In case you missed it, my thoughts a couple layers deep on the Hurricanes taking on Patrick Marleau in return for a first-round draft pick are HERE.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at the draft itself from a high level.
Carolina Hurricanes 2019 NHL Draft picks
After entering the draft with a couple extra picks in hand already and then trading down to collect a few more draft picks, the Hurricanes exited the draft with a haul of 12 new prospects which is five more than the usual seven rounds of picks that each team is given. The team added eight forwards, three defensemen and one goalie.
Expert grades
Unfortunately, I do not have the time right now to compile a list of grades by experts for the Carolina Hurricanes 2019 draft, but the grades are overwhelmingly positive. The team gets high marks both for the quantity of players added to the prospect pool but also the quality of those picks. Add in collecting another first-round draft pick for the 2020 NHL Draft, and the Hurricanes significantly improved its prospect pool this past weekend.
Carolina Hurricanes team-building strategy
In my article on the Patrick Marleau trade, I talked about the Hurricanes’ continued emphasis on building from within. Since the team started stockpiling picks and prospects a few years back while rebuilding, it has long been assumed that the Canes would utilize the prospect depth to add roster players. At some point, the Canes will inevitably trade futures for players, but anyone who believes that is the overarching strategy is not watching what the team is doing.
My similar comments from the other article were:
For a couple years now, the Hurricanes have been stockpiling prospects and draft picks that will allegedly be used to add players to boost the Hurricanes roster. It all makes sense at a conceptual level because teams have used this approach before. And at some point the Hurricanes will trade some futures to add a player.
But I think declaring this as the Hurricanes plan increasingly misses what the team is actually doing.
What the Hurricanes have actually done over the past few years is collect and keep prospects and draft picks. The fact that the Hurricanes who entered with three second-round draft picks actually used all of them (either drafting or trading for even more draft picks) is the quantity sign of the Hurricanes’ strategy. But I actually think the Marleau deal is even more telling. The Carolina Hurricanes who are allegedly cheap spent $2.8 million to basically buy an extra first-round draft pick for next year. No doubt, the Hurricanes will at some point use some of the available futures to trade for a player, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the team’s overarching strategy is to build from within. Every team pays this lip service, but the Hurricanes are at a different level right now accumulating extra draft picks and prospects.
Strategy for player selection
Emphasis on under-scouted leagues and geographies
The Carolina Hurricanes strategy for selecting players is also become more obvious. In recent years, the Hurricanes have overemphasized leagues and regions that are a bit less common and certainly less scouted than the primary Canadian junior leagues. In the 2019 NHL Draft, the Hurricanes continued the run of selecting players from junior leagues in Finland and also added two players from the secondary British Columbia Hockey League and a US high school player.
The team’s trend of finding players in less scouted leagues became even more obvious with the 2019 NHL Draft.
Willingness to consider skill set diversity
The Hurricanes eclectic mix of players showed a willingness to draft speed and skill even if some of it came in the form of undersized players. In addition, the Canes made a bold move spending an early second-round pick to add a goalie. The Hurricanes took somewhat undersized defensemen Anttoni Honka (5-10 and 179 pounds) and Domenick Fensore (5-7 and 151 pounds). The Hurricanes also ventured into the (allegedly) undersized category at forward too in drafting Jamieson Rees (5-10 and 172 pounds), Tuuka Tieksola (5-10 and 146 pounds) and Massimo Rizzo (5-10 and 175 pounds).
At a general level, I love the idea of identifying quality players who rate well for speed and skill but maybe fall a bit because of lack of size. Bigger is still better than smaller in the NHL, but speed and skating trumps skating in today’s NHL.
In addition, I think oftentimes people incorrectly consider short and small to be the same thing. Especially players in the 5-10-ish range can incorrectly be labeled as undersized when in fact that bring a lower center of gravity and lower body strength that is more than of a Mark Recchi than a player who is weak physically.
I will share first impressions from seeing these players in person this week during the summer prospect camp and will at some point follow up with additional analysis for each player.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What is your overall impression of the Carolina Hurricanes’ 2019 draft?
2) Which player(s) are you most excited to see?
Go Canes!
The draft was quite a ride. My honest first impression was WTF, when the canes traded down with pick #37. I was coveting Raphael Lavoie, the 6’4” winger from the Q who scored 20 goals in 23 playoff games this spring. He was projected to go in the first. There are questions about effort and consistency (reviews reminded me of Goat) but still.
Then I re-read this article, which I think I posted last year.
https://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/05/30/draft-pick-value-charts/
With hockey being a strong-link sport, and every pick outside of the lottery with essentially the same chance to produce a star, trading for quantity makes sense. And, every pick should be elite at something. It is easier to bring an elite player up to average on the rest than to develop eliteness in a well rounded player who is not elite. I could see the lessons of the strong link analysis in play, as we selected undersized players who are elite at something.
