Monday wrapped up my series of articles on the Hurricanes prospect pool. There is much to be optimistic and excited about, but perhaps the player rising most rapidly right now is Janne Kuokkanen. At the risk of overhyping Kuokkanen, today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at the parallels between Kuokkanen’s development thus far and the path taken by fellow Fin Sebastian Aho.
Sebastian Aho
With the 35th draft pick in the 2015 NHL draft, the Carolina Hurricanes selected Sebastian Aho. He was a bit off the board in terms of the mean draft rankings and also a bit of an unknown being a European prospect. In fact, the first step in the process of welcoming Aho into the Hurricanes prospect pool was clarifying that the Sebastian Aho in question was the forward from Finland and not the defenseman from Sweden. When the Hurricanes passed on a handful of bigger names, bigger players in terms of size and more well-known players from North America, there was a mini-uproar on Twitter from many of the June draft experts who had Aho nowhere to be found at least this early in the mock drafts.
Aho first arrived in Raleigh for the 2015 Carolina Hurricanes prospect camp. He had a strong week but not really anything that screamed “super star…and very soon.” While some were still transitioning from whoever it was they thought Francis should have selected instead of Aho at #35, I rated his play at prospect camp top of the class in this article that was one of Canes and Coffee’s first on our July 29, 2015 official launch day.
Aho exited the prospect camp with a higher standing and opinion than he entered it, but his rapid ascension actually started thereafter. The perfect storm of a good Finnish U18 team and high-end line mates in Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi who were in the spotlight as 2016 draft-eligible players created the perfect stage for Aho to demonstrate that he was WAY underrated even at the #35 slot that Hurricanes used to select him. His 14 points in only seven games in the 2016 World Junior Championships dramatically boosted his prospect rankings both inside and outside the Hurricanes organization, earned him a spot on Finland’s World Championship team as an 18-year old with no NHL experience and penciled him into the Hurricanes 2016-17 lineup without a stop in the AHL.
Entering only his second year in the NHL, Aho still has room to grow and a way to go to become an elite NHL player, but his rookie season in 2016-17 was a promising start. (See Aho’s 2016-17 ‘report card’ HERE.) He collected 49 points in 82 games and showed a combination of skill, creativity and maturity that suggest more is yet to come.
Janne Kuokkanen
Janne Kuokkanen 2016-17
Almost exactly one year after making a moderately surprising draft pick to take Sebastian Aho near the beginning of the second round of the 2015 NHL Draft, Ron Francis and his scouting team went back to the well, so to speak, when they again selected a Finnish center early in the second round. Somewhat like Aho actually, Kuokkanen was on the draft boards but maybe selected a bit early relative to the consensus rankings. Like Aho, Kuokkanen offered offensive ability in the form of a heady, playmmaking center.
After my first time watching Kuokkanen at prospect camp last summer, I compared him to Aho in terms of being capable of playing the game with pace not necessarily from raw straight line speed. Kuokkanen exited the prospect camp immediately following his draft year somewhat similar to Aho in that he had a solid camp and played well but did not so much dominate to the point where his expectations changed dramatically.
In comparing Janne Kuokkanen to rapid riser Sebastian Aho, the paths for each do diverge at this point. Whereas Aho went on to shine under the bright spotlight of the World Junior Championship, Kuokkanen had a good 2016-17 season in Canadian juniors but did not gain nearly the same level of exposure as Aho did in international play. Finland was a disappointment in the WJC tourney, and Kuokkanen’s junior play was good but not spectacular. He collected 62 points in 60 games for the London Knights and finished fairly strong with 16 points in 14 playoff games. Kuokkanen received high marks for his all-around from Brendan Ross from TheScout.ca in our ‘Midterms’ check in on Kuokkanen on Febuary 2, 2017. So entering the offseason, I would describe Kuokkanen’s 2016-17 season as positive but not nearly on the same ‘wow’ level as Aho the previous year.
