Today’s Daily Cup of Joe….is not about goalies!!! I know you’re excited. 🙂
Instead today’s offering is a collection of random Canes notes.
Key to the next step up
I think some people underestimate how close the Hurricanes are to being in Stanley Cup contention and at the same time overestimate how much closer the team can get by improving and making upgrades. While there are certainly teams that have a significantly higher chance of hoisting the Cup than others, much of winning it is just catching lightning in a bottle, finding and riding a hot goalie at the right time of year or just even playing good not great hockey and catching some well-timed breaks.
2019 Stanley Cup winner St. Louis came from as far back as the Hurricanes just to improbably make the playoffs in 2019 and then rode goalie Jordan Binnington who was not anywhere near the top of the depth chart when the season started to a Cup victory.
The Dallas Stars who are the current favorite to emerge in 2020 have ridden a sudden and mostly inexplainable surge in scoring and a backup goalie to within three wins of shiny silver goodness.
And these past couple years are not anomalies.
I think the most common recipe for winning the Stanley Cup is three basic ingredients.
(1) Be good enough to make the playoffs even if the regular season does not go perfectly.
(2) Have enough high-end talent and balance to be able to compete with good teams for most of a seven-game series without needing minor miracles to win individual games.
(3) Get hot.
Noticeably missing from my list is a requirement to be an elite team, a top 4 team or anything roughly in that category.
In that sense, I think the Hurricanes are in range of being able to win a Stanley Cup right now.
The team’s blue line is deep and generally a strength capable of matching up against strong opponents. Mrazek and Reimer have both shown the potential to find hot streaks and be the better goalie games for stretches. And the team finally has some higher-end talent to stock the top of the lineup.
I think the one area where the Canes still have struggle matching up against good teams for series is its second forward line. Because it has always been scoring light and/or because Jordan Staal is maybe finally starting to slow just a bit, I view his line as a capable third line but not more. Teravainen/Aho form two-thirds of a legitimate top scoring line. With Svechnikov is ideal but not required if they can boost a finishing wing as happened with Micheal Ferland early in the 2018-19 season and then with Nino Niederreiter when he first arrived. But the hole right now and also looking back a few years has been the team’s inability to build a second scoring line. Against good teams especially on the road, it can be very difficult to win without a 1-2 punch. Pending a well-timed hot streak in net, I think building a strong scoring second line around Vincent Trocheck or someone else if he does not work is the key missing ingredient right now top put the Hurricanes in or very close to the top tier of teams that have the best chance to win the Stanley Cup in the next few years. Per what I said above, this is not to say that the Hurricanes are necessarily in the top couple teams in the NHL. Rather it is to say that being ranked that high is not a necessary ingredient for winning the Cup.
Potentially time to sell high on Haydn Fleury?
Haydn Fleury entered the 2019-20 season as a player with a high draft pedigree but relatively slow path to even a depth role at the NHL level. He exited the 2019-20 season at a higher level after logging a full year at the NHL level and playing some of his best hockey in the playoffs.
The vocal group of Haydn Fleury fans are probably clamoring for a long-term deal and elevated role for Fleury, but I think there is a bit of a disconnect between what he is and what he might become. First, despite being a fairly new arrival at the NHL level, he is not so much a young rookie with a ton of potential upside physically. Fleury is 24 years old which is just a year younger than veteran Brett Pesce and four years older than Andrei Svechnikov who could still have a bunch of upside left. So while I do think Fleury could have upside as he adds NHL experience, he would reasonably be closer to his ceiling than younger first or second year players. More significant for me is the question of where he rightfully slots on a good team. Again, the optimists have Fleury pegged as a second pairing defenseman. While the potential is there, he has not proven in this role. No doubt Fleury’s game grew in 2019-20, but the vast majority of that occurred while safely sheltered in a third pairing role with a veteran and sometimes maybe underslotted partner. He had a very short stint in the second pairing with Brady Skjei before the season was suspended but was playing in a third pairing role during the playoffs. Could he be ready to take the next step and become a capable top 4 defenseman? Certainly. But are there also players who look very good as a #5 defenseman but just are not capable of being a regular top 4 defenseman? Definitely. Trevor van Riemsdyk is a good example close to home. So at a basic level, the burning question is whether Fleury has peaked as a good young third pairing defenseman who will be overslotted higher or if he can take another step up into the top 4 if given the opportunity.
In addition, to just trying to assess Fleury as a player, there is the matter of impending expansion draft. Even if the Hurricanes cannot re-sign Dougie Hamilton, the protection list, if the Canes go with the standard three defensemen, would seemingly be Slavin, Pesce and Skjei which makes Fleury the player most likely to be lost. If there is a good return to be had, could it make sense to move on a year early?
