The Carolina Hurricanes training camp roster that started at 59 players still stands at 53 players heading into Friday’s practice. The only cuts thus far have been six of the seven players slated for Canadian juniors in 2017-18. To no surprise, Jake Bean is sticking around longer as the lone Canadian junior player still in training camp trying to win an NHL roster spot. The players returned to juniors were WHLers Hudson Elynuik (Spokane) Morgan Geekie (Tri-City), Stelio Mattheos (Brandon) and Brenden De Jong (Portland) and OHLers Jeremy Helvig (Kingston) and Noah Carroll (Sault Ste. Marie).
The group is likely to become significantly smaller between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. The Hurricanes depart Saturday afternoon for a nicely-spaced three-game road trip, and the Charlotte Checkers’ training camp starts at 10am on Monday. Those combined events make this weekend the annual I-40 commute and move in weekend for the AHLers.
I would expect the NHL roster to be cut to about 35 players which will keep players still in consideration for roster slots, bring along a couple extras to help fill the lineup and give the Checkers roughly a full roster for its early preseason games. If Peters chooses to get down to business early in terms of focusing on the NHL core, the cuts could take the roster as low as 28-30 players.
The Hurricanes have 22 players either on one-way contracts or nearly certain to stay in the NHL despite being on a two-way contract, so by default those players stay. That leaves 8-10 slots for players who started training camp penciled in for Charlotte plus a few wild cards.
I think the situation is reasonably straightforward at the goalie and defenseman positions, but what Coach Bill Peters does with the forwards is worth watching and will provide an early indication of his depth chart at the forward positions right now.
Here is my breakdown of how it should all shake out tomorrow or Saturday.
The oddballs
All of Martin Necas, Jake Bean and Gregory Hofmann are likely to hang around longer, as none are likely in consideration for Charlotte. If he does not continue his rise and win an NHL roster slot, Necas seems most likely to land in the Czech Republic or Canadian juniors which will cause his entry-level contract to slide forward a year. Bean is not eligible to play in the AHL this season because of age/Canadian junior rules, so I think he will stay at the NHL level until the very end to absorb as much higher-level competition as possible before ultimately returning to juniors. And Hofmann is not signed, so his tryout will continue in Raleigh. If he impresses, he could earn either an AHL or NHL contract.
Stays: Martin Necas, Jake Bean, Gregory Hofmann.
Cuts: —
Goalies
With Scott Darling dinged up but likely to play Friday, I would expect the Hurricanes to take an extra goalie on the road trip as an insurance policy. That means two of Alex Nedeljkovic, Callum Booth and Jeremy Smith will be headed for Charlotte. I have no idea if the team will reward veteran Jeremy Smith with a little more time with the big club or prefer to get him started on day one in Charlotte.
This one could go any which direction, but I will guess that the team keeps Jeremy Smith around a bit longer to work with the team and goalie coach Mike Bales since he is effectively the #3 goalie if someone is injured.
Stays: Jeremy Smith.
Cuts: Alex Nedeljkovic, Callum Booth.
Defensemen
The group ultimately headed to Charlotte is mostly a veteran group not likely in competition for an NHL slot to start the 2017-18 season. I would expect the Hurricanes to keep Trevor Carrick who is in the mix for the #6 and/or #7 defense slot, and Roland McKeown makes sense to keep another right shot for practice pairings. Past those two there is a chance that another veteran AHLer from Jake Chelios, Philip Samuelsson, Dennis Robertson or Brenden Kichton is rewarded with a little more ice time with the NHL group.
Stays: Trevor Carrick, Roland McKeown.
Cuts: Dennis Robertson, Philip Samuelsson, Jake Chelios, Brenden Kichton, Josh Wesley, Keegan Kanzig, Tyler Ganly.
Forwards
This group is much more wide open and harder to figure out. There are so many higher-end prospects of all varieties who could still push for an NHL slot especially if an injury makes room. Best guess is that Peters keeps a slightly larger group than necessary to continue evaluation, but how aggressive he is with cuts here will tell how rapidly he wants to shift the focus to 90/10 in terms of getting ready for opening day versus evaluating options.