2017 offseason for Janne Kuokkanen
But was he maybe just a later bloomer? Since wrapping up the 2016-17 season, Kuokkanen has not had two incredibly strong showings that at least offer the possibility that he could follow in Aho’s shoes and make the jump to the NHL only one year after being drafted. First, Kuokkanen was one of the two or three best players in his second prospect camp. I wrote about Kuokkanen in some detail in this prospect camp article. He followed that up with a strong and also consistent week that put him a notch above most of the group.
And more recently, he followed that up with a strong performance in the World Junior Summer Showcase (WJSS) against players U20 and lower players largely of NHL draft pedigree. Kuokkanen finished with three goals and two assists in five games and won rave reviews for his play.
Corey Pronman who covers NHL prospects for ESPN said this:
Janne Kuokkanen (CAR) led the WJSS in shots on goal and was solid every game. Intriguing to CAR fans, was how well he played center.
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) August 7, 2017
Finnish scout Marco Bombino FinnProspects also noted Kuokkanen’s strong WJSS play:
Kuokkanen now has 3 goals and 2 assists in the tournament. #Canes #WJSS https://t.co/zfICdSA2QQ
— Marco Bombino (@marco_bombino) August 5, 2017
Is it fair to make a Sebastian Aho comparison?
At a basic level, no. Aho went from recent draftee to good NHL player seemingly instantly. Kuokkanen could well develop much slower and still be successful in the long run.
That said, what jumps out at me is that while it took longer to emerge in Kuokkanen, he is showing a similar level of just being top of class against similar age, elite competition. That at least has the potential to generate the same ahead of schedule jump that Aho made.
Where might Janne Kuokkanen fit in the 2017-18 Hurricanes lineup?
With the additions of Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris following headliner Justin Williams, the depth 2017-18 depth chart for the Hurricanes became much more crowded. With the additions, I think the starting point entering training camp has all of the Hurricanes forward prospects on the outside looking in. That makes a player like Kuokkanen a dark horse to make the team.
But in addition to simply playing well right now, I think three things line up in Kuokkanen’s favor.
First and at a basic level, the Hurricanes need to score more than their 20th place total of 2016-17. That leaves the door cracked open for any forward who can demonstrate in preseason that they can boost the offense. Going a step further, the biggest gap in terms of skill set in my opinion is the kind of playmaking that creates chances for others and boosts a whole line. That need matches Kuokkanen’s projected NHL skill set.
Second, the player currently slotted for the third center slot behind Jordan Staal and Victor Rask is not cemented into the lineup. With no center additions, Derek Ryan seems to be the incumbent for the open center slot. Kruger is a center too, but he leans defense, so there is clearly room for Ryan to be more of an offensive center. Ryan performed fairly well in this role in 2017-18 with 29 points in 67 games, but he has only one year of NHL experience, did not light the world on fire in 2016-17 and therefore could be vulnerable if a rookie forward rises up offensively.
Finally, the Hurricanes have an interesting history of young centers rising up in prospect camp and/or the Traverse City prospect tourney and then riding that momentum to an NHL roster spot ahead of schedule and projections. Long ago, Josef Vasicek was the first to accomplish this feat when he rose from off the depth chart to make the 2000-01 team in a third line role. As a second overall draft pick, Eric Staal was expected to make the NHL, but when he arrived at training camp before the 2003-04 season, the odds were that he would return to juniors to add size and strength. He rose up in preseason leading the NHL in preseason scoring and made the team in the process. Most recently, Victor Rask had a strong summer followed by a preseason and benefited a bit from the roster space made when Jordan Staal was injured in preseason. The result was a surge up the depth chart and into the opening day lineup. He has not played in the AHL since.
So despite the crowded forward ranks, I think Janne Kuokkanen enters the Carolina Hurricanes training camp as a dark horse worth watching. If can do what he is projected to do (be a heady playmaking center with solid defensive acumen) ahead of schedule, I think he could jump the expected schedule and steal a roster spot for October.
What say you Caniacs?
Is it just completely wrong to compare Janne Kuokkanen to Sebastian Aho in any way despite their similarities in terms of skill set and also their common Finnish heritage?
What are the chances that he demonsrates offensive upside in training camp and preseason and wins a roster spot?
