Not wasting anytime once the NHL markets reopened after the expansion draft, on Thursday not too long after the 1pm reopen, the Hurricanes traded goalie Alex Nedeljkovic to the Detroit Red Wings for a third round draft pick and negotiating rights to Jonathan Bernier. Bernier is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next week, so he represents not so much the return of a player but rather a few days head start in negotiations if he and the Canes are a good match for both.
The move was maybe not as surprising as some might think. The challenge with Nedeljkovic is that though he was scheduled to become a restricted free agent, he had arbitration rights. With strong results in an impressive even if small sample 2021-22 season, the upside comparable from his side was goin to be Jordan Binnington who received a two-year contract for $4.4 million after his Cam Ward-like rookie season that ended with a Stanley Cup win. Who knows how close Nedeljkovic could would have been to that ceiling, but with the unpredictability of arbitration the potential was there.
The decision
At the end of the day, I think it really came down to a single question — How much faith would they put in Alex Nedeljkovic based on 23 starts in a strong rookie seasonhow much risk were they willing to take?
Yes. Nedeljkovic was good in a small sample size, but I just do not think the team’s brain trust viewed him as a ‘the guy’ type of goalie and rightfully so considers him to be a bit riskier than a veteran with a longer track record. At the point when he was trying to play his way up from #3 slot to prove he could be a capable backup in 2021-22, he was a good fit at a budget-priced $1-1.5 million. That salary would have left as much room as possible for other deals and also left open the possibility of adding another goalie via trade during the season if things did not work out. But Nedeljkovic overshot that budget price and now had to be considered as a full price 1A/1B option. An the team basically out of the risk at that price.
What is next?
The burning question is what the team will now do in net. Petr Mrazek figures to still be in the potential mix but is unsigned meaning the Hurricanes have two slots to maneuver with.
Recent history
Recent history suggests that the team has a preference for middle-priced veterans versus going big for a higher-end #1. Petr Mrazek was initially signed as an inexpensive reclamation project and then only re-signed after a bit of a delay when he was available for a moderate place and short two-year term. Curtis McElhinney came from waivers and was not re-signed despite fitting in well. And James Reimer more than anything is what the Hurricanes had to take to unload Scott Darling. The Hurricanes era in three years under Don Waddell has exactly zero instances of the Hurricanes taking a pile of cash to the goalie market and being willing to pay any kind of premium.
If the Hurricanes follow that path, this off-season could be a good one for finding two medium-priced options. Jonathan Bernier whose negotiating rights were acquired in the trade (He becomes an unrestricted free agent next week.) is coming off a pretty good season with a Red Wings team was entered the season clearly in rebuilding mode. With Petr Mrazek also still in the mix that could be a tandem that would be pretty comparable to the Mrazek/Reimer duo that figured to do the heavy lifting last year.
Changing gears
With the Hurricanes trying push up another level in the playoffs, I argued recently that an upgrade or two in the bottom half of the roster were unlikely to be the difference. After standing pat last season, might trading Nedeljkovic be a precursor to taking a swing for the fences? If the Hurricanes decided to and were able to add a higher-end #1 goalie, it would be difficult to make $3 million or more work for the #2.
In my article on Wednesday, I noted Anaheim’s John Gibson as a intriguing option even before the team parted ways with Nedeljkovic. (That article also mentioned Jonathan Bernier.) You can read that HERE. I would have figured Nedeljkovic to be a logical part of such a trade, but who knows.
Other higher-end options who could be be available include Philipp Grubauer, Marc-Andre Fleury in the last year of his deal, Darcy Kuemper, a bit of a reclamation bet on Braden Holtby and a few others.
My two cents
Despite never being as high on Nedeljkovic as the consensus, I am not immediately a fan Thursday’s trade. It is not that I am completely sold on Nedeljkovic maintaining his level of play from 23 games in 2021-22. It is that with high-end starting goalies so difficult to find, I think that dice roll is worth keeping. Presumably the Hurricanes could have signed Nedeljkovic to the same two-year deal for $3 million per year or could otherwise have pushed for one year at a higher price or via arbitration. That would have given the team a full season to see if they had something special. The upside of finding a rarity in a franchise type goalie who is only 25 years old is incredibly high, whereas the downside would have only been going a year or two further. The downside risk would have been hedged pretty well by having a medium-priced 1B also on the roster. In general, I actually like the Hurricanes decisiveness in terms of making judgements on players early and unloading players who did not fit, but in this case I feel like the team sold low on a player whose upside, even if uncertain, was very high.
