With the 2019-20 season hanging in doubt, the season could potentially become a missed opportunity for older teams whose potential to hoist the Cup will decrease in the coming years. But the Carolina Hurricanes are very much a team whose future chances will likely be better than the team’s chance in 2019-20. For that to become true requires the Hurricanes to improve from being a team battling at the edge of the playoff cut line to being a team in the next tier.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe speculates on what it takes mostly from the current roster for the Hurricanes to rise into the top tier of teams in the NHL that are expected to compete for the Stanley Cup.
On defense
A tiny bit more offensively is always welcome, but for defensive anchors Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin, I think they really just need to keep doing what they have been which is be stalwart defenders and the leaders for two capable defense pairings. I question whether Dougie Hamilton’s scoring pace from 2019-20 is sustainable, but I think simpler for Hamilton is just repeating the basics of what he did in 2019-20. He boosted the offensive from the bak line at even strength, on the power play and as a bonus in overtime, and equally importantly his lapses defensively were minimal such that he was a bona fide top 4 defenseman defensively while being elite offensively. Exact goal and point totals for Hamilton are not as important as just being a difference-maker offensively and defensively. Hamilton is only signed through the 2020-21 season, so being part of the long-term requires inking him to a new contract. That makes three core defenders which makes the next slot critical. The Hurricanes have options but no established #4. Haydn Fleury has made step-wise development and finally looked capable in more than a depth role recently. Jake Gardiner historically was a capable second pairing defensemen in a bit of the offense-leaning style as Hamilton. He struggled mightily early on, but has also been better of late. And then the Hurricanes also added Brady Skjei who very clearly has the skating ability and physical skill set to be a top 4. One of these three left shots must emerge and be more than someone that Brett Pesce is trying to prop up for the Hurricanes to complete the top 4.
Summary: Team needs more of the same from Slavin, Pesce and Hamilton and someone to emerge as a good, not just adequate, #4 defenseman.
At forward
With Andrei Svechnikov making good strides in his sophomore campaign and Martin Necas having a Svechnikov-like rookie season that hopefully suggests a similar trajectory, the Hurricanes are becoming deeper offensively. No doubt Svechnikov and Aho could have one more gear higher offensively despite how good they are already. Teuvo Teravainen has grown to become a great two-way player capable of excelling in any situation. Add in Martin Necas if he continues to grow and Warren Foegele who brings a different element and the Hurricanes have a nice core of offensive leaders. But I actually think the next leg up for the Hurricanes will be to what degree these players mature in terms of two-way play. All of Aho, Svechnikov and Necas have their moments defensively but are still prone to too many lapses such that the development of the defensive part of their games is not at the same level as the offensive part of their games. Coupled with a few other wings in Nino Niederreiter and Ryan Dzingel whose games are more developed offensively than defensively, and the Hurricanes forward group can be really loose defensively at times.
Past that I think a key will be the team’s ability to build out depth either from within the system or possibly with additional work from Don Waddell. The acquisition of Micheal Ferland over the summer and Nino Niederreiter during the season were instrumental in the Hurricanes’ push into the playoffs in 2018-19, but Waddell’s moves have not been as magical for the 2019-20 season. Erik Haula started like gang busters with a series of mostly power play tallies and looked to be the answer at least short-term for anchoring a third line. But he seemed to lose some momentum with his injury and faded before being traded. Niederreiter has struggled to find the magic he had upon arrival in 2018-19. And Ryan Dzingel has similarly underperformed in terms of expected goal scoring. On the positive side, Morgan Geekie had an impressive even if sample size-limited start at the NHL level. But I think there is room for youth and or Waddell’s work to improve the depth especially in terms of scoring capability at the wing.
Then finally, beating a dead horse, I continue to think that finding a difference-making center who can be a catalyst for a second scoring line will be critical. Could it be Necas taking switching back to center ice and making big strides in his sophomore campaign like Necas? Could Geekie’s phenomenal start be just the beginning? Is Vincent Trocheck the answer? A bit like the all-important #4 defense slot, the contribution of a second offene-leaning center will likely play a significant role in where this team’s peak is a couple years out. With a second scoring line, the team becomes a two-headed monster than can match fire power with anyone. Without it, the team teams to be a bit shallow offensively maybe especially if Jordan Staal continues to be a scoring-limited defensive center.
Summary: I think underestimated is the need for the Hurricanes group of young forwards to continue to grow defensively to chart a path more toward Patrice Bergeron and less toward Jeff Skinner. Past that I think the other key is finding a second scoring/playmaking type center who can be a catalyst for a second scoring line behind Aho’s. Finally, Waddell may have some work to do to find complementary scoring help at wing.
