If you have not stopped by in a couple days, you can catch up on this short “first impressions” series below:
Part 1 featured veterans Jordan Martinook, Micheal Ferland and Dougie Hamilton.
Part 2 featured remaining veteran newcomers Calvin de Haan, Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney.
Part 3 featured rookies Andrei Svechnikov, Lucas Wallmark and Valentin Zykov.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe finishes up the series by looking at the last two rookies.
Warren Foegele
Even considering #2 overall pick Andrei Svechnikov and some high-end veterans added, the most impressive new addition early into the 2018-19 season has been Warren Foegele. He stood out from the very beginning with his tenacity, aggressive play and ability to convert both of those into making a ton of difference-making plays.
I have been convinced that Foegele projected to become a good NHL checking line forward. But even in that optimistic outlook I significantly underestimated Foegele at least as measured by his play thus far. First, he is much more than a serviceable checking line forward. Through four games, Foegele is the single most disruptive forward in the lineup. His ability to create turnovers on the forecheck and also attack and win the puck in the offensive zone and neutral zone has been a catalyst for strong play by Staal’s line. Second, I am starting to question what his scoring ceiling might be. I do not think he possesses high-end scoring ability, but two things are making me question that. First, he has five goals and two assists in only six games. At some point, actual results have trump projections. Second, he has score at lower levels which suggests he is still capable. Foegele’s game and success are simple. He plays incredibly hard and drives his success through aggressiveness and tenacity.
Watch point: The scoring. I am increasingly cautiously optimistic that Foegele’s offensive ability is greater than I originally anticipated.
Martin Necas
Looking only at the few games in 2018-19, Martin Necas has been the most disappointing of the promising rookie group. To be clear, I do not think anything has changed with his long-term potential. Necas still possesses incredible skating ability and has at least the raw talent of a top 6 playmaking center. But through four games, he has struggled. Not surprisingly, his game without the puck is still raw. Offensively, he is still learning how to provide a safe passing outlet for defensemen. And defensively, he still has a propensity to get focused on the puck or just let up a little and then lose track of his defensive assignment. More significant than those struggles which could have been anticipated is the fact that he is not yet producing offensively. Right now, the game just looks too fast for him. Necas too regularly skates himself into dead ends in the neutral zone and has to just push the puck to no one specifically.
The burning questions right now are whether Necas’ long-term development will be better served by NHL or AHL ice time.
Watch point: How the organization handles Necas. I am on record as preferring not to put high-end prospects. Especially after watching a similar situation play out with Elias Lindholm, I would be very careful pushing Necas too much.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on Warren Foegele’s strong start?
2) How would you handle Martin Necas? Does he belong in the AHL right now? Is he destined to turn the corner and look more comfortable soon?
Go Canes!
Foegele has been excellent and it’s not too soon to reval his scoring ceiling. The main question I have is whether his style of play is sustainable over 82 games at this level.
As for Necas, we knew after the preseason that he was probably in the wrong league, but let’s see how he sorts things out over the next series of games. It’s still very early. I do not think the organization is going to make the Lindholm/Hanifin mistake here. Given our start and depth, we have the luxury of giving him time in CLT if it comes to that.
Necas has won only 36% of his 25 face offs. He has only 1 assist and is a -1 on a team that is scoring well. Optically he seems to be following the play; watching before reacting. While this is likely just my imagination, he looks like a “Francis/Peters” type player, not a “committee” type player. The thought of him being packaged in a trade with a defenseman for a top 6 NHL ready center/wing with speed and snarl has crossed my mind.
Everyone has to be more than happy with Foegele. I do want to say that his game is more than just effort. He is a big kid that can skate! I’m not talking straight line speed like Aho and Necas, but mobility or edges. Tripp has been talking about it recently, but I saw it last year. It’s why he was slotted as a defensive forward in the first place. He can stop, start, pivot and skate backwards. A lot of forwards aren’t so good at that. His feet are elite. That translates in a lot of leagues.