Finally, trading Fleury right now has the potential to be at his peak value. If he lands on the third pairing side of the fence for his ceiling, then trading him now could be perfectly-timed. Certainly, there are teams/scouts that lean optimistic on Fleury’s untested ceiling. If he gets valued as a top 4 defenseman in trade but does not reach that level, selling now would be wise. Further, as a restricted free agent coming off a season that mostly saw him in the third pairing, his next contract should be reasonable. For a team that needs a #4 defenseman but does not so much have budget for it and whose front office and scouts like Fleury’s upside, he could be a perfect fit between age, contract and upside.
By no means would be aggressively be shopping Fleury right now. Even if he just ends up being a capable #5/#6 defenseman, his next contract should be reasonable for that role. But in a realistic market where one has to trade something of value to get something of equal value, Fleury might be a good balance of being a trade chip that actually has real value but is also a player whose slot could be back-filled reasonably easily.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you buy my case that once you get roughly into range (which I think Canes are either there or close) that winning the Stanley Cup is somewhat of a crap shoot?
2) Do you agree with my assertion that building a capable second scoring line is the single biggest need for the Canes to take one more step up?
3) Would you consider selling high on Fleury in the trade market? What do you see as his ‘proven’ level as of right now, and what do you expect for his ultimate ceiling?
Go Canes!
1. Yeap, totally agree the Canes are within shouting distance of the cup. Just look at the Stars and the Islanders (Islanders almost made it to the finals despite struggling to get into the playoffs). I think Bos was the worst match up the Canes could’ve gotten.
2. I agree, secondary scoring threats are getting increasingly hard to come by on the current roster and having two scoring capable lines is essential to getting through the ups and downs of a long season and then creating match up headaches in the playoffs.
There is potential for rebound within the ranks. RDZ can score and he was beginning to show signs of life in the playoffs, Trocheck could take a big step forward with an off season and a team training camp, but it would be good to add another scoring capable piece.
3. I am not convinced, not because I’m a “Fleury fan” per se, but if you look at the cost and options, if you trade away Fleury you have 3 legit top 4 d men but behind them a pretty unreliable and pricy pair of veterans. I guess if the Canes had a chance at trading away Gardner (ideally) or Skjei, I would strongly prefer that over trading Fleury, who can probably be resigned somewhere in the 1.5 million range with a solid third pairing capabilities and some upside.
So, again, it depends on the cost and the return. If this is a “dump trade” like Skinner’s, I’d much rahter see a real salary dump, like Gardner, but if it is a trade to get value e.g. a scoring forward, then Fleury could fit the bill.
Definitely wouldn’t ‘dump’ Fleury like the Skinner situation. He is a good player and his next contract should be fair even for a third pairing role.
I just question whether he is more than a good #5. That is replaceable, so if I could get full trade value (basically a comparable level scoring wing) from a team that grades Fleury as a young, up-and-coming top 4 defenseman, I consider it.
I think you left out something very important in the keys to winning a Stanley Cup. Be tough enough to make it physically through the playoffs.
All the teams in the conference finals were tough, strong teams. Yes, they have high end skill players. But the smaller guys left are struggling to make an impact. Tampa Bay should be the favorite to win based upon their talent, but both Point and Kucherov are pretty beat up. Dallas is no lightweight and they will continue to take a beating in this series. The scales may be tipped toward Dallas. Barzal dropped way off in the coference finals as TB’s big boys finished him regularly. If the Canes are serious about winning a Cup they are going to have to get stronger up front. Skill guys are important, but big guys are as well. Canes have Staal and nothing else.
No chance I trade Fleury unless something very nice is on the other end of that trade. Fleury looked like a top 4 guy in the playoffs. He’s going to be inexpensive as well for a few years. Seeing where Skjei and Fleury end up after the next season will be interesting. One of them, or mabye both, will be exposed in the expansion draft.
With regard to getting bigger/tougher, I do not think today’s NHL has room for players who have that as their only contribution. Players must be able to play and skate today’s NHL game to be useful.
Because of the injury risk that sure enough submarined his 2020-21 season, the Canes were smart to pass on re-signing Micheal Ferland, but they really miss the role he filled as big, nasty and dangerous but also with hockey ability.
One potentially available player who intrigues me in Josh Anderson from Columbus. He is 6-3 and 220-ish like Ferland plays a physical, rugged game but also legitimate hockey ability. He is a restricted free agent but supposedly Columbus is considering shopping him (who knows if that is true).
