As noted in the game preview for Sunday’s match up against the New York Islanders, even when things go south, it is not possible to just surrender the rest of the season. The games still must be played. As such, they might as well be used productively.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe lays out a few priorities for the last 10 games of the season.
1) Sebastian Aho at center
I am on record back to last summer as saying that the Hurricanes needed to add at least one higher-end scorer to fill out a true first or second scoring line. During the course of the 2017-18 season, Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen have emerged as two-thirds of such a line. And with the market for playmaking centers so pricey, the path to building out that line could prove to be moving Aho back to his natural center position. In limited ice time at center this season, Aho has looked reasonably comfortable even if not spectacular playing with the puck on his stick in the offensive side of the role. His play without the puck defensively while not horrible is still a work in progress. As such, I think Aho could significantly benefit from a run of 10 games at center.
2) Jaccob Slavin on the power play
I would not say that Jaccob Slavin is necessarily a can’t miss or a natural in a power play role, but just like last season, he seems to have hit stride in terms of creating and using shooting lanes in March. That is a decent starting point for being productive on the power play. With power play somewhat better since about the midway point of the season but with the second unit still not really clicking, I would make Slavin a regular on the second unit. Even if he is not seize a role as a regular, it boosts his capability in case he needs to fill in during an injury to a regular. In addition, as a young player who has not had much of a chance in this role, I would like to see what he can do with more than a handful of games to settle in.
3) AHL call ups (importantly with consideration for the Checkers playoff hopes)
An important starting point for considering AHL call ups is recognizing that the Charlotte Checkers are in a playoff spot right not but with little margin for error. As such, I would be careful to balance NHL auditions with not sabotaging the Charlotte Checkers’ playoff hopes. Ideal would be to find time for multi-game auditions for just a handful of players. Though Lucas Wallmark is near the top of the list for NHL potential in 2018-19, I think he is enough of a known commodity that he maybe just stays in the AHL. The player I would like to see most is Warren Foegele. He maybe does not have the scoring ceiling of a few other prospects, but as a player who brings energy, is strong in all three zones and can kill penalties, he has the potential to seize a fourth-line slot next season. Valentin Zykov is another player worth a look. The core of his game which is going to the front of the net, creating chaos near the crease and finishing is something the Hurricanes need more of. It might only take a few games to get an updated read on his ability to match NHL pace between the blue lines, and I think that would be valuable information to have heading into the offseason. Those are the two players at the top of my list. Ideal might be to call up each separately and to strategically pick short stretches where the Canes and Checkers schedules line up such that a chunk of Canes games can be played while missing fewer Checkers games.
4) Noah Hanifin in a second pairing role against tough match ups
His availability is uncertain after sustaining an upper body injury late in Saturday’s game and then missing Sunday’s game, but if Noah Hanifin returns, I would consider getting him some ice time in a second pairing role. When pushed into a higher slot at the tail end of the 2016-17 season, he responded well. The last 10 games of the season represent a good opportunity to try to push Hanifin’s limits and hopefully aid his growth as a player in the process.
5) Scott Darling
I am mostly of the opinion that Scott Darling’s season mostly is what it is at this point and that any late surge after the season’s outcome is more or less decided will not significantly alter my assessment of his season or outlook for 2018-19 season. But even still, I would give him the lion’s share of the remaining starts.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What initiatives would you prioritize for the final 10 games?
2) Do you have any that you would add to this list?
3) What balance would you strike with AHL call ups with the Checkers battling for a playoff spot?
Go Canes!
Priority 1) would be Scott Darling. If the rest of the team falls apart in front of him, keep playing him.
2) I like Aho at center with Turbo on his wing. Lindy on the right side would give a net front presence with chaos among defenders. Leave the unit together, barring anything untoward.
3) Slavin on the p.p. looks good. He seems to be finding his offensive mojo. Wow! Who woulda thunk it?
