Today’s Daily Cup of Joe has a similar theme as my Daily Cup of Joe from Tuesday that looked at the 2020-21 Canes roster from a high level. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe makes a short list of players who offer the most upside (and potential risk as the flip side) looking forward into the 2020-21 season.
In goal
Alex Nedeljkovic (if he sticks at the NHL level as I expect for the 2020-21 season)
If the Hurricanes make room for Alex Nedeljkovic at the NHL level for the 2020-21 season as I expect, he represents both significant upside and risk at the same time. Recent times in the NHL have seen many rookie or young goalies be given an opportunity, seize it and boost an entire team. Jordan Binnington is top of the list, but in addition Elvis Merzlikins has capitalized on Sergei Bobrovsky’s departure in Columbus, Carter Hart has burst onto the scene in Philadelphia, Tristan Jarry has risen up in Pittsburgh, Pavel Francouz has challenged in Colorado, Ilya Samsonov has done the same in Washington and Igor Shesterikin has accelerated the transition to the next generation. At least 25 percent of the NHL had goalies who were not even in the mix two years ago lead the way. So with Nedeljkovic, the upside is the potential that he is part of a revolution in the crease which increasingly seems to be a young man’s position. The downside is that the Canes clear space for him only to learn that he is not ready. In today’s NHL, a #2 goalie is generally expected to shoulder about one-third of the starts. And in both of the past two seasons, Petr Mrazek has required help manning the crease especially early in seasons. So if Nedeljkovic is unable to rise to the occasion, he could represent a significant downgrade compared to significant roles played by Curtis McElhinney and James Reimer over the past two seasons.
On defense
If one figures that Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce will return from injury and play at their normal levels, the Canes are three deep in terms of bona fide top 4 defensemen. But to make the math work, they need one more. The team definitely has potential options in this regard, but also a bit of uncertainty.
Brady Skjei
Based on his acquisition cost which was a first-round draft pick, one would figure that the intent was for Brady Skjei to play in a top 4 slot or at least be capable of it while slotting as #5 defenseman on a deep blue line. In a limited audition before the suspension of the 2019-20 NHL season, Skjei has been a mixed bag in my book. He very clearly has the physical skill set as a big, agile, mobile defenseman. But so far the negative-leaning version of the scouting report on him has proven true too. He seems prone to an occasional ‘oops’ which is not a great recipe for a top 4 defenseman. I would expect that when Brett Pesce is back in the lineup that Skjei will get a first chance to pair with him. Could Pesce be the perfect complementary partner for Skjei as a stalwart stay-home defender who can erase occasional errors and allow Skjei to thrive as a bit of a roamer.
Jake Gardiner
After a tough and extended acclimation period in a Hurricanes uniform, Gardiner has been better of late and has at at least found the offensive part of his game. But telling also is the fact that the Hurricanes are down two top 4 defensemen, and Gardiner is still slotted in the third pairing. On a deep blue line, I think it is possible that Gardiner adds value as a competent #5 defenseman who boosts scoring. But it is also possible that Gardiner finds a higher gear and adds more offensive punch to the top 4 on defense.
Haydn Fleury
Thus far, the player who has most capitalized and benefited from the Canes injury woes on the blue line has been Haydn Fleury. His minutes are up significantly. He is in a top 4 role. And he is playing the best hockey of his career at the NHL level. Just when many were giving up hope for Fleury to ever be more than a depth defenseman, might be be taking the next step? The evidence is favorable, but the sample size is small. He is the third of three options who could provide upside for the entire team if he wins a top 4 slot and excels in that role.
At forward
In different ways, I have clamored for another playmaking/scoring leaning center. With Jordan Staal being limited offensively, the Hurricanes could benefit from having two scoring lines around him. The top line anchored by Sebastian Aho makes one, but finding a second consistent scoring line has proven elusive. Dzingel/Haula/Necas looked good early but ultimately fizzled. Lucas Wallmark developed into flexible top 9 center but in my opinion was never the player to drive a second scoring line. That puts the Hurricanes still looking for this elusive skill set that would be pricey to add via free agency.
