A simplified look backward at the 2017-18 season, offers the following deficits to be overcome hopefully on the path to a return to the playoffs:
- For the 2017-18 season, the Hurricanes scored 225 goals as compared to 237 for 16th place Los Angeles for a 12-goal shortage. (General idea is that 16 teams make the playoffs, so in simplified terms that is a playoff cut line offensively.)
- And for the 2017-18 season, the Hurricanes allowed 253 goals as compared to 238 for 16th place Washington for a 15-goal shortage.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe addresses the scoring side of the ledger in trying to tally up scoring totals for a projected lineup.
Please remember to click ‘vote’ after each individual poll response.
The scoring line
Sebastian Aho (31 goals vs. 29 in 2017-18)
Aho finished with 29 goals in his sophomore campaign. While I do think Aho has upside yet from his 29 goals and 69 points in 2017-18, I think it requires a either a higher-end third line mate or chemistry that helps boost the line. As such, I put Aho at a modest increase despite the potential for significantly more.
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Teuvo Teravainen (25 goals vs. 23 in 2017-18)
Somewhat similar to Aho, I think the next leg up for Teravainen requires a third that clicks for their line. That is usually how point per game lines work, and I do not think it is any different here. As with Aho, I will give Teravainen a modest boost from the previous season.
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Valentin Zykov (20 goals vs. 3 in 2017-18 in short audition)
After a decent 9-game audition late in the 2017-18 season, Valentin Zykov is arguably the front runner to slot with Aho/Teravainen. He brings a blue paint style of play to the line and meshes well as a player who produces without playing a ton with the puck on his stick. His 33 goals in only 63 games at the AHL level in 2017-18 suggest a high ceiling, but I think my target is reasonable at the NHL level. Zykov’s total likely dips by quite a bit if he falls to a lower line with less offensive talent. I think 20 could be a bit conservative if he logs a full season with Aho/Teravainen but also think it is likely high if he lands on a lesser scoring line. Something more like 10-15 might be more reasonable on a different line.
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The top checking line
Jordan Staal (16 goals vs. 19 in 2017-18)
Playing more than half of the 2017-18 season with Aho/Teravainen yielded only a very modest boost in scoring. For as good as Jordan Staal is at his primary role as a high-end defensive center, I think the fact that Aho and Teravainen found a higher gear in 2017-18 and somehow did not really seem to take Staal with them shows that he is what he is offensively and that is with a modest ceiling scoring-wise. But I do think the wild card is Rod Brind’Amour as head coach. Playing a similar defense-first style of play and role, Brind’Amour had a couple huge seasons offensively, so just maybe he can coax the same out of Staal. But until I see evidence that that is the case, I am slotting Staal away from Aho and Teravainen and decreasing his goal total modestly because of it.
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Brock McGinn (13 goals vs. 16 in 2017-18)
McGinn is a tough one to project. His 16 goals in 2017-18 were impressive given his undersized ice time, minimal power play time and poor luck leading the NHL in shots off the goal posts. On the one hand, a bit more shooting accuracy or simple luck could have had him at 20 goals last year. In addition, it is not unreasonable to think that he still has one more gear offensively at the age of 24. On the other hand, part of me thinks his ceiling is that of a good depth forward such that he was pretty much at his ceiling in 2017-18.
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Justin Williams (16 vs. 16 in 2017-18)
Williams slipped from 24 goals with the Capitals in 2016-17 to only 16 with the Hurricanes in 2017-18. The downgrade is maybe not surprising going from a Capitals juggernaut to a Hurricanes team that struggled to score at times. As a player who plays a good complementary game offensively, Williams range for 2018-19 is partly a function of role and line mates. If he lands with more offensive talent, I could see him scoring a bit more, but if he lands with Rask of Staal which seems more likely, I think the 16 goals he had in 2017-18 is about right again.
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The opportunistic scoring line
Jeff Skinner (26 vs. 24 in 2017-18)
He still seems reasonably likely to be dealt before the start of the season, but tentatively, I slot him on a second scoring line. That is pretty similar to his role for the past few seasons, so I would expect similar results. The tricky part is figuring out what that is after 37 goals in 2016-17 but then only 24 in 2017-18. I think somewhere in lower end of the middle is about right. If he magically found chemistry with the talented kids, he could easily push higher, but my baseline assumes he continues to be a bit of a ‘do it yourselfer’ offensively which caps his upside a bit.
