End of offseason / Beginning of new season coffee drive
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Canes and Coffee is rounding into regular season form. Today you can find the official reopening of The Coffee Shop with polls and discussion questions on the 2018-19 season at a team level. You can also find Part 1 of a 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes season preview series.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part 2 of 2 with quick hitter comments on all 23 players on the opening day roster. Part 1 can be found HERE.
Scott Darling (confidence as a starting point)
Per news today, Darling’s 2018-19 debut now figures to be out a couple weeks as he recovers from a hamstring injury. But when he does take the ice, I think above all else that building confidence will be critical. A huge fuss has been made about Darling reporting for training camp in better shape. That is significant, but that is a prerequisite for success, not a guarantee. And though his physical readiness is a positive, I think much more significant is his ability to quickly rebound mentally and not let a bad game or two snowball. My early watch point for Darling when he returns is how he looks in game action but more significantly how well he rebounds after a loss and/or tough outing.
Calvin de Haan (a quiet steadying force)
Rivaled maybe only by Brett Pesce, newcomer Calvin de Haan could compete for being the least exciting of the Hurricanes’ top defensemen, but he could actually prove to be one of the most important. The team needs to improve its penalty kill where de Haan will be a factor. And the team desperately needs more steady and sound even if unspectacular in its second pairing. Again, de Haan is front and center. So while players like Faulk, Slavin and Hamilton grab more scoring points and headlines, do not underestimate the quiet importance of de Haan.
Phil Di Giuseppe (seeking a higher gear offensively)
The front part of this season is critical for di Giuseppe. Brind’Amour showed a trust in Di Giuseppe in Sunday’s preseason finale when he used him as an injury substitution on the penalty kill and power play in succession. But for Di Giuseppe to carve out more than a depth, possibly #13 role, he will need find a higher gear offensively. He had one mighty burst of scoring late in the 2017-18 season. Can he find that gear again, or was it just an anomaly? I will be watching for offense.
Dougie Hamilton (seeking an offensive catalyst)
Hamilton will be asked to do a lot including playing a top role defensively. But equally importantly, Hamilton is the type of player who has the capability of boosting the entire offense from the back end partly from scoring goals but also just from advancing the puck to generate offensive zone time and even better transition scoring chances. The forward group playing in front of him has some offensive ability, so hopefully Hamilton can help generate scoring chances for the group.
Jordan Martinook (carving out an important niche)
Somewhat like Di Giuseppe, Martinook is a veteran at risk of being made obsolete by younger players with more offensive upside. I think the key to ice time for Martinook is establishing himself as a key part of a successful penalty kill and also bringing some rough and tumble to the lineup on a consistent basis. He and Foegele have been phenomenal forechecking on the penalty kill such that they play more offense than defense when shorthanded. The duo figures to start the regular season together, so key for Martinook’s ice time and role is carrying that success over into real hockey.
Curtis McElhinney (a ready replacement)
With the news that Scott Darling would be on the shelf for awhile, the Hurricanes claimed veteran backup goalie Curtis McElhinney who was waived by the Toronto Maple Leafs. McElhinney provides veteran help at least until Darling returns. The veteran had a stellar .934 Save Percentage in 2017-18 and a still solid .917 Save Percentage in 2016-17. If he can make the transition to a new team quickly, McElhinney could help provide some stability to the goalie position. I will be watching in his first start if he looks comfortable despite the change of scenery.
Brock McGinn (looking to post a few more goals)
After a solid 2017-18 season scoring-wise, Brock McGinn will look to pick up where he left off. McGinn’s 16 goals do not look overly impressive until once considers that he did it with 14:30 of ice time, minimal power play shifts and a league-leading number of shots off the goal posts. Players like McGinn and Foegele have the potential to boost team scoring even if their totals are modest because they will be contributing almost exclusively with even strength scoring. If McGinn can pick up where he left off in 2017-18, he figures to be an important source of depth scoring.
Brett Pesce (more steady glue)
With his delayed entry into preseason game action, Pesce fell in the bottom part of the defense pairings. Justin Faulk paired with Calvin de Haan to fill out the second pairing. But longer-term, I think Pesce’s role will be similar to de Haan’s as a sound and steady defenseman who has a calming influence on the team defensively.
Jaccob Slavin (seeking the next gear)
Slavin emerged from the 2016-17 season having established himself as a legitimate top 4 defenseman who had held his own in a top pairing defenseman in only his second season in the NHL. Slavin was decent in 2017-18 but did not really take another step forward. With additional veteran fire power added to the mix, can Slavin take one more step forward and become an elite NHL defenseman?
Andrei Svechnikov (early read is learning over dominating)
As an 18-year old with a high draft pedigree and ceiling, Svechnikov’s development has the potential to be rapid. That said, my early impression on Svechnikov is that his skill set will enable him to contribute offensively, but at the same time his game is still raw. At least initially, I see him as more of a depth scoring option than a player who drives success and wins. Aho scored 49 points as a rookie (a year older at 19), so that might be an interesting benchkmark to track against for Svechnikov.
Teuvo Teravainen (an important role as Robin)
If the Hurricanes are to make up for the scoring lost with Jeff Skinner’s departure and also boost scoring from 2017-18, the team will need to have some semblance of a top scoring line. That line figures to include Aho and Teravainen. As such, Teravainen is in an important role as a scorer and also complementary player who helps Aho score as well.
