Last week, I trekked through three articles detailing three rounds of big decisions for the Carolina Hurricanes during the off-season.
The first article had the goalie position as the Canes big off-season decision #1.
The second article had the blue line as the Canes big off-season decision #2.
And finally, the third article highlighted the forward group as big off-season decision #3.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers a couple significant wild cards that might or might not come into play during the upcoming off-season.
Justin Williams and the captaincy
Justin Williams’ role in a significant step one of the Hurricanes transformation was unmistakable. The combination of Rod Brind’Amour as head coach and Justin Williams as first lieutenant had an immediate and profound impact. The hard-charging effort-fueled style appeared from the very beginning when the team overwhelmed opponents in preseason and into the first few games of the regular season. There were growing pains over the rest of the first half of the season, but the new mentality again rose up above the fray when the team started showing a resilient nature to bounce back from losses at about the beginning of January.
After pouring all he had into the 2018-19 season, successfully putting the team on a new track, achieving playoff success and finishing up his current contract at the age of 37, it would not be unreasonable for Williams to ride off into the sunset having made a huge contribution to the next era of Hurricanes hockey. No doubt, his play and production for the 2018-19 season suggest he has more in the tank, but whether he exercises that option is a personal decision.
From my vantage point, I greatly hope that Williams signs on for another season. As much as I like the current trajectory of the team coming out of the 2019-20 season, I think one more season with Williams wearing the ‘C’ would help cement the foundation. One season does not a rebound make. The team needs to follow it up, so now with some pressure that was not so much there before the 2018-19 season, I much prefer to have Williams leading the way when the team hits some patches of adversity. Further, I am not sure that the timing is right for the transition to the next captain. My leaning is that the next captain will come from the younger group that includes players like Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin and maybe another player or two, and I think another season and a slightly longer bridge to this transition would be ideal. If Williams did retire (or I guess theoretically sign elsewhere), would the team go back to Staal or Faulk as the captain short-term? Or would that situation just expedite the transition to someone like Aho or Slavin?
My wild guess is that Justin Williams returns on a one-year contract. This might sound odd, but I actually say that because his family is invested in the team. This is personal opinion and reading tea leaves, but my read is that his kids and wife will vote for one more season at which point it will be easy for him to rest and recharge over the summer and be ready to give it a go (at least) one more time.
Sebastian Aho’s next contract
One nearly foregone conclusion is that the Hurricanes will ink young star Sebastian Aho to a long-term deal for the 2019-20 season. The big question is how much the salary will be. With an 83-point season, Aho seemed to play his way up into the tier just below the McDavids and Matthews of the world. That tier could price out above $10 million per year. On the other hand, his point per game pace and good but not great playoffs maybe pull his salary down just a bit. With other players already on team-friendly contracts and a current top salary of only $6 million per year, could Aho’s next deal come in at a discount $8 million-ish yearly salary? The probability of anything but Aho signing a really long-term deal to play for the Hurricanes is as close to zero as you can get, but the exact terms of the deal are still a bit of a wild card.
Mike Vellucci
He has had an incredible run in Charlotte and looks to be absolutely perfect for that role. The issue is that excelling at the AHL level eventually makes a coach a candidate for roles at the NHL level. He would not seem to yet be a regular candidate for head coaching roles at the NHL level, but anything is possible. But Vellucci’s agent could definitely stir up options for an assistant role at the NHL level that gets him within range of an NHL head coaching role. Best for the Hurricanes organization would be if Vellucci continues to excel at the AHL level for another year or two with so many Canes prospects developing there. But if another team comes calling, would the Hurricanes offer Vellucci an NHL assistant role to keep him in the fold? If so, who would the team hire to replace him at the NHL level.