Player by player on the tough decisions
Patrick Brown: He is a relatively known quantity with a decent amount of NHL action, and he played on Tuesday. He is also the reigning captain of the Checkers. My best guess is that he is sent to Charlotte early to lead the young group.
Phil Di Giuseppe: He has not been bad thus far in preseason, but he has not finished even with some good chances and has not impressed to the point where he must stay. The advantage of sending him to Charlotte early is that it can be easier to clear waivers at this early juncture when teams are mostly inwardly focused. I think he stays for now out of respect after being forced to sign a one-way deal.
Warren Foegele: I still think he has the potential to bring young legs and more offense to the fourth line and that he will get a bit longer to make a case.
Julien Gauthier: I think he is ultimately bound for Charlotte, but it is a wild guess as to whether he heads there now or gets a bit longer in Raleigh first.
Janne Kuokkanen: I had him as a top dark horse entering training camp, but that title now goes to Martin Necas. He could get a little more time in Raleigh but could also depart early.
Andrew Poturalski: He has seen a good amount of ice time which suggests the coaching staff is taking notice, but his skill set is similar to that of Derek Ryan’s, and Ryan is killing it right now. I think he made a favorable impression but likely departs on the first bus to Charlotte.
Nicolas Roy: I have not seen a report on when he might be cleared to play. If he is close, I think there is a good chance that he stays to get into a preseason game. If not, he could be on the first bus to Charlotte.
Aleksi Saarela: As a relative unknown making his first appearance at PNC Arena, my wild guess is that the team keeps him, so the coaching staff can gain a bit more familiarity.
Lucas Wallmark: He has played well. Despite the fact that there really is no room for him as a center, I would be surprised to see him be part of the first cuts based on his play. He gets at least a few more days.
Valentin Zykov: He is a bit in the same boat as Roy. If he is close to ready, perhaps the team tries to get him into one of the upcoming preseason games, though I could easily see him just starting fresh in Charlotte on day one.
Wild guesses for what happens
Cuts (in order of mostly likely to be cut): Nick Schilkey, Clark Bishop, Spencer Smallman, Steven Lorentz, Sergey Tolchinsky, Andrew Miller — Valentin Zykov, Andrew Poturalski, Julien Gauthier.
Stays: (in order of most likely to stay): Lucas Wallmark, Warren Foegele, — Phil Di Giuseppe, Janne Kuokkanen, Nicolas Roy, Aleksi Saarela.
Who is left?
Goalies (3): Scott Darling, Cam Ward, Jeremy Smith.
Defensemen (10): Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Haydn Fleury, Klas Dahlbeck, Trevor Carrick, Jake Bean, Roland McKeown.
Forwards (21): Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen, Victor Rask, Justin Williams, Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan, Lee Stempniak, Joakim Nordstrom, Marcus Kruger, Josh Jooris Brock McGinn, Lucas Wallmark, Martin Necas, Warren Foegele, Janne Kuokkanen, Aleksi Saarela, Gregory Hofmann, Nicolas Roy, Phil Di Giuseppe.
Most interesting will be the cuts at forward. The large group of 21 that I kept could easily be pared down by 3-5 more depending on Peters’ sense of urgency.
Who else wants to go out on a limb and take a wild guess at the next round of cuts?
Go Canes!
I would agree with the cuts although I favor having Ned or Booth in the 3rd goalie slot.
Also Necas can play in the AHL next season and have his contract slide a year. As long as the player doesn’t turn 20 during the year and plays under 10 NHL games, their contract slides (AHL games don’t count). Necas would turn 19 so we are good. Just a thought for AHL consideration for Necas.
I feel like I mostly understand the whole waivers, entry-level contract, juniors requirement, etc. stuff then every 3 months a slightly different scenario comes up.
I would have figured that 10 games in the AHL counts as a year on his contract for Necas. If it does not, Charlotte becomes a more viable option.
