Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at the competition that the Canes have for a spot in the 2020 NHL playoffs.
The standings
With 24 games to go, my standings math that adjusts for games played has the Canes tied for the eighth and final playoff spot and winning the tiebreaker. Bigger picture, the race right now has six teams within four points of each other and battling for four playoff spots. In play are the #3 slot for both divisions and both wild card slots. There are a couple other teams (Canadiens, Sabres, Rangers) that are not completely out of the race yet, but are long shots to catch and pass so many teams.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Of the teams in the hunt, the Maple Leafs are team most worth watching for Hurricanes fans. The Hurricanes own the team’s first-round draft pick in the upcoming draft, so a playoff miss would likely maximize where that pick lands. The Leafs have been on brink of collapse a couple times. A coaching change served as shock paddles earlier in the year, and more recently the team has been able to somehow stabilize things despite injuries on the blue line and in net. The Leafs have been treading water a bit lately, are still banged up on defense and are starting difficult stretch of schedule. Can they sink one more time and not rebound?
Florida Panthers
The Panthers have had an up and down 2019-20 season. After a slow start, they pushed up the standings but more recently have stumbled again. After a six-game winning streak, the Panthers have slumped again with a 3-6-1 record in their past 10 games. I like the Panthers on paper, and Bobrovsky has the potential to carry them if he gets hot late. But things just have not clicked at least for an extended basis thus far in 2019-20 which seems to put the Panthers at risk.
New York Islanders
The Islanders started the season red hot and were near the top of the NHL standings early in the season. But they have mostly rested on those laurels and been ‘meh’ since then. In the process, the Isles have played their way down from the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference and into the fray around the playoff cut line. The Isles are still a couple points ahead of this group but generally giving up ground. I dubbed Barry Trotz the best free agent pickup for the summer of 2018, and he is still factoring in the Isles’ success. The Isles play a sound structured game that minimizes scoring chances against and gives the goalies a chance. The positive is that the Isles are in most games which can help in collecting ‘tie’ points, but the team maybe lacks the sheer fire power to truly excel late.
Columbus Blue Jackets
As of little more than a week ago, the Blue Jackets were in the process up playing their way up into the next tier. But the Blue Jackets have faced two setbacks since then. First, they seemed to naturally just come back to Earth after an incredible hot streak. Second, the injury bug bit them hard with the loss of leaders and top players Seth Jones and Cam Atkinson. As a result, Columbus has cooled off and come back to the pack a bit. John Tortorella deserves coach of the year consideration for taking a team that was left for dead with the departure of Bobrovsky and Panarin and showing that hockey is not just about star power. The hope is that the loss of two players will be too much to overcome, but thus far Tortorella has been able to get the most out of this team.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers have lost two out of three but passed the Canes before that with a 7-3-1 stretch. The Flyers are arguably the team least likely to be in this position when the season started but are making it work with an interesting combination of veteran holdovers and next-generation players. The Flyers’ goaltending has been up and down and seems to have the potential to be an Achilles’ heel down the stretch.
My 2 cents
Of this group, I really liked the Panthers and Blue Jackets as of a week ago. The the key injuries for the Blue Jackets have the potential to become a downfall on a team light on high-end star power. And the Panthers continue to be a team that maybe is better on paper than it is on the ice.
The Leafs start a tough stretch with a game against the Canes in the middle of it. I keep hoping they falter because of the draft pick upgrade bonus, but so far they have been able to hold things together.
I have been a skeptic of the Flyers all season, but at some point one has to give them credit for where they are. My hope is that their goalies sink them if something else does not.
I am torn on the Islanders. On the one hand, I appreciate Trotz’s ability to mold a winner that is driven by the system more so than high-end talent. On the other hand, the players on the ice decide the outcome, and I do not think the Islanders are as talented as the Hurricanes.
For fun, my prediction is that the Panthers finish third in the Atlantic Division, that the Islanders hold onto third in the Metropolitan Division and that the Hurricanes and Blue Jackets seize the two wild card slots.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Of the six teams, which do you fear the most?
2) Which of the six is most likely to falter down the stretch?
3) Who are your picks for the four open playoff spots in the Eastern Conference?
Go Canes!
