With big news last night and discussion already underway here, I am going to skip the regular Thursday Coffee Shop entry and just add a few polls here (at the bottom) to go with the discussion already underway.
On Wednesday night at about 8pm or in the middle of the night session of day 2 of the ACC Tourney as it is know in these parts, the Carolina Hurricanes announced that Ron Francis had been relieved of his duties as General Manager of the team.
Despite getting a late start, my aim is to cover most of the many layers of detail on this announcement.
The timing
I feel like I could write a 10-page academic paper of halfway reasonable quality on the timing of this announcement by itself. There is the public relations angle of burying this information at an odd time for a reason. There is customer relations angle of creating a diversion and/or throwing a bone on a day when there was mutiny among the core fan base about season ticket renewal emails that somehow (who approved this?) were sent out the day after arguably the worst loss of the season the night before. There is the symbolism of anything Hurricanes happening in March when the entire cadre of local media are off at the ACC tourney which ironically is being held in a northern hockey market. I think the biting irony of some of the angles of this in itself are absolutely stunning commentary on the state of Carolina Hurricanes hockey right now.
But I will steer clear of any attempt to make a deep academic exercise out of this and stick to the basics. The roughly 8pm announcement in the form of a terse press release with no media availability for Ron Francis or Tom Dundon immediately catches attention. There are multiple explanations and we might never know the rationale, but most obvious is a combination of two things. First is that the team intentionally buried it right in the middle of the ACC Tourney week because it really did not not want to talk about it and/or have it covered in any depth. Second is that there is at least a possibility that Tuesday’s debilitating 6-2 loss that pushes the 2017 to the brink of death expedited at least one of the decisions that new owner Tom Dundon has sitting before him as the team nears the offseason. Making matters even more interesting is that the announcement fell at the end of a day when the team inexplicably decided to send season ticket member renewal emails out to a group of core fans who were no doubt going to be incredibly salty about Canes hockey the day after what I termed ‘capitulation day’ that very likely ushered out any 2017-18 playoff hopes. Though the timing is interesting, the notion that the team fired a long-time hero and current general manager as a scapegoat and/or diversion to quell the social media mutiny over the renewal notices is too far-fetched to be the case.
Among the many decisions, many personnel-related, to be made by Tom Dundon in the coming months a decision on Ron Francis’ role is the one that actually makes sense for early March. With the trade deadline in the past, there is not a ton for the general manager to do right now, but what could be an eventful offseason should kick off in earnest in early April and be a sprint from there straight through mid-July. By making this move now, Dundon has the ability to openly pursue a replacement without trying to do it in stealth mode and at least potentially could have a new general manager in place before or shortly after the offseason starts.
What exactly was announced
The press release is brief and to the point, but does include a few important details. Francis was being relieved of his general manager duties but would be staying on as President of Hockey Operations. Significantly, the new general manager once named would report directly to Tom Dundon. Dundon was quoted as saying, “I felt that a change in direction is needed when it comes to hockey personnel decisions.”
I covered this fairly succinctly on Twitter shortly after the move was announced:
5/? Shift by Francis to different role is logical function of his stature with team that spans two decades and many more roles than most-recent GM. I hope it is a sincere attempt to keep Francis with the team and that it works.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) March 8, 2018
Personally, I vote narrowly against Francis’ demotion today, but I understand the merit for this move too. That said, I think the Carolina Hurricanes organization is better with Ron Francis than without him, and I hope that his placement in another role is a sincere attempt to keep him in the mix and that it works.
I do not make too much of the change in the organizational chart. As long as Dundon remains hands on with the team, the general manager is a role of enough importance that whoever has this title was going to be working pretty directly for Dundon regardless of titles or how lines were drawn on an org chart. I guess the move does pretty clearly cut Francis out of the chain of command in that regard, but I am not sure it is really that surprising or noteworthy.
My 2 cents on the move
At a basic level, I vote against this move, but worth noting is that this is a 55/45 thing not a 90/10 thing.