A final observation: only three of 12 players are on the traditional path of joining the team. Of the remaining 9, 4 are headed to college and 5 playing in foreign leagues. Practically speaking, we have the players rights for 3 years but don’t have to pay for their development. This approach is probably necessary to pursue the quantity strategy dictated by strong link analysis.
You bring up an interesting issue with the development of draft picks. The “traditional” route of the CHL is becoming less the norm. While it is the best route to develop 16-18 year olds, the rules requiring players to either make the NHL or stay in the CHL until their 21 year old season is often detrimental to the development of 19 & 20 year olds. Neither Fleury nor Bean had much to prove in the WHL after their draft seasons. They had to stay anyway. The NCAA, or other professional leagues are more challenging for older players, and you are seeing more and more players being taken from those routes.
This makes me think it could be 3 or 4 years until we see Suzuki in Raleigh. If he has compete issues playing in a league where he has dominant abilities and against mainly younger players is of little benefit.
Good clarification LTS, I said it poorly. Draft picks can play against adults / older players in college and overseas, whereas in the CHL they are “stuck” playing against younger players. It is not until the CHL player is under contract in the NHL system that they can develop playing against other adult professionals (unless they make the big show before 21 – unusual).
Draft decision making is not just about how good a player is now, but how quickly they can progress.
In some cases, we’ll be able to get the (college / foreign) players into our system faster with less adjustments needed as the result of playing against adults
With peak performance achieved at 24-27 years old, the timing is important.
That is a very interesting article and it seems that our brain-trust has bought into it. I have no issues with this strategy. My only concern about our pipeline of players, even with how dominant the team was in CLT, is whether any of them are really Top-6 or Top-4 players in the NHL. The jury is still out of that.
2) Suzuki is the most intriguing, with Puistola and the Russian goalie close behind.
Suzuki is said to have elite vision – he can “see the ice”. The phrase “see the ice” is funny to me, because it isn’t the ice that is important but rather the player movement on the ice. Of course elite vision is the ability for the brain to project where everyone is headed, and therefore which passing lanes and opportunities open up. It is possible that Suzuki’s brain processes the game at a speed and quality that “slows down the game” for him. If this ability projects to NHL speed then he could be special.
Puistola intrigues for a completely different reason. I know nothing about him, but on Twitter a significant group endorsed using the first round pick on him. Then we traded down twice and got him anyway, much later. I can’t wait to see what all of the fuss is about.
The long term outlook for the Canes looks really promising. Talent in Charlotte, a core of relatively young talent in Raleigh (Slavin, Pesce, Aho, Svech, Turbo), and a well stocked pipeline of players, and two first round picks waiting in the next draft. I really liked the pick of Jamieson Rees, who will excel in RBA system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vG_B9IT55u8
Now to see what the team can do about the short term. As much as some people are freaking out about getting top six scoring help, goaltending is all we should be talking about. If a couple of goalie options fall through and both Petr and Curtis take offers from other teams, the Hurricanes could be taking a huge gamble on the most important position.
darth, maybe you just hit on it when you say we “could be taking a huge gamble on the most important position.” Maybe it’s always a gamble no matter who you put in net, for everyone but the very top-tier. If that’s true, then put the best team you can in front of him and take your chances. Maybe that’s why GMDW isn’t overly concerned and talks about “having options.”
I realize that’s a bit flippant, and we should (and will) look for more certainty and less risk, but even Bobs had a tough year (until the playoffs) and he’s going to command a ridiculous contract as a UFA. Every year a seemingly elite goaltender stumbles – usually more than one – and it’s the rare player that maintains a very high level of play each year. It really is a crapshoot.
I’d not familiar with the analytics for the position, but I’m sure Tulsky has some model that prices a 1a or 1b or even a #2 and I’m betting it’s less than we think it is. I’m starting to think that Ned is going to be on the roster and play a lot of games in Raleigh next year.
(so for the off-topic thread – I know nothing – zero – about any of our picks.)
Mrazek was a huge gamble that ended up working out pretty well, although I think people forget he started slow. Getting Curtis on waivers was incredible luck.
There are a couple interesting options out there, and I think Waddell has been pretty smart in avoiding big mistakes so far.
Any draft where you get 12 players is a great draft. You can like certain players, but trying to rate a draft is kind of silly. You really wont know for 4 or 5 years. None the less, here is what I thought.
I like the Suzuki pick. He has the abilities to be an excellent player in the NHL. He also has a reputation for having compete issues. That could be just maturity stuff, but it’s why he was available at 28. It’s a risk/reward pick which is great in my mind.