I was under the impression that a Canadian Junior team had his rights so he couldn’t play for another North American hockey team outside of the NHL.
All this has me thinking in a slightly different direction …
I read this week in an interview with BP that this could be the first year since he got here that another team will claim a Canes player off waivers. My guess is that the odds of PDG clearing waivers even now are a coin-flip at best.
Generally, my takeaway from camp so far, based on comments made by BP and RF and from the play on the ice, is that our prospects are further along than we realized and the risk of promoting the best performers (Necas, for example) is way lower than anyone expected.
Given the surprising play of both DRyan and Necas, and the sense that Wallmark is ready, and that others are very close behind, I would not be surprised one bit if GMRF made a deal before the end of camp to clear the logjam a little. I could see Stempniak, perhaps, being traded as a longer-term rental to make room for a younger (and cheaper) prospect with higher-end potential. The risk-reward of doing something like that might fall into the “acceptable” category.
Yup, I’ve also posited that Stempniak could end up as trade bait. Not because of his performance or contributions, but because of the staff’s assumption that one of the other players (youngsters) is bringing the same or more. Therein, however, lies the rub. Stempniak is a relatively reliable 40 point guy throughout his career.
To me the two young guys with the best shot at making the team are Necas and Wallmark. In the end, I think contract considerations keep Necas out of Raleigh. I’m not so sure, however, that Peters et al aren’t salivating at having noted playmaker, defensively responsible, face off winning, and newly found sniper Lucas Wallmark on a line with Skinner and Ryan. I would think that line would provide interesting match up problems for a number of teams.
If that’s the case and Wallmark can come close to replicating his AHL numbers, the opportunities really open up.
I think we are heading in that direction, but with Peters motto of wanting players with NHL experience, I am not sure now is quite the time to part ways with a proven player like Stempniak. That feels like November to me at the point where a young player has proven he can succeed in that slot not right now at the point where he might.
Shout-out to you on the Stempniak call. I was thinking about your comment when I suggested it. After reading Chip’s article, maybe there’s more to the story and a real injury is part of it.
Who would have ever thought one year ago that it was even possible that we’d even be considering that Stempniak was borderline not a part of the 2017-18 plan? Not even GMRF, who traded a pick to LVG to come protect him in the expansion draft. Wow.
I was about to write I don’t think they will try Necas on the wing because they view him as a future 1C and 2C and wouldn’t want to confuse his development path. Then along comes this morning’s practice and he is on Ryan’s line with Skinner…
Necas with Skinner and Ryan is very interesting. That’s a fast line with two playmakers to feed Skinner. I’ve been saying the same thing re BP and proven NHL experience, but the talent and opportunities may be too hard to pass up. At least it seems like it’s being considered.
I think you have something there…with the depth in prospects here, I could see a trade of a couple (and even a fringe guy like Stempniak or McGinn) plus a pick for someone like RNH!!
…not necessarily all of that… but some combination, thereof!
That was re: Dmill’s post…
Good stab at it Matt and I agree with most. A couple of departures, however:
Goalie – there’s really no reason for Smith to stay up in Raleigh. We know what we’ve got in him. My guess is that we see Callum Booth for another couple of games while the putative starting tandem in Charlotte of Nedeljkovic and Smith get going early.
I also agree that Necas, Bean, and Hofmann will stick around for a bit longer. I hope that Hofmann actually chooses to stay in North America, but there’s been some speculation that he’s gone on Tuesday regardless. I also think that Necas gets a short look see in NHL games, probably at the expense of Stempniak. But I don’t think he’ll get the whole 9. Winning early is too important for this team and gambling on Necas might not be in Peters’s best interest. I don’t, however, think Bean gets any NHL games; he’s back to Calgary before the last pre-season game in my opinion.
Carrick and McKeown are likely to be in town until the bitter end. Then it’s back to Charlotte and the blueline log jam down there.