Necas looks lost. Defensively you knew it would be a challenge for him. Offensively, he looks like a guy that has been able to skate circles around everyone and now that he can’t he doesn’t know what to do 5 on 5. I will admit I am concerned about his hockey IQ, especially if you compare it to Svechnikov’s. He belongs in Charlotte. Yes, his long-term ceiling is still very high, but I would suggest that there is a chance his head will never catch up with his physical talents. Would I look to trade him? Likely not…unless a certain centerman who is holding out in Toronto became available….
My trade thoughts for Necas are not based on the thought he needs to be dumped. On the contrary, he is talented, and will have great trade value. To receive value, you have to give up value. Combined with one of our expendable defensemen the “committee” could find a deal for a NHL ready top six hot shot that is closer to ripe and without the uncertainty regarding Necas. Re: the Nylander thought. It has been rumored that the Canes have inquired about the player. It is also rumored in the same circles that his father is “driving the bus” in contract negotiations with Toronto. That was one of the problems that caused the need to let Skinner go. One must wonder if the “committee” wants to deal with that type of situation again.
I think the father thing was secondary in the Skinner situation. It’s was pretty obvious that he was not buying in and had no interest in buying in. He needed to go.
I have no idea what Nylander’s end game is. I’m sure he has little interest in coming to Carolina right now. If the Canes continue to win, word gets out that players like playing here, and the holdout continues…you never know. Nylander would pretty much be the man here as a center. In Toronto he’s kind of down the list with Tavares and Matthews. Then again he may be handling this like Panarin is in Columbus. He may have a list of teams he will agree to sign with. Who knows. The Toronto media machine will start to tear him up pretty soon. Most of that will be BS, but it will happen.
As far as a player Nylander isn’t close, he’s there. The idea of Nylander with Svechnikov on his wing is pretty exciting. It would be a minor miracle if this happened, but I would deal Necas+ for Nylander in a heartbeat.
One of the biggest issues with Necas’s development is that his line is the only line with rookies that does not have a veteran with true leadership qualities that can take him under their wing and show him the way to play the game. Foegele has Williams and Staal leading by example and is finding success exceeding our expectations. Matinook is leading Svech and Wallmark by example and they are all finding success. McGinn is the only veteran on Necas’s line, but he does not yet have the leadership qualities of the other veterans. If Rask were available, he could probably help with face-offs and two-way center play, but speed on offense may be an issue. Without a veteran mentor, Necas is probably better served with some development time in Charlotte. There would be less pressure and Vellucci has shown he can get these kids ready for the NHL.
1. RBA said it best when recently asked about Foegele – they told Foegele at the beginning of training camp to prove that he belongs here. He has.
Another thing RBA said shortly after being named coach – he wanted to help Staal become more of an offensive player. Foegele has added a jolt of energy to Staal-Williams that was missing last season from McGinn. With 3G/2A Staal is on the way to his best start ever as a Hurricane. Williams has 4A. Staal no longer centers a shutdown line – with Foegele that line has become a possession line with high offensive potential.
Again, I like to focus off the individual player and onto the unit/team/system and what the addition of that player means. Which leads to…
2. Necas has shown flashes of offensive brilliance with mediocre, at best, play at other times. When he has been good there has been no one there with him to take advantage of it. Zykov, McGinn, and PDG make poor linemates and if that is the best we can do to put on Necas’ line maybe going down to Charlotte for a spell would be the best. That said, before sending him I would like to see him with some different players on his wing. I think Ferland’s strong north-south game, net presence, and ability to cover/mentor would fit well (and open a spot on Aho/Turbo line for Zykov – a much better fit for him and I think Zykov is a better fit for Aho/Turbo than Ferland). And/or bring up Kuokkanen – another European playmaking center. Maybe that pushes McGinn to the outside looking in (with PDG) but why not try?? But then what do I know, eh? 😀
I think Necas will be fine. He has taken the route of Aho. He played post draft year in Europe. Aho didn’t get his first goal until November. It has been four games and some think he is a trade candidate? Top ten prospects don’t come along that often.
