What a difference a couple weeks makes. Barely more than two weeks ago, the Carolina Hurricanes were mired in a four-game losing streak that had pushed the team below .500 for the first time this season. But starting with an overtime loss on November 4, the Hurricanes have collected at least a point in seven out of eight games with a 5-1-2 record.
The run of strong play has the Hurricanes in a great place right now. If one creates standings based on games above .500 to adjust for games played, the Hurricanes are currently tied with the Penguins for the seventh and eighth playoff spots in the Eastern Conference with plus 3 marks.
The recent trajectory is clearly positive. The current position is also positive. And the outlook going forward is positive.
But Hurricanes know from painful experience that success over the course of a long 82-game season is very much a ‘What have you done for me lately?’ game that can turn on a dime and go from good to bad just like that.
Based on that I break the Carolina Hurricanes’ upcoming schedule down into two stretches that I think could be critical for determining the end result for the entire season.
Leg 1 — Keep the pedal down with family
This week the Hurricanes have what looks like a reasonably friendly stretch of schedule. After just completing another quick burst of three games in four days with travel before each, the Hurricanes now get two days off and then three nicely-spaced games with no travel. The opponents are decent teams, but the physical part of it is favorable. When you combine that with the current winning momentum, the week looks favorable. But think this week’s three-game run could be tricky in two regards.
First is that the positive results could cause the Hurricanes to take a deep breath and let up just a little. I think the fact that the past few wins have actually been ‘iffy’ in a lot of ways (mostly defense) makes any amount of complacency even more dangerous. Second is the holidays themselves. NHL players are largely creatures of routine. They take a nap at a certain time. They eat a similar pre-game meal at a certain time. They put their equipment on in a certain order. Etc. The holidays can throw off routine. It’s just a wild guess, but with Marc and the Rangers in town on Wednesday, I bet the Staal’s are hosting his parents for Thanksgiving and possibly even Marc and his family. That makes for extra people around the house and likely some diversions from the usual routine.
Leg 2 — The “road” ahead
Looking at what happens next on the Carolina Hurricanes 2017-18 schedule illustrates why I think pushing forward positively in the short burst of three home games is so important. After the Thanksgiving week home stand, the Hurricanes then basically hit the road until the Christmas holiday. Over the roughly four weeks leading up the weekend before Christmas, the Hurricanes play 10 out of 12 games on the road with the two homes games separated. The result is that the team will get on an airplane on Monday, November 27 and will not return home for more than a day or two until December 21. Further, the Hurricanes will travel before each and every game during that stretch and also play three sets of back-to-backs.
Needless to say, December’s schedule could be challenging.
Underlying trends that are less than the results
I am on record repeatedly as saying “results matter.” I stand by that statement. Especially for a team that has mostly played its way out of the playoff chase in October and November in recent years, winning trumps style points by a factor of 10. But the other side of the coin is that winning in random ways and/or when not deserved is usually not sustainable.
Despite the winning ways of late, I would actually say that too many areas of the Hurricanes’ game right now are trending in the wrong direction. Saturday’s win against Buffalo was chock full of defensive breakdowns. Only by virtue of Scott Darling being a super hero that night did the Canes win. Maybe to a slightly lesser degree, the same was true on Sunday against the Islanders. Cam Ward stood on his head and made the effort look much prettier than it really was.
In addition, Teuvo Teravainen and Sebastian Aho have been finishing at an unsustainable rate of late. Even if both players continue on their higher path which is totally possible, days like Teravainen’s hat trick where you shoot three times and score on each one are rare. And not much else is really clicking offensively to provide depth. The power play has netted a few goals in recent games which is a positive, but I am not yet ready to declare it cured. And while there has been some depth scoring, I am not sure I would say that any of the other lines are clicking offensively yet.
Without going too far exploring darkness, the shorter version is that the recent formula for winning has been ‘iffy.’ The team needs to re-find a higher gear defensively or run the risk of a sudden downturn if the goaltending is unable to bail them out and/or when the TSA line returns to Earth.
Avoiding deja vu
A common misconception is that the 2016-17 season crashed and burned during the State Fair road trip. While it is true that the State Fair road trip was a significant negative for the 2016-17 at 1-3-2, the team actually recovered and played its way back into decent position. In fact, the swoon that probably caused the most trouble started on game 19 after the team had climbed to 8-6-4. That 8-6-4 mark is only a single win shy of where the Hurricanes are right now at 9-6-4. At that point during the 2016-17 season, the Hurricanes took to the road and floundered. Next, the Hurricanes took to the road for December and played 9 of 11 on the road (sound familiar?). They hit a bump in the road and a 1-4-1 mark that quickly pushed them back below .500.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you think the Canes need to do in three games this week and then in the road-heavy stretch of 12 games that follows to stay in good position in the playoff chase?
2) Do you similarly see signs of potential problems lurking? Or am I just being paranoid?
Go Canes!