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Martin Necas (14 vs. N/A in 2017-18)
I am on record as loving Necas’ upside as a playmaking center. I also credit him for showing a bit more in terms of his shot and finishing ability during prospect camp in June. But I think his natural skill set leans and is more developed as a playmaker/passer, and he will also be a 19-year old rookie in 2018-19. Sure his upside is higher, but think a modest goal total is most likely in 2018-19, and even if he acclimates quickly, I think his near-term upside is more likely to register in the assist column.
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Andrei Svechnikov (20 vs. N/A in 2017-18)
As a #2 overall pick whose skill set is that of a scoring winger, Svechnikov has 40-goal potential. But like Necas, he will be an NHL rookie making a big jump to the NHL level. The difference with Svechnikov is that his strength is goal scoring. As such, I do not think an early rise and 30 goals is out of the question. But at the same time, tamer expectations are more reasonable for an 18-year old rookie likely to have some peaks and valleys. As a quick reference point, Aho had a big rookie season when he was a year older and notched 24 goals. No doubt more is possible, but I think anyone who considers it a sure thing is counting chickens before they are hatched.
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Netting out the top 9
A quick tally shows 183 goals for the top 9 forwards. That compares favorably to only 172 goals from the team’s top 9 scorers in 2017-18.
The (balanced) fourth line
Victor Rask (12 vs. 14 in 2017-18)
If Rask lands in a depth role and is pushed off of the power play units by the young guns, I actually think goal scoring will be the wrong measure of whether or not Rask rebounds. I think he could have a stronger season in a somewhat different role but not see it register in the goal column. People like to talk about balanced lines, but because of power play math, this not equate to balanced scoring. Teams have 6-8 power play slots for forwards. As such, players below that cut line will almost always see a scoring fall off because of lack of power play points. I think that could well be the case for Rask in 2018-19 even if his level of play rebounds.
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Micheal Ferland (13 vs. 21 (for Calgary) in 2017-18)
I think Ferland’s 2018-19 goal scoring could be largely dependent on role. I view him and Zykov as similar. Whichever (and I think they are the two leading candidates) lands with Aho and Teravainen should have 20-25 goal potential. If the other lands down the depth chart with Rask or possibly even Staal, I think that total dips significantly. So feel free to flip flop Zykov and Ferland if that is your priority, but my thinking is that the total between the two does not change that much.
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Jordan Martinook (5 vs. 5 (for Arizona) in 2017-18)
Jordan Martinook figures to have more of an impact with his physical play and hopefully as a standout as a penalty killer. But he is not devoid of goal scoring. If he can match the five that he scored in 2017-18, that would be a decent contribution from a fourth line role and superior to what the Hurricanes received from similar slots last year.
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Other depth forwards – Warren Foegele and Phil Di Giuseppe
If Warren Foegele or Phil Di Giuseppe instead claim a depth role from Martinook, either could potentially offer a little bit of scoring upside. But again, in a fourth line role with likely no power play time, it is likely not reasonable to expect a ton of upside.
The blue line
Dougie Hamilton (15 vs. 17 (for Calgary) in 2017-18)
Hamilton had a huge year with 17 goals in 2017-18 bettering the 12 and 13 goals that he had the previous two seasons. I am calling for a modest regression, but his 15 goals would still be a huge contribution from a defenseman.
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Jaccob Slavin (8 vs. 8 in 2017-18)
Slavin’s eight goals in 2017-18 were a good total when one considers that he received minimal power play ice time and scoring seven at even strength. Unless he becomes a fixture on the power play, I think eight goals is again a reasonable contribution given Slavin’s role.
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Calvin de Haan (3 vs. 1 (for New York Islanders) in 2017-18
De Haan’s primary role will be that of a defensive defenseman. As such, getting bogged down in whether he will score one or two or however many goals misses the point. If he helps solidify the top 4 defensively, he will improve the hockey team. But in totaling things up, I will figure him for three goals.
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Brett Pesce (5 vs. 3 in 2017-18)
A bit like de Haan and Slavin, goal scoring is not the best measure of Pesce’s effectiveness. That said, I continue to think that Pesce has modest upside even in a role with limited if any power play ice time. As such, I am counting him to take a small step up and score five goals in 2018-19.