Trevor van Riemsdyk (steady depth as necessary)
Van Riemsdyk could easily qualify as a forgotten man right now. With additions to the blue line he is pushed even further down the depth chart. And with Fleury having a strong preseason, the potential exists for van Riemsdyk to be the odd man out in terms of ice time. But van Riemsdyk was solid in 2017-18 and should hopefully be ready to pick up where he left off at the end of the 2017-18 season.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these player watch points would you consider most critical out of the gate to start the season?
2) Would you add other watch points for this list of players?
Go Canes!
Goalies: Darling/McElhinney. Hamstrings are tricky, and need lots of rest. This could easily be 6 weeks out for Darling. Hamstrings are also prone to re-injury. So Canes will have an interesting decision, especially if McElhinney plays well in whatever time he’s given. The smart move might be to put Darling on waivers (no one will take that contract) and get him a some games in Charlotte. This would be one way to carry 3 goalies for a while, right?
I think the Canes could send Darling down on a rehabilitation stint and not expose him to waivers, but I could be wrong.
You are correct – the CBA allows for conditioning/rehab stints no more than 14 days in length without exposing the player to waivers.
1) Svechnikov. The Canes have not had a top 3 pick in a long time. Svechnikov needs to be a difference maker. If it happens early in his career, many other things will improve.
Martinook. The most common belief about the Canes last year is that they would have made the playoffs with league-average goaltending. That is so true. But poor penalty killing was a second big negative, and not as distant as some think. When the team faltered last year, the penalty kill was often one of the main reasons. If Martinook and Foegele can continue on the PK showing the effective aggressiveness they had in the preseason, then the Canes will fare much better against the Penguins and Capitals of the world.
2) Broken record that I am–Pesce is the defenseman who is likely to reach another level. For the final month and a half last season he was playing at a 40-point pace. This preseason he hit posts in both Washington games and made the most impressive offensive play–including plays by any of the forwards–in the final Nashville game. The placement of his shot is much improved and will lead to more chances from players in front of the net. Increased scoring will add a dimension to his game that will take him into the conversation for the team’s best blue liner.
McElhinney could become a first-time No. 1 at 35 if Darling’s injury lingers. As you mentioned, his performance in limited time the past two seasons has been significantly above league average.
ct – I know you like fancy stats; there was a great article at The Athletic that looked at Mac. On the basis of Expect/Actual Goals percentage he was one of the best the previous two seasons, albeit with limited appearances. But overall since the start of his career (2007) he is second worse in EGP/AGP amongst active goalies. The author made the argument on reversion to the mean as being a basis for the Leafs not retaining him.
Also, it says a lot that Leafs fans seem so upset that he was taken on waivers.
tj. I do like stats. For me they sharpen what you are seeing and help eliminate what your biases think you are seeing.
As far as a goalie stat, I have only found one that I really like. Micah Blake McCurdy, whose site HockeyViz is terrific, created a goalie analysis he called Standardized Goals Against for the entire 16-17 season. He has not updated it for 17-18. What I like about his measure is that it has significantly more variables than Expected/Actual Goals, which mostly just considers where the shot came from. SGA considers the shot, the play that led up to the shot, and quality of players on the ice for both sides.
Ironically, in 16-17 McElhinney is the closest goalie to Cam Ward. Both are slightly better than league average. I am sure the measure has its flaws, but from what I have seen it is the most thorough. So based on that, unless the extra two years are a problem, McElhinney should be solid.
Just a comment on Martinook – his play on the PK overcomes any perceived offensive weakness he might have. He is just flat-out good there. But we actually have yet to see his ability to finish around the net. With Wallmark’s offensive effectiveness and ability to get the puck near the net, that 4th line – with or without Svech on it (RBA has said that sooner rather than later Svech will be paired with Necas) – offers some offensive upside we haven’t seen there for a long time.
Thanks to tj I went to see if anything new was on HockeyViz. The season predictions are up. McCurdy gives the Canes a 50% chance of making the playoffs better than the Devils and just behind the Bruins.
That being said, I think he would agree that his model produces some strange predictions: Sabres having a higher projected finish than the Lightning or Bruins; Red Wings predicted higher than the Panthers; Coyotes above both Kings and Sharks; Avalanche and Wild above the Jets.
However, he is completely transparent with how his model works, so at least it is better than a pundit saying “it’s obvious team X plays harder than team Y.”
Simple for me. Skill with grit from the players who can.
The goalies are the obvious watch point, but Peters systems seem to be a pretty serious culprit in that. In hindsight, we should’ve been counting the number of times a goalie was hung out to dry from bad positioning during his tenure. I was a huge supporter of his until last season so it’s eating crow, but our goalies will most likely do better than worst in the league numbers this year.
My current thought – which is subject to change on a daily if not every other minute basis – is whether or not Aho can start the season at center well.
If other teams are relying on their top defensive players to combat an Aho/TT line it allows the newbies some freedom. Staal takes top defensive minutes and it all filters down to the kids having time to figure out their game.
That’s assuming I’m right about Peters’ systems and there aren’t as many goalie breakdowns, but I’m fairly confident after years of predicting goals from the opposite blue line and watching goalies thrive elsewhere.