Thursday was a huge news day from a Carolina Hurricanes perspective.
Just before the first of two practices kicked off at 2:45pm, the team announced that it had named Justin Williams its captain. I offered my initial thoughts on that announcement HERE.
Shortly before that the team announced that Victor Rask had undergone surgery on his fourth and fifth fingers from an injury sustained in a kitchen accident earlier in the summer and would be out indefinitely.
And somewhere amidst that fray, news broke that the Ottawa Senators had traded Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks for what could best be termed a sizable collection of random pieces.
Though not directly related to the Carolina Hurricanes, this last announcement is the topic of today’s Daily Cup of Joe.
How the Erik Karlsson deal could impact the Hurricanes
Erik Karlsson was by far and away the best player left who seemingly had to be moved, and he would have stood atop the list of available defensemen even before the list had been mostly cleared. In terms of basic skill set, Karlsson is an offensively gifted right shot defenseman who brings a ton in terms of generating offense and scoring. He is adequate or maybe better but not elite defensively to top 4-capable and well worth it given the offense he brings.
To be clear, Justin Faulk is not the same caliber of player as Erik Karlsson, but for a team looking for a right shot, experienced top 4 defenseman who can play on a first power play unit and contribute offensively Faulk checks all the same boxes even if in the form a somewhat lower caliber player.
As such, could at least a couple of the teams in hot pursuit of Karlsson turn their attention to Faulk as the next best option for that general skill set? At a bare minimum, I think there is now a set of exploratory phone calls for Don Waddell to make and a good chance that at least a couple teams are willing to consider Faulk at some price.
But the team says Justin Faulk is staying…
Don Waddell said recently that the team expected to enter training camp (done) and the regular season with Justin Faulk in tow. There were some comments about the goodness of defensive depth. Those who report or take management’s comments at face value seem to think Faulk is suddenly part of the longer-term plan again.
Though the team might be willing to ride into the 2018-19 season with Faulk still onboard because trade value was not or is not what they want, make no mistake that trading Faulk is likely a priority right now for a couple reasons
Sticking to the original plan
Shortly after Dougie Hamilton was acquired and before Calvin de Haan was signed, I wrote an article on July 3 entitled, “Is the other shoe about to drop? If so, what does that entail?” One of two domino of deals scenarios detailed suggested three moves. Justin Faulk would be traded for a forward to replace Jeff Skinner. Calvin de Haan would be added via free agency to fill out the top 4 on defense and balance the left and right shots. And Jeff Skinner would be traded for futures. The order has been been different, but the de Haan and Skinner moves happened obviously leaving only the Faulk deal to close out the interrelated set of transactions that I predicted.
Justin Faulk’s name was first in line when the rumor mill kicked off prior to the 2018 NHL Draft weekend. His name as bandied about in all directions. The team did nothing to step in the way of those rumors early on. Then the team basically added another top 4 pairing when Dougie Hamilton was acquired via trade and Calvin de Haan as a free agent. By my estimation and I think the team’s too, the move pushed Faulk down to the third defense pairing. As much as it would be nice to have such depth on the blue line, I do not think that makes any sense for longer than necessary for a couple significant reasons.
1) Faulk is redundant in a right shot third pairing role. Trevor van Riemsdyk filled this role well in 2017-18 and returns. Sure, having extra players is a nice luxury to have, but the team does not really need two right shot third pairing defensemen.
2) Faulk is too pricey for that slot. The luxury of having an extra veteran defenseman around might be okay if Faulk’s salary was less, but at a cap hit of $4.8 million and an actual salary of $6 million each of the next two years, that is a pricey luxury that makes little sense.
3) Faulk is not likely part of the long-term plan, so the time to collect value is now. By my estimation, I do not think Faulk is part of the long-term plan. If I am correct, he will be gone after the 2019-20 season regardless. Rather than losing him for nothing, the team should do what it an to parlay Faulk into a return of some kind.
4) Faulk’s departure is part of the intended and necessary roster and leadership shake up. The team will never say it directly (though actually they mostly did after Skinner’s departure, so maybe they will do it again), but I think Faulk was likely on a short list of players who management deemed as necessary parts of resetting and starting anew with a new attitude, culture, mentality, leadership, etc.
5) Faulk is likely getting in the way of the longer-term plan for team leadership. In my article on Justin Williams being named captain, I positioned him as being a ‘bridge’ to the next long-term captain in writing:
You heard it hear first…
1) Sebastian Aho and Jaccob Slavin will share an ‘A’ as soon as Justin Faulk is traded.