Getting the #2 goalie prospect in the draft is also always a good thing. The Russians have been developing some pretty damn good goalies over the past decade, so I’m excited to see how this kid works out.
After those two it was all about numbers for me. The more picks the better. Pretty much rolling the dice after the first 50 picks.
Finally, I’m not sure I agree with Matt that the Canes will eventually trade prospects for a player. Dundon is trying to make a profit here in Raleigh. He will have to operate as a small market team, which means keeping salaries down. Having a boatload of young talent to reload into the system is part of that plan, and a smart part of that plan. I don’t see Dundon trading to get a player making over $5M a year unless he is sending away close to the same amount of money. I see good, but not great, players like Faulk and Skinner being allowed to move on as opposed to paying them big money. Hopefully Dundon will open the wallet for the best players like Aho, and for quality goaltending which is essential for a good NHL team.
Having said that about getting more expensive players, I did see a rumor this weekend that Duchene is visiting Raleigh this week. I was surprised to read that – it certainly doesn’t square with the “building from within” theme.
Odd. Doesn’t sound like a Canes move at all. Of all the UFAs available Duchene has the most baggage. Both Dundon and Brind’Amour have been vocal about creating the right culture to sustain a winning organization. Why add a potential rotten egg?
I really did not follow the draft that closely and all I know about individual picks is what I have read – which isn’t much. I like the high marks we have received, and it just goes to show that Don Waddell is, indeed, one of the sharpest hockey minds.
Duchene visiting us could be nothing more than seeing what he is demanding vs what the Seabass wants.
Or maybe to let the Seabass’ agent know that he isn’t the only fish in the sea.
I shudder to think of Duchene spreading his poison in our locker room.
Duchene isn’t a one or another with Aho. Aho isn’t going anywhere. He and his agent know that. And I think the poison has a lot more to do with Ottawa than it does Matt Duchene.
Then why did Colorado suddenly get better when Duchene left?
Because MacKinnon and Rantanen turned superhuman. I’m just saying, those narratives aren’t always accurate. Look at Dougie Hamilton. Some places can just be tough to play.
Sometimes they are. A guy as talented as Duchene getting traded that many times PLUS the Uber video paints a very unflattering picture. They had better do some serious vetting before you bet big dollars in a small market on a guy like that.
So I usually read up a lot tighter on the draft than I did this year, even with the extra picks. But I’m ecstatic about this past weekend. Just proves the guys at our draft table know what they’re doing and understand how pick value works in the NHL. I’m also incredibly encouraged because, at least according to what I’ve heard and people I’ve spoken with, the Canes were in conversations with multiple teams consistently, and yet made no moves other than the Marleau deal and trading back. They’re not going to get taken for a ride, they’re going to wait for the right deal and the right value. If that right deal doesn’t come? Fine. We’ve got a ton of prospects and picks to make. Shrewd asset management, all weekend long.
Suzuki is a great pick at 28. More size and a better skater than Nick, and probably one of the most purely skilled players in this draft. As long as the compete level questions get answered (you know he’ll never see the ice under Roddy if this is a question) looks like another real solid young center to throw in with Aho, Necas, Drury, Roy, Geekie, and so on.
Kochetkov is a prototype modern goalie. 6’3, 205 and elite athleticism to go with it. The only question I’ve consistently seen asked is overaggressiveness. He tracks and attacks the puck extremely well (helping make some of the most ridiculous saves I’ve seen). And already at age 20, he might not be as far off. He could realistically be in Raleigh in 3 years if all goes well until then (and I know that doesn’t seem that fast but most goalies take 5-6 to make the show; Ned, for example was a 2014 draft pick and is just now starting to maybe be ready).
Jamieson Rees is the quintessential RBA player. He’s got to add some size to be able to hold up at the NHL level, already dealt with injury issues last year playing against 16-20 years olds, but he obviously has time. Similar to Grewe who I was hoping we’d pick, he’s just going to be a pain to play against. Very physical, good forechecker, good skater, fits like a glove with what this team wants to do.
Puistola is a high-level goal scorer. Legit top-six potential. He’s not a pure sniper but moreso just a guy that knows how to get in position to score. He also possesses arguably the best hands in the draft. Ridiculous value at 73 after trading down. Had we taken him with a second I would have been stoked. That’s just highway robbery.
Anttoni Honka is a bit of a love or hate him prospect, but was once again excellent value where he was drafted. His defensive game needs a lot of work, but that’s pretty typical of a PP QB defenseman like he is. He would have been picked a lot higher if he was 6’1.