Per above, the one disclaimer that I make is that if the plan (and it works) is to add someone like Gibson and try to spend a bit less on the backup, I think then this move moves more sense.
Mark me down as first on John Gibson a couple days before the Nedeljkovic trade. 🙂 Still seems like a longer shot since he has not really even been declared available, but I think that is the kind of move that could make sense.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on off-loading Alex Nedeljkovic for a very modest return?
2) What do you figure the plan/strategy is for Canes netminding? Do you see this as an evaluation of Nedeljkovic and a preference to go with two veterans in a 1A/1B setup similar to the past couple years? Or do you think this could be the precursor to taking a swing for the fences with a higher-end goalie?
3) Who do you want for the Canes two goalies for 2021-22? Who do you think the team will sign?
Go Canes!
1. I’m increasingly at a loss to understand this. Ned signed a 2 X 3M deal with the Wings, I fail to see how something similar wasn’t on the table with the Canes, so the cost would’ve been 3 to 3.5 mill/year, which would’ve allowed signing another goalie in the range of to 2.5m to fill out the tandem (that’s still just over half the price of Price, who makes 11M) and about what Cam Ward made. Ned is a Canes drafted, “Canes develop guy who has always managed to rise to next level challenges.
In the regular season he was one of the top goalies in the league. He showed some cracks in the playoffs, especially when goals were at a premium against the Lightning, but still played well enough for the team to win on most nights. The epic game 4 collapse was on Mrazek’s watch I believe.
Requiring no more than a third round pick for a guy that’s been one of the showcases of the development program, it’s a bit of a, well “F U” so to speak, for a guy who is popular with the fans. I see no sense in it.
2. Maybe Mrazek + Reimer are back, or the team will take a gamble on one of the goalies in the system at a league minimum. Possibly JB will be signed, since the team traded for his rights, but I doubt he’d be willing to sign for less than 3.5M for 5 years, this is his last chance at a payday.
He is a pretty decent goalie with some left in the tank. I have my doubts about Mrazek and would’ve liked to see the Canes move on from him (great guy but prone to major inconsistencies).
To get someone like Fleury the team has to be good enough to win the cup. That’s a reputation the Canes could be close to building, but then they have to make 1 or 2 big “win now” additions this offseason.
1. My initial reaction was we were robbed after seeing that Ned signed for 2 years at $3M AAV with Detroit. But if Bernier can be signed for about the same amount to be the 1B then it is the less risky play and makes sense. Also, the Canes pick up a top 100 pick in the draft. Keep in mind that just a few months ago Ned could have been claimed on waivers for no return of assets.
2. The season schedule indicates 14 sets of back-to-back games. To minimize risk it appears that proven veterans will be signed to make up the goalie tandem. The Ned trade seems to be about managing risk as well as the salary cap. Our opinions are made without full knowledge of the situation; team chemistry may have been a factor. Being this close to Stanley Cup contention these deals become more important and scrutinized. It would not be a surprise if both Mrazek or Reimer are not resigned. If the internal budget for goalies is about $7M then a swing for the fences is unlikely. The search is probably for an established 1A.
3. Gibson is certainly an option but with 6 years remaining at $6.4M AAV he exceeds the cap budget. Darcy Kuemper could be targeted at $4.5M AAV.
On the surface, the deal doesn’t seem to make any sense: a home-grown goalie that played well in his rookie season; a team with no other signed goalies; and what seems to be a reasonable contract demand of $3-$3.5/2-years. All traded for a 3rd round pick.
It tells me a few things …
First, cap space must be at an even bigger premium than we realize, and even $500,000-$1M must matter on a risk/adjusted basis. We aren’t privy to the real math so maybe we don’t fully appreciate how this contract needs to fit into the bigger picture.