It is reasonable there would be growing pains. Necas may be the best pure skater on the team and that is saying a lot. Let him play and when Rask gets back maybe shift one of the two to wing. RBA has shown he has a good feel for the team.
Foegele is just a beast. No commentary needed. Just do what you do.
I am not sure about the repeated calls for Zykov with the top line. Ferland seems to be doing fine. Zykov is very talented but in a very narrow scope. His contract and playing time so far lead me to believe the organization is not as high on him as some fans. He may find his role but not sure on what line that would be right now.
To be clear, I don’t think Necas is a trade candidate…but for Nylander? Yes.
Like some others, I thought Necas would be best served if he had Ferland and Svechnikov on the wings. They could take advantage of what Necas already does well – setting up goal scorers. Based on last season, I thought the Aho line would do well with Zykov. I also underestimated how well Svechnikov would do playing with Wallmark and Martinook.
Based on the Canes’ hot start, I’m not sure I would change anything, even though things have worked out very badly for Necas. In effect, he is being asked to play 4th line center, with linemates in McGinn and di Giuseppe who hustle and play hard on defense but struggle to score goals. When Zykov was on the Necas line, his speed wasn’t ideal for playing with Necas. Everything has worked out so that to look good, Necas has to excel at what he does worst. Arrangements have been great for the team but have put Necas’ weaknesses on display while hiding his strengths.
I hope RBA can figure out a way to give Necas a greater chance at early success without hurting the production of the other lines. I don’t know how that’s possible but I’d still like to see it happen.
Patience is a virtue. The teams play so far has covered up the slow development of the Necas line. Once Rask returns and Necas still can’t find a line and role, then perhaps Charlotte would be helpful. I think he needs to adjust to smaller rink and speed of NHL defense. I’m not sure Charlotte helps that much but if he is struggling after the New Year it could be a possibility.
Would I trade Necas for Nylander? Absolutely not. Nylander is an extremely talented player but if he is asking for 8 million a year, the Canes can better use that money. Necas has a confidence in his game and work ethic to gain 15-20 lbs this past year. He will be fine. Aho/TT and Necas/Svech will be the envy of much of the NHL in a few years.
If you want a real deal, top 6, playmaking centerman $8M is how much they cost. Nylander is that right now. Aho will be asking for that much as the season progresses.
Aho only weighs five pounds more than Necas and he is far stronger on his skates. Aho has always been strong on his skates. Teravainen is listed has heavier than both Aho and Necas and is very weak on his skates on the boards. Putting more weight on Necas probably won’t make that much of a difference. Its just one of those things. I am hopeful for Necas, but until you do it you aren’t a sure thing.
Right now, nylander is sitting in Europe hoping someone will pay him his asking price.? I hear a lot that he is a center but he has played mostly RW. If he was that great of a center why has Kadri been the number two guy for the past two years? If he is really that can’t miss center why did they spend 11 million on Tavares?
Our opinions are different on the player. No big deal. My point is Necas is going to be a really good player. He will figure out his game.
Kadri is a checking centerman. A very good one at that. Nylander is more of a playmaker, but is known to be solid defensively.
They signed Tavares because from what has been said he came at a discount to what other teams were willing to pay…and he’s one of the top 5 players in the league! Tavares’ contract is front loaded, so he will only be getting $8M once in his 30s.
I am high on Necas, but if you can turn a potentially good player into a definitely good player, you make that deal, IMO. Somewhat like trading Hanifin for Hamilton.
Despite Necas having a lot of talent, he is tradeable, if you can improve the team. However, I don’t understand why someone else would want him if he has a major fault to his game!
It’s possible that putting him on the wing might be a good idea. Sending him to Charlotte, to work on certain things isn’t a bad thing either. He’s young and has enough talent to be an excellent PRO! I wouldn’t force-feed him until he gets the hang of NHL SPEED /Technique!