Go Canes!
First – Matt, have you been reading my posts here? It would seem so because you have echoed a lot of my own feelings and impressions on Kuokkanen. Just today, I said (I think) that Janne is the most likely prospect to “unseat” Ryan – but I don’t think it will happen out of training camp.
I think it is a mistake to compare Janne and “Fish” (seriously at Skate with the Canes, that is what Aho told me his team nickname actually was, a derivative from Peters’ “Seabass”, of course). Janne is – and will be – a playmaking center who can score. Aho is more a wing (I think his primary position in Finland) who excelled with Laine and Puljavarvi in the World Juniors (that line was god-like).
Janne’s opportunity at center in the NHL is problematic, however. If the Canes need a center because of injury, either Lindholm or Aho will be slotted there (I think), and the Canes will bring a true wing up from Charlotte (Zykov or maybe Gauthier, if he proves able) or slot McGinn.
But what’s interesting is that Ryan is also a very competent wing player. With an injury to a wing player, I could see Ryan moving to the wing and Kuokkanen (but maybe Wallmark this season) being given a shot at that center spot.
I think Janne is a Canes star of the future – but that future largely starts after 2017-18.
That said, if he does make it to the Canes, I will be buying a Kuok jersey – (after I pay off my Darling jersey first! :-D). I am a big fan of Janne.
The plan is coming to fruition. I faked Canes hockey knowledge and a passing ability to write a little for long enough that now I just cut and paste from the comments. 🙂
One thing to note is that Aho is a natural center too. He played between Puljujarvi and Laine on that magical line and was the puck distributor/playmaker. Peters is on record from his post-season press conference as planning to leave Aho at wing for 2017-18, but he also said that he did think he could be a center longer-term. It will be interesting to see if the fact that the Hurricanes did not add a center will expedite the process.
Matt, hope you are correct about expediting Aho’s move to center. He is the best option for the team to have a playmaker at 1C in the future.
I have been reading some of Ryan Stimson’s work about line groups based on playing style. If I understood the basics, then TT/Staal/Williams seem complementary as do Skinner/Rask/Lindholm. The third line would make sense with Aho between Ryan and Stempniak.
Stranger things have happened than Kuokkanen making the team out of camp! He has looked pretty good in the last few games I’ve seen him in… I must admit -ON PAPER- no! With all the possible, or current NHLERS on the roster…IT WOULD BE A SURPRISE, BUT…even if not in the fall, later on, maybe…
Several prospects have enough upside to warrant optimism, but not to be top3…
Sakic knows Duchene is valuable, but I doubt he gets what he’s purported to be asking… could be CLOSE TO IT, though!
RF has virtually all the depth to acquire him, or Nuge, or Galchenyuk…maybe RF will shock us…AGAIN?
RF is not trading the future for 2 years of Duchene, or 3 years of Galchenyuk, or 4 years of Nugent-Hopkins. Not happening. He will trade smart.
Our team and prospect pool is at such a good level we no longer need to rush kids to the NHL. They can develop at there own pace. RF and staff have done a great job. They had a plan and painstakingly kept to it. I know fans would prefer to trade for Duchene but unless price tag becomes reasonable why trade away a ton of assets for a possible 2 year and gone player. We want to strive be a perennial playoff team not a flash in the pan. I love whats happening I can’t wait for the season to begin.
I can’t say it any better. Great job by RF, deep prospect pool, no need to rush them, no reason to make a hail-Mary trade. I also love what’s happening. (And welcome to the party, golden24.)
He’s a long shot to make the team, but there are a handful of players on 1-way contracts that should not feel safe in camp. Any number of prospects will be waiting in the wings. Exciting times.
Now let’s go win in Traverse City.
Even though I currently rank him as the top prospect, I do think the comparison could be tough on Kuokkanen. He is going to be good, probably very good. But Aho has the chance to be elite.
I agree wth golden that the prospects won’t be rushed. Unless there is an injury or a player out-of-shape, I think the lineup doesn’t include a rookie forward. My guess is starting in December there will be 2-3 opportunities for the youngsters. Should Aho, Skinner, Teravainen get hurt, then Kuokkanen is the likely call up. The same is probably true if Rask or Ryan struggle to produce points.