In goal
The question in goal is whether a maximum version of the Hurricanes needs elite or close in net or if NHL average with a boost from an improving team defensively is enough. I lean toward thinking that the latter is enough. In today’s day and age, teams mostly need two goalies, so balance can be as important as having a great #1. For certain though, the team will need to have average or better goaltending to play its way into the upper echelon of the NHL. Is Petr Mrazek that guy on a consistent basis like he was during the 2018-19 surge up into the playoffs? Is Alex Nedeljkovic ready to seize an opportunity and become that goalie? Is this another area that might require some work from Waddell?
Summary: I am torn on whether the Hurricanes need to be great or just good enough in net but lean toward the latter. Nevertheless, the goalie position more than any other has the potential to sink even pretty good teams if it is not up to par.
What say you Canes fans?
1) If you had to identify 2-4 keys for the Hurricanes to rise up another notch or two and into the top echelon of the NHL, what would they be?
2) On defense, is it as simple as having the big 3 (Pesce, Slavin, Hamilton) continue on their current paths and then having someone settle into the #4 slot? Or…?
3) At forward, do you agree that developing defensively will be a key component? What would you identify as a key or two for the position?
4) Finally in net, do you think the Canes need to have a top-tier goalie or could good enough be good enough? What do you see for answers either internally or externally?
Go Canes!
The rumor circulating on Hockeybuzz today suggests that every team will be able to buy out one player (standard buyout terms apply for money but there will be no cap hit).
Assuming our owner will still be financially viable there’s a chance the team can atone for one mistake with minimal consequences (I’d say probably Gardner, possibly Brady).
As for the topic, yes, we need a solid guy to round out the top 4 on D. I would be more comfortable with Fleury being a third pairing D man with upside to jump into the top 4 but I trust neither of the aforementioned guys to be reliable top 4 D unless one takes a significant step on the defensive side of the puck.
At forward, I’m 100% in agreement with your assessment.
I’m also curious to see if Steven Lawrence of another Checkers player may be able to rise up and inject some energy and potential into the group. A quick look at the UFA pool didn’t yiled any surefire matches for me, and I am in adament agreement that the team should be more generous giving chances to promising prospects, striking a better balance between over trusting and over doubting them.
Next season could be pretty exciting. No idea what happens with this one.
For now, we just have to focus on surviving endless stay-at-home orders without getting sick (physically or of each other). 🙂 Once that’s done anything’s possible.
I think Bokk and Suzuki will be coming as well for young forwards. Lorentz and Cottton also. We did gut the farm team but still have some good pieces coming.
Well, Mike Hoffman is a UFA and does not appear to be resigning with Florida.
He’s not a home run but he’s a big guy who can score, those are not all that easy to find.
if he accepted a 6 mill per year on a 4 or 5 year deal I’d be interested, only 2 mill more than Gardner and likely to contribute a lot more.
1. One key – forecheck. As in have one. Playing better Team D is another one. I don’t view this as we need better D-men – we need to play better as we transition out of the d-zone. There are too many mistakes trying to exit the d-zone with the puck leading to Grade A opportunities. And I am not convinced that having the D as active in the o-zone is a great idea. Our o-zone blueline can be a sieve.
2. Slavin, Pesce, Hamilton are all top D-men. We don’t need a 4th at that level. We need someone who can fit in there. I am not as negative on Skjei as breezy – I think he will slot fine there. In fact, I look forward seeing him paired with Hamilton when play resumes.
3. Transitioning out of the d-zone was, to me, the biggest issue – and that falls on both forwards and d-men. I would have hoped for more secondary scoring from people we brought in to fill that role. I thought when we were playing 5×5 we were solid while playing defensively.
4. Good enough is good enough. We don’t need elite goaltending – and elite goaltending is generally very transitory. We didn’t have elite last year with Mrazek and Mac – but they were quite good. Mrazek and Reimer are only a shade below that.
I like Ned – his shot comes next year. And Ihat Russian we drafted – time to bring him to the US. Booth and Helvig are not NHLers. I don’t know who else is out there, but a goalie on the AHL/NHL cusp would be a good add (like Forsberg).
Goalie situation should be OK with Mrazek and Reimer, but I’m not sold on Ned as a NHLer. Hopefully another young guy can be acquired /drafted to improve the GK depth.
Our Dmen, when healthy, should be more than adequate.