4) I would like to see Klas Dahlbeck in the line up for the rest of the season. He is a defensive contributor while making few, if any, errors. And he adds a lot of grit. Did you see him nail Boychuck who was trying to nail him last night? He successfully cross checked several Islanders away from the front of the net. He spent no time in the box. Let Fleury and Hanifin duke it out for the remaining spot. In my opinion, Hanifin should win that battle handily.
5) I agree that we should leave Charlotte alone, so long as they are contenders.
6) Last night featured more hitting! Yay! And surprise! Surprise! Each time we hit somebody, play opened up. Imagine that!
1) + 2) One big (dare I say redvolutionary) initiative. Ryan Stimson proposed something like this in a post on hockey-graphs.
One forward never crosses the defensive blue line. I remembered Stimson’s post when Tripp was saying that Tavares was “flying the zone.”
Basically all five players have traditional roles in the neutral zone. But once the opponent crosses the blue line, one forward stays near center ice. I would call him the Designated Break Away ( DBA) player. It creates pressure on D-men if they want to join the offense. Think about a player coming out of the box at the end of a penalty. It mostly eliminates icing and puts extra pressure on the opposing goalie.
It seems like a gimmick- but so did set-up relievers in baseball and the shotgun formation in football.
If it fails, the Canes look silly. If it succeeds, other teams suddenly have to change what they do.
I would start with only one line-Skinner being the DBA.
The biggest problem would be that it is successful then teams have the offseason to implement themselves and counteract. But I think it would be too much of a gamble to start at the beginning of next season.
Aho at center is the key for the future.
The irony, ct, is that Skinner effectively takes on that role for himself as it is on a frequent enough basis- exiting the D-zone before the puck is on our sticks. That directly led to two of Boston’s goals a few weeks back.
Given our propensity to give up positions and miss assignments in the D-zone, I think playing 4-on-5 in the D zone would only magnify our issues there.
tj. I think the problem now is playing outside the system and missing assignments your teammates are expecting you to cover. Once having a DBA is a strategy, those break downs aren’t break downs. There is bound to be some 4 against 5 but the defense can clear the puck without any icing. More importantly there will be some 1 against none. Think about players leaving the penalty box. The goalie bangs his stick to get his teammates to quit attacking. Having a player consistently behind the defense as a strategy is much different than a player freelancing. Again I think the shotgun in football is the closest analogy. It began as desperation by losing teams late in a game. It seldom worked. As it became a regular formation and part of an overall strategy it soon dominated the league.
Opposing players and coaches won’t be playing in their comfort zone. Hockey is likely the most traditional team sport. Change might produce a real advantage. Or it could be disastrous. Ten games might be enough to find out.
1) No initiatives. Time to find out who is a pro and who is not. Professionals are expected to perform at a high level no matter the circumstances. Players that mail it in will tell you who needs to be moved this summer. Peters juggles lines all the time. Players will get opportunities in the normal course of the games.
2) Yes, Slavin has gotten a few points from being put on the PP. He has been much more aggressive offensively this season, but until the past couple games he has had little to show for it. As we have noticed, and his statistics point out, he has suffered defensively for the change in his game. Slavin was on his way to being an elite defender. I’m not sure this increased emphasis on offense has helped him or the Hurricanes.
No callups except for injuries. Prospects in Charlotte will get more out of a playoff run in the AHL than token ice time for the Hurricanes.
I have watched Slavin closely and IMO here late in the season he has shown signs of being worn down from all the minutes he has played. Late in games he has started to stand around in the defensive zone. He has also developed a tick (twitch) which may have come from the over 150 blocked shots.
Just for information purposes so we don’t start pidgeon holing Zykov as a clod on skates, he finished third in the AHL All-Star game fastest skater competition. He is a Wayne Simmonds type player who spends most of his on ice time right in front of the opposing goalie. We have been begging for someone to do this all year. When we find a player who will do it consistently with good scoring results, let’s not want to bench or berate him because he isn’t an all-star defensive forward and try to turn him into a Nordstrom (Note: If Zykov works out scoring wise then having Nordstrom might be a luxury we can afford to carry).