Two questions on Anderson are what his next salary will be and where exactly he slots. On the low end, he looks like an upgrade to McGinn in the middle of the lineup who is a bit bigger/more dangerous playing same style and with a slight upgrade offensively. But on the high end, could he finish enough to be a complementary power forward on the 1st or 2nd line like Ferland?
The difference between those 2 roles is significant. I think ideally you try to fill those 3rd-line-ish slots from within for low cost. But there could be some budget to add a player if he is truly a top 6 forward who brings a different element and equally important can produce on the score sheet.
Potentially the last two Conn Smyth winners are bigger, rugged centermen in Ryan O’Reilly and Jamie Benn. Those two guys drive their teams. In ’06 I recall a similar player on the Canes who led them to victory. The Canes seem to draft 5’11” guys with skill who weigh 170-180lbs.
While I would agree players like Patrick Maroon aren’t much help in the regular season, they earn their money in the playoffs. Maroon, Goodrow, and Coleman make life difficult on smaller players like Aho, Teravainen, Barzal, etc. All four teams in the Conference Finals had some beef. They play tight checking game like the Canes, but are a lot harder to play against. Maroon in particular stands out. Big, tough and smart. Stays out of the box for the most part unlike dumb kids like Nick Ritchie in Boston.
Getting to the playoffs is skating and skill. Winning in the playoffs is that plus rugged players that can play a tough game.
With the core of young talent under good contracts, Canes should be considered in a window over next 4 years to compete for a Cup. Agree that a second scoring line would do most to improve this team.
I think if the right offer came along, Fleury certainly could be traded, especially if it helped land a top 6 scoring winger. But even if Fleury is still a 3rd pairing guy, he’ll be affordable and honestly expendable in the expansion draft if it comes to that. He easily outplayed Gardiner all season long. Still a lot of question marks on Skjei for me.
But I think to your point, it all depends on how the organization views whether Fleury has hit his ceiling or has room to grow.
LTS articulated my thoughts exactly. The canes lack of toughness was exemplified when their captain got leveled against BOS and went off with a potential concussion after a high hit.
The canes had no response, which in the hockey world, is like throwing in the towel.
Fleury is playing well, he’s big, and is physically healthy. While not a natural enforcer, he has the body type to survive and advance in playoff hockey.
You would think we’d be a heavier team past Staal – we played heavier in the playoffs last year – the series against WAS was a war of attrition. Nino, Martinook, Foegele, McGinn, and now Svetch: they can all play heavier than they did this postseason. We need to rekindle the magic.
As for Fleury, I’m clearly a fanboy and love the steps he took this season and believe his ceiling is higher than Matt does – hey, we’re here to disagree, too – but I’d be open to trading anyone for the right deal.
With Edmondson gone now, he’s probably the defenseman we have most willing to hit people and that’s still important especially this time of year. That would need replacing with someone who plays a physical game. If we did trade him, I would like to see us find a younger player with reasonable upside – someone like Anthony Cirelli, who I would target on TBY, who will need help on defense next year.
1. For the love of Pete, please don’t call it a “crap shoot”. The game is called “craps” and the correct phrase is “craps shooting”. You are shooting craps. Shooting crap is simply messy.
Okay, yes, making the playoffs makes any team a contender for the Cup. That is has been proved multiple times in Cup history. That said, winning the Cup is very difficult and it is not surprising to me that there are more multipe winners – I think once you win it once it gets easier. But a lesser team than this year’s Canes made it to the ECF lst season – this year’s team gets knocked out in the first round. Not entirely random, but definitely an amount of “luck”.
2. For the past two season we have had too much “grit and grind” – McGinn, Foegele, McKegg, Manulainen, etc. – and not enough players with offensive potential. We have had the curse/blessing of having one of the best defensive centers in the league (should be a second line) who has limited offensive touch (3rd line) – what do you do with that? But we definitely need more scoring than just Aho, Turbo, Svech and presumably Necas. I am not sure what it will take -but a stronger center presence, whether Trocheck stepping up his game, or another piece makes a difference because we have scoring n the pipeline with Suzuki and Bokk.
3. I don’t think trading Fleury now will be selling high. He is just beginning to move up his breakout curve. I can’t see us getting much for him unless he is part of a package with a higher-end player. And I can see him continuing to develop into a solid 4/5 players who brings Eddy grit with offensive touch – plus a much more confident ability to move the puck out of the d-zone. You like talking Tulsky – I think Fleury is much better Tulsky player than a number of our 4M+ D-men. But if we trade him one-up, we are looking at not more than a “replacement part”.