A few hours after the news dropped, I posted my initial thoughts on the Hurricanes extending Brett Pesce for six years at $6.025 million per year. If you have not read that article, I recommend reading it before this article which starts more at a second level of detail.
The “sixth star” (an ode to Glen Wesley)
Things could change if Pesce finds his way onto the power play and/or boosts his scoring, but the current trajectory has him slotted to be an underrated glue player. A long time ago when Wesley was in his prime, I used to use the term “sixth star” to describe his play. Wesley rarely scored, mostly steered clear of the highlight reel and did not do enough on the stat sheet to regularly be a top 3 and earn a star of the game. But when the Hurricanes were good on home ice, he was very regularly steady and solid lining up against Crosby and/or Malkin one night, Kovalchuk and Heatley the next and Ovechkin and Semin the next. He just quietly did the defensive work necessary to make it possible for a few players to rise up with a few plays on the score sheet and win a hockey game. Players like this are generally underrated but critical to a team’s success. Niklas Hjalmarsson long filled this role on perennially successful Blackhawk teams, and the Penguins have always had a knack for having a capable defense-first defenseman to sit behind more offensive-minded blue-liners like Sergei Gonchar and Kris Letang.
It is reasonable to hope for continued development from Pesce who is entering only his third season in the NHL, but if instead he simply does what he did in 2016-17 being a sound and steady, Wesley-like defender against the other teams’ best scorers, that in itself will be a significant contribution to the next leg up for the Hurricanes franchise.
Together or apart?
The Hurricanes struggles on the road through the middle part of the season was a clear testament to the need to have two solid defense pairings, especially away from home. And one way to accomplish that is to balance the top 4. So it follows that splitting up Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin could be one way to boost the second pairing and with it the defense in total.
While I get the merit of balancing out the top 4 and acknowledge that it could work, my starting point for almost all things pairing/combination-wise is the follow the simple motto, “If it ain’t broke; don’t fix it.”
And I lean toward that approach with regard to Slavin/Pesce. For me, this preference is driven not by the fact that both are good players, but rather the fact that they meshed incredibly well and seemed to find chemistry instantly. Though both players are good in their own right, I think they were very clearly a case of 1+1=3.
When you consider their style of play and skill sets, I think it makes a ton of sense. Both players are naturally aggressive on the puck and attack which takes away time and space. Especially against elite playing the puck aggressively aggressively and taking away time and space is critical. If you give the top players time to do what they want, they will inevitably create a scoring chance even if you are in good shape positionally. So both players have a natural tendency and pretty good judgement on when to attack the puck. The duo was as good as any combination I can think of in Hurricanes history in terms of standing up and not conceding the blue line. But in addition to being aggressive, Slavin and Pesce had a good knack for reading off each other and making sure that when one was stepping up, the other was adjusting and anticipating to fill in behind in the instances where they misjudged the timing or maybe lost a puck battle. When combined, the result was a style of play that aggressively played the puck but paired that with a pretty good understanding of how to support each other to minimize damage when one of them ‘oopsed.’
Is offensive production still to come for Brett Pesce?
I touched on this in my initial thoughts. I do not see Pesce as having quite the same upside as Hanifin, Slavin, Faulk or maybe even Fleury in terms of creating offense by carrying the puck through the neutral zone and then dishing off the rush. Pesce’s tendency is a bit more old school moving the puck forward quickly and then following it up the ice.
But I actually think he has goal scoring upside 5-on-5 because of his ability to correctly read when he should be playing like a third or fourth forward when his team has an advantage entering the offensive zone. The result is fairly regularly finding the puck on his stick to step into a shot between the offensive blue line and the face-off circle. If Pesce can continue to step into the right holes, the Hurricanes have players like Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Elias Lindholm who will find him. From there, it is just a matter of upgrading his shot in terms of release, accuracy and consistency. Even if his point totals are low, collecting 7-8 goals at even strength would be a significant contribution from a defenseman.
What say you Canes fans?
If you did not chime in yesterday, what is your level of ecstatic between 1 and 10 with having both Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce locked up long-term?
Do you think Pesce has a higher gear in terms of scoring production, or should we just be thrilled to have his solid 22ish minutes per night defensively in the lineup?
If you were Coach Peters, would you separate or keep together Slavin and Pesce?
Go Canes!
1. Very pleased to see Pesce signed long-term! And hey, keep a UNH guy is worth it 🙂
2. I believe he has a higher gear offensively, and as you pointed out and agree, Wesley in his earlier days did as well. But to me I’m okay if he slots anywhere between #2-#4 playing quality minutes and giving us what we need most (steady D play at a fair price). We may have some younger offensive studs in the D-pipeline, so even if Pesce ended up being a reliable top 4…then that is still a score!
3. Keep them together until someone else otherwise deserves and earns top pairing minutes. We could easily see one of Hanifin or Fleury claim that spot in 1-2 years. I’d keep Faulk at #3. Chemistry plays a huge part in this, and I agree to not mess with what works at the moment.
Level of excitement – 9.5 Both are great deals for the Canes now. I feel both could have gotten more AAV. As long as they don’t regress. Drawing the top D matchups and being in the 20’s in +/- is remarkable! I think its great for these guys too.
