Entering the dog days of the hockey summer where new news is rare, today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers up a short collection of player notes with a higher or lower theme. Though the baseline is arbitrary, the idea is to comment on whether I am higher or lower on certain Canes players or aspects of their game compared to what I perceive the average (hence arbitrary) being. If my memory is correct, there is probably some partially borrowed material on Fleury and Wallmark. Sorry, we are approaching mid-July when some amount of repeats is unavoidable if the goal is daily Canes content and discussions.
Haydn Fleury – Potential for a higher ceiling – Higher
I think I am higher on Haydn Fleury than many. My assessment of his 2018-19 season is that he established himself as a competent bottom pairing forward who was light offensively even for that role and really did not bring much for upside past being serviceable. In short, I think that makes him a #6/#7 defenseman which is not great for a #5 overall draft pick who is now 23 years old. But I think where I am higher on him than most is the potential for upside. As a big kid who skates pretty well, the basic physical tools are there. And only 87 games into his NHL career, I think it is premature to declare that Fleury has for certain reached his ceiling and just is what he is at this point. Finally, even if Fleury does not take another significant step development-wise, his low scoring ways should keep his salary in line with his role as a depth defenseman. Again, that was not the hope when he was drafted, but it is still a useful role.
Lucas Wallmark – Offensive upside – Lower
Using the 2018-19 season as a starting point just like for Fleury, Wallmark had a very strong season when you consider his starting point. He entered the season as a player with 19 games of NHL experience and by winter had grown to become a player who filled Jordan Staal’s challenging role as a match up center against the league’s best while the team was surging up the standings. That is an impressive rise in the course of three months and is legitimately a great starting point for building a great case for more yet to come from Wallmark entering only his second full season in the NHL. I know that many of the regulars are high on Wallmark, and I look forward to the great two-sided debate that will inevitably follow below.
As much as I like what Wallmark did in 2018-19 establishing himself as a heady two-way center, I question whether he maybe is a player who just hit his ceiling as a solid checking line center quickly maybe somewhat like Josef Vasicek years ago or countryman Victor Rask more recently. My skepticism on Wallmark having significant upside offensively going forward comes from consideration of his skill set. Though Wallmark is well-rounded, I just do not see enough dynamic in his skill set for more than a modest step-wise improvement scoring-wise. He lacks a quick burst of speed, shifty agility or raw straight line speed that could enable him to generate offense with his skates, and while I do think his smarts are an advantage, I just do not see the ceiling as being that high. The counter point is that he does have a history a getting his feet under him and making gains from there. Here is hoping that that is exactly what happens, and that I will have to eat crow if we revisit this next summer.
Justin Williams – Leadership – Higher
I do not so much think that many people who followed the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes closely underestimate what Williams did as a leader in a transformation in culture and attitude, but I do think that some might underestimate the team’s readiness to carry forward from there without him. No doubt the team in total benefited from Williams’ leadership. His role as the captain of the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes will pay dividends into the future. And the team will eventually transition to a next captain, but my opinion is that the team would greatly benefit from one more year of Justin Williams wearing the ‘C’. My concerns about a hasty Justin Williams departure after only one year as captain are twofold. First, I am not sure the captain is ready yet because my thinking is that the next long-term captain is not Justin Faulk or Jordan Staal but rather someone from the next wave of younger players. As such, I think another year or so of watching and learning would be beneficial. Second, I think 2019-20 could represent a challenging transition during with the team must go from being an underdog with mostly upside and no expectations to being a team that needs to return to the playoffs to have a successful year. If that gets coupled with injuries or other adversity, I think a veteran leader could be critical in navigating this new challenge.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of my three ‘higher or lowers’ for Haydn Fleury, Lucas Wallmark and Justin Williams do you agree with? Which do you disagree with?
2) Who has other opinions on other players that they as being higher or lower than what the consensus might be?
Go Canes!
1. With Fleury, I agree and disagree. He hasn’t approached his capability – and his lack of a goal isn’t for lack of being active. He shoots from the point, he participates in the rush, and he pinches at times – the puck hasn’t gone in.
Where I disagree is that I think it is likely that Bean will displace him as LHD on the 3rd pairing.
You don’t give enough credit to Wallmark. He is an offensive-minded center. He is also going to play the role he is assigned. And that limited him last season and, if he is slotted to be the 4C this season, that will limit him this season. He will play the role and he will be successful. He is cut from the cloth of a 3C NHL center with great opportunistic potential.
I am probably one of the few who is not a believer in the “Williams leadership” mystique. Did he really need a letter to be a team captain in the 2017-18 season. True leaders don’t need a letter. And he was captain of the team that on 12/31 was 4th from last in the league and we were hearing all the tired tropes and cliches from him and others on the team after the all too frequent losses in December. Is that leadership?
The team developed a winning culture after the first week of January by…winning. And Jw could become the captain of a winning team. But the change had nothing to do with him and he was able to ride along as the captain of a winning team and get said credit. But no, I don’t buy into it.
