After a solid win on Monday in Columbus that was one of the team’s soundest of the season even if not as spectacular as a few other wins, all seems right in the Caniac Nation again. The dip was overstated anyway with only three losses and two of those being decent or better efforts that netted an overtime loss point.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers an eclectic set of musings on the current state of the Canes.
The importance of buy in from young players
Getting young offensive players up to at least a competent level in terms of defense and attention to detail is critical to a team’s success. Jeff Skinner is the textbook example of a player who enters the NHL at a young age at an incredibly advanced level offensively but deficient defensively. Not all players like that are destined to round into near-Selke form defensively, but at the same time it is absolutely critical that players like that make steady progress defensively. If they do not, it is completely possible (and happens regularly) that high end scorers can still manage to be a negative in terms of winning hockey games.
In that regard, I think Brind’Amour’s single greatest strength as a coach is getting talented young players to buy in. Each of Sebastian Aho, Andei Svechnikov and Martin Necas entered the NHL with exactly the imbalance I mentioned above where they were NHL-ready offensively almost out of the chute but were nowhere close to that same level defensively. The early version of Aho had a tendency to float a bit in the defensive end more so covering a general area than marking a specific assignment. Version 1.0 of Svechnikov was prone to far too many obstruction type penalties using his stick when he failed to react and move his feet soon enough. He also had a tendency to make a high volume of ‘probably work’ passes in his own end and the neutral zone. Necas just looked to be in a bit over his head in terms of sorting things out behind the forecheck as a center at the NHL level.
But fast forward to today and all three players have made progress. Sebastian Aho has rounded into form as a competent two-way center who is not a risk or liability against other teams’ best scorers. Andrei Svechnikov, while not perfect, has cut down on his stick infractions and has made good strides in terms of managing the puck. And Martin Necas has learned that his skating ability is a defensive ability to backchecking and providing support for defensemen.
By no means is Svechnikov or Necas’ rounding out complete, but what stands out to me more than anything else is both players’ buy in and willingness to do the work. Both are smart hockey players with more than their fair share of skating ability and other skills. Combined with their willingness, both players are better than they were initially and figure to be even better down the road. That is a credit to them as players, but I also think a subtle but yet critical element of Rod Brind’Amour’s success as a coach who is excelling at the people management/relationship part of his job.
And when you have young superstars buying in already, it becomes that much easier to get future young players to fall in line without a struggle.
The rise of Martin Necas and the lineup options it creates
While admitting that there are other candidates, I think Marin Necas have said that Martin Necas has a reasonable claim to being the team’s best offensive forward in March. His unmistakable chemistry with Sebastian Aho has been something to watch. The two are clearly on the same page and their combination of speed and skill is problematic for defenses even 2-on-2 on the rush. In a season that has seen Vincent Trocheck launch as a Hurricane, Nino Niederreiter refind his power forward scoring gear and Jordan Staal find a significantly higher gear offensively, Necas is maybe most significant. Right now, the lineup is a little bit thin with Teuvo Teravainen out and Vincent Trocheck’s absence taking away a scoring line, but when at full strength Brind’Amour suddenly has a bunch more options. As much as Aho/Teravainen have chemistry, Aho/Necas right now seems more potent. Could that free up Teravainen to play with Trocheck? Once the team has two scoring lines again, could Brind’Amour move Niederreiter around a bit riding hot hands to maximize his scoring chances and production? If Aho/Necas are enough to drive high-end scoring on their own, how would a team also defend Teravainen/Trocheck/Svechnikov behind them?
The shorter version is that the healthy version of the Carolina Hurricanes is suddenly so much deeper than only a year ago. I count seven forwards (Aho, Necas, Niederreiter, Trocheck, Svechnikov, Teravainen, Staal) who are legitimate top 6 forwards offensively in 2020-21 (given Teravainen credit for past years’ work). With Fast, McGinn and Foegele bringing a different element and chipping in good depth scoring, the Hurricanes are suddenly much deeper. The Hurricanes have reached the point where the real proof comes int he playoffs when scoring is more difficult, but the situation looks promising.
The silver lining in Andrei Svechnikov’s (temporary) struggles
On a team where things are obviously going well at the top level (the standings), Andrei Svechnikov has hit a little bit of a rough patch at least in terms of scoring with only seven points in his last 15 games. After tracking at or above a point per game pace during the front part of the season, Svechnikov is now on pace for a more modest 61 points in an 82-game season. The difference between 80 points and 60 points could be significant for Svechnikov’s next contract to be inked this summer. Before signing his second contract for $8.5 million per year, Aho had collected 83 points. Svechnikov figured to be in line for a similar deal or possibly even more when he was flying high and seemingly bound for at least 80 points. If he instead finishes with an impressive but significantly more modest 60-65 points, could his next contract be within a range of $7 to $8 million? With the Hurricanes now a salary cap team, every dollar matters in terms of being able to keep the current group together and ideally still have a small amount of wiggle room available to add a depth player or two if needed.