You and I are on different levels of the armchair GM spectrum puckgod. Kid is 19 years old, and I am shocked at how some fans are evaluating a four game slow start, compared to what our BEST PLAYER SEBASTIAN AHO DID HIS FIRST TWO SEASONS.
Okay, all caps may have been a bit much, but I’m pretty sure I remember Aho having goal droughts of over a dozen games to begin both of his first two pro seasons, but since we’re comparing Necas to all the people coming up around him, we’ve apparently lost our consciousness of the slower development curve. If you want to bring Roy up eventually (because he’s on fire to start the season) and give Necas some AHL time to get his confidence up, I can see that as a legitimate possibility.
To think that we have any legitimate analysis of how Necas’ season will end up if he stays up at the NHL level for the whole season is kind of ridiculous though. He’s going to have to learn how to stay on the puck and play a defensive game eventually, but how does a 3-0-1 start completely make folks abandon the ‘Let the kids make mistakes and grow’ approach?
There are no burning questions with Necas. We’re 4 games in. He’ll either learn or Rod will send him down to the AHL if he feels like Roy is a better option. He’s an 19 year old kid who is just learning the game. We all gotta have some balancing opinions after such a hot start, it’s true, but dang let’s let Necas play a bit, huh?
Just a discussion, man. Part of the fun.
Just the same, I never remember Aho looking so out of his element. Stats are just the window dressing about how a player is actually playing.
Oh, indeed. The thing is with Necas is that he looks amazing one second, and then as you say, completely out of his element the next. His speed and passing ability continue to dazzle even at the NHL level. And as Matt said, his defensive game and his propensity to get knocked off the puck and around the rink way too easily is a legitimate area for concern.
But while Aho may not have looked completely out of place, Teravainen definitely did for a bit there. Another slow developer, and look where he is now. I don’t think the AHL is the necessarily the answer for Necas, but then, if we apply the ‘return to juniors’ rule and give Necas his 9 game try out for the season, I would definitely be willing to reconsider my opinions should he fail to produce in the next 5 games. I feel 9 games would be a fairly adequate window to determine whether or not to send him down, no?
Aho never played North American juniors, so I don’t think that rule applies. He can go down to the AHL at any time.
Excuse me, Necas…
I’m aware, I was just referring to it as an evaluational tool, as opposed to an actual contractual one. I just feel like it feels like a solid trial number in general, especially for someone of Necas’ caliber.
Fogger I agree. But if Roy continues his torrid pace it will be hard not to bring him up. Let Necas earn his $10,000 per game for a while (versus $1,000 per game in minors).
I agree blinkman. Bringing Roy up as a reward for his blistering start would be a legit reason for sending Necas down, but outside of that, I really don’t see a current necessity to do so. IMO
I’m not much into rewarding players and bringing them up. If they can help, bring ’em up! The two issues are a: does it help the team? and b: will it benefit Necas to be in Carolina or Charlotte?
Rod is.
I think the biggest disconnect with me for Martin Necas is that people often tend to see either what they want to see or expect see. (Reference people coming around to Faulk’s defensive struggles about a year and a half after they started).
People like to say that Necas looks good at times offensively which I think is what was expected this year. And if he makes one okay not great offensive play per game that is enough to feed the expectation. But for me the reality and the biggest concern with Necas is that he is struggling at the part he is good at — carrying and distributing the puck. In Tuesday’s game, I counted 4 plays where he made a move on a defenseman which bought him a tiny bit of time/space and then he proceeded to skate into a dead end. I think the difference is that at lower levels, that defenseman was out of the play and help arrived slower. So one move was enough to generate a scoring chance or passing lane. At the NHL level, not so much. He also struggles to figure out where the space is when he receives the puck in the neutral zone. Probably 3-4 times on Tuesday he received the puck and then had to chuck it to space when he ran out of time/space.
Shorter version…I think he is struggling even with the puck on his stick which theoretically is the most advanced part of this game. I do not think there is too much harm in giving him a few more games, but unless the trajectory changes (which it can quickly with 19-year olds), I think best is if he works to master the AHL first.
