Based on nearly a decade of lack of success in converting a non-playoff season into a playoff season, the process probably seems incredibly hard to many Hurricanes fans right now. But in fact, with the parity in today’s NHL and the randomness with injuries, hot goalies and other things, the odds of converting a playoff miss to a playoff make are not actually that daunting. Right now, 8 of the 14 teams that missed the playoffs for the 2016-17 season are currently slotted to join the playoff fray in April. Similarly, 7 of 14 teams that missed the 2016 playoffs, made them in 2017. The small sample size and non-qualified math says that more than half of the teams that missed the past two playoffs rebounded to make them the following year.
Based on the fact that these rebounds seem so common but also so far out of reach for the Hurricanes, today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a quick comparison to a few of the teams that are rebounding in 2017-18.
Winnipeg Jets
To find a team on the rebound, one needs to look no further than Sunday’s opponent. After being in the lottery drawing last summer, the Winnipeg Jets are one of the best rebound stories in the league. In watching the Jets on Sunday, a couple things jump out as key to their success. First and foremost is that a team that has been maligned in net to nearly the same degree as the Hurricanes has suddenly found a solution. Connor Hellebuyck is having a solid 2017-18 season, and it is making all the difference in the world. The other thing that jumps out about the Jets is scoring depth. Winning Patrik Laine who is the closest thing to Alexander Ovechkin since Ovechkin himself in terms of raw goal scoring surely helps, but the Jets boast four players with 20 goals and four more with 10 goals. The team is suddenly deep and talented offensively.
The Hurricanes have improved in terms of forward depth, but watching the Jets make it clear just how much less raw scoring the Hurricanes have in their group. In addition, a goaltending break through like Hellebuyck’s is yet to be realized.
New Jersey Devils
The Hurricanes won on their third try against the New Jersey Devils. Whereas some teams including the Hurricanes were trendy picks to rise up in 2017-18, almost no one expected anything from the Devils. Yet, coming down the final stretch, the Devils are still in a playoff spot. The formula for success always includes multiple ingredients, but two jump out to me when considering the Devils. First is leadership from the very top of the roster. Taylor Hall is having a season that will garner some consideration for the Hart Trophy, and goalie Cory Schneider provides a steady presence and stability behind a young team. Second is a very clear identity. Through about 10 minutes of watching the Devils play, what their game looks like is crystal clear. The Devils play in straight lines that advances the puck forward up the ice even if it means pitching it to the end wall. From there, they forecheck as aggressively as any team in the league quite often getting all three forwards below the face-off circles when trying to take back the puck. There is some risk to this aggressive style, but the Devils seem to recover quickly when the opponent does advance the puck and when they do not, the Devils are in position to quickly convert forecheck turnovers into scoring chances.
By my estimation, the Hurricanes have yet to really develop a consistent identity of what good Canes hockey looks like as the Devils have. They have stretches where they win with scoring outbursts, stretches where they grind out defensive wins and fits and starts defensively, but nothing I would really characterize as an identity. In addition, Cory Schneider fits under the ‘There’s that goaltending thing again’ category.
Philadelphia Flyers
Two things jump out when I consider the Flyers and their rise from playoff miss to near certain playoff make in 2018. First is the leadership of a high-powered line that seems to put the team on its back. The top players in Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek lead the way. That trio is averaging 70 points each. The second thing that jumps out about the Flyers is their ability to find grooves and win in bunches. The Flyers have two winning streaks of six games and three more winning streaks of four games.
Seemingly unable to take too much of a good thing or maybe too prone to exhale and let up, the Hurricanes have only a single winning streak of four games and another of three games. Other than those two short bursts, the Hurricanes have not won more than two straight through the rest of 67 games of one step forward and then one step back.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree with my key components of success for the three rebound teams highlighted above?
2) When the Hurricanes do rebound and make the playoffs, what do you think will be the top one or two key drivers?
3) Who wants to take a try at one or two of the other eight teams currently slotted to from playoff miss to playoff make this year? (List is Dallas Stars, Las Vegas Knights, Los Angeles Kings, Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers)
Go Canes!
1. Winnipeg- they had a bunch of talent last year but underachieved due to poor goal tending. They have decent goal tending this year and they have taken off.
NJ&Philly- they both had talent on their roster last year but it wasnt able to come together because of injuries, goal tending, and/or chemistry. Both have been aggressive in adding the right pieces to speed up their “rebuilds” and in some cases subtracting talent to make them better. Not getting Hall for Faulk has to be GMRF’s 2nd biggest blunder. #1 being Darling.