2) What is the consensus on the other players??
*o be a team leader in the 2017-18 season.
Williams comments are jaw dropping. So wrong, IMO. When the team struggled Williams and Brind’amour said to keep doing the right things. They did and things turned around. No major changes like all the experts in the media and online demanded. Just play the game the right way. It’s so easy to cheat and try to do too much when things aren’t going the right way. The Canes didn’t and gave us a thrilling season. Williams was the leader. The comments from Canes players do nothing but back that up.
As far as leading without a letter…it’s difficult to lead when your coach doesn’t want you on the team much less wearing a letter.
+Your opinion and mine on this differ. I am cool with that.
Come on now. You’re just trolling us.
Disagree with Fleury, Wallmark, and don’t really understand the Williams comments!
Wallmark has improved the last three years, why should that change?
Fleury has shown minimum improvement each year, and I don’t know how that changes.
Williams is a star…he will be until he wants to retire!
That’s all you need to know!
I think Fleury has more in him. The coaching staff hasn’t had a lot of faith in him. Maybe that is deserved. None the less it appears he will get every chance to play this season. Hopefully he shows the confidence he shows when he plays in the AHL. As far as Bean taking his spot, that will be a tough thing to do. Bean can still go up and down without clearing waivers. I believe Fluery will have to clear waivers this season? Not sure, but I think so.
I think there is a bit more to Wallmark, but it may come more in the grit category than the skill category. Wallmark plays a heady defensive game and is good in the faceoff circle. I agree with Matt that his skating and skill level doesn’t suggest much of a scorer to me. Just the same, you need solid players like Wallmark in the bottom six. I think he may rack up more points this season, but not enough to make a huge difference.
I am neutral on Williams. His leadership was key to a young team that hadn’t been there before. Now they’ve been there, but it’s good to have a rock in the lineup you can count on. Hockey wise, I think it will be nearly impossible for Williams to duplicate what he did last season. He’s not getting younger, was very effective, and pretty much stayed healthy the entire season. I wouldn’t bet on last year’s numbers being duplicated.
Fleury – Agree there is an appreciable upside. In terms of actual NHL experience is a neophyte, only 87 games in a league that is known to take closer to 250 to become master of the trade. Worse, those games came in fits and starts, without any continuity and with a very short leash from his coaches. Even in the face of those inhibitors he showed steady improvement on the defensive side of the puck.
Wallmark – Only needs to not go backwards to serve next seasons Canes well. He has only played in 100 NHL games, 81 of those were last season, virtually his NHL rookie year. While a sophomore slump could be a problem, there is time in his development curve for significant improvement.
Williams – While Justin didn’t need the “C” to be a team leader, the team needed him to wear the “C” to know they should follow him. Are his best years behind him? Analytics say yes. But the statistical analysis involved predicts for all in the age group well, individually not so well. He will be as useful to the team as his heart drives his play. Looks like he is waiting for instructions about next season to come from his heart.
I am pretty much where tj is on all three points.
Fleury can be a solid NHLer. However, unless Faulk gets traded I don’t see a spot for Fleury as Bean’s ability to quarterback a power play will likely slot him behind Pesce and Slavin on the left.
I saw a decent amount of Wallmark two seasons ago in Charlotte. He reminded me of Nicklas Backstrom in the way he seemed to always be in the best spot on both offense and defense. Admittedly it was the AHL and he won’t be anywhere near Backstrom in the NHL. Still I think he becomes what Victor Rask quit being—a 45-55 point two-way center. I think Wallmark is a much better playmaker than Rask. It wouldn’t surprise me if he hits 60 points once in his career. For the first half of last season the Martinook/Wallmark/Svechnikov line led the league in expected +/-. That statistic and Wallmark’s career trajectory thus far are similar to Frans Nielsen and Tomas Plekanec: two smallish, high IQ, Europeans picked in the middle rounds.
The Canes played at a 98 point pace with co-captains and Cam Ward in goal in 17-18. I really am rooting for Scott Darling to turn his career around as he has been through so much. But it is hard to argue that Williams’ leadership was nearly as impactful as finally moving on from Darling. Williams was the C while Darling was playing and the Canes were near the bottom of the Metro. Once Darling was sent to Charlotte and Niederreiter came aboard the Canes became a top 5 team.
I hope Williams re-signs. The team can really use his talents—including his leadership, which I acknowledge even though I don’t ascribe near magical powers to it. The Canes are short on right-shots. Plus, with Williams I like the potential lines:
Niederreiter/Aho/Teravainen
Haula/Staal/Williams
Svechnikov/Wallmark/Necas (remember before last season when Svechnikov and Necas were roommates all the talk was how they can develop together)
2) I hope Bean gets a real chance on the first power play in the preseason. He will make rookie mistakes, but his skill set could finally get the Canes to have a consistently efficient man advantage.