2) One of them will the team’s next captain for the 2020-21 season, and that could see but does not require Justin Williams to retire. The team will not say it publicly, but between Rod Brind’Amour, Justin Williams and a few others in the inner circle, part of the assignment that Williams knowingly took today was to groom the next leader for the team.
If that assertion is correct, Justin Faulk is currently sitting in a leadership spot that needs to be used to start one or both of Jaccob Slavin and Sebastian Aho on the path to becoming the team’s next long-term captain after Justin Williams builds the bridge for him.
So while I fully acknowledge that Faulk’s departure could be held up waiting for a reasonable return, I still think his departure is still a priority and is ultimately inevitable be it in the few weeks leading up to the season or possibly later.
So why now and who are the possible suitors?
One might figure that if there was not a reasonable deal to be had for Faulk that one would not emerge until into the season when injuries and underperformance create new needs for teams. But in fact that need might just have been created when multiple teams in the bidding whiffed on winning the Erik Karlsson sweepstakes. All it takes is two or three of those teams to deem Faulk the next best option and good enough to fulfill the need. If that happens, there could suddenly be a better market Faulk.
Teams linked to Erik Karlsson at one point or another over the summer include Tampa Bay, Dallas, Las Vegas and Colorado. Toronto and Edmontn have also been said to be seeking blue line help. If Canes general manager Don Waddell could stir up a little bit of interest and a little bit of noise, those things have the potential to spin up enough of a bidding war to get something close to a fair return for Faulk.
I will skip specific trade proposals for Faulk for right now and maybe revisit soon if Faulk is not moved quickly, but more generally the Karlsson trade could spur the market for the next best option in Faulk.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How much, if at all, do you the Karlsson trade increases the probability that a Faulk deal happens next?
2) What is the probability now that Faulk starts the 2018-19 season still playing for the Hurricanes?
3) Who has specific trade proposals that could be reasonable?
Stay safe with Florence visiting today!
Go Canes!
1. I’d say it increases by about 20% (from around 50 to around 70).
2. 30% (see 1)
Though more likely than not, I should be noted that what Ott collected for the best offensive defenseman in the legue is at best underwhelming (the Hockeybuzz folks all agree on that). It just about matches the return for skinner.
Also the Canes must get a player with NHL salary in return as they are current at the risk of dropping below the salary floor (if Rask goes on longterm IR).
3. Nothing less than a top 6 forward will do for Faulk, even if the Canes have to add prospects or picks to the package. A first round pick is not particularly desirable though that has more to do with the team’s inability to pick the right players in the first round (seriously, look at the team, how many players picked by the canes in the first round, not counting this year, are likely to be on the opening night roster, a total of one I believe, why did the team not shake up its scouting staff?).
I’m personally on board with giving faulk a fresh start in a canes uniform and see how it pans out. I don’t want another Pu and a pile of useless picks in return for proven NHL talent, even if that guy has had a bit of a slump (like the whole team) under Peters. We have too many so so prospects and the endless rebuild must stop. I’ll give a pass on this season but if the canes are not in the playoffs in 2020 I seriously predict the team is done in Raleigh.
Money is not an issue, more specifically the salary is moving towards too low for this season.
I think Faulk has potential to be a difference maker this year and can be traded next year. The cAnes have a whole glot of top 9 ish players to fill in the forward ranks and do not need any more.
Get a Nylander, an RNH or one of tampa’s forwards, preferably a center or, and I am only half kidding, trade Faulk to the Flames for Lindholm.
I agree breezy, DO NOT get another 4th line guy if a trade occurs. I would not be able to tolerate another skinner type trade. That will cost them a STH. Top 6 or don’t do it. RHN should have been on my list below.
Faulk should be “in play”, IMO.
I’M not sure what teams have something that the Canes want, and are willing to trade, but Tampa has some nice centers I’d like! Of course Edmonton (Nugent-Hopkins) would work, and Toronto has a Nylander situation which could force their hand…!
I’m still not feeling too optimistic about the committee making a big move…ugh!
Yah, I thought TD had deep pockets and wanted a wining team. I guess we will see.
1) & 2) I think the most likely outcome is Faulk and one of Rask/Wallmark packaged after the season starts.
Matt. You have been prescient this offseason–with the de Haan call, being adamant Williams would be captain, Skinner for futures. Great insights as always.
