If you are catching up, this is part 3 in a series leading up to the trade deadline. You can catch up on parts 1 and 2 here:
Part 2: Considering the categories looked at the types of trades possible at the deadline.
With things just beginning to warm up, our 2018 NHL trade deadline series on the Hurricanes pushes forward into part 3 which will identify the team’s needs.
Deja vu and maybe a second try
A good trade is not simply the addition of a good player. Rather, a good trade is one that finds a good player with a match for what the team needs. At the very front end (entry #1 out of what eventually became 20+) of last summer I mostly wrote today’s article in a pair of articles both posted on May 31. The first was entitled, “Identifying the needs and shopping list”, and the second was entitled, “Remembering the needs and mostly avoiding the shiny stuff,”
In that second article, I wrote:
The next step is to add a player who can make a difference offensively. This is not a good checking line center. This is not a speedy, forechecking wing with ‘meh’ hands and finishing ability. And it is not a lot of other things that include good players. The need is fairly specific, and if one focuses on the need instead of all varieties of shiny stuff on the overstocked shelves this summer, the sorting process becomes easier and the targets clearer.
That is just as meaningful today as it was in early June. The Hurricanes depth at the forward position has improved over the past couple years, such that the team can reasonably fill 9 forward slots with players capable of at least depth scoring. The team does not need another complementary type of player capable of 45 points or possibly a bit more if he plays with an elite offensive player who makes his line mates more productive.
Rather, the Hurricanes desperately need that elite offensive player (or as close as they can get) who makes his line mates more productive.
During the summer, I regularly used the terms “catalyst” and “difference-maker” in an attempt to differentiate what the team needed from a long list of good players who just did not fill the team’s need. The team’s big addition during the summer was Justin Williams. To be clear, Justin Williams is a good player. He makes the Carolina Hurricanes better with his two-way play, his veteran presence and leadership. And the Carolina Hurricanes are very much a better team with Williams than without him. But that said, given that the team was to make only one big addition at forward, Williams did not directly address the team’s need for one more offensive catalyst ideally at the center position. Williams netted 24 goals in 2016-17 on a Capitals team that was an offensive juggernaut. As such, perhaps it should not be a surprise that his goal total (current pace is 13-14) with the Hurricanes is less despite the fact that he is actually on target for a slightly higher point total.
In addition, the depth forwards that Francis added along with Williams (Kruger and Jooris) were both by track record more checking line forwards who were destined to be light on scoring.
So perhaps not surprisingly with a forward addition who was not the pure catalyst who was needed and only checking type additions otherwise the Hurricanes are currently 26th in the NHL in scoring which is a few notches below the 20th that the team finished in 2016-17.
Adjusting the needs for the 2018 NHL trade deadline
So the same applies to the 2018 NHL trade deadline. The Carolina Hurricanes are reasonably well stocked on capable complementary depth scoring forwards with more on the way from the AHL. Over the the coming days any number of names of good players who are more of that will be bandied around. Just because a player is a decent player does not mean he helps the Hurricanes. A decent 47ish-point depth scorer who bumps Lee Stempniak and his 42ish points out of the lineup does not significantly move the needle.
As I see it, the Hurricanes need one of two things:
1) A playmaking type center with the ability to play on and help drive a scoring line and help the two wings on his line push above depth scoring totals and hit a higher level.
or
2) A finisher with 30+ goal capability who is a notch or two higher than the Hurricanes growing collection of players mostly with 18-25 goal ceilings. The latter is a variation from my focus during the offseason that was more narrowly focused on adding a center who could be a catalyst. The reason is because it is looking increasingly possible that the Hurricanes might be able to pull the playmaking center that they need from within in the form of Sebastian Aho or Martin Necas. If the team does try to go that route (maybe not until 2018-19), it will be important to provide support for the transition ideally in the form of a top-tier veteran scoring wing or two who have experience playing on top-notch NHL scoring lines.
“Avoiding the shiny stuff”
Over the next few days a few dozen names will be bandied around as possible trade targets for the Hurricanes. My starting points is NOT assessing whether a player is a good player or not. Rather, my starting point is assessing whether they fit what in my opinion is the Hurricanes’ needs.
The challenge but not impossibility of the marketplace
The challenge is scarcity and cost. There are not enough top-notch playmaking centers or 30+ goal scoring wings such that every team can simply have however many they need. As such, the price to add such a player is high. But that is not to say that the task is impossible. The upstart New Jersey Devils are where they are now at least in part because they were able to add a legitimate first line scorer in Taylor Hall. Similarly, the Nashville Predators are led at the center position by Ryan Johansen who was obtained via trade. The Islanders who are among the league’s best offensively and are in a dog fight with the Hurricanes for a playoff spot added Jordan Eberle who has 20 goals. The Stars have 21 goals from Alexander Radulov who they somehow stole out of Montreal last summer.