Second, there must be dialog with another team / another goalie that the team feels good about. There are currently no signed goalies or rights to any RFA goalies that have any NHL experience.
Third, if it wasn’t clear before now, this team is unafraid to make a decision and take action – that is to their credit, and almost the complete other end of the extreme compared to former GMRF (who I believe completely botched the Seattle draft, though the jury is still out given how much cap room they preserved and how many teams are desperate to dump salary – we’ve seen the Ghost and Ladd deals but the real action hasn’t started yet.)
Forth, it sends a clear message to Foegele and McGinn and others on their contract demands and what it will take to stay in CAR.
And fifth, maybe the team is angling to make a bigger move, whether that’s to re-sign Dougie (I’m not optimistic there) or to go after a higher-end needle-moving forward who wants to join a team pushing higher.
This group has generally made more right calls that wrong calls and I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
It’s been a long time for me to get back to this site. The doctors had to open me up for repairs and replacements (they unfortunately left the fat). But, demiller, I see you are still the same common sense, let’s not over react, maybe the team management might know more than us, calm guy with your analysis. I will add my comments later, but for now you have reflected most of my sentiments on what’s going on with the Ned deal.
Just to respond to (really just add to) your comments:
1. I don’t think we can initially evaluate this deal (Ned) without seeing who the Canes end up with as their goaltenders.
2. I remember a goalie (Mike Smith) who rambled around like Ned. It was good for one year and then opposing teams learned how to use this trait against him and Smith never became an elite or above average goalie.
3. Goalies in most cases excel at an above average level when they have a highly skilled team in front of them that play defense well AND score well and/or play a style which stresses good defensive play (examples…the Islanders, Boston, etc.). Otherwise, usually you get average or less than average results.
4. Last season was a covid biased season. Lots of games (3 in 4 days, etc.) compressed. How did that affect goalie play? Were goalies playing against teams that were essentially worn out half the time?
I add the above just to highlight how little we know about what’s really going on regarding player moves and/or performance. Still, the discussions by all (Breezy, Blinkman, Lessthanstable, raleightj, and all other contributors) make good reading and sure help with getting through the off season.
I agree that we should wait to see how the rest of the offseason brings. If there is a plan and if the Canes execute on it and ultimately ice a better roster next year, then the brain trust have done their homework.
I doubt it and I still feel strongly that a team should not throw away a homegrown asset with such high ceiling for next to nothing, that screams bad asset management.
As a side note, yes, the Seattle team looks pretty AHL like right now, especially at forward but, again, give them until the end of the wheeling and dealing season until we make the call.
The qustion is, is the salary cap the limit or is TD trying to nickle and dime the roster based on his internal limits. He has not been afraid to spend before, so it would be unfair to automatiaclly expect that right now, but in order to win the team really must have maximum talent at all positions and that requires either spending to the ceiling or brilliant asset management and some luck (i.e. pick good players coming from bad seasons and are willing to take a “prove it” deal).
NO matter what the next phase of the Canes plan holds, this deal was poor asset management.
I wish Ned all the best in Detroit and they may end up becoming my second fav team in the east.
I call “#1 Bullshit” on the reported numbers the Canes and Nedeljkovic’s camp were discussing. So according to a media source (the agent) Nedeljkovic would have accepted 2 x $3.5M from the Canes, but immediately accepted less from the Red Wings? Yeah, right. The agent asked for significantly more and the $3.5 number was about arbitration. He was putting the squeeze on the Canes trying to get a bigger number. Dundon called his bluff and sent Ned packing. This is a great example of don’t let your agent screw you out of a job you like.
He did sign for 2 X 3 mill with the Wings. If he, or his agent, truly believed they could get more, why didn’t they go to arbitration with the Canes?
I’m confused about all that, I always expect money to be the primary factor.
To be honest. Maybe he truly didn’t want to be with the Canes anymore.
Primarily because the Canes traded him. It did look like the Canes gave him and his agent the right to contact other teams and the Wings offered more than the Canes. If it had gone to player-requested arbitration the team would have had the right to refuse the award and Ned would be a UFA.
Ned got his deal effectively negotiating as a UFA.
