The Hurricanes are 4-4-2 at ten games into the 2017-18 season. That treading water pace is neither good enough to make the playoffs nor bad enough to rule them out if the team can rise even modestly.
If one breaks the long NHL season down into 10-game segments, the Hurricanes’ season is officially at mile post one of eight which makes it an interesting time to do at least an early evaluation on Ron Francis’ and to a lesser degree Bill Peters’ (figuring he had some input) summer work.
An interesting question is asking whether the play of the team thus far reflects what one would expect given the moves that Ron Francis made. I think it does for the most part.
Room for improvement coming out of the 2016-17 season
Coming out of the 2016-17 season, I would have ranked the areas for potential improvement as follows:
1) Goaltending
2) Scoring
3) The second pairing on defense
4) The third pairing on defense
5) Depth forwards
What Francis did in each area
1) Goaltending
What Francis did: Francis made arguably as strong of a move as possible to address his top priority – goaltending. Scott Darling was in the top tier of netminders thought to be available. Darling just needs to settle in and find a higher gear, ideally with the help of a defense that tightens up a little.
Evaluation through ten games: The addition of Scott Darling has not really paid dividends through ten games. He has been ‘meh’ at best thus far. Some patience is in order, but Darling must find a higher gear to provide the boost that was expected.
2) Scoring
What Francis did: The Hurricanes did add forwards who could improve the team, but he did not add a true scoring catalyst. Instead, he added Justin Williams who is a very good player, is capable of providing higher-end depth scoring and is a great two-way player. But likely due to market prices, Francis did not add the scoring catalyst that the team needed to move up significantly from finishing 21st in the NHL in scoring for the 2016-17 season.
Evaluation through ten games: Maybe not surprisingly, the Hurricanes are 23rd in the NHL in scoring after not making a significant addition capable of serving as an offensive catalyst for a top-end scoring line. Until the team finds a higher gear, this will be a watch point both in terms of signs of internal improvement and speculation about external improvement via trade.
3) The second pairing on defense
What Francis did: Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin finished reasonably strong in top 4 roles down the stretch for the 2016-17 season. That forced Francis to make a tough decision. Should he trust not one but two players who had lackluster 2016-17 seasons in total defensively simply because they finished strong? Or with a tight budget, should he still try to add another top 4-capable player to the mix? Francis chose to bet on Faulk and Hanifin.
Evaluation through ten games: The bet has not worked thus far. After a strong preseason, Hanifin seems to have regressed again. He looks more assertive and confident with the puck on his stick, but his defensive play without the puck continues to leave a lot to be desired. Faulk has similarly been ‘meh’ at best defensively through ten games.
4) The third pairing and extra on defense
What Francis did: In not using Haydn Fleury as trade collateral to land a goalie or a scoring forward, Francis kept one good option for the third pairing, and he also added Trevor van Riemsdyk.
Evaluation through ten games: The addition of van Riemsdyk has thus far stabilized the third pairing on defense. Fleury/van Riemsdyk has not been perfect, but the pairing has been good enough in a third pairing role. Dahlbeck’s suspect play in the couple games that van Riemsdyk was out with an injury suggest that depth could be an issue if Dahlbeck must be called upon again.
5) Other depth forwards
What Francis did: Francis went above and beyond on this area for improvement when he added both Josh Jooris and Marcus Kruger to the mix.
Evaluation through ten games: In terms of accomplishing the original goal to build a solid fourth/checking line, Francis hit the mark. Nordstrom/Kruger/Jooris or McGinn has been able to take more of the tough shifts than McClement’s line could, and they have even chipped in a few goals.
The bigger question is whether the initial goal made sense at all. With forward depth growing, might it have been possible to build a fourth line with a bit more scoring upside instead of an old NHL checking line?
Summing it up
I do not think the current state of the team is surprising given the 2016-17 season and the additions over the summer.
Until the Hurricanes can build a bona fide scoring line, goals will be hard to come by some nights.
And though upside existed (and still does) counting on Hanifin/Faulk to be a sure thing after a strong finish was counting chickens before they are hatched.
Roster slots spent solidifying the bottom portion of the roster (fourth forward line and third defense pairing) have yielded the dividends desired.
The only thing that maybe diverges from reasonably expected results is the fact that Scott Darling has not really hit stride yet. In making a transition to a new team, that situation is definitely one for which patience is required.
So getting back to the original question which read,”Is this the team that Ron Francis built?”, I would say yes, for the most part it is.
The burning question
The big question is how patient Francis will in allowing the 2017-18 season roll forward versus aggressively making a move or two to address weaknesses that are carry overs from the 2016-17 season.
Go Canes!
Man, Matt, you’re giving Faulk and Darling similiar ‘meh’ ratings. That is a rough assessment of Darling then. Faulk has been awful. Awful decisions, bad pinches, terrible ice placement, and very little addition to the offense. Darling hasn’t been stellar but the same level as Faulk?
Is this GMRF’s team yes. We have focused on smart scandanavian players in the draft for a while. They make good decisions and play a decent to good 2 way game. They aren’t physical. Also we are raising our defenders to be smart with the stick and position, not punish a guy. I don’t see many checks out of many of the defenders. Outside of McGinn we don’t have forwards that want to hit either.