Related, I do not think anything has changed with his potential…just maybe the schedule for it. And I would not be looking to trade a talented 19-year old based on a slow start at the NHL level maybe ahead of schedule.
Matt, I agree.
My comments (on other threads) having nothing to do with Necas’ stats, but rather the details of his play. Results follow execution of dozens of smaller things, successful players do dozens of small things correctly. Necas simply has a large palate of things to work on to reach his ceiling, which is very high.
The burning question is, how best to move him towards his ceiling? And the balancing burning question is… what is the best thing for the team?
The best thing for the team is two-fold: have the most capable player in every position and put every player in position to develop most rapidly.
Right now, Necas isn’t the most capable player to have in his position. I have a slight preference for Kuokkanen over Roy, because I think his game translates better,
But back to Necas. This is a balancing act of the best interest of the team and the best way for Necas to develop. I have my opinion on that, and trust that RBA is closer and will make the right decision. This first chance to practice since the start of the season will be telling.
The Kuokkanen thing is interesting. I really like him as another player who is beyond his years in terms of hockey sense and decision-making somewhat like Wallmark and a bit like Rask when jumped to the NHL early.
But for whatever reason, I think the team sees him as a wing. He has played almost exclusively there since very early on when he played more at center in his draft year (prospect camp and Traverse City).
Necas is a reminder of how tough the center position is in the NHL. Face offs, defensive responsibility and much more involved in every facet of the game than a wing. Wings can “fly around” and do their thing. Centers get embarrassed when they lose their responsibilities.
I know Necas is a natural center but perhaps some time on Rasks wing would help him, once Rask returns. Necas has a place on the 2nd PP and 4th line center is not the worst thing in the world for a while to start the season. Hopefully he gets it figured out in the not too distant future.
To me this sound simple.
Necas isn’t quite ready and will not do much to help the team right now. He is better served playing a load of minutes in Charlotte to better figure it out.
Roy has been tearing it up down in charlotte, he has played hard, trained hard and deserves a shot in the NHL.
Bring Roy up and send Necas down for awhile. I don’t see how Necas can be overly offended by this or how it would hurt his development as a player, quite the opposite.
What will hurt his play and potential is if he keeps struggling, the team runs out of steam and people start blaming him for it, aka Lindholm.
He can play down in Charlotte for a game, or 5 or 20, when he dominates there bring him back up.
I think the strength of the team lies in the depth and competition for spots, using the players ripening in the farm system to bring an element of energy and surprise is smart use of those resources, especially when the Necas line is the one not clicking right now.
1. MCLovin is ready. He’s great – I expect he’ll be that Pat Maroon type player his whole career that can play on absolutely any forward line and make the line better by creating time and space for his teammates.
2. There’s a wide range of opinions regarding Necas on this post. From trade the scrub all the way to just be patient he’s totally fine. Obviously the truth must lay somewhere between. He’s clearly not looked particularly good so far – and I think if Nic Roy is ready then the team should go to him ASAP. I’ll actually feel more confident with a bottom6 of Roy + Wallmark than Wallmark + Necas at this stage. I also think Roy with his speed is a better match for a slow guy like Zykov.
It’s amazing how the Canes would have probably simply STARTED Necas in the minors this year if my LEAST favourite Cane was healthy – Victor Rask. I don’t like the guy but every game that passes (even despite the great record) i think to myself – dang the bottom 6 would be more reliable with Rask in it.
I will also staunchly disagree with the Aho to Necas year 1 comparisons. People are quick to bring up that Aho struggled to produce in his first 20 games. Well I will agree he struggled to PRODUCE, but he certainly did not struggle to PLAY. In fact every of those 20 games i’d say he looked PRETTY solid. Whereas Necas in his games has looked anything BUT solid – so big difference for me. Aho was a “it’s only a matter of time before he starts producing” whereas the question I have with necas is “how long will it take for him to even look like an AVERAGE NHL player out there? Cuz right now he looks lost”.