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Suddenly past the one-quarter mark of the 2017-18 season, finished with the November schedule and pushing rapidly toward being one-third of the way through the season, timing is right to start thinking about the standings.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a few angles on Eastern Conference standings math.
The current adjusted Eastern Conference standings
Because the Hurricanes have still played fewer games than most every other team, taking a quick glance at the standard NHL standings does not present a fair picture. That is because the standard standings format just tallies points and does nothing to account for games in hand. Using simple games above .500 math, the picture brightens a bit for the Hurricanes. Standings based on games above .500 currently place the Hurricanes only a point behind the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals who are tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Hurricanes versus expected playoff pace
My math says that it takes 94-95 points to make the playoffs and also that the simple formula to accomplish this is to earn two-thirds of the possible points at home and half of the possible points on the road. That yields a total of 96-97 points which is actually a point or two extra.
Thus far, the Hurricanes have been strong on the road but weak at home. The team’s 5-4-2 mark away from Raleigh is one point more than my playoff pace. Home is another story however. At home, the Hurricanes’ 5-4-3 record is three points shy of my playoff pace. In total, the Hurricanes are two points short of a playoff pace which lines up reasonable well with the one-point deficit in the current standings (adjusted for games played).
The Hurricanes as compared to 2016-17
With Sunday’s win and Tuesday’s overtime loss point the Hurricanes are now two points better than their 2016-17 pace. That might not sound like much, but projected out over the full season it represents 7-8 points. Eight more points in 2016-17 would have tied the Hurricanes with the Maple Leafs for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot.
Is the grass really greener?
In recent times, the Metropolitan Division has risen to the top and is arguably the toughest division in hockey. That bears out in the current standings. Right now, all five Eastern Conference playoff teams would come from the Metropolitan Division. In addition, if the Hurricane were instead in the Atlantic Division, they would be tied for the third and final divisional playoff spot. Worth noting is that the Western Conference does not so much offer an easier path to the playoffs. Fourth place in either division and also the final two playoff spots are filled by teams that are plus three wins above .500 which is the same as the cut line for the Eastern Conference.
Sizing up the competition
What concerns me most standings-wise right now is the way that some of the Metropolitan Division foes sprinting ahead right now. Five teams (Lightning, Maple Leafs, Blue Jackets, Devils and Islanders) are already plus seven or greater and seem to be running away from the pack. In addition, the two teams that the Hurricanes seem to be trying to catch right now are teams that figure to finish better than their current pace. While I do that it is possible that Penguins and Capitals take a step down in 2017-18, I think it is unlikely that the step down would be enough that they become an easy team to beat out for the final wild card slot. As such, the Hurricanes might be facing a tall task trying to catch up to two teams who are preparing to move up the standings now down.
Conflicting answers for the schedule ahead
Tuesday’s game in Columbus marked the start of an extended run of mostly road hockey. Counting Tuesday’s game, the Hurricanes will play 10 of their next 12 on the road before returning home for another round of home games during the holidays. My playoff math says that a 7-6 mark would be respectable (half of the points on the road). But with the way so many teams in the Metropolitan Division are surging right now, a 7-6 or 6-6 mark could see the Hurricanes fall even farther behind. As such, it would be nice to see the Hurricanes start fast on the trip, quickly push above .500 and then try to keep pace in the standings.
Stepping away from the math…Where are the Hurricanes right now?
Right now, the Hurricanes are very much in the big cluster of teams competing for the last couple playoff spots. The challenge here is that the NHL’s overtime loss points and the parity in the Metropolitan Division means that there could be 4-5 teams competing for the last playoff spot or two. That makes for simple odds of 50 percent or less. With a winning streak or just higher level of play, the Hurricanes are very much in the playoff chase right now. But at the same time, they are likely just one extended losing streak away from being out of it. Such is the life of an NHL playoff bubble team.
What does it take to make the playoffs?
I think making the playoffs will require two things First is that the Hurricanes will need to find at least one extended winning streak that vaults them up the standings. Something like 7-8 wins in a row would do it as would a stretch in which the team wins 12 of 14 or similar. Of the teams that pushed into the playoffs in 2016-17, most had at least one big winning streak to drive separation from .500. In addition to finding one burst that pushes the team upward, the other key is avoiding extended losing streaks. Thus far, the Hurricanes have scored well for rebounding fairly quickly. In looking at the schedule, February looks most favorable for pushing up the standings. Starting with January 30 and extending 20 days, the Hurricanes play a whopping 10 out of 11 games at home. If the Hurricanes can stay competitive until then, the home-heavy portion of the schedule could present an opportunity to push into the playoffs.