If the open spot is RW, then I will be interested to see what GMRF and BP decide. Gauthier seems to need to rise above the others in Charlotte to fulfill his potential. Because based on junior production and ability to impact the game defensively, I think Roy might get the call up to play as a right winger. He could be slotted on the 4th line and still get significant minutes because he can play both special teams and take crucial face-offs when Staal or Lindholm are off the ice.
Of course, the fourth line might also offer a tryout for Foegele or Smallman if they excel in Charlotte.
Just a long way of saying that I think Kuokkanen is the brightest prospect, but the roster and possible needs if there is an injury/underperformance could lead to others being elevated before Koikkanen.
1st off the Canes scouting crew has killed it in the 2nd round since 2009, minus 2013 because we didn’t have one.
It will be interesting to see if management pushes Kuokkanen through. Kuokkanen would have to outwork Ryan to get the third line slot. I do feel better about Kuokkanen anchoring Skinner and Stempniak than Ryan. A McGinn, Ryan, Kruger 4th line sounds good too. We could go scandanavian line with Kuokkanen, TT, and Aho.
As others have mentioned, we don’t have to rush him to the league. If he shows any holes, then let him play a year in the AHL. Would he be eligible since he is european but played in OHL?
I’m very puzzled with the attitude that ALL THE PROSPECTS WE HAVE MUST BE KEPT! No one can be traded, because we’re obviously going to lose the acquisitions, all the PROSPECTS will be stars, but RF is unable to make a significant move (for an elite player), using promising (but unknown NHL ABILITY,if any) prospects?
How many of those guys CAN or WILL FIT on our roster?
It’s almost like this team (of prospects) are winning the CUP, and ARE UNTOUCHABLE… Why not use a few possibles…to get an established top6?
The price for a top-6 is never prospects. Sakic wants a roster player (of the top-4 D variety) plus more (prospects/picks) for Duchene, even though Duchene only has 2 years left. I have to think Edmonton and Montreal are also asking for a lot (talk earlier was that Montreal was trying to swap Galchenyuk for an “elite”: D). Edmonton may be more prone to wanting to talk next season, when they face the cap. RF has said he is continuing to have conversations with other teams, but I think whatever he does, he will do it smart and with the long-term in mind.
Colorado will not trade for futures. Neither will Montreal. Neither will Edmonton. And honestly, it’s better for us that they won’t. For the heavy majority of our prospects, their value is just going to keep going up. And that’s assuming one of them doesn’t develop into what we needed all along.
While patience might not be what some fans want to practice, the fact of the matter is this patience and trust in player development is going to make us filthy rich in hockey terms, so I (and more importantly Ron Francis) can have patience with all the fans’ impatience. I’ll save my skepticism for the government
tj is absolutely correct that the cost of a top 6 will be one of the D-men already on the roster plus more. It is too high a price.
Fogger is correct in saying it is better for the Canes not to pay the cost even in futures. As David Miller displayed so well, the current roster will be pushing the salary cap in 19-20–without anyone named Duchene or Nugent-Hopkins.
Puckgod–I really understand the desire to win this year. But remember how much has already been done to meet that goal. You were adamant that you wouldn’t buy tickets if the goalie wasn’t upgraded–done. You wanted another scorer–done. And Matt’s wish list included upgrading the D–done.
2017-18 will be the best year in a decade. What is even better is that 2017-18 will be the least successful season in the next 5, maybe even 8.
Keep the faith with just a little added patience. We will all be rewarded.
It’s easy to compare Kuokkanen and Aho based on draft position, nationality and playmaking ability. But like many above have stated, we have improved depth compared to last year. This year it is not necessary to expedite a young gun into the lineup.
Make ’em work for it in Traverse City (those eligible), training camp, and even Charlotte. That goes for Goat Man, Zykov and all the others. If a veteran gets unseated, so be it…competition breeds a winning environment. We will be better for it.