I would also like to see Pesce get significant power play time. Several weeks ago I posted the numbers that show that almost every forward on the team was at his most productive with Pesce on the ice. (Go back and watch the OT goal in the first Islanders playoff game, Pesce makes the kind of play that takes advantage of the defense being “undermanned.”) I understand that none of us “see” Pesce as having a great shot, elite skating, nor high-end passing. But it is hard to argue with having results that were among the best in the entire league.
Fact is that we really need all 3 players to step up.
If Fleury is going to be an NHL defenseman he has to do it next season. The Canes signed an AHL defenseman as a backup I take it, so I don’t know what the thought process is, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade involving Fleury, one of the goalie prospects and maybe a role forward for an upgrade at forward.
Fleury might fit in Vegas, for instance, if the Canes can get the rights to Gusev in return.
Walmark just has to step up, the team has positioned itself to rely on him as a solid two-way center. As a 4C he’d actually be just fine, so I am not too worried.
I suspect JW will take one more year, but will he play with the Canes? It’s a pretty daming statement if he decides to sign elsewhere for his final year, it would have something to do with things we don’t know about.
I’m going lower on all three, Fleury/Wallmark/Williams.
-Fleury can play 3rd pairing, but that is where the D competition is heaviest. Bean, Sellgren, Lintuniemi will be vying for the same slot. I agree w/Breezy, he may be odd man out at some point.
-Wallmark is at best an NHL 4C (and can backup as 2C/3C in pinches). I just think offensively he’s a bit short on skill. He’s a smart player all teams need to play limited minutes.
-Williams, if he returns, likely sees a role on the 3rd line. Yes he had his shades of greatness on the top line, but he’s slow and should be sheltered with speedier line mates. Personally, I don’t see his return as a necessary.
I agree with those who say that Wallmark has a lot of unrealized potential. Let’s keep him. But he might also be an attractive bit of trade bait. Go Donny. Work your magic.
Justin Williams. What can be said of him? There are those on this site who say things like he didn’t need a C on his sweater to be a leader. To some extent, that is true. But when he didn’t wear the C on his sweater, the team’s coach was working hard to undermine Willy’s leadership. Such things are obvious to the players. These things are demoralizing. Our coach didn’t care.
It has been mentioned that the C on his sweater inspired the team. This is true in so many ways. It is gratifying to me that there are those on this site who recognize that.
But the C on Willy’s sweater means something else. And this is big. Both the officials as well as the opposition see him as the team captain. He has the right to talk to the officials. Those without the C or the A cannot without risking a trip to the penalty box. This is a big deal. On-ice politics is very important in dealing with the attitudes of officials. When Ferland was injured and Martinook was as well, Willy was there to stand up for his teammates against the bullies.
I believe that he is waiting to see if we are going to replace Ferland. I don’t think he wants to have to face down the likes of Tom Wilson again this year.
And he shouldn’t have to.
As for Gibbons? My reaction was the same as that expressed by another on this site. But then I remembered how I reacted to our acquisition of both McKeg as well as Martinook. Maybe I was a bit hasty to react. I will wait and see.
Now as to our Haydn Fleury. I don’t think he will win the job of #6 or #7 or even #8 defenseman out of camp. I doubt that Donny will get even a nibble from another GM.
Oh well. Maybe I am wrong. Time will tell.
Fleury is young, it is not very many NHL games yet. He is not where you would expect him to be with his draft pedigree. I think he has upside, so higher ceiling, but he needs to get get going or he will be past by. It’s this year or bust.
Wallmark improves every time he takes a step upward. I very much believe he has a higher ceiling. He was given checking line and 4th line positions. High hickey IQ, does what the team needs. That does not always give him the chance to shine. I believe he only gets better.
Williams, I would not say higher given his age, but I would say the same level of leadership. He will be missed if he retires. I though the comment about on ice politics was spot on. He is respected by all. His leadership does matter, it’s that attitude even when the chips are down. I hope he hangs in there for another year. You know if he does it is all in.
icecobra, I agree with your assessments. Since you have stated them so well I won’t just repeat them in my own post. One thing I noticed about Fleury watching the AHL playoffs is when he is motivated he really shows off his skating and defensive ability. But, there were times where his attention seemed to drift and he got caught being behind the play. If he can eliminate these lapses, IMO he surely could be a top notch 3rd pairing defenseman.
1. Fleury may or may not have offensive upside, but I trust him to grow along with his responsibilities as a full time NHLer and see him as a reasonable CdH replacement.
2. Wallmark was overslotted for the majority of the year and succeeded in not often looking like he was in over his head. It seems like he’s slotted to get 4th line minutes and PK time and will be able to concentrate on his game against weaker competition. I see a modest increase in point totals.
3. It doesn’t seem to a popular opinion, but Williams needs to be on this team next year. Aside from his point production, everyone pointed to his leadership and demeanor throughout the season as being a major factor in the team’s success.