleau cap hit. They also didn’t know Gardiner would be available in September. They didn’t expect an offer sheet for Aho. Reactionary at best, impulsive at worst.
That offer sheet took no one by surprise. They started expecting one more than a week beforehand and knew on Friday, 6/28, one was on it’s way. They just didn’t know the amount.
And according to Matt just a couple of days ago here, the Canes and Gardiner had been talking for something like a month, all conditional on JW’s formal notification of his decision.
I am sure they would reconsider the Marleau decision, but there is no way in early July they knew, or had planned, how this offseason would play out. But that is what I mean by opportunistic – it seemed like a good opportunity at the time, but that accursed hindsight! LOL!
Knowing an offer sheet is coming a week ahead of time is not planning.
You say opportunistic. I say reactive. Still not a plan in my book.
I am not saying “a plan”. I am saying “reacting to an opportunity”. I actually think we are very close to saying the same thing.
But they did have to plan for an offer sheet of an unknown amount once they knew expected one to come. Planning is what you do when you expect something to happen – in this case they needed to clear space in case MTL offered a much higher amount. And they didn’t want to have to try to clear space when everyone knew they needed to do so and by what amount.
There is a concept called “rigid flexibility”. That is likely at work here. Pre-Waddell it mostly just “rigidity”. Both can be the right strategy in the right context. RF made the right moves beginning a rebuild under Karmanos. Waddell has made the right moves ending a rebuild under Dundon. It will be interesting to see how RF fares in Seattle, and how his philosophy adapts to a different set of constraints and opportunities. His legacy will depend on how it does there, not how he did here. As is said in Pittsburgh about JR, “winning is the best deodorant”.
Great conversation all the way around. Today we can ice a 22 man roster, sending down Gibbons and Forsling and have about $45,000 in cap space. That leaves Clark Bishop as the 13th forward and, with Faulk still on the roster, Haydn Fleury as the 7th defenseman. If we got into the injury/call up situation that Matt alludes to, you likely see Bishop swapped out for the player coming up. It could still cause a bit of a challenge, but as time passes and games are played, you actually gain more cap flexibility. So I am less worried about that today. You do, however, run the risk of losing a guy like Clark Bishop to waivers in that situation, but I think the likelihood is pretty low. Teams have lots of Clark Bishops in their systems. I also think this is where a Saku Maenalanen might come in. He remains unsigned, but could end up getting a deal a la Wallmark that paid him a guarantee, but gave him the 1-way contract in the 2nd year of the deal.
I, too, am somebody who feels the front office is a few steps ahead of the league. Sure, they are opportunistic, like the Gardiner deal, but the Dzingel signing reflected the need for more pure goal scoring, something they knew and talked about prior to free agency. The Haula trade is exactly the correct usage of assets that had little to no opportunity on this roster (at least for a year or two) to get an offensive 3rd line centerman.
When Gardiner became available and Williams’ salary was freed up, the front office jumped at the opportunity to improve our defensive corps. And make no mistake, this is a clear upgrade. Gardiner is an analytics beast, a true powerplay quarterback, and the perfect type of skater for the system we run. Is he physical? Nope, but the net positives he brings outweigh his downside. And that’s the other part about this front office. They knew we needed powerplay help, and they went out and got it with Dzingel, Haula, and Gardiner. As a benefit, Gardiner also takes fewer penalties than does Faulk, so while we may have PK concerns, we also just might not be on the kill quite as often with this new roster (neither Haula nor Dzingel take a lot of penalties).
So, yeah, I think they had a plan and that plan had multiple permutations, but it was still quite forward thinking and focused on the game we want to play, not the game that we used to play.
Gardiner will be a very interesting experiment. I understand analytics have a role in hockey, but the truth is analytics will always be trumped by video. Gardiner makes a lot of mistakes. Hamilton also makes a lot of mistakes. Now we have two defensemen that make a lot of mistakes. Not good.
I also think Gardiner’s analytics may be buoyed a bit by the fact he has played with several of the most dynamic forwards in hockey the past few years.
NotOpie really gets IT! The depth in thinking is the reason why the LUCK (ie. Planning for many scenarios) allows quick responses for MANY MOVES! Like in chess, when this happens…we respond with THAT!
I’m certain that the COMMITTEE has a “large” list of desired players (who fit certain needs). When someone becomes available, they have a good plan for acquiring him!
If one plan doesn’t work…GO to plan #2…etc!
Look I get the skepticism on Gardiner and his derps. Hell, we all castigated Faulk for his brain cramps. I do have some fear that we might not be as physical, but one thing that happened last season that hadn’t happened in a while was that the team stood up for each other. There were no more one man Hurricane scrums; the boys piled on. So while we’re not going to have any Ferland knockouts, I do think we’ll have a team toughness. Add in our ability to move the puck well and I believe that overcomes some of the other issues.
In the end, it’s all speculation until the puck drops.