However, I said a month or so ago that Rask began the season on injured reserve to give the team and the league an opportunity to see if Wallmark could replicate his AHL stardom at the next level. As you mention above, Rask’s injury occurred some time back. He may be having lingering complications that demand surgery. In any event, I don’t think the management team is totally stressed by the situation. Having Rask on IR due to a lingering shoulder issue could make teams wary. I don’t see the same concern generated from an issue with the “fourth and fifth fingers.” Getting Wallmark on the ice for 15 or so games is actually a good situation. If the audition indicates that Wallmark is ready for the NHL (say 6 or more points and good face-off %), then the Canes can offer Faulk and a proven center to the highest bidder.
The other option is that Faulk can be moved now for a player with a higher salary and then Rask can be moved for futures–keeping the Canes just above the cap floor. I would hope that means serious investment in Aho and Teravainen.
3) So what team needs both a right-shot offensively leaning D and a center? I think the top of the list would be Montreal. Faulk and Rask for Drouin and a 2019 2nd.
I can’t see Rask or Wallmark being moved any time soon. Who is going to trade for a 4th line centerman, who has skating issues, has a significant injury, and makes $4M/year? You aren’t getting futures for that. Maybe another player that makes a lot of money and is underperforming. At this point the team needs Wallmark. Who else is the fourth line center? I can’t see Necas on the fourth line. Wallmark has shown he can win draws in the NHL and play a two-way game. This is a big chance for him. Hope he is up for it.
I absolutely agree, lts, this is Wallmark’s turn.
Also agreed.
I don’t know that Faulk is moved at this point. How healthy is Pesce?
Which of those teams will give up a roster forward to get Faulk? None. We need the offense. Especially with Rask out.
Unless we make a move to pick Duchene from the Senators’ carcass, we cannot move goal scoring out for prospects.
What we’re not discussing as part of the trade-Faulk-soon chatter is how that affects the Blue Line this season: on paper at least, it shapes up to be the strength of the team. I would be somewhat wary of jeopardizing that for more offense before I saw how productive our forward group can be.
That said, I trade Faulk for the right offer. A pattern is emerging: players with a year left on their deals have lower trade value than many expected. First Skinner, then Pacioretty, and now Karlsson. Faulk’s extra contract year makes a difference and the return we get now/soon is going to be far more than the return we get next year if he’s not part of the long-term plan and we can’t let him walk for nothing.
I give the odds of a trade at 50/50 before Xmas.
The return for that trade is going to heavily depend on how the team plays and how much offense our youth produce. Of all the players mentioned over time, I like RNH the best; no one on TBY makes sense to me; we aren’t getting Nylander from TOR so it would be a player like Leivo or Kapanen but maybe we take Horton’s contract as a sweetener; I’m not sold on Duchene.
I’m not too high on Duchene either, but last year’s Senators were not exactly the best place for someone to have a bounce back season. Put between Aho and TT things would be different.
Can’t see that trade happening between Duchene’s being a UFA next season and Faulk’s NTC.
If they can’t get a strong offer, preferably a top 6 center (we’d probably have to add a player, picks, or prospect with Faulk), then the smart play is to wait for teams to get desperate. Teams like Edmonton and Toronto – RNH or Kadri – would make a ton of sense for Hurricanes. But teams don’t want to let go of their center depth, which is understandable.
I actually want to see this team with both Hamilton and Faulk. That could/should translate into much better PP production. It also makes sense to have a lot invested in blueline with huge question marks in net.
I think the Canes would trade Faulk, but aren’t desperate to trade him, yet. As the Canes go through camp and they see what they have in the young forwards, then you may see Faulk moved. Questions they need to answer are, how do the young centers fare? If Wallmark does well you don’t need a bottom 6 center. Necas is going to play, so that is one spot. Does Aho become a center? If not, they do need a top 6 centerman, but finding one of those is difficult.
If Faulk’s game improves it’s not crazy talk to think that van Riemsdyk gets moved. Easier trade with his contract.
Very good point mentioned by gocanes above. Pesce has some type of chest/lung issue and is questionable. That could affect the timing of any deal.
RBA has stated that Aho will start out in the Center position. Staal is 2C, Necas likely 3C, leaving 4C up for grabs. My gut tells me that Nic Roy is a better fit than Wallmark, but we shall see. Also, veteran centers such as Letestu and Winnik are on PTO’s currently and could be available for experienced depth.
I agree with the strategy of giving the young forwards plenty of opportunity to seize roles, but this is extreme. To expect them to replace the scoring lost from last year (Skinner-24, Lindholm-16, Ryan-15, Rask-14) is wishful thinking.