It might sound conflicted (because it is), but barring a late-season miracle, I would rate Francis’ performance specifically for the 2017-18 season as poor (my scale generally does not go below a C and I give him a C+). But at the same time, I would invest one more year in Francis with a bit of fairly firm direction added. The short version of what I wrote after the trade deadline is that I do not think Francis so much missed at the trade deadline when good deals are hard to find, but I do think he failed in the offseason in two key regards. First is that he whiffed on his choice for a goalie upgrade. Second is that he passed (probably because of cost) on addressing previous season scoring woes. So 2017-18 performance aside, two things would still have led me to bring Francis back for one more sink or swim year. First is that I think Francis’ hands were likely tied to some degree because of budget and other issues pre-ownership transition. Second is very simply because even with its flaws that have risen to the forefront, I think Francis’ methodical, rational and long-term strategic approach to building a successful team is much more right than wrong conceptually.
I would have brought him back and had him walk through a process of identifying the team’s key weaknesses for 2017-18, identifying potential alternatives to address these shortcomings, pushing him to do that and giving him some budget for it for the offseason and then grading the outcome pretty simply based on results. Some might say that this is deja vu, but I think the key difference from last summer to this summer is a shift toward making playoffs a true priority and also allocating budget and/or assets to make it a reality.
Tea leaves and the other shoe
Most interesting going forward is trying to ascertain exactly what this first move represents on a couple levels. Is this a vote for Peters over Francis? A few of Peters’ sound bites leading up to the trade deadline suggested there was at least a possibility that the two did not see eye to eye in terms of personnel. Is this more simply an individual evaluation for Francis that was addressed a bit early per my comments above because of the need to have a general manager who is a going concern in place early in the offseason? Could this be just the beginning of a broader house cleaning that possibly includes Peters and maybe key players as Dundon looks to purge and start fresh? Does it say anything about Dundon’s desire/intention to become more involved on the hockey side of the business?
We might never know all of the details of Dundon’s intentions in this direction, but the moves that follow in the coming months will at a minimum narrow the range of possibilities for the original decision to demote Francis and narrow the options for the path forward.
The need to do something to jolt the system
While I leaned toward giving Francis a bit more runway, I do see value in this move at a 50,000-foot level. As I noted on Twitter shortly after the move was announced:
8/8 SOMETHING needed to happen to jolt @NHLCanes system. I think there is fair debate to be had about this versus other options, but it's something. #Redvolution #Canes
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) March 8, 2018
At the most basic level, I think the team is broken right now. I also think that part of the path forward needed to be some kind of shock or jolt that rocks the entire system. Though there were other options to accomplish the same and a potential debated about which was the right/best way to do so, Wednesday’s move does qualify as needed jolt to the system.
An early start to what could be tumultuous offseason
Wow! Guess what could be a tumultuous offseason across the board from hockey side to business side to players to everything else just kicked off early. https://t.co/46pzdP7ut7
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) March 8, 2018
With an introduction that regularly used the word “impatience” and an obvious hands on approach since buying the team, the summer is set to a tumultuous one with changes in all areas of the organization. My original expectation was that the hockey operations side would most be left alone, but obviously that has been proven wrong already. I would expect more in terms of players and possibly personnel on that side of the house, but bigger than that might be what happens on the business side of the house once the season ends and there is a gap that does require staff to carry out the constant roll of day to day activities around the busy NHL schedule. If nothing else, the offseason should be an interesting one.
My biggest fear
While it is clearly a double-edged sword, one of the things I appreciate most about Ron Francis was his rational and methodical approach to building a team. I had grown increasingly concerned that Francis just did not have it in him to pull off the handful of deals needed here and there to address specific needs that are the difference between playoffs or no playoffs. The downside is perhaps lacking this all-important skill set put Francis’ ceiling as a general manager at average and limited his potential to build a true Cup contender. But at the same time, some of the craziness going on with teams right now makes me feel incredibly confident that Francis had virtually no chance of being among the worst general managers. Those slots are reserved for wheeler-dealers who are heavy on random deals and irrational player evaluations. Put another way, I had become increasingly concerned about how low Francis’ ceiling as a general manager might be, but from the exact same set of observations, I had become increasingly convinced that his floor was reasonably high.