GMRF has made safe decisions when acquiring pieces. He has hoarded them, see how many contracts we have. Some of it is PK as well. Its cool to invest in low money assets (GMJR messed that up for us with HWSNBN). We’ve seen that for 20 years.
Unfortunately with the sale falling apart, we’re doomed to continue.
In short, yes, this is what GMRF built. Avoiding mistakes has been a primary consideration.
Honestly, we’re scoring less than I thought we would and not as strong on team defense as I expected either.
Barring an explosion from a player I don’t see, this is about where we’re at this year. IMO, The team still needs more talent. Specifically the highly skilled veteran (at least 5 years in the league) kind. The team is incredibly young and needs 1-2 more players that have had playoff success.
That talent is expensive and risky. I think GMRF is realizing that’s the missing element.
This is indeed the team that GMRF built, but that doesn’t mean he got everything he wanted.
After Slavin and Pesce signed extensions this summer, Hanifin was slotted in next. I was looking for a sign-and-trade for Duchene, Hanifin appeared to be the type of asset Colorado coveted (young with NHL experience) but only with a longer term contract in place.
The leading indicators were there, e.g. we signed more defensemen than we needed at the AHL level.
But… then it didn’t happen. Whether because GMRF thought the price too high or Hanifin didn’t want the trade or because a better year would increase the value of Hanifin’s contract, who knows, but now Hanifin needs to step up and deliver.
Well, this is the team Francis is building. I’d say he’s about 60 – 70% from substantial completion, which is about what I’d expect since he started with having to dig out of a swamp before he could even think about building a foundation. So now the foundation is mostly in place and he’s filling in the pieces, albeit in a more methodical way than many of us appreciate. The team is demonstrably deeper than a couple of years ago and with Darling, they should have arguably the most important position filled for the near future. The simple truth is I don’t see Carolina ever being able to acquire a superstar forward through a trade or free agency. There simply are too many financial constraints for ownership to sign off on a long term contract for a top player. The only route is through the draft and the development of 18 – 20 year olds. So this is where we’re at. The Canes need another year of development and experience for Aho and hopefully a step up in consistency and productivity for Lindholm, Teriavainen and Rask. If we don’t see considerable improvement from those four players, the fundamental assumptions the rebuilding plan is based on will be suspect. I can’t say today that I have total confidence that at least for any of the last three, that consistency will be achieved. Maybe. Maybe not. But it is imperative that it happen or the team will essentially be made up of three #3 lines and a fourth line. And that’s just the forwards. The defense also has their issues with consistency (Faulk, Hanifin mainly) and general inability to drive offense. So for me, I don’t worry – simply because it does no good IMO – about what type of player isn’t here (offensively gifted center), but more about the development of those that are here and are being depended on to produce. That’s what I’ll be watching for the remainder of the season and as long as they have a shot at a playoff spot going into the last quarter of the season, and those players have progressed to where they need to be, then the plan is progressing along the Francis path which simply is building 4 solid lines, get good goal tending and win the 2-1 games. It may not be sexy, but teams can be successful using that model but there is a slim margin of error involved – especially if any major injuries hit any of the top 6 players.
Very well said… I believe if GMRF could have gotten a 1C, he would have… I believe on Slavin or Pesce would have worked and I agree that price was not nor will ever be worth it.
I too want the Canes to win 4-1 ever game. But critiquing every reason they don’t sounds serious but isn’t reasonable. Sometimes other teams make good plays, it is not just a Carolina player making a poor play. For example, the D pairings haven’t been perfect. But they held Toronto and TB to a combined five goals. And Toronto scoreless after tying the game at the midpoint. Few other teams have been able to get that done.
CanesCountry has a post and buried in it are projections from two models. The Canes playoff probability is 68 in one and 55 in another. The team’s schedule thus far has been third most difficult in the league. Sure scoring could have been better, sure opponents’ chances could have been limited more. But to state that any of the available D-men would have been better in all 30 periods or even half of them is unreasonable. Same with forwards. RF acquires Williams. He has as many points as Duchene.
I will state again I have been disappointed with the six games the team didn’t win. Still when assessing the team RF built looking at projections from uninterested analytics types is more reasonable than most fans. Because simply put we want perfection. That won’t happen. But RF has built a team that while imperfect is better than years past and has been pretty good given the quality of opponents so far.
Well put! This pretty closely mirrors my feelings.
We still have a lot to work on; but given that and how we are doing so far once those pieces fall into place we will be a much more dangerous team.
Kudos to CT – I agree with his perspective even through the waves of despair I felt in the STL game! 🙂
To answer the question, I think this is the team that RF built, and that BP – more or less – wanted. We are not going to get a 1C. But then I don’t think the goal for RF or BP, Matt, is a top scoring line. Peters has said over and over that he WANTS 4 lines that he can roll – not that he will accept it. He wanted NHL-ready players this season, and that is what he has. I don’t think a top scoring center was ever part of the plan – although he wouldn’t turn it down if the price was right.