I did not realize that Zykov was in the fastest skater competition at the AHL All-Star game. That makes me even more anxious for a fresh check in at the NHL level.
Two years ago in training camp, Zykov looked good in either zone but was a step or two slow in transition. He was coming off an injury that limited his summer, so maybe he just was not up to speed yet. This past preseason, I did notice that his acceleration in transition had improved, and I always wondered if maybe he was playing a couple pounds lighter.
Regardless, it is hard to argue with his offensive production in 2017-18 and his style of play. Would be great to work him into the NHL mix for a quick 2-3-game stint to see where he is.
Way more to skating than straight ahead speed. Hockey is a game of stops and starts. How a player can use his edges is essential.
Regarding Foegele, he’s got 25+ goals in the AHL. Why does that just qualify him for a look as a 4th line player? If he can just score 20 goals in the NHL he would be considered a scoring depth forward. Let’s give him a chance at being that and then if the AHL scoring doesn’t translate to the NHL for something better than 4th line, then see how he performs on the 4th line. Let’s not sell him short from the get-go.
The fact that he does this in his first year in the AHL is impressive. He deserves way more of a shot than as a 4th liner. With the Canes proven lack of scoring ability why wouldn’t you give this guy a shot in the top 6? You rather see Gauthier?
I am with RedRyder on both Zykov and Foegele – having seen both play in Charlotte I think they are better than you indicate, Matt. I do think one at a time for a few games makes sense but I doubt we will see that until after the Devils games next week.
Slavin on the PP is due to Hanifin’s injury, of course, but he is showing he can play that role more effectively than when he got a tryout earlier in the season when the PP was in shambles. I think it might worthwhile to continue to give him experience there even after Hanifin returns, but I think that will really depend on how the team is doing on the 7-game plan.
If the 7-game plan is what I think it is, I expect we will see a split between Ward and Darling until the Devils game.
Is Aho at center better than Lindholm at center? Should both be playing center and have Ryan move to the wing?
Rask looked good centering the 4th line and suddenly Nordstrom is an offensive juggernaut. Although higher priced than a typical 4th-line center if he creates offense on that line – and he should because he is comparatively better than most 4th line centers, that money is better spent on him in that role than trying to save $2M by signing a lesser center.
To be clear on Foegele, because he is a strong two-way playing in all three zones, I think he is the perfect type of player to slot on the fourth line (if he looks capable) and then let his play dictate whether he stays there or moves up.
The good version of the Hurricanes forces a couple capable players like Foegele and maybe someone like McGinn down to the fourth line where they still put up 10-15 goals and constantly put pressure on the players above them to earn their ice time.
Guys in the top 6 need to play defense, too. Slotting a young talent that has shown he can excel in the AHL in his first year as a fourth liner makes no sense to me. Outside of Aho, Teravainen, and Staal the Canes have zero proven players that deserve top 6 minutes. (Skinner is an anomaly due to his style of play and defensive ineptitude) Including any of Rask, Ryan, Lindholm, and McGinn in your top 6 is waving the white flag. Give Foegele a chance to play. If he isn’t ready there is always room on the 4th line. Limiting his time to 8-10 minutes or so a game is no way to allow him to develop and adjust to the NHL game. Based upon his jump from the OHL to AHL he seems to be able to adapt quickly.
Actually, Matt, with Rask centering that 4th line there is already an offensive push there so I wouldn’t mind seeing Foegele on Rask’s wing as long as he is getting minutes.
I think that’s where I’m coming from…It’s 3 things:
1) Though defense important, the 4th line should have some ability to score.
2) If the 4th line is playing well, should see regular shifts. That does not mean 18 minutes per player, but it should mean a consistent 12ish minutes which is enough to impress and earn even more.
3) The way up the depth chart is earning it. If a 4th-line player is killing it, he moves up.