The current trade deadline sees a number of players names who might fit the bill floating around right now, and most are not even rentals whose contract expires at the end of the 2017-18 season.
So saying that there are not enough to go around and that the costs will be high is not the same as saying that such a deal is not possible. The list above proves that it is.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Am I too narrow in my requirements for the kind of player that the Hurricanes need to add? Or do you agree that such pinpoint focus is required to get the help that is needed?
2) Of the forwards alleged to be available, which do you think meet my requirements or are otherwise worth pursuing?
Go Canes!
1. Great points, Matt. I think we need more than a catalyst. More importantly, we need a culture change. Too many non-playoff/bubble years under the same core (Skinner, Staal, Faulk, Ward)…and we can soon add Rask/Lindholm to this list. The fat lady has yet to sing this year, but for whatever reason our young guys with promise hit a wall like the rest of our veteran group. And every time we get in playoff position we are quickly ousted. In my opinion, hockey teams are like families. The young feed off motivation and the actions of the experienced. Our current leadership core is overwhelmed and a bit mopey. Our younger players see this and in turn they become the same.
We need a leadership change that involves sending one or more of the current core out. The return would likely net us the player(s) we need to change the attitude, grit and demeanor of this team into a contender. Sure, it may seem silly trading Skinner or Staal for someone else producing the same…but in reality you’re showing the young group the style of play necessary to “win”. That in itself goes well beyond what any player produces on the stat sheet.
2. Pac, Gallagher, Kane, O’Reilly, Domi…these guys do whatever it takes.
I think live_free might be on to something (though I think identifying two players on the Sabres as “guys do whatever it takes” is hyperbole). However, I am not sure sending the players he names will bring back a playmaking-center or 30-point finisher.
Pacioretty is the only player who seems truly available that fits that formula. Rumor is that Montreal wants a roster player (preferably a defenseman), a prospect, and a pick.
Carolina is actually in the position to surpass those demands. I don’t think most folks are going to like the deal, but talk is cheap while action requires parting with valuable things.
The Canes should offer Slavin, Gauthier, and their 2018 first rounder for Pacioretty and Montreal’s 2018 first rounder (only protected if it ends up being #1–not 2 or 3).
I love Slavin as much as most, but this season seems to be indicating that he is going to be a good shutdown d-man, not a perennial Norris contender. Matt mentioned how Eberle, Hall, and Johansen have moved their teams forward. But another way to look at the playoff race (at least in the East) is to admit that Gostisbehere and Provorov are largely responsible for Philadelphia being in great shape, while in New Jersey, Butcher has been as important since game 1 as Hall. If we are honest, in Carolina, Slavin has not been an offensive catalyst. Hanifin might still get there and Bean could be as soon as next season, so it doesn’t make sense to trade them given how important a high-scoring D-man seems to be. So that leaves Slavin, who appears to be a $5 million 35-point D-man.
If, and I realize it is a big if, Montreal would make the trade as outlined, then the Canes would likely end up with a pick in 2018 around 6-8. Given the depth of this draft, that could end up being another high-end offensive forward (Wahlstrom) or a D-man with elite offensive potential (Bouchard or Dobson).
To obtain a near-elite player in a trade requires giving up a top talent. I don’t like it any more than most, but my guess is this proposal is much closer to reality than others I would prefer.
There’s no way we trade Slavin. I agree that it’s going to be painful to get Patches or someone equivalent but we can’t go that far. Slavin’s contract for the next 7 years is an absolute steal for what he brings to the table. Sure he doesn’t add a ton offensively but you can’t just discount his ability to shut down elite players; specifically his play against McDavid and Crosby this year. Add to that what a genuinely good kid he is and how involved in the community he and his wife are and I think he’s the future face of the franchise. Plus I will cry if Slavin goes so there’s that…
I think you’re on the right track though. Throw in anyone but Slavin, Aho, and Necas, plus Gauthier, plus another lesser roster player (Rask, Ryan, Stemps), and the first round swap and see what happens.
Glad that struck a nerve. My post was written with the hard-hearted attitude we usually see in the business world. Really good people get let go and management says “it’s not personal, just business.”
Now I think that position is short-sighted. So while it is important for the Canes to make the playoffs, the question is what are they working toward. Because if the answer is to be true Cup contenders for several years, then this trade deadline looks different. If the answer is make the playoffs now, then Slavin is a valuable trade asset that must be available.
I have always been optimistic and patient but I am willing to be coldly objective— at least in the comment section.
I’m firmly in the perennial playoff team camp as I feel many here are; obviously not including puckgod. Sure, I would love to see the Canes in the playoffs this year; but with our goaltending issues and lack of consistency we aren’t even close to being contenders and I don’t want to trade away our future just to get knocked out in the first or second round.