The crazy thing about NJ is they have Hall at 70 points and then then next best scorer is 41 then 3 30 point scorers.
2. Goal tending- has to be middle of road. Which isnt that crazy to ask.
Scoring- we need, not like to have, an upgrade to the top line. We have 1 top line potential forward, 3 2nd liners, 3 3rd liners, 3 4th liners and a couple of 13th forwards. We need at least one more 1st liner (either a center or a strong winger) and Skinner becoming more consistent. Turbo is a fringe top liner as he is coming out of his shell. Hopefully his effort continues the current levels. We have enough ELCs coming through over the next 3 years to afford an expensive top liner or two.
Subtracting a couple of current players and adding a big hitter would be nice. Speed is the future but a phyiscal team really kills this team.
3.
Dallas- under performed last year because of injuries to the defense. Were aggressive in FA to make them better.
LVK- They picked the right dudes that just play well together.
LAK- under performed last year. They are playing more to their talent level this season
TBL- under performed due to injury to Stamkos. Did the rest of the talent just mail it in because their star went down? Also Yzerman continues to pull off gems to make them better. Trading Drouin was a great move.
FLO- they are getting better as their young core talent continues to get better. They also had a bunch of key injuries to Barkov and Huberdeau
A lot of the teams are just healthier than last year with their top line guys.
1. Winnipeg is probably a good comparison to the Canes current status. The Jets have built primarily through the draft and they drafted well. Guys like Wheeler, Scheifele, Enstrom, Ehlers, etc. were brought along but they always fell short of expectations and were looked at as underachieving. Drafting Laine put them over the top but still, the assumption was there was enough talent prior to his arrival but for some reason they couldn’t get it done and always seemed to be just outside the playoffs looking in. The Canes are in a sort of similar situation, building mainly through the draft although I’d say they haven’t done quite as well with the draft picks as Winnipeg has done with their selections. Maybe Necas will be the next Laine, and that makes the difference. I guess we’ll find out next season.
2. Score more, give up fewer goals. It’s like losing weight, burn more calories than you take in. Simple.
3. If you mean miss the playoffs, I’d say Florida. For them the good news is they’re on a hot streak and have three games in hand. Bad news is the odds are you’re going to cool off and to make up the three games, have to play like 15 games in 35 days or something like that. I expect them to burn out a week from the end of the regular season.
1/ The other huge factor for each of these three teams was Lottery Luck – WIN got Laine, NJD got Hischier, and PHL got Patrick. Hard to overstate how much that’s helped WIN.
2/ Goaltending and more offense. gocanes mentioned Darling … as for Hellebuyck, he had a decent rookie year as the backup (26 games, 2.35 G/A, .918 s%), then fell off a cliff (a little like Darling has) as a full-time #1 starter last year (56, 2.89, .907) before rebounding this year (54, 2.40, .922).
The more I watch Darling the more I appreciate how much better Cam Ward is at playing and moving the puck, which is something that CAR emphasizes in our D-strategy that CHI didn’t. I think adjusting to playing the puck more factors into his overall level of play by affecting his overall level of certainty in decision-making, which trickles to the rest of his game making it more difficult for the defense to play well in front of him. In other words, this has been a big adjustment for Darling that Hellebuyck didn’t have; we are at risk of giving up on him too soon. If Hellebuyck can bounce back, so can Darling.
Seems like there’s a generational talent or two at each draft, but not often more than that. It’s incredible to think you have to draft first or second to get a top (very top) tier player, but the three you mention were all #2 picks. It’s probably a bit of a stretch but the Flyers wouldn’t be making the playoffs without Patrick’s emergence half way through the season as a true second line center – which would have been unlikely for anyone picked lower in the draft.
Hischier and Patrick are the only two players from last year’s draft that have played a full season in the NHL. Matthews, Laine, and Matthew Tkachuk (#6) were the only ones to do that from the 2016 draft. All have been difference-makers from Day 1.
Lottery luck matters.
While I agree that lottery luck can make a huge difference when elite players are available (Laine and Matthews from 2016 and McDavid and Eichel from 2015), I would not so much attribute New Jersey or Philadelphia’s current year success to the draft.
Hischier who is on target for 50 points is really just a depth scorer in an absolutely tremendous situation playing next to Hall. Put him on another line, and he looks like depth scoring. The same is even more true for Patrick who is learning on the job somewhat like Staal did years ago with 20 points in 57 games.