Thrilled to have his solid top Minutes at his current level. He really does elevate everyone on the ice with his intelligence. I think he will increase his production but it will be limited. The ceiling is lower on his goal output, but that’s not the most important part of his game. I would be thrilled with 6-8 (5v5) goals.
They are the most effective pair together. Their +/- numbers attest to it. Anyone watching can quickly see that they are our top 2 D.
Quick Fun Story. Skip it if you don’t like point of view conversations where you know either parties :p
I brought a hockey buddy from Richmond to Raleigh to watch a game last year, Mid season. Canes Vs. Islanders. Before the game, My buddy Mitch was looking over the program. He said who is this Pesce? He is the best player on your team and Ive never heard of him.. I said, where do you get that he is the best player? He responded with… he is leading your team in +/- so he is your best player. I kinda laughed at the generalization and we talked a bunch about his theory. Enjoyed the game and a few adult beverages… Walking back to our tailgate area and firing the grill back up… he said Pesce is the type of player you need on your team to win… and he said again.. he is your best player and his play reflects his stats. He also thought Slavin was a beast.
I love the Hjalmerson comparison, I totally see Brett Pesce as similar to the Hammer.
I kind of agree with you as well about switching the D pairings. I actually took a look at the GF% of our d pairings last year, and the highest net GF% in our top 4 is actually:
Slavin – Faulk (they ranked about 5% higher than the combo of slavin and pesce)
Hanifin – Pesce (who ranked the same GF% as when Hanifin went with Faulk post trade deadline).
When it comes to pure balance, I like this set up a bit better because I find each pairing comes with a guy who tends their own zone first and one guy who is more of a pusher. However, I also did not realize until Slavin got away from playing with Faulk that he had such a high offensive ceiling.
I feel playing Slavin with Faulk might hurt Slavins offensive upside. Yet, these are great problems to have. No matter who Slavin plays with it’s going to be great, it just depends on if they want Slavin to be the puck mover of the pairing (then play with Pesce) or the defense first guy (play with Faulk).
I am all for trying Hanifin and Faulk together again, however that is not a pairing that will be able to handle hard defensive matchups meaning Pesce and Slavin will be logging some very challenging defensive minutes.
1/ Very excited for Pesce and the team, love the term and the AAV. And best of all, we save a $1-mil/year from the salary cap model I put together a few weeks ago.
2/ I think there is more to his offensive game but I also am not sure that the team is looking for him to score more or even needs it. I would be thrilled if he continues to develop and does not regress defensively or lose chemistry with Slavin.
3/ I’d keep them together until it stopped working. The league will adjust to playing against Slavin/Pesce, but until they suffer, or until our other pairings struggle, I’m with you on “if if ain’t broke don’t fix it.”
1. The signings combined are a 10. Very pleased at a number of different levels – we have excellent young D who will only get better; they will be a part of the Canes identity for a long time; and they are solid guys off the ice.
2. Whether he has a higher gear offensively is not really an issue going forward, as far as I am concerned. He is a shut-down defender who can move the puck. If he was reluctant to join the rush I would be concerned. But he is not. He is going to continue to get his chances. And you are right, Matt, as his shot improves he will see the back of the net more.
3. I go back and forth on this. Definitely a top pairing, but Peters is very opportunistic with how he sets lines and pairings. He goes with what works on the ice that game. I do enjoy watching them paired up.
Yessssss, “WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE”? Good deal all-around!
Keep them together, unless other pairings aren’t working…!
The price is right.
1.Very happy with both signings. Extremely reasonable price for Top 4 D. Cost certainty for the Canes. Ron is a great GM!
2. Pesce may have higher offensive ceiling, but its not really important. Its his defensive capability that he is getting paid for. I do think he will score more by virtue of his ability to join the attack at the right times. As offensive playmakers develop, he will have more opportunities
3. While I love the Slavin/Pesce pairing, not sure that is the best use of them. Going forward, Bill gonna have to decide the best mix of offensive/defensive strengths on each pairing. Hanifin, Faulk and Slavin all have offensive upside. Pairing Hanifin with Faulk will limit one, if not both, of them offensively. Need guys like that to play to their strengths and not restrain themselves to protect the back end. That’s the value of Pesce, imo. He allows Faulk or Hanifin or Slavin to play to their strengths. Not sure how TVR and ultimately Fleury fit, but we don’t want another Murphy-type situation where an offensively gifted Dman can’t play to his strengths (Murphy had many other issues, but the general point stands)
Very pleased. A 10 for signing both Slavin and Pesce. The analytics said Peshe was a little better defender while Slavin was better offensively. This is a great pair. I really though Peshe would get a higher AAV. Time will tell but these appear to be great moves.
I do think as Pesce gains experience he will contribute a little more offensively. He is a very solid shut down defender, so do not digress like Faulk did with more offense at the expense of defense. I am thrilled if he maintains the defense he is capable of.
I would tend to keep them together but BP does situational things, so if he feels he needs to mix it up I am sure he will.
Very Excited! I thought Pesce would get more. I hope this doesn’t build any resentment internally… I’m sure he is more mature than that!
I think Pesce’s offense will increase.