To be more objective I’ve always used the following website to handicap our playoffs chances. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html. They see Columbus and Florida on the outside looking in with the Canes and Leafs in the wildcard slots.
I’ve watched CBJ and PHI play a few times over the past few weeks and have generally been quite impressed with their level of play. They have both been very solid – the type of solid the Canes were last season – and very engaged with few major mistakes.
TOR isn’t hard to figure out: they’re never out of any game because of how good their offense is but their defense is quite suspect and anyone in net other then Craig Anderson is also a real wildcard. Expect him to be ridden like a horse down the stretch.
I can’t figure the NYI out other than to conclude that their offense is better than people give them credit for. Maybe after 1½ years of Trotz the league is starting to figure out how to beat them.
FLA is a mystery.
After all the injuries, overcoming the loss of Seth Jones is going to be too much for CBJ and I think TOR hangs on for 3rd in the Atlantic. I’m not going to predict an order in the Metro but the likely opponents of BOS/TBY, WAS, and PIT for the remaining three teams are all daunting.
Oh how I want us to look as organized as CBJ PHI and NYI. With our talent, that should be enough for us.
A think a trade is coming that will include a roster player to shake things up a bit.
Toronto goalie is Frederick Anderson. Craig is in Ottawa. Recently Anderson has not been so hot in TO, but his backup, Campbell, has played well.
Brain fart by me. Thx for correcting
We are at the point in a season where in a ministreak (4-5 games) either way makes a big difference. You can say that the Canes are ready for another such win streak. You can say that CBJ is ready to mean-regress with a losing streak. Can the Leafs pull it together – they look like they are ready to make a run and then…no. The Rangers had a mini streak and pulled within 4 of the Canes last week.
To me these things are near random – there is no real basis to assess probabilities, and the past is not prologue.
Last season the Canes, after the great post-holiday run, actually faltered a bit going into the final week of the regular season – we hung on for it though. I think we find a way to falter…falter (as we are doing)..win..and make it to one of the WC spots.
What worries me with Canes is the difficulty of their schedule. Really would be ideal if one of Islanders, Blue Jackets, or Flyers just crumbled and dropped down the standings.
Columbus is the last home game… I have a feeling that will decide the season.
That would be very interesting. Torts will have his team breathing fire in that situation. Could the Canes answer?
On the subject of a deadline trade. A pure rental seems unlikely given the seeming commitment to the last phases of the on-going rebuild. A “hockey trade’ seems more likely, but those seldom occur at this point of the season. TVR, Haula and Edmundson could easily be our “self-rentals” for the final season push.
I agree with TJ in that this is impossible to handicap. The teams that hit a hot streak will be the ones to make it. Who will it be? Hard to tell as they are all flawed.
The Bluejackets had it clicking, but losing Jones and Atkinson is brutal. If anyone can rally these guys it’s Torts. They play the right way and have had excellent goaltending with Elvis in building.
The Islanders play the right way, but when your best player is feuding with the head coach it’s an issue. Not sure how that plays out, but I would suppose Barzal will get on board with playoffs on the line.
Toronto…so much talent, so much crap. They could get hot, who knows. I’m coming to the thought that John Tavares is a problem. Here’s a guy who just wants to score, doesn’t play D, and honestly is a bit slower than he used to be. This guy wears the C.
Florida, Toronto South. No D, all offense. Won’t work unless they get crazy hot.
The Flyers are probably the most balanced team of this group. The question is can their goaltending hold up? If Carter Hart grows up and plays to his potential they will make the playoffs.
This leaves the Canes. I’ve just not seen the consistent effort from this group. Yes, they are questionable in goal and have to play Gardiner way too much, but they have the ability to play a tight game and win, yet they don’t. Maybe they’ll get hot, but I don’t see it.
My rank of playoff chances.
NYI: 8/5
PHI: 1-1
CBJ: 1-1
CAR: 2-1
TOR: 4-1
FLA: 6-1
One of Toronto or Florida has to be in the top 3 of the Atlantic and in the playoffs as a result, even if they have less points than either of the 2 Metro teams in the wildcard.
Good point. Was thinking wild card. TO will probably claim that third spot, but they are likely another first round exit.
Gauthier to NYR for ‘99 RH defenseman Joey Keane.