I think NJ and Phi are really about the power of elite players who find a rhythm to drag an entire team with them regardless of the rest of the team. That has been the Pens model for years, was same for Hawks run and is to some degree true for the Lightning.
Well yes, but that neglects to mention that Hischier is still 2nd in the team in scoring. No they are where they are, because they stole Taylor Hall from the Oilers and that move paid huge dividends. I would say that this was the sole example of a trade that was a bigger theft than taking Teravainen from the Blackhawks, even though Adam Larsson isn’t that bad. The Devils might be (but probably wouldn’t) be where they are without Hischier. They would be nowhere close to where they are without Hall. I wonder if there will be a star available for that kind of price this offseason? I got a nice All-Star right-shot defenseman ready to go the other way.
Interestingly, the Devils 3rd leading scorer Jesper Bratt was a 6th round pick in 2016, so they got a nice steal in the draft of late as well.
When talking rebuilds, you also want to look at who was given up. Vancouver traded Schneider to New Jersey a few years back for Bo Horvat. I think nobody would complain for essentially trading Bo Horvat and Adam Larsson for Corey Schneider and Taylor Hall. But again, it’s not like we don’t have trade chips to play with in the offseason. And its all about finding the right player to fit your system at the right price. So it’s not nearly as simple as CapFriendly would have you believe.
As for Philadelphia, well their rebuild can be nearly entirely attributed to drafting Claude Giroux 12 years ago, and trading Jeff Carter to the Blue Jackets for Voracek AND the pick that became Sean Couturier. That happened years ago.
Short of it is, these rebuilds take time. Lots of time. And we have a lot of pieces that we’re cultivating, who knows who will become the next Giroux, who didn’t hit 50 points until his fourth NHL season at age 23? (Just kidding, we all do, it’s Aho, get ready all, the ascension is coming)
Interesting thread and comments.
Fogger makes good points. The combination of a foundational player, a steal from a trade or from the lower rounds, and the right system are all needed. Also, last year everyone would have argued that the team to use as a model was Edmonton–one superstar and one near elite player, a goalie who was developing into a strong number 1, and pieces to trade for more needs. Then this season happened.
I am not sure if I would take McDavid/Draisaitl or Hall/Hischier going forward. In fact, New Jersey may be next season’s Edmonton–they may even fade this season.
I do know that Aho/Teravainen/Necas (and I predict Necas’ countryman Martin Kaut from this draft) may well be our Giroux/Voracek/Couturier in 2020.
We have seen the potential of Hanifin and (this last month) Pesce. That is also essential to making the next level. Look at Philly, if we had 2 d-man scoring like Gostisbeher and Provorov, we might not need another scoring forward.
Again, I am with Fogger–much more success is about to begin.
I agree with your assessment of things so will spare everyone any further elaboration. Actually, all the contributors today have pretty good ideas.
I think the absolute best way to put the Canes in perspective is to compare them to other teams like this.
Even when Winnipeg got lucky in that lottery they boasted one of the best prospect pools in the league – so their offensive depth has been some time coming. Shame that the Canes could have had Ehlers (or Nylander) instead of Fleury… Hopefully Fleury will prove to be good down the line to not make that pick look so bad.
New Jersey I totally agree with your assessment. From a talent standpoint the only things I think they have over the Canes are Taylor Hall (in Hischier’s rookie season is he really more dangerous than Aho for us?) and of course Corey Schneider. Whether their success over the Canes in the standings this year is more 1 than the other I don’t know – but it does highlight two areas the Canes are short in. A legitimate starting goalie (Schneider to me is an anomaly though I consider him elite in his position not many teams have that) and a legit top line winger.
Philly I think is in the most comparable position to the Canes. The defense is growing and relying on young guys – their goaltending position is a bit of a question mark if not better off than the Canes though. Once again the difference that clearly stands out to me is the fact they have Giroux, Voracek and now Couturier up front. Top line players of which the Canes might not even have 1 (Aho probably firmly a top line player by next year).
So to me as much as goaltending could be singled out as the problem – I am going to keep beating the woodshed and saying it is the offense that is the problem. I think teams with elite offenses make micro analyzing the goaltending and defensive issues less of a need because you spend so much time in the other teams zone. I mean look at Pittsburgh’s d-corps last year from their cup run – pretty abysmal at times with the injuries but when you have Malkin, Crosby and Kessel on your top 3 lines it’s easy to overlook how Ron Hainsey was at times their #1 dman during the playoffs with like a 40% CF.