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Trevor van Riemsdyk (5 vs. 3 in 2017-18)
Van Riemsdyk had a solid 2017-18 season in a third pairing role but a modest one offensively with only three goals. If Faulk is traded, I think van Riemsdyk could receive some power play ice time which could boost his scoring modestly.
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Haydn Fleury (1 goals vs. 0 in 2017-18)
When Fleury next scores an NHL goal, it will be his first. While I do think Fleury’s upside is somewhat limited offensively by his role and skill set, he is overdue to collect a goal or two during the 2018-19 season.
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Justin Faulk as a wild card
I did not include Faulk primarily because I still think he is likely to be traded. If he does return, I think he does boost goal scoring but not by the full 12-14 that I would project him scoring. Part of that gain would be offset by other defensemen receiving less power play ice time and therefore scoring a bit less.
Totaling it up and sanity checking it
If my late night math is correct, I have the Hurricanes scoring 248 goals which is a sizable increase over the 225 they scored in 2017-18 and well above the 237 for the 16th place cut line last year.
To be honest, I think this total is too high for a couple reasons.
In looking at the player by player totals, while I do think the Canes will get more from the fourth line in 2018-19 but because of reduced ice time and lack of power play time, the dozen-ish goals for Rask and Ferland is probably a bit high if they are truly in these roles.
The total also implicitly assumes that either the team stays healthy or if not that replacements can score at a similar pace.
Finally, the total counts on 28 goals from Jeff Skinner. If he is traded, the total most certainly decreases.
If I had to assess my own math, I would say that it is likely high by 10-15 goals.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of my estimates do you most disagree with?
2) If you had to back of the envelope it, how do you think the current roster fares compared to the 225 goals from 2017-18?
3) Which player(s) have the most upside?
Go Canes!
Overall, I think you are much less confident of the scoring potential of this team than I am. The combination of a new coaching staff and the positive culture that will create, the new players who are not crippled by the negative expectations of the old culture, and the grit bringing the freedom to score that grit brings and you will see these guys realize their potential.
The one player about whom I have no positive expectations is our boy Haydn Fleury. He had no goals last year and worse defensive play. I know. I know. His stats say different. But I have no faith in stats. Nor will I ever. What was to keep Ronnie from using his power to influence the stats reporting? He certainly had ample motivation.
So I will say that we have the best and most underrated lineup of scoring talent in the NHL. I intend to have fun watching them bloom.
Outside of the rookies, I think the biggest wildcards are McGinn and Ferland. McGinn was so very close to being a 20 goal scorer and I thought played with confidence in the offensive zone. I could see McGinn hitting something like 22 goals on the LW of Necas. I think 13 goals is more the floor for McGinn. I think you’re right on Ferland, it will depend what line he’s on and one of Ferland or Zykov will hit 20 goals if placed with Aho-TT.
While we did this calculation on a player by player basis, I think the net result is about right. I think our margin for error is about 20 goals less to 10 goals more. This is based on the current roster as it stands. If we trade Skinner, then my view is we would need to adjust the total down by 10 to 15 goals. The other large shift most likely could come from one or more of the youngsters (Zykov, Necas, Svechnikov, etc.) failing to have top six scoring figures.
Regarding powerless’ comments, I do agree with him that I am more optimistic about our scoring POTENTIAL than Matt may be. Regarding Fleury, while I think he performed better defensively than powerless does. Who knows what he will do this year and powerless has just as much chance being correct as I do. I am optimistic that he will prove to be at least a GOOD to VERY GOOD 3rd pairing type defenseman. It is my belief he will develop over time into a DeHaan type defenseman. Regarding darthcanes comments, I agree with the jist of his thinking. He has IMO correctly identified at least some of the players whose performance(s) could swing upward from what Matt has suggested.
With Dougie getting 1st PP numbers his goals should go up.
If de Haan takes over #1 PK on the left side, Slavin could be put in more offensively favorable situations.
everything else seems to be pretty close. Depending on the lines, Aho and Turbo could see a larger jump in goals. Having a more offensively skilled partner, those two could see an increase in scoring.
1) The one prediction I am most cautious on would be Necas. Very few players drafted outside the to 10 score double digit goals when they are 19. If Necas scores 10g/28a, then it is a great season.