If a reasonable deal presents itself then go for it but let’s not throw away the last 4 years of a rebuild out of frustration.
If Dundon wasn’t in the picture I don’t see us doing much of anything at the deadline other than moving Ryan and/or Stemps for some picks and room to throw some prospects into the lineup on a more regular basis. I think Dundon is itching to make a splash though; maybe it comes before Monday or maybe in the offseason but I strongly feel that something is coming. It will probably hurt at first I just hope it doesn’t hurt like losing Slavin would.
I agree that obtaining a high-end player is going to be painful and I’m willing to sacrafice, but that’s way too much for Patches. He’s good, but he’s not that player to me.
I think you are generally on point, Matt, but there just aren’t that many players that fit that description available, now or ever. Most of the teams that acquire that type of player swap a promising D-man (Hall-Larsson, Josanson-Jones, etc.). I can’t recall someone signing a player like that as a UFA that actually worked out.
I like RNH the best. Great player, decent contract, plenty of term left, EDM needs help on the blue line, and maybe a cap casualty there. I’d like to keep Pesce and Slavin, but I’d offer anyone else up in a deal/package for him.
live_free, if you really want to shake things up, then how about Skinner for Patches or Skinner for Hoffman?
I agree. I think RNH would be our best reasonable option right now; followed by ROR.
Patches or Hoffman would only really address our issue if the plan is to move Aho to center or Necas is ready to go next year. If that isn’t the plan then I think the ask for them will be too high.
To switch directions slightly does anyone have any opinions on Aaron Dell? I’ve seen his name creep up the trade bait list some. He’s certainly not without risk with only 44 NHL games so far but he’s sitting at a .917 this year in 24 games. No way he’d be any worse than Darling at this point.
Making a goalie move now would definitely harm any hopes we could have of Darling rebounding but I just don’t think we can risk another year of the same with Ward/Darling. Maybe we can bribe Chicago into taking him back with the Crawford situation or just buy him out and move on. I don’t see a way we are going to pick-up someone like Raanta and unless Ned or Booth is ready to make the jump I don’t know what else we could do.
Saw a post somewhere where it was mentioned that we just need to start churning through goalies until we find something that sticks. Seems almost reasonable at this point… Thoughts?
I do not believe that we should make any goalkeeper moves now. There are no assets out there worth what we would have to pay for them. Besides, I believe that the goalkeepers we have are not as bad as they are described here. They are taking a lot of heat when much of that heat should be placed where it belongs;incompetent and lazy play by certain forwards as well as defensemen. There are several reasons for Ronnie not making moves right now. And if we are honest with ourselves, we don’t have a clue of what those reasons are. Do we trust Ronnie? I do.
dmiller…Skinner for Hoffman or Pacioretty would certainly be a ‘yes’ in my book. Hoffman certainly has the grit and scoring we could use. Pacioretty has the leadership and scoring. Either would be win-win.
I wouldn’t trade Slavin, Pesce, Aho, or Necas. But for someone like Hoffman or Pacioetty, I would do a good Hockey trade with one or more of the rest.
I agree with you Matt. Think we have the playmaking center (maybe 2) in Aho and, maybe Necas. We clearly lack finishers and that becomes more painfully obvious everytime we have large SOG advantages, but can’t score.
I think part of “the plan” involves trading one of our D at some point for that scorer. Not sure which one, but we won’t and shouldn’t keep all of them. With Bean on the way and McKeown looking like a 5/6 Dman, we need to deal from a position of strength to fill our weakness.
Of the names being thrown about, Patches best fits, but there may be others RF is looking at that nobody is discussing. Don’t think Hoffman is the answer. He reminds me of Skinner, can score but his D play negates that offense.
Agree with live_free and ctcaniac that we need a culture change. Not sure if its a youth issue, or something deeper, but guys are not willing to do the dirty stuff necessary to win. To me its why we get close to grabbing the playoff spot, but falter when the intensity increases. The last 3 losses were to teams that seemed to want it more than us. Adding 1 player doesn’t change that at all
If you are going to trade from Strength then I would suggest one of the D-men. I would favor Faulk over the others because I think he has reached his potential whereas the others still have room to grow. You could package him and maybe an AHL person to get one of the forwards mentioned above (Patches, RN-H or Hoffman).
Rumors of a 3 team trade: NYR, Toronto, and the Canes. Mc Donagh going to the Leads, Nash to us. No other info yet. Hmmmm. Via Eklund. Says he has heard this from 5 different sources.
Eklund is not exactly what I would refer to as a credible source. Why would we want Nash…?
To get a top scoring forward the only assets we have are defensemen IMO. If we are going to give up one of our top 5 defensemen it needs to be to get a Pacioretty level player IMO. Otherwise, wait to the offseason and see how things shake out then.