As far as the forwards are concerned, it’s an interesting conundrum. Personally, I think Roy goes down this afternoon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see PDG head down there too. We know what we’ve got in him. Unless he magically discovers some finish, he’s destined to be that NHL/AHL tweener. I don’t think it is in the team’s interest to wait around and see if he develops it over the next week or so.
I do believe that both Gauthier and Zykov stay for another game, Zykov especially, as I think the coaches want to see him in NHL-level game action. I’m torn about Saarela and Foegele. While I think both might get one more game up in Raleigh, it wouldn’t surprise me if both were sent down this afternoon. Neither is likely to make the squad (although a line of Kuokkanen, Foegele, Saarela would be something fun to watch).
So for me, my wild guess is that we see these young forwards still in Raleigh on Saturday morning: Wallmark (who still has a 50/50 chance of making the team), Kuokkanen, Necas, Hofmann, Gauthier, Zykov, Saarela, and Foegele.
After Saturday’s game, I could see Bean, Gauthier, Saarela, Foegele and Zykov head back to Charlotte, or Calgary in Jake Bean’s case. My guess is that Peters wants the last 2 games as true tune ups, icing something close to his starting line up.
My only comment on Roy is with the concussion, would he be allowed to be sent down? Like last year when Ganly got hurt, he had to stay with the club until he was medically cleared. Could be the same with Roy here.
The last paragraph I think is spot on. Give some of these guys one more game to see how they play. I love some of the skill set Bean has, but I know he’s not ready for our club. He will have had a ton of experience working with the real pros and a list of things to work on that should make him even better. Kuokkanen/Foegele/Saarela, man, sign me up to see some of that if Saarela can stay healthy and Kuokkanen brings it every shift.
Well let’s see….I whiffed on the goalies, missed Hofmann going back to Switzerland, missed both Foegele’s move to Charlotte and Roy’s continuation of time in Raleigh.
Surprised that Brown and Robertson are still here as well. Actually surprised about the wealth of defensemen still in camp. Other than that, most were to be expected.
Notopie shares a lot of my views.
I particularly agree about Smith – he is a vet, and we know what we have.
For the D, return all the career AHLers and keep the possible callups Carrick and McKeown (although I think McKeown is a legitimate NHL player and Carrick will not).
The forwards are a little bit more confusing. But I really think most go down as we thin ranks because as good as they may be, staff knows they aren’t immediately NHLers and it is time too focus on them. They can be evaluated on the AHL level as they develop.
Necas should have 3 more games in him in the preseason if the count I heard from John Forslund on Sunday is accurate. I could see everyone else named by Notopie as here on Saturday, getting one more game in each.
We should find out in a few hours.
The next round of cuts per an amazing source (my intuition he he) –
Goalies – All of Ned, Booth and Smith
Dmen – Robertson, Chelios, Kitchton, Bean, Kanzig, Mckeown, Samuelson, Wesley.
Forward cuts – Gauthier, Smallman, Lorentz, Kuookkanen, Bishop, Shilkey
Stays – Goalies: Darling + Ward. Dmen: Carrick/Fleury/Dahlbeck with one more cut coming there. Forwards: Poturalski/Miller/Foegele/Hoffman/Necas/Saarela with multiple cuts coming in that battle (maybe all).
Injuries – Ganly (not sure but haven’t seen him at all?), Roy, Zykov – I think last year they kept all their injured players until the end rather than cutting them so I figure they will all stay.
Also, Hoffman has been in the organization with his rights controlled for seemingly forever, i’m curious as to why he hasn’t become a free agent yet? I would like to see him signed already…
I did a little research on Hofmann. At the bottom of this article is the reason. Although we drafted him initially in 2011 we never came to terms with him and we released him in 2013 to re-enter the draft. Because his Swiss team didn’t sign the NHL transfer document he couldn’t re-enter the draft and Carolina effectively retains his rights (apparently indefinitely). He is entering his second year of a 4-year contract in Switzerland.