I do think the TAZ line can score 75 goals. My hunch is Teravainen nets 20 (but increases his assists near 50). Zykov gets 22-23. So Aho gets 32-33. As others have mentioned, if Aho scores in October, he should easily break 30.
2) Even without Skinner, I think the goals go up because I think the power play is much better. Replacing Lindholm with Svechnikov on the 1st unit and adding Zykov and McGinn to the 2nd unit makes both more dangerous. Even losing Skinner is not a big issue on the power play as his scoring has only been average with the man advantage.
3) I agree with you and darth that McGinn is capable of 20+. I would really like to see him on the 2nd PP. I also think Pesce could score8-10 goals and would like to see him on the 2nd PP as well.
In a year or two, I can see Aho challenge 40 goals, Svechnikov challenge 30, with Zykov, TT, and perhaps McGinn all breaking 20. The goals are coming. My guess is 230-240 happens this year. By 2020 the Canes should be netting 260+.
I think I am more optimistic, in general, about goal-scoring than you are, Matt – and maybe some of the others, and even without Skinner in the fold.
In some cases it is by a matter of a few goals. But I think you are short-changing Staal and McGinn – I see improved offensive numbers from both this season, and Staal perhaps surprisingly to the upside. I go back to RBA’s comment early in his tenure as HC of wanting to improve Staal’s offensive production. I see that happening.
1) Which of my estimates do you most disagree with?
I think counting on Zykov to get many goals is a leap. I hope he can come in and produce 20 for sure! I have a hard time seeing where he will line up. I know everyone thinks he is just going to be penciled in on a Line with Aho and TT. I also would love Svech and Necas to both but up those numbers.. I think they can and potentially higher…
I think Jordan breaks 25 Goals this year.
You put Aho spot on IMO but his Assists will be up in the 45+
I think TT might break 30
2) If you had to back of the envelope it, how do you think the current roster fares compared to the 225 goals from 2017-18?
We will score more. I think significantly more.
3) Which player(s) have the most upside?
Man that’s the whole team! That’s what we are a team of, potential and upside. Lets see what this upside can do.
The lines that are put together in considering possible goals is interesting. I think there will be more changes but for now this is what the team looks like.
I agree with d-rob that I am puzzled by zykov. If Ferland plays with the Aho/TT line where does zykov fit? Skinner with Necas/Svech would be horrible in my opinion. I think if Skinner is on the team in October he will play on a Rask/Williams line. Would that leave Zykov with Necas/Svech? Three rookies on a line may not be the best plan.
I like Ferland with Aho/TT. He has speed, a good shot and has shown a tendency to take up for his teammates. Aho and TT are great but having some protection is needed. Zykov has skill but speed and grit have not been as obvious in his game.
The season is still two months away. I expect more changes to come. It is my thought that the Canes will be a better offensive team when the changes are complete. Dougie Hamilton is a Hurricane. I just like saying that from time to time.
Part of the concern of going Ferland with Aho and Terevainen is that you have now effectively downgraded what was a satisfactory-slightly below average first line last year in TSA. I think Ferland is better suited to go with the rookies as their protection.
this is fun… especially cause the numbers are big :)….
I’m not sure you can do a player by player count and then sum to get the totals. I think it may be more realistic (or just another way to have fun) would be to do it by lines. My reasoning is that the line can only get one goal at a time….they can get multiple points, but only one goal. So Aho, may be robbed of a goal because Zykov taps it in after pushing the defender into the stands 🙂 That will still be great, however that is one less goal for Aho.
The fact that line mates change makes it harder, but I think that would still be a fun exorcise… and what else do we have to do this summer!
I’m looking forward to all of your thought provoking responses!
I am concerned that Matt is vastly over estimating Fleury’s goal scoring for the season. 😉
His on ice performance last year does not warrant such optimistic predictions for his improved scoring this coming year. 😉
But it could be at least partly offset by one of the goalies putting one in this season, Ned did a great job scoring last year. He netted at least one.
Well done.
Wallmark isn’t even mentioned?
How little respect can you give him?
As the Checkers leading scorer last year, he should be a definite possibility to make the starting roster over some of these guys, IMO! By the way he led scoring in 45 GP vs Zykov’s 63 GP…and Foegele was 5th in scoring while playing 73!
I think Walmark got at least one NHL stint, perhaps the year before last, and only scored one goal in 7 or 8 games. Maybe that left the wrong first impression with the team, maybe he’s just a successful AHL player (Chris Terry and Zack Boychuk tore up the AHL scoring, but never made it at the NHL level).