What say you Caniacs?
1) How many points will it take to make the playoffs and will the Hurricanes get there?
2) Which 2-3 of the Metropolitan Division teams currently above the Hurricanes have the best chance of being caught?
3) What will it take for the Hurricanes to find a higher gear and push up the standings?
Go Canes!
1. 96 and doubtful (unless we go on a crazy winning streak like last year)
2. Rangers and Capitals
3. More consistent players. Everyone is very streaky out there. The team has put it all together twice all season. Either young guys need to be brought up to push the older guys to play or trades need to happen.
1-2/ The most predictable back-of-the-napkin marker I use to determine who the better teams actually are is goal-differential (goals scored less goals allowed). It’s very rare that a team with a negative number makes the playoffs and very likely that a team with a positive number makes the playoffs. Looking at the Atlantic, that doesn’t bode well for any team not finishing in the Top 3.
Looking at the standings in the Metro now, I think PIT, WAS, and NJD are in no better shape than we are – in some cases worse shape – and the NYR only slightly better (which can be rectified tonight by us). That seems right to me: I just don’t think that PIT or WAS are elite anymore, are going to struggle, and likely be on the bubble all season long (especially PIT with Matt Murray on IR for a while).
NYI seem for real (to my surprise) and CBJ is just all-around solid: those are my two “locks” for the Metro. The other three places are up for grabs.
3/ Again, I sound like a broken record here, but we have NOT been consistent or found our formula for winning yet and we’re still very much alive. The last three games (TOR, NAS, and CBJ) though have been very encouraging and our best stretch of the season: our play far exceeded the number of points we earned. If we continue to play at that level, and consistently at that level, we should avoid a long losing streak and make incremental progress in the standings. We might even run off a small streak.
It’s going to come down to solid goaltending and cleaning up the defensive “oopses.” On that score, Hannifin has really improved as the season has gone along; I think he’s the story on defense no one is talking much/enough about. And how sound Fleury has been for a rookie.
1. 96 points
2. Capitals. And if Murray is on IR for an extended period, maybe Pittsburgh(admittedly, most of the -16 goal differential is from the Niemi experiment.)
3. Consistency, especially from the goalies and the D.
And I highly recommend the Canes and Coffee coffee mug. It’s better quality than the NHL.com mugs.
1. 95. Yes
2. Devils and Islanders—just don’t see their goalies being enough for 82 games.
3. Strangely enough I think we began to see it last night. The D needs to produce points. Almost all the teams above the Canes get significant assists or goals from D-men. If last night continues, Canes will improve on 6-4-3 record posted in Nov.
1. I’m feeling 95 points might do it this year. And I think yes, we’ll make it. But I’m afraid this team will drive us all insane by the time it actually does happen (see number 3…).
2. I can’t see the Islanders keeping up the pace they’re at now. And the Capitals just don’t seem to have a team built for the long haul.
3. I do think this team, as is, does have a higher gear they can reach, and perhaps a MUCH higher gear – it’s just taking them a long time to find it. Much like when I first learned to drive an old Plymouth Duster with a “three on the tree” standard transmission. But much like I did with that old car, this team is getting a feel for what it takes to make things go. We all have to keep in mind just how young they are. I happened to see Sebastian Aho and Teravainen at a North Hills restaurant on Thanksgiving Day, and when you see them in a ‘normal’ setting, you realize they’re basically just kids. And at that age, things just take longer to sink in, whether it’s just basic life issues, or in the case of a professional hockey player, the myriad of details they have to absorb on a daily basis to play this crazy sport. So it’s gonna take time for these young guys to ‘get it’. And it’s gonna take patience from the fans (yeah, I know…) to give them that time. But the good part is that it’s starting to happen. You can see it, and the winning snowball will only grow.
1. 97pts NO, NOT THIS WAY, Canes can’t dominate at home even!
2. The closest teams NYR-have the King in goal!
Pit-has 87
Was-has the great 8…Canes (as presently assembled) won’t catch’em
3. The roster has to be better-at least one significant trade!
1. 97 points might be the cutoff line (just too many quality teams to leapfrog). Those teams have already figured out their style and capitalize on a good percentage of opportunities (we’re still figuring that out). And to Puckgod’s point, the Canes as constructed won’t get there.
2. I think team’s will figure out Jersey and the NYR’s before February.
3. We need a change in dynamic (one catalyst and veteran defensemen).