So in that regard, the perfect storm might actually be a tamped down regular season by Svechnikov offensively with him finding a higher gear in the playoffs when it really matters.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Is it fair to say that at least early indications suggest that Aho’s chemistry with Necas might actually be greater than with Teravainen or Svechnikov?
2) With so much more higher-end scoring options all of a sudden, how would you build the forward lines if/when the team gets healthy and has everyone available?
3) To what do you credit the buy in of the Hurricanes’ young scoring forwards? How would you divvy up credit between the character of the players themselves, Brind’Amour’s coaching/people management and the scouting team getting character to go with talent?
4) Is Svechnikov due to find a higher gear scoring-wise any day now and claw back to a point per game pace, or might the Hurricanes luck out a bit in that his modest scoring increase tamps down the price of his next contract?
Go Canes!
You have to give RBA credit for stressing the defensive side of the puck with our young players. I know this is off-topic a bit, but I think a bit part of why Nino has bounced back is because of how noticeably better (to me) his defense has been. He is working very hard on defense this year and his improved play there has led to more confidence in his offense.
The plays Necas is making with Aho are fun to watch and very tough to defend. He is going to continue to get better on both sides of the puck. It gives us tremendous flexibility like you’ve suggested. We’re going to need it to get past TBY.
But your question #1 only reinforces the fact that the common denominator to all the comparisons is Aho. I’m waiting to see one or two of these players develop the same level of chemistry with someone not named Aho, ie., Necas-Sveth, or Necas-TT, or TT-Trocheck, or Sveth-Trocheck. That’s when we’ll know we really have elite offensive depth. I think it’s coming soon.
Agree about Niederriter, but it’s not just on defense. On offense he is playing a much grittier game. Instead of always trying to set up for a shot, he goes straight to the boards to work. He clears room for Aho and whoever is on the other wing. Nino has found his game this year and guess what…the pucks are going in the net!
I have similar thoughts as dmiller. As it comes to buy in and character, Brind’Amour should get credit for both. I believe he’s had a big effect on how the owner sees the game. As far as buy in goes, it starts with the vets. Having proven players like Staal and Justin Williams in 100% filters down to the young guys. Aho’s father is a GM in Finland if I’m not mistaken, so Aho came preprogramed to see the game as more than just about himself. The signings by Waddell have been character first guys like Martinook and Fast. These are the guys that help you win championships.
Back to Aho…As dmiller points out all of this is about Sebastian Aho. I wouldn’t say it’s as much about chemistry as skill. If you are a highly skilled hockey player, you want to play with Sebastian Aho. He is going to make you look very good. A month or so ago it was “wow look at the chemsitry between Aho and Svechnikov.” Now it’s Necas. Offensively, Aho stirs the drink on this team. What they have needed as someone to drive secondary scoring and that’s where they need Svechnikov to come into his own.
Svechnikov will break out of his slump, but you have to question if he’s a guy that can drive a line on his own, or does he need a centerman to do that work? Time will tell. Maybe he is better off with Trocheck, but how much of Trocheck’s success was playing off of Necas? I’m not worried about his contract. They will get it done. As contracts go the guy that might save the Canes a bunch of cash is Nedeljkovic. If he keeps on this trajectory and becomes a true #1, you could see both Reimer and Mrazek gone. Sign a capable vet as a backup and save some cash.
1. While it is true that the common thread in those duos is Aho, the other factor is that Necas, Turbo, Svech all have serious playmaking capabilities. So I would say that any excellent playmaker that lines up with Aho is going to create great synergy – and Nino plays the role of space-maker, although a fair number of his goals have come on the rush.
Which of 3 high-end playmaking wings to pair with Aho is a nice problem to have.
2. I am going to pass on lines – with so many options to consider, it can be quite dynamic.
3. Brining in high-quality players has always been a hallmark of the Canes – under Rutherford, then Francis and now Waddell. You don’t teach character to a young player – he has it (and can develop it further) or he doesn’t. Tripp told the story last night of Necas in his first season learning on a plane ride back to Raleigh that he was being returned to Europe? What does he do? – he thanks every person on board that plane for being there. That’s character. Both Svech and Necas work hard and put in the extra time in practice – they are sponges that absorb knowledge, shift by shift and listening to coaches and other players. Every player on the team has quality character – which is what makes RBA’s player-focussed style of coaching work.
4. In no way do I want to see Svech’s scoring suppressed as a means to limit his contract amount. You don’t pay him for what he did this year, but for what you expect him to be doing 2, 3, 4 years out. And he has a right to expect that.
Ok, I really hope Matt is ok! it has been 3 weeks since the last post. I miss reading everyone’s comments.
I really hope everything is ok and go canes!
I was wondering the same—hoping Matt is ok. His analysis and the comments here always made the games that much more enjoyable.