After about a week on summer break for reader/guest week, Daily Cup of Joe returns today.
If you missed any of the eight reader and guest articles this week, you can find the last reader article and a clickable menu for the other seven articles HERE.
Phil Di Giuseppe re-signed
Today it was announced that the Hurricanes had re-signed Phil Di Giuseppe to a one-year, two-way contract with a $725,000 NHL salary and a $125,000 salary. I would presume that the holdup was probably some effort by Di Giuseppe’s side to receive a one-way contract, but with a modest 2016-17 season with significant time in the NHL and minimal offensive production at the NHL level, Di Giuseppe’s leverage would have been minimal.
The contract affords the team some flexibility with 13 forwards already on one-way contracts though it is important to note that Di Giuseppe is no longer waivers exempt. That means that he would receive an AHL salary if he makes it to the AHL, but it also means that the other 30 NHL teams would have the chance to claim him before he made it to Charlotte.
Status on NHL’s 50-contract limit
In addition, the deal puts the Hurricanes at 49 out of a maximum 50 contracts with a couple wild cards. The 49 does not include Jake Bean or Janne Kuokkanen.
For Bean, his contract would only count if he played 11 games at the NHL level; otherwise he is destined for another year in juniors and would not count.
Kuokkanen’s situation is a little fuzzier. He too could return to juniors and not count, or he could return to Europe and not count. But if instead he jumps to the AHL (which I believe is possible since he was drafted as a European player) or sticks at the NHL level, then his contract would count.
Martin Necas is the other wild card and another European. If he plays in Europe or jumps the pond to play juniors, his deal would come off the books. If he instead surprises and makes the NHL squad or plays in the AHL, then his contract would count.
So the way to think of it is that the Hurricanes really have 48 contracts committed right now with three wild cards in Bean, Kuokkanen and Necas if any of them play at the NHL or AHL level (AHL only possible for Necas and Kuokkanen).
Where Phil Di Giuseppe fits right now
With Derek Ryan and Brock McGinn both receiving one-way contracts, I think it is fair to slot Di Giuseppe at #14 (below all of the players on one-way deals or with certain NHL slots) on the depth chart. That suggests that in order to see NHL ice time, he either needs to impress and move up in training camp or move up because of injuries. The fact that he must clear waivers to go to the AHL could cause Francis to pause in sending Di Giuseppe to the AHL even if he is not a regular in the lineup.
With the move to add two experienced checking line forwards in Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris, the fourth line looks fully stocked to start training camp. Di Giuseppe will need to impress in preseason to bump someone else out of the lineup reclaim a role. The best way to do so would be to show signs of finding a higher gear scoring-wise. If unable to do that, Di Giuseppe is just another depth checking line forward with minimal upside and likely loses the roster battle to other players who have more penalty kill experience.
In addition to being on the outside looking in among the 14 experienced NHL players, Di Giuseppe really needs to hustle in terms of carving out a role before the pack of young forwards, many with fairly high-end scoring potential, overtake him on the depth chart.
Still waiting for upside
I am both biased and so far wrong, but my assessment of Di Giuseppe has continued to be that he could be close to breaking through. (See his 2017-18 report card HERE.)
But that is not at all what happened in 2016-17. His scoring touch was nowhere to be found in a 2016-17 season that saw him score only one goal and net seven assists in 36 games at the NHL level. At that scoring pace, Di Giuseppe is exactly the serviceable fringe AHL/NHL player that his contract suggests.
But in my opinion, he was the best of the depth forwards in terms of forechecking and physical play and was reasonably sound defensively, and he did a decent job of putting himself in position to shoot. I continue to think that if he can just slow things down a little with the puck on his stick that he has a higher gear.
But both time and volume of opportunities to prove that are clearly running low at this point. He needs to either light it up in preseason or hope an injury or two yields regular season ice time to carve out ice time and a role before it is too late.
The bigger picture at forward
With a couple veteran additions in July and a herd of prospects on the way, the Hurricanes are becoming deeper at forward. I still think that the team is light on prove top 6 scorers, but the ability to fill the bottom 6 with experienced players is increasing. In addition, the probability of finding at least depth scoring in the prospect pool is also increasing as the number of options is growing.