The other reason is that Rask is basically occupying the available slot, though Walmark could well step in and provide center depth if one of Necas or Aho don’t work out at that position.
Great post and great comments!
There’s just one little thing that bothers me.
“Finally, the total counts on 28 goals from Jeff Skinner. If he is traded, the total most certainly decreases.”
Practically every other comment echos this in some way.
Remind me why everyone is so dead set on trading Jeff Skinner?
Who or what are we going to get in return that’s worth losing him?
I know, his contract is up next year so we need to trade him now while we still get value… how about we give him an extension before he goes out and explodes for forty goals this season?
He doesn’t play on the PP.
Last year he played for a coach who doesn’t like him and didn’t know how to use him.
He’s still only 26 years old.
He spent most of last year on the third line.
And he was still our second leading goal scorer.
Everybody, me included, loves Sebastian Aho, who had 29 goals last season.
Skinner had three fewer and we’re all dying to dump him for some depth defensive forward or something.
Seriously, I know resigning him will take big money and term, but somebody’s going to give it to him, and they’re probably not going to regret it.
I’m with Teddy KGB: “Pay the man he’s money.”
edbenson. I am on the fence about trading Skinner.
It does concern me that he consistently has more goals than assists. He doesn’t create a lot of offense for his line mates. One of the main points to be taken from this exercise is that the Hurricanes will have multiple dangerous scorers (Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov, Necas, perhaps Zykov and McGinn) as soon as this season. Skinner’s style may not help those young players develop to their potential.
On the other hand, Skinner can generate offense when the rest of the team is struggling. I think of how he single-handedly tied the second game of the season against Columbus. Of the players mentioned above, only Aho has shown anything like that ability (of course, Svechnikov may have it). Trading Skinner will leave a hole.
My take is that the team would likely be best if they could acquire a LW who could provide some defensive stability for Necas/Svechnikov this year and going forward. That is why I think trading Faulk prior to moving Skinner is likely. Names like Nugent-Hopkins and Saad have been mentioned. Unfortunately, I don’t think Faulk returns either of them.
Thinking realistically, one option I like is trying to trade Faulk to Toronto for Zach Hyman. Toronto needs a right-shot defenseman who can add to the power play. While Hyman doesn’t appear to be in the same category as RNH or Saad, he has proven to be a really solid winger playing with a young, offensively-minded center. He would immediately improve the Canes’ penalty kill (I think I am the most concerned about this of any of the C&C regulars). He plays a physical style, yet is a decent offensive complement. All that being said, I don’t know if Toronto would be willing to consider moving Hyman. If they would, then Faulk for Hyman and Pickard would be a trade worth making. That trade creates a second scoring line (Hyman/Necas/Svechnikov) with a reasonable chance of working out. It would also create a serious 3-way competition for the starting goalie job. Although at first glance Pickard appears to be another back-up who failed as a starting goalie, the 2016-17 Avalanche were such an underperforming team that his results as a starter might be misleading. In any event, having more chances at goalie success is a good thing.
Following such a trade, I would feel comfortable with trading Skinner. While none of the names mentioned have Skinner’s scoring upside, I can see the logic for trading him if another LW is onboard who can improve the team in other ways.
I watch a lot of Leafs games and I think that the Canes have got to try to get better value for Faulk than Hyman. He’s a decent player but whose to say a hard working guy with maybe a bit more skill like an Elias Lindholm couldn’t have doubled what Hyman produced playing with the elite players he has played with. He’s an elite forechecker , but not a good finisher or even playmaker really – and the Canes have a lot of forcheckers and lack finishers. Faulk as a defenseman has better goal scoring abilities than Hyman as a ‘top line’ forward.
You’re right Toronto doesn’t want to even part with him anyway because he’s cheap and a good complement to their skilled players. Not sure about Pickard don’t think he either holds a ton of value.
edbenson – you need to take that question up with Canes ownership and management, which has been vocal about trading Skinner and actively trying to do so since the end of the Canes’ season. The reasons may be culture and it may be contract – I have heard both. He is not part of the long-term plans for the Canes, it would seem. Even though Waddell and Dundon have both walked back earlier remarks, just today DeCock with the N&O said there may be movement even in the next couple of days. It is a question of what is.