Improved scoring will come – if it does – with the young F’s returning to form. I agree with your previous posts that moving Aho to Rask’s wing will create a much more offensively driven line. And I think Turbo becomes much better when he is on Staal’s line. Peters has his reasons for not doing that, regardless of whether you and I agree or not. 🙂
I really think the offense has been stymied by poor execution – such as getting the puck across the neutral zone under control. Once we are in the offensive zone we tend to do well – although we haven’t done enough finishing even on Grade-A’s, but we have had more Grade-A’s of late. Our goal totals are also depressed because of a poor power play.
I also think Darling has been a lot better than you describe – but if Skinner is going to pass a puck to the slot where the only player is a Duck (after Faulk skated past him) you are going to see his GAA go up. I was listening to Chuck Kaiton call that game while I was in the arena and he did say that the score would have been worse for the Canes if it wasn’t for Darling – he made some timely and excellent saves. I also thought his rebound control was much better that game. And I loved the way he got out of the crease in OT and made to almost to the blueline to get the puck to Rask on a breakaway. Not the first time he has gone way out – he has that confidence. In listening to him, he is being asked to play a little differently than he did in Chicago – Chicago didn’t want him going behind the net to retrieve/redirect pucks, for one thing. So Darling was a big plus.
I think the shakiness we have seen on defense by Faulk and Hanifin has been an issue which I am not sure could have been that anticipated given how they finished last season. You expect improvement and plan for it – although with our lack of depth we don’t have much of a contingency (at least for the right side).
Our depth on the right may be tested again. Minutes ago in practice Pesce took a puck to the head and had to be helped off the ice.
That’s terrible news… If Pesce was to miss games do you think Faulk and TVR will move up a slot or Slaving gets bumped over to right since he can play his offside better than any of our back-up third pair options?
Slavin*
The bad news – Pesce was hit by a puck.
The latest (and better) news update – he wasn’t actually hit in the head. He was hit on the neck or shoulder. He is being evaluated but Peters expects him to skate tomorrow.
Well, I can’t say “this is a surprise…” the NEED FOR A TOPNOTCH FORWARD (unfulfilled) was bound to BITE US IN THE ASS! Sitting on the big “capspace” AGAIN…still sucks…we’re doomed to mediocrity!
Penny-wise…Pound-foolish etc, etc, etc, …..
understand your frustration, but I don’t think the option was there… IMHO the money is not the issue.
I like many of these comments – almost all of them really. We have had a very tough schedule; we have yet to find our stride on either side of the puck; many of the players we thought we’d be relying on this season have yet to produce except in spurts, especially Aho, Faulk; Darling has generally been fine but hasn’t looked entirely comfortable yet and is still settling in. All in all, we haven’t played up to our ceiling.
And having said all that, we are in fine shape in the standings. If the 2015-16 team can do what it did from Dec 3 – Feb 28 and the 2016-17 team can run off a 13-game unbeaten streak after the trade-deadline, then this team must have some great things ahead of us. Bill Peters didn’t get stupid over the summer. He’s been a great coach for us and I’m highly confident he’ll bring this team together soon.
As for GMRF, he must be frustrated with the inconsistency but that comes with being the 2nd youngest team in the league. The image of the TOR game must have been burned into his brain and given him a great deal of optimism for what will happen when we come together and go on a run. It’s happened every year and it’ll happen again this year. The only difference: we’re starting this year from a much better place in the standings.
I’m counseling patience. We’re actually in decent shape.
Next ten games are ‘statement games’ and will determine what type of playoff contender we truly are.
A solid 14-16 points (out of 20 possible points) will signify we are a serious playoff contender and likely catapult us into top 3 of division. Whereas 10-12 points (or less) will mean we are a borderline .500 team that will need to go on a serious run later in the year to even have a realistic shot.
While we have gone on great runs in the past, it is naïve to rely on a long winning streak in 2018 to HAVE to get us out of a hole. As we’ve seen, oftentimes that hole is hard enough to climb out of, never mind climbing the mountain right after digging out of the hole to even sniff at the wild card, only to fall short. The good teams string together various 4-6 game winning streaks without doing the same in the opposite column. We need to be THAT team, not the team that HAS to go 10-1-1 just to be in the true mix.
The positive of the first ten games is that we are NHL .500 at a time of the year we rarely see this. Looking at our schedule we are fully capable of going 7-3 or 8-2 over the next ten. This will lead us to Thanksgiving, and will really determine true playoff hopes for the existing group in 2017-18.
Not saying we definitely need a streak to get us there … just saying our consistent hockey is still in front of us, and that will likely include a nice run of hockey. Agree: the next 10 set up nicely.
I admire the optimistic outlook… that was me for the last 5/ 6 years, BUT sooner or later realism takes hold…!
What makes anybody believe -just because you HOPE- things will change? I don’t see any sign this team is on an upward trajectory!
I don’t see how the facts are changing! Where is the “extra scoring” …THIS TEAM MUST HAVE, going to come from?
…WHO, on the team WILL STEP UP? Why should I get my hopes up??