Vincent Trocheck
The Hurricanes gave up two NHL centers in Erik Haula and Lucas Wallmark and also two mid-tier futures to obtain Vincent Trocheck via trade from the Florida panthers. Based on that trade cost and also his salary, the intent is obviously for Trocheck to be a key player in a top 9 role. He brings a skill set that matches Brind’Amour’s system as a hard-charging forward with some playmaking ability. His start with the Hurricanes has been a bit slow, but it is too early to pass judgment on Trocheck. He figures to get every chance to play in a middle six role with wings who should be capable of scoring. As such, he represents the next try for the Hurricanes to find a centerpiece for a second scoring line.
Martin Necas
Martin Necas was having a solid rookie season when it was abruptly halted. His 36 points in 64 games which represents about a 40-point pace is not eye-popping, but he reminds me a bit of Andrei Svechnikovo’s rookie season in 2018-19. Svechnikov went from a similarly modest 37 points in his rookie campaign to a big step up and 70ish-point pace in his second season. Like Svechnikov, Necas has shown flashes of the skill necessary to post big numbers at the NHL level. And as he has grown comfortable at the NHL level, his elite skating has started to show. Necas is playing right wing in 2019-20 but is a natural center with playmaking ability and mobility. Is it possible that makes it back to center and becomes the the two in a one-two punch for offense at the center position?
Morgan Geekie
Morgan Geekie is the interesting wild card. A couple weeks ago, he was an AHLer with promise but nowhere close to even being in the conversation. What a difference a couple of huge games to kick off his NHL career makes. A trajectory that smooths for his fast start suggests that Geekie more likely settles into a depth role with power play ice time somewhat similar to how Wallmark did. But sometimes players just rise to the occasion, play at a high level and excel from there. So until Geekie shows that he cannot, I would not count him out of anything right now.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on the three roles (backup goalie, #4 defenseman, scoring catalyst center) I identified as potential upsides and risks for the 2020-21 season?
2) Which, if any, of the players that I identified do you think will rise up to fill these important roles?
Go Canes!
1. Of the rookie/young goalies you mentioned just as many are starters as back-ups. You didn’t mention Driedger who was in the process of supplanting the $10M man (a reminder for those who are pining for Lehner). That is where Ned will end up. If the organization tries to slow his progress, it is a mistake.
I think Trocheck is the biggest risk. The Canes have three times to add scoring forwards (Ferland, Niederreiter, and Haula). Initially all three looks like great pick-ups only to regress to their mean. My guess is Trocheck won’t be as unproductive as he was after the acquisition (a 23 point pace), but my guess is he is the 50-55 point player he was for 3 of 4 years in Florida, not the 75 point player he was in the outlier year. The reason I think he is a risk is that Trocheck’s use will likely mean less prime time for Geekie and perhaps no opportunity for Lorentz who was actually more productive (14 points to 13) than Geekie in Charlotte in February—I included the 3/1 game because Geekie had 3 goals.
2. I think Fleury shows he is top 4. His confidence was visibly improved the last 5-8 games. He has the tools—in fact I could see him putting up a similar number of points as Skjei, while being more consistent defensively.
I’m very curious to see Pesce-Skjei. If that works well, plus Fleury as a now more confident #5, Canes have lots of depth. But I could also see Fleury-Pesce working just as well, and Skjei would be a strong #5. I’d be shocked if Gardiner is on this team next season.
There’s just so much to be said for giving high performing young guys a shot at the NHL beyond training camp. We saw that last season with McKegg and Saku and this season with Geekie.
I think Forsberg played better then Ned. He is a UFA. I was not impressed with Ned. I am not sure what we will do. Our goal tending is so so. I can see them bringing Ned in. I can’t say I feel comfortable with that. Reimer was probably our better goalie of all 3.
Skjei and Troch both underwhelmed. We traded away too much. We gutted our farm team. I know they wanted to patch the D. Skjei makes mistakes all the time. Did not look like an upgrade to me. I do not see him as top 4 with what I have seen so far. Term but play was not impressive. Troch was mostly MIA. I know, right center, but I hope it picks up.