Right now (and without getting completely bogged down in line numbers and combinations, I see the Hurricanes lineup as follows:
Skinner / Rask / Williams
Aho / Staal / Lindholm
Teravainen/ Ryan / Stempniak
Nordstrom / Kruger / Jooris
Trying to steal a roster slot: McGinn, Di Giuseppe, prospects.
The Hurricanes’ depth at least in terms of filling the bottom 3-4 forward slots is significantly improved from only a couple years ago. Entering training camp with a couple decent players with NHL experience in McGinn and Di Giuseppe on the outside looking in is exactly what a team wants.
What say you Canes fans?
Am I the only one who thinks that Phil Di Giuseppe is closer than his scoring production indicates to breaking through and winning/keeping a slot?
Which, if either, of McGinn and Di Giuseppe do you think has a chance to rise up in training camp and seize ice time?
Go Canes!
What I saw last season was flashes of good play from both DiGiuseppe and McGinn. The question is which one can fit in on the fourth line. The numbers indicate both do well when playing with Staal, Teravainen, or Lindholm. This year one of them will have to produce playing with Kruger and Nordstrom or the last spot will belong to Jooris. I think McGinn is more likely to challenge/overtake Jooris.
I would challenge the concern about the top 6 scoring. In a literal sense it is true that neither Lindholm nor Teravainen have had a 20-goal season. But the Canes were early to the analytics bandwagon and are committing payroll to improving through data. And the data are pretty clear that both are top six. In fact the combination of Teravainen and Lindholm is elite (http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/spider/1617/CAR/lindhel94/wrap). Every article I have read argues that Corsi and other shots for/against measures are far superior to goals scored for predicting future scoring. Also, Corey Sznadjer linked to some articles about playing styles. My guess is that both Lindholm and Teravainen are “playmakers.” That style is the most likely to succeed and when paired with another playmaker is most effective.
So I think the best lines might be (without intentionally bogging):
TT/Staal/Lindholm
Aho/Rask/Williams
Skinner/Ryan/Stempniak
In any event, the data suggest that both TT and Lindholm are going to have better, possibly even much better, numbers this year. As far as fourth line and DiG or McG, Kruger is a significant upgrade from McClement so Nordstrom and whoever wins the other wing position should see better numbers, if not more scoring.
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I wish I understood all of these Corsi diagrams I see posted. I understand the shots against and shots for, but what are all the boxes with numbers in them and what do those numbers mean? And the numbers to the side, “minutes with 16” and “percent of 16”? Huh? Sorry, if I’m just being an idiot, but I’d take a lot more interest in and have more respect for analytics if I had some clue what most of theses graphs mean.
ed. The ones you specifically mention are fairly straightforward. Let’s say Player A plays 50 minutes. Let’s say of those 50 minutes Player B is also on the ice for 20 of those minutes. “Minutes with A” would be 20 and “Percent of A” would be 40. Of course, A’s “Percent of A” would always be 100.
OK, that makes a lot more sense now, thanks. I guess I should’ve realized those were player numbers. Anyhow, thanks for the clarification.
Great insight Matt.
Whether conscious or not, I think you keyed in on a few big things with regard to DGP and McGinn.
I view both as tweeners: they don’t have the skill to be top 6, and they don’t have all of the lunch pail energy traits needed for the 4th line.
As you note, DGP isn’t a penalty killer. He’s shown some flash, but expecting him to explode with 20 goals is unrealistic. That means (To me) he’s fighting for a spot on the 3rd line.
Frankly, outside of a lights out top flight scorer, the 3rd line has the most room to improve of anywhere on the team. I mean no offense to Ryan, but with his frame I see him as emergency depth best case, and while Stempniak is a solid contributor, he’d be pushed off a lot of deeper rosters.
The team building is starting to show results. I think we’ll see competition in camp for bottom 6 spots, with a few younger guys pushing. My guess is movement will come either in the 3rd line or via trade.
This contract essentially says “prove it.” Prove you belong. Show us you’re worthy of a roster spot and a better contract. I’m pulling for him, we’ll see what happens.