Agreed, Matt. A 4th line centered by Rask is different than a 4th line centered by Kruger (although I think Foegele has seen some time on Kruger’s line in Charlotte, Krugs is being played differently there). For the past two games the Rask line has been averaging about 12 minutes. As long as Foegele isn’t wasted on a checking line.
I really like Rask right now . He is a nice 3rd C an a really good 4th C.
Darling needs to play remainder of season. Needs to show promise for next season or send him packing. Nordy is a solid 4th line guy. I want players to get more ice time by what they deserve not by the name on the Jersey.
Prove you should stay on team for next season!
golden24, I also like Rask as 4th line center. Also like your comment about earning ice time and not just being awarded it.
Agreed. And while I think his ceiling is higher, the fact is Kruger’s cap hit is only a million less than Rask’s. And I think we can all agree, Rask is WAAAAAAY better a fourth line center than Kruger is. I’m just saying, that’s worst case scenario.
I think the difference between the talking and the walking regarding players having to earn their icetime is what ultimately dooms Bill Peters tennior as the headcoachof the Canes.
It was downright perplexing at times to hear the repeated mantra about having to earn icetime but then seeing the same players game in game out, at worst on a different line.
If we can’t use the Checker call ups directly, we could at least recall them and sit some of our roster players to send a real message.
I still wonder if we can somehow swap Rask for NH (the Oilers get a decent center at slight savings), maybe sweeten it up with Fleury, they are looking for D men.
At least if the Aho experiment ultimately does not look promising for next season.
We could also take on Sakera’s contract (he played well with Faulk) thus relieving some salary cap burden and giving the Oilers at least serviceable parts to go with their high end firepower.
I think Zykov and Voegele need an evalution look this season. Nobody expects them to be perfect, but with stellar AHL numbers they should get a little extra encouragement to work hard ovr the summer. And I think playing with the big club, even if it is only in a handful of games with little meaning, will be exciting for them, for the fans, and re energize the parent club a bit.
I’ve said what I’ve said many times about riding Darling hard from here out – I actually thought he was better last night.
I’m not sure about Slavin on the PP. I think we’ll see him because Hanifin is injured. Maybe we should audition him if we’re thinking of trading Faulk since we’ll need another D-man on point, but that might turn out to be Pesce or someone we bring in instead.
I haven’t checked the schedules and how much overlap there is (or isn’t), but I would like to see Foegele and Zykov for a run of games if it doesn’t jeopardize the Checker’s postseason. I think Wallmark is a known-entity at this point. Further, I wouldn’t dump them on the 4th line with Rask/Ryan, I’d insert them as if they were established NHL players to see what they can handle and whether they can match the skill/speed of our higher-end players.
Totally as an aside, Matt, I think it would be an interesting exercise to make a list of other players on other teams that are underperforming relative to their salary like Rask/Faulk. We aren’t the only team that has players like that. More than a few could probably increase production with a change of scenery. It’d be interesting to see a complete or even partial league-wide list.
Another initiative, Matt? – fixing the messed up GM search and the current state of the management side of the organization.
Three candidates have now declared their lack of interest in the Canes GM position. The scuttlebutt, easy to find, is that Dundon is scaring them away by wanting to be an active owner in hockey decisions and/or the team is lowballing GM candidates with a salary less than half the current league average.
The organization has indicated the GM search is “suspended” – what?? – leaving Waddell as the acting GM (seriously, he is very good on the business side but no cred on the hockey side).
Meanwhile Francis sits quietly in an observational/advisory role.
If true, this is seriously f-ed up and does not bode well for the future of the organization.
Have you heard this? – heard something different?
Hadn’t heard the lowball salary offer thing, but that seems counterintuitive to what Dundon has said about spending the money to create a quality product.
My worry about suspending the search is mostly in time spent in evaluation of the current problems. These other guys aren’t watching us like we’re watching us and I’ve read other fans talking about Faulk like he’s been a major asset.
A GM should know a team and it’s needs well before we get into free agency or draft time. You can’t get that unless you’re watching the team.