With the oddly-timed draft and off-season only a few weeks ago, the NHL rumor mill is starting to churn out a good new of things to consider (or just as often discard quickly). Unlike in years past, the Hurricanes seem to get more than their fair share of turns these days. That change is driven in part by the team being more active since Tom Dundon took ownership of the team. The other factor is that in recent years the Hurricanes have been deep on the blue line which seemingly has the team linked to every other team that desperately needs help on defense.
In my article on August 24, I dubbed Brett Pesce ‘the key to the blue line‘, and I am already on record as not being eager to include Brett Pesce in any deal. It is not that he is untouchable, but I just think a legitimate top 2/top 4 defenseman in his prime and on a cap-friendly contract is more valuable than anything that could be added by trading sideways for a forward.
But Today’s Daily Cup of Joe focuses on a couple possible options to try to upgrade in net who have been or could be linked to the Hurricanes in the future and cheats a bit by leveraging Twitter comments to share my thoughts.
Frederik Andersen from the Toronto Maple Leafs
Recently, Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen made an early appearance in the trade rumor mill and the Carolina Hurricanes were even named as a team that could have interest.
I actually think that Andersen could be an interesting addition once you move past the unreasonable value for what some think he is worth in trade value. Andersen is 30 years and likely to be gunning for his last big contract when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after the 2020-21 season. Just in general I am not a big fan of taking on the last max contract for goalies who just crossed over the 30-year old mark. So I would not be a big fan of trading a bunch for Andersen and then inking him to a long, pricey extension upon arrival. Further, any trade that includes a top 4 defenseman like Pesce or Hamilton is a non-starter for a player scheduled to become a free agent in one year. So the contract and trade situation for Andersen are not overly favorable.
But in the same vein as Fleury below, I think Andersen is interesting as long as the trade cost is minimal. In a scenario where Toronto General Manager Kyle Dubas wants to move on, adds another goalie and then needs to trade Andersen just to dump salary, I would at least consider the option.
I like three things about Andersen if he comes for a modest trade cost. First, with only one year remaining on his contract, the risk is tiny. Very often even good goalies just struggle upon arrival. If that happens with Andersen, the Canes would just move on quickly next summer. But if he clicks, the Hurricanes would be in good position to re-sign him. Sure there is a risk that he leaves, but I think the risk of committing to five years sight unseen for a 30-year old netminder is a bigger risk. Second, I think there is a dice roll element with goalies such that sometimes things just work. Third and maybe most importantly, I think the potential is there that a change of scenery sees him find a significantly higher gear. Being relieved of the pressure of Toronto in itself could be a sizable difference-maker. And even more intriguing to me is the possibility that Andersen is being dragged down by the Maple Leafs roster that has been really light on legitimate top 4 defensemen and totes a lineup of forwards whose strength is scoring goals not strong two-way play. Is it possible that Andersen looks significantly better playing behind the Hurricanes blue line which is better and deeper? It is at least a possibility and an intriguing one at that.
Marc-Andre Fleury from the Vegas Golden Knights
Though I am not sure if an official announcement has come yet, the Golden Knights seem ready to ink Robin Lehner to a long-term deal for something in the neighborhood of $5 million per year. With Marc-Andre Fleury already signed for the next two years at $7 million per year, the team will have $12 million committed to the goalie situation. One would figure that making a long-term commitment to Lehner who is six years younger also means that Fleury hits the trade block.
I said the following on Twitter:
1/2 Had this during #VegasBorn/#Canucks series a week ago…
With Vegas signing Lehner for 5 years, Fleury becomes interesting option for @Canes. https://t.co/wfVUOjJA1H
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) September 11, 2020
2/2 Fleury's contract is relatively low risk with only 2-year term and $7M fits for 2020-21. Challenge is making $7M work for 2021-22 which would include new contracts for Svechnikov and Hamilton.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) September 11, 2020
3/2 Would consider him…I am not a fan of going big in free agent market with goalie for 5-6 years at $5-7 million per year.
No guarantees, but I like risk/reward trade-off for only 2 years that Fleury could be an upgrade.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) September 11, 2020
Fleury is coming off a ‘meh’ 2019-20 season and is 35 years old, so there is a legitimate debate to be had about whether he is even an upgrade for sure. But as I noted in the Twitter posts, the two-year term minimizes risk, and I do think there is an element of rolling the dice a bit with goalies hoping to find a winner.