Section 328 had a similar take to yours, Matt, just last night. My sense is that PDG has more offensive upside than McGinn (although that might be arguable), Nordstrom, and Jooris. However, in the grand scheme of things he’s not as good in the defensive zone and doesn’t really kill penalties.
PDG may end up being the #14, but I think the team feels ambivalent about his chances at clearing waivers. They may give it a chance, but who knows. A team like Colorado or Vancouver could really use his skill set as he most likely slots in as a 3rd liner (assuming he regains his scoring touch). Realistically, he is probably more likely to battle Stempniak than McGinn or Nordstrom. If he does bust out in camp, it might make Stemper available.
But in the end, he may end up getting moved for a pick or with a pick for a higher quality asset.
Driving into work I thought about the chart linked in my earlier comment. I understand that one chart or data set is suspect. But let’s say that chart is valid. The optimum line is Skinner/Rask/Lindholm. Then TT needs to be utilized on a top line based on the metrics. So TT/Staal/Williams. I didn’t like leaving Aho to a third line with Ryan and Stempniak. However in my job I need to trust the data and determine what opportunities they present.
Then it struck me. Playing with Ryan and Stempniak might allow Aho to develop as a center against modest opposition. It gives the organization an opportunity to groom a potential 1C while optimizing the current line combinations.
Again I might be off base and misreading the analytics. But this is what I meant yesterday when I stated that Peters and Tulsky are the keys to this season. The organization has strong talent. It just needs to be utilized fully.
Watching what happens with the C3 slot will be interesting.
In their media session right after the season ending, Peters/Francis said pretty clearly the intent was to leave Lindholm and Aho at wing near-term. But at the same time, they have also said that they could see either (especially Aho) eventually becoming a center. But at that time, Francis was also saying that he was looking to add at the forward position. He did not say this part as directly, but I said from the very beginning that the need was a top 6, difference-making center. I think Francis ideally wanted to add the same, but such a deal has not materialized.
So long intro aside and per CTCaniac’s comments, I will be curious to see if without a top 6 center added to the mix if the move is accelerated for Aho or Lindholm out of necessity. With Staal and Rask and a growing amount of scoring-capable wings to spread around, there is the possibility of slotting Aho in a C3 slot, still playing him with scoring-capable players and being a bit selective with match ups until he settles in.
Can’t wait for training camp to begin seeing how it all shakes out.
Welcome back, Matt.
If you rewind to 2015-16 when both came up to the NHL for the first time, PDG seemed to settle in faster and McGinn was the one who was sent down first. Fast forward a year, and McGinn was the player that carved out a bigger role and progressed while PDG sort of went sideways (or backwards a little). So when you look at it over a 2-year period, it’s not all that surprising that GMRF bet more on McGinn than on PDG – he’s the player showing the more consistent path upwards – though it should be said that he really hasn’t bet much on either.
Contracts aside, I think both are at serious risk of being leapfrogged by any number of prospects in the system with more offensive upside, even as early as later this year. There are plenty of roles to fill on a team, and since it doesn’t seem like either player has a Top-6 ceiling, I would hope they would each hone in on a specific role where they could excel to make themselves less expendable, kind of like Nordstrom has done on the PK.
In the end, there certainly does seem to be a logjam at the bottom of the roster and PDG and McGinn are part of it. I don’t think either has all that much value in a trade and a waiver claim isn’t the end of the world – it might even open up avenues that don’t exist in Raleigh.
Training camp is going to be the most interesting it’s been in quite some time with all the competition for roster spots and slotting. If there is any room for a positive surprise by one of our prospects, it would seem GMRF’s trading days this offseason aren’t over.
I had a number of thoughts on the limited prospects for PDG with the Canes. I know we don’t typically have 14 F’s on the roster, so we may see a trade or a possible loss on waivers.
That said, in 2015-16 PDG saw 3rd line action, and occasionally 2nd line. This season he appears to be competing for a spot in the press box. That says a lot for today’s “State of the Canes”.