I have wondered whether the Karlsson trade does open that door. But I think these are two different types of trades from the buyers’ perspective.
Teams interested in Karlsson were looking for that franchise d-man – not someone who would merely improve their right side. The latter would be the buyers for Faulk. And teams are now in the mode of seeing what they have – and determining what they need. I expect teams will view Faulk as a valuable asset and I agree, Matt, I don’t think he has suddenly become again a part of the long-term picture for us. Rather, I think he was earmarked for a culture-change trade, not necessarily a hockey trade. We didn’t get what we wanted – but now if teams approach us because they want Faulk we are in a much better position of strength.
So two different types of trade from both the buyer (franchise vs. improvement) and seller (offseason = culture, pre and in-season = hockey).
So I don’t think the Karlsson trade has play on Faulk’s status.
Umm…The San Jose Sharks have a RD by the name of Brent Burns. I think they were set for a “franchise” RD. Karlsson made them better. A team that thinks Faulk will make them better will want a trade.
And now that have 2 franchise RHD – a team gunning for Karlsson is not a team that will be gunning for Faulk. Again, two different types of trade. In my opinion.
Rask’s injury may have increased the odds of a Faulk trade as much as the Karlsson trade.
1) I do believe it increases the probability of a trade. I would say 50/50. As stated, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Las Vegas, Colorado, Toronto and Edmonton are looking for D. Faulk is probably the next best thing. He does have a no trade active now. Not sure how many teams he could say no to.
We need a real forward if we do make that trade. Making him an A just increases the return value. Regardless of what management says publicly I am sure they are seriously considering this.
2) We are already in training camp. I would say 50/50 Faulk starts the 2018-19 season still playing for the Hurricanes.
3) Reasonable, it better be good or do not do it. No more 4th line guys. I said yesterday Nylander with the contract issues.
Then there are teams just trying to get value for someone that will probably move on, Duchene.
I think Walmark will replace Rask if no trade occurs.
With Dotchin now on waivers are the Bolts looking a new, young RHD?
Does Dotchin attract the interest of teams looking for improvement on RHD and jumps ahead of Faulk in that regard?
Scratch the second question – I was looking at the wrong stats! LOL! Dotchin is not close to a Faulk equivalent.
I suppose the Sens are done being fleeced. If not the Canes should push to get Stone from them, maybe Duchene.
The more I see teams get questionable to downright bad value for proven nHL talent around the league the less inclined I am to even entertain trading Faulk. Also reference my point on poor Canes first round scouting above.
As far as the future captains goes I do not think Rod Brind’Amour will have rotating alternate captains. He will pick the person that is the best leader in the room. The days of putting a letter on someone and hoping they live up to it are gone.
If I’m not mistaken Justin Williams has said he plans to retire here in Carolina. If the Canes have another disappointing season will he even resign? The Canes could be in the market for a new captain next year.
1) Most probable is that Faulk’s status is determined by the injury landscape. The first team that loses a top 4 right shot D to serious injury may be willing to pay enough to pry Faulk loose.
2) if no injuries drive the price up, he will start the season in Raleigh.
3) hard to project injuries and scenarios.
Also as a poster above also mentioned – the Canes have their own internal worries regarding injuries. I haven’t liked how quiet they’ve been regarding Pesce’s status. He’s an absolute anchor for the team and if he’s not 100% for the season or has to play hurt I’d say having TVR, Faulk, Pesce, and Hamilton as righties gives them some insulation.
And I am confused as to why Faulk is too expensive for the third pairing. That is the type of thinking you utilize when you’re making difficult cuts to a stanley cup contending roster where you need to save money. The canes are DEAD LAST in salary why is Justin Faulk too expensive for the Canes third pairing? If there are any teams that can afford to pay a higher AAV salary to fill roster spots that ‘could be’ cheaper it is the Canes..
e.g. Matt Irwin costs less than 1 million and is a solid effective 3rd pairing dman. High value grades.
Justin Faulk costs 4-5 million and is a ‘passable’ top 4 dman but would project to be a luxury on the 3rd pairing. Low value grades for the price, but if you didn’t have to worry about the salary cap who would you rather have on your third pairing? Clearly Faulk. Even if you used the SAME example with TVR -again without the worry of salary cap restraints you’d still take Faulk on the 3rd pairing over TVR.
The Canes don’t NEED to worry about Faulk’s salary cap – they need to worry about winning games and getting the most out of everyone.