Finally, I think we need more forward depth after the trades of several AHL and NHL guys!
Of course these things are looking forward to next year, but I’m not confident that we will see any more hockey this year!
1) better goal tending and present players just getting better with more experience.
2) I think we are okay on D. Right now we are missing 2 of our top 3. I think Fleury could grab the #4 spot. Skjei was making too many mistakes. He was not impressing me. Him and Gardner are the replaceable ones but both of them could still surprise. With what we have coming (several good D prospects) I think we are fine on D.
3) yes. Our guys are young. The future is bright. RBA will not allow skinner types. They will find little ice time if they try that. RBA will not allow them to not be complete two way guys.
4) this is the problem to me. I love Mrazek’s enthusiasm but he has not been average. Reimer did not have as many starts but was more solid. Ned did not impress (still hoping for him). It’s not an easy position and things can change every year but this is where I believe our biggest weakness is. Look at the big high dollar names who have not performed this year. It’s a crap shoot most of the time from year to year. This is where I would be focusing. I do not think we need a super #1, I think two good well rested goalies is better. I was not feeling comfortable with Mrazek in net this year.
I’m surprised folks are lumping in Skjei with Gardiner. Skjei was suddenly traded and came to a team missing two of their top three Dmen. Skjei had some rough moments, but also had some really good games. He’s big and can skate. For sure, he has made some noticeable mistakes, but they seem correctable. He’s going to be moved down the lineup, get fewer minutes, and generally have better matchups in the future. Give him time and to get settled into his appropriate spot on the team.
Gardiner on the other hand… he’s been given opportunities up and down the lineup. It’s clear he’s a step (or two) slow at this point, AND makes a ton of costly mistakes. He’s a liability on the ice and everyone knows it. For the most part, GMs should avoid signing Dmen who are approaching or over 30 and who are coming off injuries.
To be fair, Skjei may have been adjusting to the system, it takes awhile, we saw it with Hamilton, so he perhaps deserves the benefit of the doubt here. Yet, too many defensive lapses.
The Chicago blogger on Hockeybuzz is predicting the tuyouts and has Carolina buying out Gardner obviously, ironically, or not, Blues buying out Faulk’s contract.
There are some interesting options there and if teams really are allowed to exercise a buy out some interesting pieces could become available for the Canes.
If nothing else, it’s fun to speculate. Maybe we should take a look at the FA class and suggest some trades or similar to pass the time.
1) Finding internal contributors. I think most fans look too much at needs and think “if we could just acquire _______.” Quite a few teams have landed Karlsson, Duchene, Bobrovsky, Hall, etc. More misses than hits. I believe if the team gets a boost it will be from Ned, Bean, and Geekie or Lorentz.
2) Yes. Pretty simple. Faulk was one of the best defenders in the league next to Pesce. I think Fleury will eventually get there.
3) The Canes played well defensively, but also gave up quite a few high danger chances. I think it is as much about overall style as individual players.
4) Top-tier like Bobrovsky or top-tier like Merzlikins and Jarry?
The canes must have lost a lot of money this year so I don’t think they will be buying anyone out. They will probably dump Gardiner like they did Dehaan.
I am worried Pesce’s shoulder will be an issue. Playing D puts a lot of stress on the shoulder.
Next year, Trocheck needs to be a big contributor.
This year is over.
Boy…. I sure do miss you guys … and hockey! I hope everyone and their loved ones are well and are staying safe. Hopefully, we will be together again soon!
Same here. All is well for my family and CT is doing better overall. Been spending way too much time searching hockey minutiae. Take care everyone.
Hope y’all are doing great and staying safe.
What do people think about some sort of a wrap up to the season?
To me it feels like it would be better to drop it and focus on next season. I don’t see much benefit in trying to bring the players back, to play an intense series of games with no audience, even if a champion would eventually be decided it wouldn’t feel like a real champion.
Also players would have to spend significant time away from home, risk injuries (by being rushed back), play in bad ice condition (during the cup finals you noticed that the game could get awkward due to the high outside temperature), and players would probably need to play into July or August and would then have to get ready for next season starting a month later.
If this is the case, how do team treat the trade deadline? Maybe rental players would have to give the team tha traded fir them first dips on a year contract, or trades could be reversed, or maybe teams just have to accept the situation for what it was, though it stings for teams that went all in.
For the Canes, I’d love to undo most of the trades, though Vinnie could turn out alright.
The team does not need the two d men they traded for.
Breezy. Hope you are well
Great to have someone get a new C&C discussion going—I sure miss my daily cup, or entire pot in my case.