To be clear, there are no clear indications at this time that we should be concerned, but Dundon’s move to remove Francis from the general manager role combined with his hands on involvement in many areas at least raises the possibility that Dundon will prove to be the type of owners who is too involved in some parts of the team without consideration for what his skill set and qualifications are for certain things.
All it takes for me to feel much better in this regard is for Dundon to make a solid choice for a new general manager and then back away from that part of the business. Those two actions in succession would represent a strong sign that Francis’ removal from the general manager role was very simple a personnel evaluation based on results and not at all an indication that Dundon might be angling toward a more hands on role in terms of player personnel decisions at a micro level.
I have a couple more things related to Wednesday’s big announcement but will save them for another time.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Do you agree with the move to strip Ron Francis of general manager responsibilities? What are your thoughts on Wednesday’s move?
2) What, if any, other big changes do you anticipate between now and the start of the 2018-19 season?
3) Is anyone else at least cautiously concerned about this move suggesting increased involvement by owner Tom Dundon in player personnel decisions down at the micro level?
4) Anything else on Wednesday’s big news?
Polls
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Go Canes!
1. I vote opposite you (in favor of the move) but by a similar 55 to 45 margin. I think the timing was necessitates by the collapse of the team lately, climaxing in Tuesday’s epic implode (fastst 4 goals that the Wild have ever scored). The owner must convince season ticket holders that he cares about the quality of the product, and convince them to go back, and this was a drastic decisions that signaled those intensions without leaving the team in disarray (the players are safe for the season and replacing the coach now could turn out to be a lot of trouble).
RF is not the worst manager in the league, oh no precious.
I am at a loss to explain how the Oilers, despite owning the top draft picks of the last 6 or 7 years, have not been able to put it together and are even below the Canes in the standings with huge long-term contracts making recovery ner impossible (MacDavid is a generational talent, but he cannot replace an entire team). The islanders bloggers have been calling for Garth Snow’s head for years now.
2. I think at minimum Don Wandell won’t be with the team come next year. I suspect Tom will bring in some of his business associates to implement his idea of how this team should be run. I have no idea about BP, we will see soon enough I’m sure.
3. There are concerns certainly. Some owners, like Pegula in Buffalo, have tended to get very hands on and success remains elusive. But, on the other hand, the Canes have very little to lose. Soon to reach a decade of no playoff appearance, with no high profile superstar on the team, constant miring in the most frustrating of territories (right outside the playoffs), and an owner whose sole ambition seemed to be to get rid of the team, the picture was getting awfully troublesome before Tom took over. If he finds a general manager with the right balance of patience and risk taking, and provides him with the resources needed to retool the team, this change of ownership could turn out great.
4. I am curious to see whether a GM candidate has already been identified (in which case we will hear more news soon).
Breezy, Very good writeup IMO. You saved me a lot of bloviating.
I don’t see Francis staying on past the end of the season. An owner like Dundon is tough to work with in any scenario, but it doesn’t get easier after you’ve been fired. I see him making a fairly quiet, but graceful exit once the season ends. I don’t think Francis was necessarily a bad general manager and he in fact, it is likely to play out that the future success of the Canes will be attributed at least in some part to his steady and conservative strategy during his tenure when building through the draft was imperative. However, this is a new era and with that, comes change. If he was going to be let go, then the timing is perfect to provide enough time to conduct a search, hire a new GM and get them in place and prepared prior to the draft. No question Dundon will micromanage or at a minimum, have more input than the previous owner into personnel decisions. It remains to be seen whether this will be good or bad, typically it isn’t the greatest of scenarios. I envision a fairly large splash in the off season. Some players undoubtedly have been identified or labeled as ineffective and will be jettisoned in a move or moves to bring in new blood and break up the group of underachievers. My guess is Peters goes as well for the same reasons Francis was let go. He was good for the time period he was brought in to instill systems, bring along a group of real young players and improve the overall play of the team. Now it’s time for the new regime that will reflect more of the owner’s personality and objectives. It’s just the way it goes.
I will just share my first two thoughts.
Brind’Amour will be the next to be moved. TD will let BP bring in someone of his choosing for the rest of his “audition” to stay.