And the team got something rather than the nothing they would have gotten turning down the future arb award.
raleightj, I never even thought of the this angle to things. Under this scenario Ned could have actually forced the Canes to make a move or lose him to free agency for nothing.
Considering what you have said, it makes me think the Canes were given a high bargaining number by Ned with Ned thinking he could get big dollars as a free agent if the Canes didn’t agree. The Canes called this “bluff” by trading Ned to Detroit since the only way they could have retained him was to pay Ned’s high number or the arbitrator’s high number. raleightj, Do I have this right?
Ned and his agent were using arbitration as the leverage – actually the only leverage a RFA truly has.
The number $3.5M was mentioned in the article summarizing Waddell’s interview with Sara Civian as Ned’s ask. But it would have gone to arbitration if the Canes kept him and Waddell admitted that Ned could make a case to the arbitrator for a salary from $3M up to $5M. The Canes didn’t want to risk that award and they were not willing to meet Ned’s ask.
Ned has since said that the Canes made a couple of offers thay he and his agent considered but subsequently rejected.
I really don’t think that the team and Ned were more than $1M to $1-1/2M apart.
But arbitration is leverage here.
And I don’t think it was a bluff. I think it was pay us what we want ($3.5?) or we go to arbitration. Did the Canes offer the $3M that he signed for with DET? – no answer there, but it was clear from Waddell’s comments they were not looking to devote that type of cap to Ned.
So I don’t think Ned was asking for an exorbitant amounts – the Canes were not going to rise to his ask.
If you read the interview Waddell did with Sara Civian there is no reason to guess what happened.
https://theathletic.com/2723264/2021/07/23/we-arent-trying-to-save-money-why-the-hurricanes-traded-alex-nedeljkovic-and-what-their-new-plan-is-in-net/
Ned and his agent were looking for a big payday and: (1) the Canes were not going to meet the $3.5M ask and (2) were afraid of arbitration – Waddell said Ned had a case that could take him to $3-5M. The Canes weren’t going to risk that. And the Canes weren’t going to pay Ned what the Wings offered. No knowledge of what the Canes offered but I think Matt has been correct in his ballpark estimate of $1.5-2M.
I don’t blame Ned for looking for his payday. He earned it through hard work and success.
And the Canes were not going to give up that type of cap space to Ned – a pure business decision.
So the Canes have to pivot, no longer having Ned as an inexpensive 1A/B option.
Waddell said the Canes are in a “win now” mode, so I expect they are gunnin for a much bigger name than Petr, and then having a lower paid 1B/2. You may be right about Gibson, Matt. I have also heard Grubauer.
The Canes are still talking with Hamilton and a news flash today from the rumor mill. The Canes are talking with Buffalo about Eichel. If there is a sign-and-trade sending Hamilton and a few other pieces to BUF for Eichel, you heard it here first.
I do not believe the Canes lowballed Nedeljkovic to the tune of $1.5-$2M per. That would be incredibly foolish because they knew he would get much more in arbitration. The agent says they would have taken $3.5 for two, but did they present that to the Canes, or were they asking for much more trying to work to that? Sometimes playing hardball sours a relationship and that can happen on both sides. What isn’t being reported is what was Nedeljkovic’s initial ask? What was his current ask when traded? Heard a few things and Nedeljkovic’s initial ask was allegedly huge. Dundon/Waddell see they are being squeezed and punt. Don’t blame them.
Teams/agents negotiating like it’s a zero sum game is problematic. Reports out of Columbus point a finger at their GM for rough negotiating to the point the players don’t feel wanted. So, they go.
There are reasons for everything and I certainly have no clue on this. The brain trust has done well, but at least for now this looks like a big mistake. It does not say much for home grown loyalty, for both sides. I believe with <, I think the agent was pushing and scare tactics. It could have cost Ned something he liked. Yah, money, but are you happy. I agree with the #1 BS. I am sure we are not told reality. TD probably said enough. The problem to send a message and make a point, we may not have shot ourselves not in the foot but in the head. Ned has excelled everyplace he has been and to let an asset like that go is a major screwup. I am wondering if they are concerned about an offer sheet for Svech, retaining cap to defend that.