Fensore is pretty much the same thing. But 5’7, 160 is a little scary. He’s going to have to prove he isn’t just going to be pushed over in his own end. But the offensive potential and skating ability is worth the risk around here (and with so many picks). Hopefully his numbers aren’t skewed too much playing on the USNTDP against weak competition and with a ton of talent. Will be fun to watch him develop at BU the next few years.
Webber is a massive defenseman with elite skating ability, but not much offense to his game. But at 6’6 if he’s one of those guys who’s tough to get around and play against in his own end he’ll theoretically pair up well with one of these offensive defensemen down the road.
Tieksola is another really nice wild card at the end of the fourth round. He put up massive numbers
I didn’t finish this and accidentally hit send. Ugh. To continue (almost done I promise)…
In the Jr. A Liiga, and has real offensive potential as well. He’s extremely slight at this point in time as well so he’ll have to bulk up some, but he’s a good, agile skater with great playmaking ability, though he is said to disappear for long stretches so he’ll have to add some consistency.
Slepets was thought to be a possible mid round pick, if not second or third, two years ago. But he’s a fiesty player and elite skater with real offensive talent as well. Another lottery ticket that could pay off in a massive way.
Kevin Wall scored 31 goals (64 points) in 49 games in the BCHL. He’s got a really nice shot/release but the rest of his game, including skating ability, is questionable. But getting a guy with his goal scoring ability and seeing how the rest of the game develops isn’t a bad move in he sixth.
Blake Murray was a highly touted kid entering the O, and after a huge season last year was thought to be a probable first rounder this year. He didn’t quite live up to expectations in his draft year. Reminds me a bit of Nicolas Roy in this way, and getting a 6’3 center who scored 30 goals in the sixth round is another great move. If he takes the step forward this year he was hoped to take this past year, this could also be a steal.
Finally, Massimo Rizzo was another guy expected to go higher than he did. He’s a quick, agile skater passer with good hands, and obviously brings some intangibles with him being the Vees’ captain. He’s headed to UND so he’ll have a few extra years to develop, like many of these guys.
The canes took a bunch of kids with huge potential in the later rounds. I love the approach. Odds are a few of these guys hit and the canes will pay off in a big way.
And sorry, I didn’t really mean to damn near make another article in the comments, was just kind of trying to get a quick recap on these guys all in one place that we could talk about them. With 12 guys I guess that kind of turns out to be a lot. But any one else have anything to add please do.
Three teams in 2 years and he is now a UFA?
Still speaking of Duchene.
Anton Forsberg and Gustav Forsling
for
Calvin de Haan and Aleksi Saarela
At first glance I am not a fan of this trade at all.
Are Forsberg (Cam Ward’s #2) and Ned the answer in goal? Seriously?
Forsling has some upside as a forward, but less so than Saarella in my opinion.
And we traded away a key defenseman, albeit one prone to injuries.
I don’t get this move, not unless there’s something to follow.
Salary cap dump to *I hope*
-sign high-value core players like Faulk & Aho
-go after a top 6 forward & starting goalie on the FA market
We had sufficient cap space to do all this before this lopsided trade, so it becomes apparent that the Canes still operate as a budget team and don’t plan on spending close to the ceiling.
Forsling is a defenseman. He is 23. He is a defensive defensemen. I am not sure what Donny has in mind. Forsling is considerably less expensive than deHaan.
Robin Lehner will never play hockey in a Canes uniform. We might as well accept that we are not a preferred location for top tier UFAs.
I too am dubious over this trade. But then it took me a while to understand Donny’s method to his madness in other moves he has made.
Robin Lehner will
I meant Forsling as a d man obviously.
I am guessing the Canes are close to a deal with Faulk (if not, next year’s D is becoming suspect).
I guess Forsling and TVR are the third pairing, Forsberg and Ned in net, unless they plan to put Darling back there.
I think Saarella just didn’t fit into RBA’s style of play, he got one game with the Canes and didn’t get a boatload of minutes.
I’m afraid the Canes will regret having traded this kid away, but glad he’ll get a shot with the Blackhawks.
Forsberg & Ned in net would be – in polite terms – a risky bet. I think there will be an additional goalie signing for the 1 spot.
CDH was probably the best third pairing D-man in the league, and I loved what he brought to the team. That said, Canes management have an internal budget to satisfy, and saw Calvin as expendable since we were so deep in young (cheap) defensemen we could stick on a 3rd pairing.
I just hope we don’t cut any more talent and use this cap space beneficially via trades or free agency
The deHaan trade says one thing to me. Dundon doesn’t want to pay $4.5M for the third pairing defenseman. That’s what deHaan is and on a budget team that’s too expensive.
On the other hand it’s a bad look. deHaan gave the Canes a good season after signing as a UFA and they quickly unloaded him. Don’t think current UFAs and their agents didn’t notice.