The D should be correct. Forwards, I think Wallmark,Roy, Saarela, Zykok and Necas stay. Actually think DiG goes down Sunday. The middle three stay because they were limited thus far.
notopie is close in that the western swing and last game will be mostly for the regulars. If Necas starts putting up points he has chance. The bottom line is the team needs someone to put up goals. Necas has tons of talent but it hasn’t translated onto score sheet except for one assist. Hischier has two goals and I think Patrick scored in first preseason game.
I worry about Necas being like Aho in that his scoring is after 20 games. Only Skinner and Rask started hot last year. I believe Necas only gets any time in NHL if he shows scoring touch.
tj mentioned he is practicing on wing with Skinner and Ryan which makes sense. If he shows ability to score with those two, he might stay. If not, Europe.
As far as developing him only at center, BP seems to like to have younger players starting on wing. I am still convinced Aho is future 1C.
Would be inclined to agree Necas playing wing isn’t as out there as some have made it seem. His faceoff percentage has been lackluster so far in the preseason against rosters featuring non nhlers. I don’t believe that’s something BP is keen to let him learn on the job. If aho is projected to move to center eventually, I don’t see why Necas can’t follow a similar path.
This is also pure speculation and based on him actually making the team.
Zykov is playing tomorrow – great chance to see what he can do.
I am wondering if our description of Ryan-or-Necas is a false dichotomy. Ryan has played on the wing with the Canes in his time here. Peters had one of those smiles on his face after practice when asked about Necas on the wing. He said Necas hasn’t played a lot of wing (he is a true center) but he “really wants to play”. Insert Peters’ smile. I am thinking Peters may really want him to play as well.
I don’t know if I have ever seen Peters as excited about a young player as he appears to be about Necas – even with Aho last season.
If you haven’t seen today’s Chip Alexander article on the N&O website its a must read:
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article174828731.html
Two very relevant takeaways:
1. Nicolas Roy is back in regular practices with no yellow (no-contact) jersey, so the word is he is ready to play. It will be good to see him get game action with the NHL regs.
2. I just have to let Bill Peters (via Chip) take this:
Asked about Necas playing the wing, Peters smiled and said, “He wants to play.” This year, in the NHL. “I think if we asked him to play his off side on the back end on D, he would,” Peters joked.
This kid is absolutely forcing his way into a conversation that seemingly has no room for him, and I think this is absolutely fantastic. Borderline best-case scenario from ‘Kneecaps’ so far, I hope he sticks in Raleigh for little while longer.
Is it just me, or is anybody else upset about the hit Hunter Warner (Wild’s largest D prospect, 6’4″, 221 lbs) put on Roy in Traverse City? It looked to me, and I may be wrong, that he targeted the head and his feet left the ice on the follow-thru. He would have been penalized in an NHL sanctioned game, but apparently not in a prospects tournament. He ruined the start of Roy’s pro debut unnecessarily. I wish Roy all the best and hope karma bites Warner on his hind parts.
puckman–I didn’t actually see the hit. But I was upset because Roy was not able to participate early on. I was one of the lone voices arguing that he was the prospect with the best shot of making the opening roster. I thought that because he is solid defensively, strong on face-offs, and a point producer. Even in the Chicago fiasco in the prospect tournament, Roy was in front of the net and just missed tip-ins twice on good plays by the goalie. I understand that he is not the best skater, but he is the best scorer among the prospects at this point. Necas might soon be a top 9 due to ability and speed, but he has yet to show Roy’s ability to generate points (Roy tied for 6th in points per game in the juniors with Hischier). I still believe Roy would be dependable on the fourth line and would greatly improve the PP with his net-front ability and skill at making passes in close. The concussion most likely means he won’t get a full chance to earn a spot.
As much as there is doubt about which prospect might stick and which veteran might get traded this preseason, next year is really going to be interesting. Roy, Gauthier, Kuokkanen, and Saarela will have a year in Charlotte to grow and the likes of Zykov, and Wallmark might have some more experience in Raleigh. Of course, Necas will be almost a sure thing in 18-19 if he doesn’t make it this year. It is truly amazing the depth of young talent the organization has developed in two years.