Pat Verbeek. I’ve read that Yzerman is ok with teams approaching PV about GM roles. He’s Asst GM for a very successful team in Tampa, played on the Whalers, and is a former Detroit alum with BP.
I agree with you Matt. I like what RF has done. RF just fell in love with his prospects too much. It was obvious we needed a couple players but he just wouldn’t pull the trigger. I am excited to see what happens this offseason and nervous at same time. One thing for sure is more changes are coming. Tom D wants to win I am on board
1. I 100% agree with stripping RF of the GM duties. I had commented after the trade deadline that RF’s failure to make a deal could lead to his downfall. Owner TD gave him the green light (and probably inferred that he expected deals) and nothing was done; this inactivity was the final nail in the coffin and clearly illustrated a clash in styles and philosophy. Yes the argument can be made that deals were too expensive, but more importantly this is also a business and the failure to make a deal sent the wrong message to the team, the coach and most importantly to the fans.
2. I anticipate many more major changes. It is not surprising that TD is starting at the top. I think BP is safe for now; he played the hand he was dealt and IMO has overall done a pretty good job – remember we have by far the lowest payroll in the league (except for Arizona and look where they are). I would expect the new GM will be more in line with a Rutherford-style and will be much less risk-averse. We went from one end of the spectrum (Rutherford) to the other (RF). It can be endlessly argued which style is more effective but I expect the new GM will take a more-balanced approach.
3. I am very encouraged by this development and not concerned in the least. Our players should take heed; failure is not an option and many more player changes are probable. Demoting RF and replacing him with an astute deal-maker is a major step in the right direction and signals an exciting new course.
Totally agree blinkman
1. Agree with the move. Accountability starts at the top, and this move makes sense given the team circumstances. GMRF drafted reasonably well, improved Charlotte as a result, but did not improve the NHL roster using the assets he could have. You also want a new GM in place well before draft day in order to align with your scouting department and be settled with the team office. The timing is perfect in this regard.
2. Naming a new GM in the next few days/week would be wise. Would not be surprised if one is already lined up as Dundon has had time to talk to sources. I would expect said GM to utilize the analytics as necessary, but to be able to draw the line and make hockey moves based on the eye test (things not picked up in analytics such as player demeanor, effort, chemistry, etc.). It appears GMRF couldn’t separate from analytics, and so we need someone who can utilize what is provided, expand analytics in the right areas, yet be confident in making a deal based on actual hockey results.
3. No concern at all with Dundon’s move. We can’t have accountability on players and not the management. This is fair game per the on-ice results.
4. My guess is to expect a GM with previous experience in the front office, but not too big of a headliner as Dundon will want someone to work with (not against). Keep an eye in Pat Verbeek, Dave Tippett types.
3. This is the biggest issue for me. And I will make a few points–which may cause others some concern. But this needs to be said.
A. Activist owners are almost always a bad idea–look at how successful Snyder’s Redskins have been. I guess some could point to Steinbrenner in the 80s and 90s. But I think the on-field success was counterbalanced by the general crappiness of everything else.
B. There was much made of Dundon’s relationship and admiration for Mark Cuban. The Mavericks have won exactly one championship and are really bad this year. As far as Cuban’s management ability–have folks been paying attention? Do an internet such and see how admirable his organization has been the past 10 years.
C. Dundon’s business record–complete failure in a business with some similarities to hockey (restaurants compete directly with each other and with other businesses that request that consumers spend their disposable income), then huge monetary success in a business that was termed “predatory” by consumer advocates and paid almost $10 million in fines for its treatment of those who SERVE our country. If you have to abuse people to win hockey games, how many of us want a winner?
D. Where is the accountability on the owner. So many fans think he is smart and competitive, when any contemplation on his history would suggest that he is the poster child for several of the Seven Deadly Sins. Is this what we as Canes’ fans and as a society have come to?
