Happy New Year Hurricanes fans! Sunday brought news that the Buffalo Bills had ended the longest playoff drought in the NFL. Here is hoping that the Hurricanes similarly end the longest drought in the NHL in 2018!
I have written a handful of articles already that broke down chunks of upcoming schedule. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks forward into 2018 and the schedule ahead.
Early January – The gauntlet (7 games)
Starting with the St. Louis Blues game on Saturday, the Hurricanes face a tough stretch of 8 games chock full of teams in the top third of the NHL either in 2017-18 (Washington times 3, Tampa Bay, Boston, Pittsburgh, Calgary and the St. Louis game just completed) with 5 of those 8 games on the road.
I view this stretch of hockey as critical to the season. After a strong performance in December that pushed the Hurricanes to within reach of the playoff cut line, the Hurricanes need to play well enough in early January to not give up what they worked so hard to gain in December.
The goal: To emerge from the third of three games against the Capitals in only 11 days still within one or two points out of the final playoff spot.
What it takes: The Hurricanes need to at least break even at 3-3 in the remaining 6 games following the loss to the Blues to start the tough stretch.
The second half of January – Navigating the bye week (4 games)
The second half of January features a quick burst of 4 games with 3 on the road and also the challenge of getting back up to speed after the bye week. The Hurricanes hit a lull around this time in 2016-17 that put a few nails in the coffin.
Like the front part of January, I view this stretch as more of the lead up than the main event. The team does not need to win out in this short stretch, but similar to the front part of the month, it cannot afford to give up ground either.
The goal: Similar to the front part of the month, the goal is not to hit a skid and give up December’s gains.
What it takes: Again, .500 (so 2-2) would be the low end of acceptable, though ideally the Hurricanes will find a way to be plus 1 or 2 for the month.
February – Now or never happens at home (12 games)
Starting with a home game against Ottawa on January 30, the Hurricanes play 11 of 12 games at home. As long as the team can at least tread water in January, I think this stretch of games in February has the greatest chance to decide the fate of the season. The odd stretch features two sets of back-to-backs with both games at home and also three sets of three games in four nights. Winning in the NHL is more about how a team is playing than opponents or schedule, but if the schedule is going to play a role, this would be the time.
The goal: If the Hurricanes mostly tread water in January and enter February at or near the playoff cut line, the team will need to surge during this stretch. If the team treads water here, they will still be in the playoff chase, but I think it could also be a telltale sign that the team just does not have it in them to string together the run needed to rise above the cut line.
What it takes: Something like 8-5 would be a minimum, but I really think if the Hurricanes are going to find a higher gear a combination of rhythm and rest at during this home stretch could see something like 10-3 be what makes them a surefire playoff team.
Heading into the final quarter…
The home run through February 23 will see the Hurricanes heading into the final quarter of the season with only 21 games remaining. March is the typical busy grind that it always is. The phenomenal March in 2016-17 that still was not enough shows just how important it is to enter the month trying to hold position not make up for past mistakes.
I really think if the Hurricanes are to make the playoffs, it will require a steady January that does not give up December’s gains followed by the team finding a rhythm at home an reeling off a bunch of wins in February.
Go Canes!
Before the PIT game, I said 9-points in the 9 games and hopefully 12+ to really make up ground on the Metro. That was 2-pts and 2 games ago, so it’s down to 7 and 10+ in the remaining 7.
If we can somehow take 4 of the 6 points from WAS, then steal a road win against either BOS, TBY, PIT, and hold serve against CGY, that would be fantastic. The real key is how we play and match up against WAS. We earned 2-pts in 4 games last year; we need to be better against them this year.
We’re very fortunate to have this upcoming schedule now that we seem to have found a more consistent game and formula for winning, and not in November or early December when we were unpredictable and inconsistent. We’re playing as well as anyone in the league right now.
The two teams that scare me the most are BOS and TBY.
First and most importantly. Happy New Year Matt and fellow C&Cers. You all made my 2017 more fun as a Caniac.
Good analysis Matt. Your point about not “giving back” the progress from December is key.
I find it easiest to think about games above .500. If the presumption is that it takes 96 points to make the playoff cut, then a team needs to have 14 more wins than regulation losses. For an extreme example: a 25-11-46 record is just as good as a 48-34 record. I mention this because the results against Washington can be different than the results against Pittsburgh. Going 1-0-2 against Washington would be “losing ground” to the Capitals, but since they are pretty much a shoe-in for a spot, it is is not as significant as getting at least one regulation win against Pittsburgh.
The way the D has been performing, I think several 2-2 games in regulation are likely. I would take that in all three against Washington, if the Canes can go 4-3-1 the rest of the month. A 5-3-3 outcome leading up to Ottawa would be great, even it that looks like 6 losses. Then the favorable schedule in February should allow the Canes be fighting for the 3rd seed as well as the wildcard.
I never expected to write this: here’s hoping that the Canes are the Buffalo Bills of the NHL.
January starts with a nice pace of games the first week; but the next four weeks feature 3 sets of “3 games in 4 days”, as well as our 5 day break. It will be difficult to find a rhythm then.
The STL game was a third game in four days and the impact on play was pretty obvious. The impact on the body is less obvious – the workload exceeds a healthy amount, with muscle, bone, and connective tissue being converted to nutrients. Staying healthy during this stretch will be the most difficult challenge.
Although an extremely small sample size, a couple observations from STL:
1). “Rested Dahlbeck”
has been playing better than “rested Fleury”, but “rested Fleury” is probably better than “tired Dahlbeck”. The Dahlbeck/Faulk pairing was weak in STL.
2) “rested Wallmark” brought some much needed energy and scoring pop to the weary canes. I would like to see the maximum amount of fresh legs in the lineup that the league will allow in these “3 in 4” stretches if not all back-to-backs.
To return to the question asked (ahem) the most difficult element is to project what it will take to advance in the metro this year. It may take 98 points this year, but best bet is to go with the conventional wisdom on the cut line. That said a stretch of .500 hockey should keep us in the hunt. CT’s observation that 25-11-46 is a playoff pace is entertaining but the Canes could well be the closest to that mark in the league this season.
Do I think, or expect the Canes should win ALL THE GAMES…? NO!
But, I tire at hearing “WHAT IS THE MINIMUM WE CAN DO?” The main reason we have missed the playoffs…forever (IMO) is the OWNERSHIP TRIES TO DO THE MINIMUM (spend the minimum) to make it…AND, OF COURSE…FAILED, CONCISTENTLY!!
Why is it so hard to ACTUALLY TRY TO BE THE BEST?
If you fail, at least you know you gave it your best effort…!
I couldn’t look at myself in the mirror if I was RF, PK, etc.
I was never the best athlete on the field, but I wanted to be the most effective with what I had! Professional athletes tend to be the same way, ONLY WITH GREAT TALENT!
I don’t feel PK, or RF approach their jobs this way?!!