I put Fleury a bit in the same category as Anderesen in that I would not win even a modest bidding war to win his services, but if he becomes available for virtually nothing as a salary cap dump and the Hurricanes can send a little bit of salary back the other way, he is an interesting short-term play. The Hurricanes have some cap space for 2020-21, but the $7 million owed to Fleury for 2021-22 would be tougher to take with new contracts for Andrei Svechnikov and Dougie Hamilton due then.
Patience is in order
I am on record as saying that Mrazek and Reimer are good enough especially with Alex Nedeljkovic also in the mix as a young wild card. So the Hurricanes do not have to make a move in net to be a good hockey team for the 2020-21 season.
Further, if the Hurricanes do want to try to upgrade in net, there are enough options available this summer that I might just make this into a couple-day series. With that being the case, opportunistic and patient is probably a better way to go that assertive and in a hurry.
While I would consider goalie options, I would not budget much in trade assets and would not be eager to sign an older goalie to a max deal. With the flat salary cap and a few unrestricted free agent goalies, the best play might be to be opportunistic and buy late and low like the Hurricanes did with Petr Mrazek a few years back.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you think of Frederik Andersen if he becomes available for a modest trade price? Do you also find intriguing the possibility that he has been weighed down by Toronto pressure and a weak defense in front of him?
2) If Waddell can make the salary cap math work, would you take a shot on two years of Marc-Andre Fleury post 35 years old? Or is his time up?
Go Canes!
Biggest question for me is how much of an upgrade would a goalie be over the current duo of Mrazek and Reimer?
Anderson would be a slight upgrade, but it’s not so big of a jump that it would be worth much risk. For all of the Canes D depth, don’t they also give up some of highest rates of high danger shots?
Too much risk on the Fleury side, in age and contract.
For me, the biggest wild card with Andersen is whether he is better than he looks in Toronto.
The Leafs blue line is sub-par, and they have a set of scoring-leaning set of forwards who are average or worse in terms of two-way play.
Also, the pressure and weight of Toronto could easily be a negative over time.
Is it possible that Andersen looks much better in front of Canes’ better defense and with a bit less pressure.
Andersen, as is, is decent anyway, but the Holy Grail is if he arrives and gets 1 or both of those bumps up in level of play.
Matt, what about the King? There are rumors of the Rangers buying out the last year of Henrik’s contract and/or trading him (they have a solid duo in net and it seems like they’ve moved on)
They might be willing to trade him and retain most of his salary or take Skjei back or, better yet, Gardner.
I see no reason to rush out and spend money on goaltending.
We saw repeatedly in the playoffs that goaltenders came from out of nowhere to steal games (e.g. the Cannucks duo), whereas big names (Fleury/Lundkvist) failed to deliver.
I think the Canes are set in net and should not move on from what they got unless they get a quality young goalie with long-term potential.
It’s well known across the league that teams’ internal budgets are typically lower than the cap so I do not see an incentive to upgrade on salary except for addressing a key weakness, and goaltending is not the Canes’ biggest weakness.
In fact, it looks like the league, prior to Covid-19 was running at over a billion dollar shortfall. With the virus teams are getting so desperate that they are asking coaches to willingly take on salary cuts. The Bruins apparently are the team where players and coaches are coming together to realize savings to keep the team going, let that set an example for other teams.
I think there are big problems on the horizon for the sport, mostly driven by the massive, unjustified and unsustainable inflation of player contracts, which are not justified by their performance or the league revenue.
I hope that players and owners will come together for the good of the sport and the good of the fans who pay money to keep it going.
Lundqvist is on my list for what will be multiple articles on the goalie series. (It’s the off-season; there is not a lot of new news this time of year.)
My best guess is that Lundqvist is in slow decline and not an upgrade. That same argument could be made for Fleury, though I am more optimistic that he has 1 more short bounce left.
I do not find either of these options particularly appealing. I like both Andersen and Fleury as goalies but I’m not sure that either really provides that much additional upside for the added expense, and the reported trade-ask on Andersen borders on ridiculous. Should one or the other team retain salary, well, that’s another matter …
If we get the same level of goalie play next year that we got this year, particularly in calendar-year 2020, we’ll be fine. Just look at DAL; who would have thought Khudobin would be a leading Conn Smythe candidate?
We have bigger fish to fry.