We will see what the brain trust does. Right now seems like a major mistake but I will wait, close to going off the rails on this. Put me down for poor asset management as well. If you want talent it costs. We look like idiots.
So if the Red Wings offered more than the Canes (that “more” is 3m), the Canes were totally trying to lowball Ned, I mean 3M for his performance is super affordable, offering less than that, based on the year he had, would literally ben an insult, and it’s still one of the cheapest prices for a potential franchise goalie.
Again, the braintrust have info we don’t have and spend hours and hours every day thinking about how to win, but the eye test on him at all levels says this guy refuses to quit and finds a way to accelerate at every level.
RR went from Buffalo to Philly for a bunch of futures, including a first round pick, so the Canes would not have been able to pay that asking price.
Canes lowballing.
Also trading JB away for a second round pick (JB himself was a first rounder who was developing into an ok if not spectacular D man).
I hope there’s something left up the Canes’ collective sleeves, so far it seems to be addition by trading away whatever can’t be nailed down (for any return).
Don’t see how that’s going to improve the team for next season.
Looks a lot like Tom Dundon is going on a shopping spree! Yeah! I do think agents are asking for the moon right now and only a few guys are going to get that. The smarter teams will wait that out to see where prices settle.
What bothers me is the last time Dundon went shopping he bought Gardiner and Dzingel.
On Twitter today Matt called Bean a “miss”, and I have to agree with that assessment. I am betting we will see a column including that tomorrow. He was great in juniors and very good in the AHL – defensive player of the year – but he didn’t have NHL game and, in the end, RBA didn’t trust him. I think that was it fundamentally – Bean needed to be better to play for Rod.
Given the tradedowns in the draft picks I don’t really see a master plan, and Waddell did not suggest there was one. They are playing an opportunity game.
Agree about Bean, but until a few days of FA passes you really can’t say there is no “master plan.”
I have to agree with you. Bean did not turn out better than at best a third pairing D man with some offensive upside.
I wish the Canes had kept Fleury, Fleury + Hakenpaa would’ve made for a pretty reliable and cost effective third pairing and we’d be close to set on D, now it’s far from clear what it will look like next year. At least I’d pass on all the 3 big deals for D so far (forgot the trade of Larsen fro Az to the Canucks, the Cannucks are not doing themselves any favor with the 9M cap hit for a guy who’s been in decline for 3 years).
I would’ve liked to deal for Sam Reinhard (giving up 1 or 2 second rounds). I think he’s Buffalo’s most underrated forward.
In somewhat related news, D men are getting some big contracts.
Seth Jones 9.5m per (I think x8)
Kale Maker 9m per (either 6 or 7)
Surprised Dougie hasn’t been signed yet, but obviously he’ll want no less than 8.5 given these contracts.
That’s a lot of money for Jones, but he’s a two-way player. Makar is in another world. Colorado just locked him up for his prime years. Hamilton isn’t in his class.
The interesting thing is how is Colorado going to sign Landeskog and Grubauer? Could the Canes finally get Grubauer after trying unsuccessfully a couple years ago?
In today’s news conference Waddell said the team and Hamilton are getting closer to an agreement. Apparently Hamilton has found out the money isn’t as green as he was hoping for. But he needed to find that out – both sides did. Time will tell if he does sign.
I agree. I don’t think offensive defensemen have the value they had in the past. Two way D are now in vogue.
Great write-up, enjoying the speculation this off-season.
On the CanesCast with Dr Eric Tulsky, did anyone else catch the flat salary comment? Tulsky called it a $93m~ salary cut spread over the league, because when contracts were negotiated 3 years ago, a salary cap increase was factored into all team budgets. Now with two years of no increase, Tulsky ask, without answering, “Which players are going to take that paycut?”
A cap increases disparity: Elite stars aren’t taking a hit (see Cale Makar); middle six forwards get pushed closer to the league minimum. Geekie’s great two year deal was likely a favor in Seattle’s selection. Back to the article, Ned’s arbitration rights was too much cost uncertainty.
With that logic, even though the 1A/1B seems to work on ice, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1/2 price structure.