Geekie came in and did a great job and can still grow. He is a keeper. Remind me of Foegele from an effort standpoint. The brain trust mostly did well but I did not like the trade deadline moves. RBA did not seem to like Gauthier. Kuokkanen and Luostarinen did not get real chances. The thing I do not like is we do not seem to give our prospects much of a chance. They know much more then me but as a fan I did not like the deadline moves. I understand trading Haula (I liked him at lot), but Wally, you could play anywhere and he was solid. You want guys like that. I know, give it time, but Troch does not seem to be worth what we gave up. Hopefully I will be wrong.
Last year I liked the entire team. This year, several under-performers. Dzingel, Garderner, Nino. Fleury has done well. He is a keeper and still progressing. I can see him in top 4. I do not see needing much D with Bean coming. It is not easy to move under-performing contracts.
The eam has to offload one or both of Skjei and Gardner.
I don’t know what they were smokin come deaadline day, but I’ve expressed those opinions a million times so people are probably tired of it. But, seriously, I was shocked the first time I saw the list (I was on vacation in the Caribbean and wasn’t paying attention).
I had advocated for mostly standing pat, maybe add depth RHD and was thinking of a guy like Collin Miller from Buf (whether he was available I don’t know but he is a pending UFA and Buf is in full rebuild mode).
In goal, I don’t know what to do. Ned doesn’t seem to have it, a much as I wish he did.
Forsberg would be that third goalie guy, a link between Clt and the big club, but so is Keigh Kincade (now in Clt, but I think he is on a loan).
Maybe one of the younger kids steps in and impresses in training camp, the Canes have 2 or 3 decent prospects, though I haven’t been tracking them.
On D, Fleury’s progress was the most positive thing this year. But the Canes probably have to give up the rest of the Checkers team to offload Gardner or Skjei to a club like the Sens, who are apparently looking to take on contracts in return for picks or prospects.
At forward I’m hoping that Trocheck can work himself out of his Florida funk and come in hungry and strong.
I’m hoping that Bock, that prospect we picked up in the Faulk deal could be good enough to be serviceable at forward with upside.
I hope JW would be willing to retake the C and sign up for another full season. Maybe the Canes can switch things up and sit JW in the press box while bringing up promising prospects for a stretch of 2 or 3 games to give him a chance to stay fresh and also to assist RBA with coaching and strategy duties.
The biggest change I want to see is trust in the farm system. RBA has to learn to give young players more of a chance and stop putting too much trust in under performing veterans. I think his handling of Fleury was poor in that regard and I don’t understnad why Gauthier, who really showed flashes of promise was not given a longer look or why Geekie or Lawrence or Kuanonen weren’t brought up for quick auditons in the second games of back to backs earlier.
Of course we hvae a bit of a history of doing the opposite, dubbing Hannifan the future of the D before he had a chance, (he is getting bad reviews for his latest season, but he doesn’t cost any more than Gadner and Brady and is doing better than tohse two).
Lindholm would’ve done much better with a year of seasoning/marinading down in Clt I think, too much expctation killed his early years, but now he is playing well.
But again, it’s hard not to overract when you make a mistake and swing that pendulum all the way to the oher side, but that can be equally bad, as we’ve seen this season.
Sadly it feels like the team made not one but two Thomas Kaberle deals this year and that is inexcusable.
Remember that Skjei was playing up the lineup, which was also his problem in NY. When Pesce and Hamilton are back, he’s going to get fewer minutes on this team and get better matchups, especially at home. He definitely makes some mistakes, but he’s a big body that can skate.
I think a team that needs D help, especially a PP specialist, might trade for Gardiner. Canes can make case that Gardiner just wasn’t a fit for their system and he has played better of late. 3 yrs @ $4mil might be small enough that it’s low risk for some teams. Canes won’t get much in return, maybe a 3rd-4th rd pick or a middle prospect. I could see Gardiner being part of a larger trade too or another team moving an underperforming forward to Canes in exchange.
Maybe Tor will take him back, Canes could retain 1 mill of salary.
Sure, Brady would do better as a third pairing D but that is some serious overpayment for a third pairing D.