1. Win 2 of 3 at home, and go .500 on the road.
2. “It isn’t paranoia if everyone is out to get you” They do need to play better defensively. But it’s nice that the TSA line is clicking on the scoresheet, after doing all the little things, but not being reward with goals for the first quarter of the season.
1) I think 2-1 or 2-0-1 are needed and likely this week. As usual, the key is the first game. Beating the Rangers will keep the momentum going and only require a split from Nashville/Toronto. The first week of the second stretch should be less challenging. Going to Columbus and New York with two days between involves neither long flights nor little rest–with the back-to-back coming at home against Florida being the type of second day game that is winnable. So the challenge will be the west coast swing against five teams all with winning records. However, there are two teams in each of those games. LA is playing their fourth game of the week when they face Carolina–Quick might be resting. Also, Las Vegas will eventually play more like an expansion team. While I never want to think about the team losing ground, going 2-3 on the trip would be respectable. So yes, it will be a tough stretch, but shouldn’t derail the season.
2) You are being paranoid. Something none of the C&C crowd has mentioned is that the Canes have been in every game except Colorado. Even the first Dallas game at the end looked like the team might force overtime. Every team struggles. For instance, last night AZ ended Toronto’s win streak. The Capitals lost another game by more than 2 goals.
I expect every game to end 4-1 Canes. When it doesn’t happen, I don’t think it is because the team is falling apart. Realistically, most of the things caniacs wanted are improving (power play, overall scoring, goaltending). The D will correct itself as will taking too many penalties. The good news is that the team is successful without everything clicking.
1. Agree with Dogbutler, 4-5 points over the holiday weekend home stand will provide added confidence before the road trip.
2. Matt, you and other ‘Canes fans have a right to question the team and habits against the previous year. That’s what good team’s (and writers) do to improve. As you say, we’re one game better that last year so nothing we haven’t seen before. It’s when we compare to years long gone is when that thinking is not as fair (different regime, different players).
But to your point, until we actually see different (as in a strong December catapulting the team into a strong playoff position), then it’s natural to question how good our trajectory actually is. A pessimist is an optimist with experience.
1/ The formula is to win 67% of points at home and 50% on the the road. I think that’s still the standard. If we’re sitting on 40 pts when we wake up on Dec 22 after 34 games, 20 of which will have been on the road, then we’ll be in fine shape and right on plan.
2/ It’s good to be paranoid. The glass is half full: we only have one line producing, Faulk, Rask, and (to a lesser extent) Lindholm haven’t gotten going, our PP is still struggling (even if it’s shown signs of life recently), our defense has given up way too many grade-A chances, our goaltending has been unsustainably good, and we are about to go on a brutal 15-game stretch.
To no one’s surprise, though, I’m a glass half-full guy: we are scoring enough to win, the PP, Aho, TT, goal suppression, the goaltending – basically everything but defensive-zone turnovers – has been very good and and moving in the right direction. And as unsettling as it is, the fact that BP benched Rask means that accountability is also rising and patience is thin. I believe we are still playing closer to our floor than our ceiling.
Here’s something to think about … GMRF likes to move early: if the team continues to grow through the month of December and actually gains ground in the standings – my glass half-full scenario – don’t be surprised if he makes a trade around Jan-1, way before the trade deadline, to improve the team for this year’s run.
Ranger game is crucial a win Wed will probably put us in a playoff spot for the first time this year. Then hopefully we build momentum for rest of home stand and hopefully the confidence we need to keep it up.
dmiller. You do like to give us things to think about.
I would be surprised (maybe even disappointed) if there is a January trade. I did some research on nhltradetracker.com. Most in-season trades that involve a valuable player occur in late February or March. At that point is is out-of-contention teams trying to get some value for pending UFAs.
The only trade listed on the site under “biggest trades” that occurred near Jan. 1 was Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones. I actually think such a trade is available. But my guess is most Canes’ fans would balk. The trade would be Slavin or Pesce for Nylander or Marner. Toronto needs one more top-flight D and could bring in Kapinen to partially replace Nylander/Marner. Carolina “needs” (I am not really in the majority on this) a first-line center/forward and could partially replace Pesce/Slavin with Carrick or Dahlbeck on the left of McKeown on the right. In the long run, it might work out well for Carolina. However, even though I know about the endowment effect, I think Pesce and Slavin are key to the organization’s future.
That being said, you mentioned Barkov as a possible trade target earlier this week. As much as I love Pesce/Slavin, I would have to admit that Barkov in return would be a good deal. Barkov is a better value than Tavares because he is signed for less than $6M for the next four seasons and is younger so in three years he will likely be the better center. However, I don’t see any way Florida includes Barkov in a deal–period.
My optimistic take is that the current is good enough to make the playoffs this year an compete for the Cup in 2-3 years. As you have mentioned on several occasions, the ceiling is still in the future for many of the key players.