The front part of the 2019 NHL Draft
With the Hurricanes pushing to the Eastern Conference Finals, the team’s own draft slot fell to #27. The result is that the Hurricanes now have four draft picks in the range of 32 picks starting with the late first-round pick. There is nothing wrong with continuing to stock a prospect pool that has risen to be among the NHL’s best. But it can also be hard to find that many players in a short draft range with which the team is enamored. Couple that with the potential desire to add a difference-maker to the current mix, and the pile of second round draft picks could become a trade asset. Or alternatively, if the Hurricanes do not trade any of the second-round picks for roster players, the potential exists for the Hurricanes to trade down a bit with a pick or two to spread out the draft picks and add even more prospects to the organization.
A completely different vibe starting the 2019-20 season
On the one hand, the 2019-20 Hurricanes should benefit from the team experiencing what it takes to push over the hump and into the playoffs. On the other hand, the team will enter the 2019-20 season with new expectations and a completely different kind of pressure. Based on the success in the playoffs, one could easily just chart the trend line higher and assume away any risk for the 2019-20 season. That incorrectly ignores the reality in the NHL where each year teams surprise but also each year teams that seem to be trending upwards regress.
The aim here is not to paint a picture of doom and gloom but rather to balance the picture and recognize challenges for the 2019-20 season.
–Injuries: Both Calvin de Haan and Trevor van Riemsdyk have injuries and recoveries that put into question their readiness for the start of the 2019-20 season. At least considering the current roster, the team is a defense injury away from trying to make a go with a depleted blue line at the beginning of the season.
–The goalie position: It is not even clear what the goalie tandem will look like yet. Worth noting is that Petr Mrazek started slowly in 2018-19 and Alex Nedeljkovic has exactly one NHL start under his belt. That combination could make for an interesting transition into the 2019-20 season.
–New pressure: The new pressure to at least make the playoffs will be brand new for most of these players. If and when the team hits a stumbling block or two, the team will need to be challenged in a different way.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think Justin Williams will return? If he does not, what direction would you go with the captaincy?
2) What is your best guess for term and salary for Sebastian Aho’s new contract?
3) Is anyone else fearful that Mike Vellucci’s success with the Checkers will quickly put his name in the mix for other jobs such that the Canes might need to change his role to keep him?
4) With newfound pressure to make the playoffs and a couple potential beginning of season head winds, what risk do you think there is that the team regresses?
Go Canes!
1) Willy back for one more season is a commitment that he should be comfortable with
2) enough for Aho to be set for life
3) it is possible this year but more likely he will have to show some staying power
4) 42% chance of the canes regressing. Because we all know the answer is 42.
I don’t think staying power is the issue for Vellucci – he has 15 years of experience as a head coach (juniors and AHL) and 15 years of making the playoffs. He is a head coach who knows how to win.
1. I think Justin Williams returns for a year – with the reason being “unfinished business”. By the time the team was in the playoffs it wasn’t just about the playoffs but about being the best. An ECF loss isn’t good ebough. He comes back one more year to try to lead the team to a cup. If we win the cup he retires. If we don’t then it will depend on the type of year the team has, but I think he will retire as well.
2. I think he signs for a “team-friendly” $8M (+/-$0.2M). His fall-off in production at the end of the season was, apparently, related to an injury and should not impact his value. He actually could sign higher with the thought that the cap will be higher when it is time to re-up Svech but I don’t think that will happen.
3. Vellucci’s situation is different. He, of course, is a Karmanos man, having coached the Plymouth Whalers for a number of years and is in the organization as a result. How does he get along with the new regime – what is his level of job satisfaction? He is more than an AHL coach – he is also an assistant GM for the Canes. That provides money and decision-making responsibilities that both AHL head coaches and NHL assistant coaches don’t get. I also don’t think he has ever been an assistant coach – he has always been “the man”. I admit I am something of a fan-boy but I think he might be the most NHL-ready AHL head coach and I would not be surprised if an NHL team doesn’t pick him for that position (particularly a team with a youth focus). Stranger things have happened (the decidedly NHL-unready Kirk Muller as one).