It is going to be very interesting what happens during training camp. One thing to remember is that PDG and McGinn were the two initially protected during the expansion draft. During that time things were very fluid and I do not think RF knew that he would be able to protect all our players. That would say looking forward he felt they had the best long term upside. Look who was not protected initially, Stempniak and Nordstrom. Nordstrom is good on PK but has offered little scoring. I am not so sure he is penciled in to the 4th line like many think. I think his position is vulnerable. I suspect the move to protect all our players was mainly to protect Stempniak. He is a 50-40 point guy. I do not see him getting pushed off, even on a stronger team. I also think Ryan could still break out. The guy is pure determination.
I believe Jooris was acquired before we know we could get Kruger. The first attempt at making the 4th line better. Kruger is the only guy I would consider a lock on the 4th line. All others are competing for those two 4th line positions, PDG included. I said a while ago that between PDG and McGinn, I gave the edge to McGinn because of his physical play (which I felt was a little above PDG) but PDG did not do so well (yet) in goal scoring. Remember who were protected initially.
So, which, if either, of McGinn and Di Giuseppe do you think has a chance to rise up in training camp and seize ice time? Both. I do not believe the 4th line is as locked up as some think.
With the logjam it would not surprise me if somebody is moved if we need some contracts back. That may not happen until the assessment at training camp.
One thing to remember and Peters’ actions have reinforced his words, Coach BP has consistently said that putting a scorer on the 4th line doesn’t put him in a position to succeed. That’s why PDG spent most of his time on 2nd and 3rd lines. Simply put, he’s got some offensive skills that languish on a typical 4th line. Brock McGinn, however, has both some offensive upside and a polished defensive game. So he doesn’t “languish” on a 4th line. This may simply be a case where Peters doesn’t want to waste DiGiuseppe’s talent and is hoping that he’ll earn a spot higher up the roster. Failing that he’s got a very good AHL player who serves as the “1st call up”.
As those above have said, this is a function of improved depth and improved overall skill level of the team.
RF protected PDG for a reason. I do not see him competing with Stempniak (a 40-50 point guy). He has not shown to be anywhere near that level, yet. He was really weak scoring last year and I know he has more to offer then that. Agreed, RF could be using him in a 3rd or 2nd line occasionally to see if he can contribute for the next year. Stempniak may likely be gone next year. He is getting older but can still excel and who knows, could be resigned. Anyway, a lot of moving parts, it hard to say how this works out and the possibility of additional trades still exist.
Not to be too picky but Lee Stempniak has put up 50+ points in a season twice and it happened 10 years apart. He’s a lifetime 43 point guy, so at this juncture of his career I view him closer to a 40 point guy than a 50 point guy. And that’s a pretty significant difference. Between PDG, McGinn, potentially Jooris, and the long shot that Gauthier bulls his way on the team, Lee Stempniak’s position is one that would be considered “in play”. He’s more than likely going to retain it, but it is no slam dunk….similarly, Ryan will be challenged by Wallmark and potentially Kuokkanen and Saarela. In the end I think the vets hold on to their positions, but it will be a competition.
I do agree that outside of the 4C role, the other two wings spots are an open competition. As good as Nordstrom is on the PK, that’s not going to guarantee him a job if McGinn, PDG, or Jooris show nearly as well in that role but excel offensively (or at least at a higher perceived clip than Nordy).
notopie. I don’t think Nordstrom is a lock. I do think he is the most likely of the group to be on the 4th line. His offense is not really that bad given who he has been paired with. I for one would take 7 goals from each of the 4th-liners. Also, he is still fairly young. Then again his youth and 2-way skills might make him easier to trade.
A couple thoughts… despite analytics (and old-fashioned stats),
guys have to score (going forward). To keep a spot in the top6…
therefore, players must contribute, SOOOO the roster will shake out, early on, and somebody could be trade-bait. I can see RF swapping player(s) for picks, clearing roster slots. If this happens, maybe a prospect or three will get an opportunity here.
Alternatively, if some of the prospects (or new guys) look ready, a team with injuries could come calling for help, in exchange for something WE NEED!
Our glut of 3rd/4th liners could be a good thing…?
All good points PG. I’d expand your Top 6 to Top 9. The 3rd line on this team will be expected to put up as many points at the top 2 lines…and I believe that’s how the team is constructed.