Which brings me to a question for you. You did a great job analyzing the future of the salary cap. Given that 3 key RFAs are having strong years (Aho, TT, Hanifin), any change to how soon/how big the cap will be an issue?
CT, you give me too much credit; like RedRyder says, all regular readers know I have an extremely wide margin for error 🙂
As for the trade, I wasn’t speculating on a Johansen-Jones type of deal; I don’t think that’s GMRF’s style. I was thinking a more measured approach that sees us trade some combination of a current roster player, prospect, and future to upgrade a weakness – something like what Matt suggested last week. I’d love to see us get Barkov/Trocheck or Nylander/Marner but I would still be very reluctant to give up a Top-4 to do it, and that includes Faulk. (Remember, we were down on Faulk this time last year and he really turned it on after Jan 1.) And I’m with you, I’m not sure that’s even going to be needed. The trade key is to make the move early and establish the market price; I think that’s how GMRF has been at his best.
In any event, I updated the spreadsheet to reflect the Slavin/Pesce deals but left everything else pretty much the same. There is plenty of room this year and next year. It only starts to get dicey in ’19/20, and only if we have to resign Skinner, Aho, and TT to very large increases. We are fortunate that many of our skill players will still be on the ELC’s.
Cap Table Analysis Spreadsheet –
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sUj5Yk5DGWhyLw9ibSncAmV-LEQA27l6FNri45zMBns/edit#gid=0.
Just the mention of trading Slavin or Pesce (especially Slavin) makes me shudder. I think they are going to be the backbone of our defense for a long time to come and I’m not of the opinion that we need offensive “help” that bad. I will admit to bias but any return shy of a Matthews or McDavid isn’t worth giving up Slavin in my opinion.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a combination of Faulk, Rask, and picks going to get a true 1C or consistent 60-70 point winger and possibly a depth defenseman.
We are not really very far away from the top of the division. Yup, put me in the balk category. IMO Pesce and Slavin are way to important to the organization’s future to consider trading. We could certainly use a top forward but not by trading away our defensive future.I was totally against trading any of our D. Now 20 games into the season, Rask and Faulk are the two I would consider trading but only if we get a good return. Both of these guys could come out of their slumps. The best move may be no move.
I would probably think about Faulk for Barkov/Trocheck or Nylander/Marner. I agree with virtus on the 1C or consistent 60-70 point winger. I am sure RF is weighing these options much closer then we are.
With only 5 points separating the first place team from the last place team in the Metropolitan division, the Canes can lose all three or pick up a couple of points and still end up right in the middle of the hunt. The biggest potential for disaster is a long term injury to any of the top players on offense…Skinner, Staal, Terravainenenenenenen, Aho ho ho and of course Darling in net.
This week we play 3 teams that are top half in Goals For / Games Played and bottom half in GA / GP. Should be fun, higher scoring games.
Next week is more of the same, except for CBJ. They are stingy defensively and bottom half in scoring.
We have fared well against the run and gun teams so far, and I look for that to continue. Over the next two weeks, 7-8 points of 12 is what we need, but 9-10 is within reach, if we stay healthy and play our game.
I was glad to see our healthy extras in the game on the second night of a back-to-back. For some reason fresh legs are appreciated for the goalie position but not others, even though the big data is clear. Some team will pioneer the “maximum sub strategy” for B2B and the game will be forever changed. Why not us?
asheville–glad to see another fan of using data. I think with all the B2B games, it makes sense to take advantage of the rules. I expect the coaches might rest Williams as the season progresses. I also like the opportunity to give a tryout to some of the Checkers. Foegele for Nordstrom (who is playing good hockey, so I am not suggesting he be removed for an extended period) might infuse the fourth line with scoring potential.
tenininumee. I agree that losing Skinner or Staal would be a blow as their skills are not easily replaced. Aho and TT have magic together right now, but if one does go down maybe the third Finn could be recalled. As others have mentioned, the organization has talent where in previous seasons it had big holes. That talent is going to make things difficult for RF and BP next season: does RF re-sign Ryan and Jooris or count on two of the players in Charlotte. Is the offer to TVR as short as possible, or does he become part of the organization’s longer plans. I enjoy opining on all this, but am glad I don’t make the decisions. It is fun to play GM, but my guess is the job is quite taxing.
CT – I was also not suggesting replacement for an extended period, just for the second night of back-to-backs. Give the prospects a taste of the big league, which energizes everyone and puts fresh legs on the ice. It’s an all around win as long as players can be moved back without having to clear waivers.
1) I agree with what others are saying, 2 out of 3 for the home games and .500 on the road.
2) I fully admit that after the last 8 years I am borderline paranoid most of the time. Yes, problems could occur, our defense could continue giving great chances. The TSA line could stall. The goalies could stop bailing the defense out. I do feel better then in the past. We have been keeping most teams 2 goals or less. That is a big deal. We have been in most every game. So I guess I am glass half full but cautiously optimistic.
So, you are probably not paranoid Matt, lets say realistic and borderline paranoid. 🙂