4. Remember how poor the team started in 2018-19?? I am not sure a slow start would necessarily be a regression. The question will be how hungry the players remain after acheiving the level of success they did this season. We (abnd the Blues too) showed last season that slow starts do not a season make.
1) I do think Williams returns. Could be one-year or two years with the salary front-loaded so in 20-21 Williams could be a healthy scratch/extra assistant. Aho is the clear choice following Williams.
2) 8 years/8.3M per year.
3) I am concerned that Vellucci won’t be around. That might be his choice, but I also think the organization might not want to pay the market value of his next contract.
4) The D will actually be in flux for the first 20 games or so. I think Bean will be an excellent performer, but not sure how he will play out of the gate. The most likely scenario is tons of minutes for the top 4. And that presume that Faulk is still on the team. Then there is the fact that Hamilton is a slow starter–I know he was injured this season but his production has been low for 7 seasons in Oct-Dec.
Given the D questions and the goalie questions, I expect the team will be fighting for a wild-card up until the last game or two. Not really regression, but not a big step forward.
I am convinced that THE issue to be resolved is the re-signing of Michael Ferland. I believe it is a battle between the traditionalists and the statistical analytics people. Ferland is a rare bird indeed. He can skate with the best of them and score. Yet, he can and is willing to play the heaviest of games. That means he can hit like a runaway trail while being a feared fighter. The importance of such a player is apparent to anyone who has ever played the game. Only he can keep the Tom Wilsons and Brad Marchands away from Aho, TT and Willy. Traditionalists know this to be true. They know that he has to be retained. He is worth paying whatever he wants. He is the necessary insurance needed to keep players like Aho, TT and Willy healthy.
The anti-heavy hockey snobs cannot see this in their all-important stats. Too bad.
Let me predict that both Willy and the Seabass as well as maybe others are holding out re-signing to see if management either signs Ferland or a suitable replacement. And by suitable replacement, I don’t mean Niedereiter or Bishop or Manelainen.
I am certain that neither Willy nor the Seabass want to wind up like Jeff Skinner did.
1. Williams played with intense ‘fire in the belly’ all year and carried a huge load, and that adrenaline probably gave him some extra speed to his game just to keep pace on the top two lines. That said, his skating is regressing and I doubt the team pays him $4mil. Even if the team makes an extended playoff run next year, I doubt Williams is the key cog to such. In the end, I think this is Aho’s time, and ultimately his team. He will be a young captain, but a fine one. Staal and Faulk-or-Slavin will be perfect alternates.
2. My gut feeling says Aho signs for 11mil x 5yrs. It’s a shorter term than team probably desires, but the salary Aho likely wants while providing him time to prove he can be the 1C long-term.
3. Not sure how Velluci follows up this season by staying in CLT, so I think he moves on while he can. Always the chance he gets promoted to run the power play for Rod (whether from up high or bench side)? He would be a great conduit for more CLT players cracking the NHL lineup, but still think he finds his way elsewhere.
4. Flip a coin. The team can easily regress just as they can build upon their success. There will definitely be 3-4 new players to the group, perhaps more with goaltending in question. The quicker we move on from last year the better IMO, and with that, the good news is our core is young and battle tested, as opposed to 2009.
I also think Aho will sign a shorter deal, 5(UFA) or 2 years(RFA with Arb), usually that is for less. Unless teams start making offers to other teams RFAs because then who knows what would happen.
Agree on Ferland, also trading with TML for Kadri. He was getting a lot of criticism after this PO for getting suspended. Also TML is in salary cap hell. Players like Ferland and Kadri are valuable but often miss games. So having two ‘heavy’ players is a good idea.
It could take too much to get that done. the canes are still a very young team, so the may be patient.
Just not too patient.
Runaway train not runaway trail.
If Ferland can regain his season form he is a great signing at double his current salary.
If his body is all used up and he plays like the Ferland we saw in the playoffs, he’s not worth resigning.
Only peple who know all about his health can make an educated guess as to which Ferland will show up. There is no doubt which Ferland he wants to be, the guy that plays with a belly full of bile and fury, just hope he’s got the body for another couple of years.