I think there are no easy answers. As a business, the NHL and individual teams surely want to salvage whatever income they can—games would surely draw significant audiences and advertising revenue. But all your concerns are valid. Any winners won’t seem quite as impressive. Both conditioning and the playing conditions could lead to injury. Many of the terms of trades close to the deadline will be in dispute.
Usually I am full of my own opinions. However, like many things impacted by Covid, I don’t know what the best answer would be. Personally, I would love to watch hockey again—because as I mentioned above without games I am spending way too much free time going down the rabbit hole of advanced stats, prospect scouting reports, and other hockey-related stuff.
We, as fans, don’t have skin in the game – the league, the teams, and the players are the ones who count. And all three want to find a way to finish the 2019-20 season and as long as they all do I fully support it as well. To put it another way, there are only certain members of the fanbase and media who are saying the season should be cancelled. Let them figure it out.
There will certainly not be fans in the stands, and that will be a huge revenue loss. I seriously doubt the 2020-21 season will start with fans, regardless of when it starts. Sporting events and concerts will be among the last things opened and it is unimaginable to me that will open unless there is a vaccine.
And that will affect all sorts of contract-based issues – like the cap and escrow for next season (maybe beyond?).
But, as ct says, the league and owners want any income and the players want pay.
Additionally a lot of players have performance-based bonuses and none of the players want to forego playoff money. They are not going to leave that money on the table if they can avoid it.
All those conditional picks at the trade deadline? – the league and teams have to find a way to resolve that if they don’t finish the season.
But the players, teams, and the league will all make sacrifices to finish the season in one form or another. And I am definitely on-board with that.
The league has already asked teams about arena availability through September as well as exploring the 4 hub cities, and have indicated they will play at least that late to finish the season and then not start the 2020-21 season until December.
What is the old saying, “whatever it takes!” 😀
I certainly would not avoid watching hockey if it were available. 😉
The AHL has decided to cancel the rest of the season + playoffs. The revenue loss there is probably the equivalent of lost dimes behind sofa cushions compared to the mothership (or is it the Death Star), but I wonder if this is a hint of things to come on the big stage.
One of the best things about post season hockey, typically just the final series, is the ability to to go the pool with a beer or 3 for the pre-game, then go home and watch hockey.
Maybe I can practice my floating skills prior to regular season games after all.
I think it is an open-ended question if the NHL teams that do not own their AHL affiliate teams – which is the majority of NHL teams – will subsidize the costs to the AHL organization for icing a team without fans in the arenas.
I think the AHL will be smaller next year. I don’t know what will be done about the ECHL and other leagues. Maybe send players to Europe.
I thought the season was over and with 2+ months off it will feel like it is, but the NHL needs the money so they will be back this summer.
I would bet on hub cities across Canada. The Canadian politicians are behind that plan. The Canadian dollar is down to about 60% of the US(down mostly because of the crash in Oil)..
Hi guys, just figured out that the last post has a lot of new comments, DUH! Only a month and a half of ignorance…and it isn’t BLISS!
Like ya’all have been desperate for hockey. My time has mostly been used to read, and create “draft lists”! Not that I know much about the potential draft picks, but I know some names, and relative skill levels now. Well, hope you guys are healthy and happy (I know that last one might be a stretch)…l8tr
This is a non-hockey story…The Nascar community had a race today, and guess what…? …no one came.
Why??
I could tell you what the rationale for this IS, … but..apparently enough IDIOTS HAVE ALREADY DECIDED THAT…you might get sick by being in the same ZIP CODE!
How stupid can our COUNTRY, CITIZENS, FELLOW DOLTS…BEEEE???
Matt, hope everything is going well for you…look forward to hearing from you again! I’m excited to hear about the potential return of hockey. Seems like the powers-to-be have NOT BEEN KIND to the Canes, but at least the possibility for more hockey is encouraging!
GO CANES!
Jake Bean has been nominated the AHL defenseman of the year.
Now we will have another chance to see how well AHL all star success translates to the big league.
Jake hasn’t been the super success story we wanted, we’re spoiled by Slaven and Pesce, but I think he has great potential and he played extremely well down in Clt this season. I peg him as being a surprise, if not when play resumes then next season.
If Hamilton is traded or does not resign we need someone like Bean to step up and be a Hamilton Lite (even that is asking a lot).
If Hamilton is resigned Jake could be traded to a team desperate for d prospects and overflowing with second line caliber centers.
However things evolve, congrats to the Beaner for being the best on the back end.