We do not want a Lucic type contract on our team. Lucic was great but he’s wel past his prime and his contract is an expensive noose around the collective necks of the Oilers.
We already have Martinook who plays a somewhat similar role. Fogele did some stepping up in the playoffs and wasn’t afraid to throw his weight around. Gauthier has some fighting in him, he’s got the body for it, though he is not a prototypical power forward, so the Canes have options.
Maybe explore a trade with Tor, something like Hamilton or Faulk + Fleury + first round pick + one of the bottom 6 players for Nylander and Kadri.
I think Willie will sign on for one more year, and I’d like him to, just make sure he’s not pencilled in as a a top 6 forward, more of a third line guy with scoring and leadership that can step up as needed.
Ideally Aho can be convinced to sign for a team friendly salary (whether it is 7.5 or 8 or 8.5 mill, he’s not going to starve ever again in his lifetime, even if he quit after 1 year). I’m still hoping to see a player step up and take a home friendly contract in return for the team bringing in the missing pieces to go all in and win the cup.
I doubt I’ll ever see that happening, the agents are paid based on the player’s salary, and I think the difference between 500 and 600 grand a year is a heck of a lot more significant than difference between being paid 5 or 6 million, so the agents will always push for maximum salary, and we’re all selfish and unnecessarily greedy bunch of creatures, that’s just humanity.
1. I think Justin will be back but I wouldn’t be that surprised if he skated off into the sunset either. People sometimes forget he has had quite a few major injuries during his career and the older you get, the more painful and difficult it is to stay in peak playing shape/frame of mind. It’s gotta be a struggle and at almost 40 yrs. old, he’s thinking about his long term health as much as the short term goal of winning hockey games. I’d say it’s 60/40 leaning another year but we’ll see.
2. His replacement is the most difficult decision the head coach will have to make. My guess is if Williams retires, the new captain gets named late summer before training camp opens. The new guy will need to put his stamp on the team early enough to provide leadership going into camp, not after camp has started. My pick is Jordan Staal. Probably no one in the room has more respect from teamates and would be a fairly seamless transition from one veteran to another. Aho and the rest of the young guns aren’t quite there yet.
3. 5 years 10 million.
4. Coaches come and go. Good coaches come and go. Bad coaches come and go. If he gets offers from other teams to be an assistant or even head coach, then he’s gone. What is Raleigh going to do, offer him an assistant coaches job knowing that in all likelihood it may be another 3 or more years before the head coaching job opens up? I don’t think Rod will “make room” for him just to help his career. If he feels he’s an upgrade to a current assistant it may happen but if it isn’t an upgrade in Rod’s mind, then goodbye.
5. There will likely be an unrealistic expectation that the Canes should get to the Cup finals. Unfortunately, that’s the way it works with fans and particularly part time fans. As always, the start of the season is critical and they have to maintain playoff position throughout the year, not just the last couple of months. The goalie situation to me is still extremely hazy. I’m not sold on Mzarek being a true, #1 stud goalie. He had a really, really good season but he’s shown glimpses of that type of play before, only to regress. I’d like to see a move to obtain a more known quantity, although the pickings are awfully slim regarding available free agents. May have to be a trade scenario.
1) willie needs a rest but I just do not think he feels done yet. Gut feel says he comes back for another year. I am pretty sure this will be the place he retires from. Do not see him going to another team. He has unfinished business yet and still has that competitive drive.
2) IMO, 8 yrs, 8M.
3) it could be, he is assistant GM here too. Tough call. Is assistant NHL coach (guessing he would not be offered head NHL coach) better then head AHL coach plus assistant GM? He may like where he is already at. He would be qualified but not sure he makes that move.
4) Still young plus got a taste. They may not make the east coast finals again (hard to do) but I do not think I see too much regression. Other teams may play them tougher but pretty much same guys who will only get better and the same driving coach.