E. I am ambivalent about the demotion of Ron Francis. There is a case to be made that it is time for a change. There is also a strong case that Francis has this organization within a step or two of long-term success. Sometimes change can be good. But my concern–in case I wasn’t clear–is that we Caniacs are not admitting that what happened yesterday is a classic example of Dunning-Kruger. Francis may be too conservative or too enamored of his own strategy. I can consider that argument. If the owner hires someone with Francis’ deep knowledge of hockey and listens, then I will admit I am wrong (or pay whatever fine Matt levies and agree to no admission of any wrongdoing).
F. I am still a huge fan. I think Aho/Pesce/Teravainen/et. al. are hugely talented and I want to watch them win.
ct, usually I think you make good arguments for your views even id I might have disagreed with some of them. I think you negativity about TD, no matter how valid your comments may or may not be about TD’s prior history, misses or at least ignores the big problem. The big problem is the Canes presented a lack luster mediocre product for 9 or 10 years. We had an owner who was never involved with the operations other than to approve or disapprove of monetary expenditures and who ultimately just wanted to jettison his ownership. We were fortunate enough to get a new owner who wants to keep the team based in Raleigh. He appears to want to be more hands on in the day-to-day operations and appears to be willing to spend the necessary dollars to improve the team. TD bought into a mess so even if his management style stinks we will be no worse off IMO other than being one or two years older and out a few bucks. Let’s not pre-judge TD. Let’s judge him based upon his and the team’s performance.
CT, your comments are always excellent. I do see the possibility you raise. I think TD is making necessary changes. I think he will have his finger on things but I also believe he will let the new GM do his job. He will just be accountable for it.
We are both huge fans. Anything like this has risks. I happen to think it is the right move. Let’s hope it turns out well.
1. I agree with the move. I saw this season as Bill and Ron’s “show me” season. And apart from the Scott darling pickup, GMRF didn’t make any moves(if for no other reason than we have 49 of our 50 contract slots filled).
2. I see the Canes willing to spend money on Free Agent Day ,and make some trades at the Draft. Depending on who gets to be the next GM, and the teams’ performance down the stretch, we may be looking at new people behind the bench come September.
3. Not as concerned as I would be under some hands on owners. Dundon’s business background suggests he’ll at least learn the business
4. It was reported that Francis was considering resigning the GM position. If so, this might have been timed to give Dundon the maximum amount of time to find a GM before the off season when a GFM’s work really begins.
I am not surprised Francis is gone. New owner wants his own man, and there are plenty of negatives to point out in the organization Francis has been running. Unlike most, I am not overly critical of the trades Francis has made or not made. Bad trades kill a team for a long time. My concerns around Francis and the organization has been the drafting. Since Francis has taken over the depth of the organization has improved, but the results of first round picks has been poor. Fleury and Hanifin are with the Canes, but have huge holes in their games. Jury is still out on both. The Bean and Gauthier picks look bad, while Necas is promising. Not good enough to build a winner.
Dundon becoming a hands on owner is concerning. Like someone said, it rarely works. Look at the Buffalo Sabers. Total disaster, but the owner will make trades, spend money and is pro Buffalo! Be careful what you wish for. That could be the Canes in a year or two if Dundon doesn’t hire good people and let them do their jobs.
Peters and staff are likely gone. A new GM will want his own people. Peters raised the level of play of the team in his first season, but it has flat lined since. He had his chance. Time for another coach to see if he can reach this team and get a consistent effort.
Jake Bean looks bad? According to who? He continues to put up big numbers offensively and has improved defensively in major junior hockey. All reports have been pretty great surrounding him. Gauthier is 20 years old and playing in the AHL a year earlier than most do due to his birthday. Fleury and Hanifin I agree have had plenty of tough moments, more than you’d like, but are learning one of the hardest positions, that takes much longer to develop at than forward, on the job in the NHL at age what… 20 and 22?
Each player develops differently, and as young players it is too early to make any kind of judgement on Hanifin or even more so Fleury.
That said, though it is repeated all the time, I do not really buy the “defensemen take time” thing.
Elite players today have often been working with high-end coaches, skating coaches, nutritionists, etc. and training to be a professional hockey player for 3-4 years when they are drafted. Because of that, many are physically and development-wise in a position to be NHL-ready much faster.
Aaron Ekblad stepped straight into a top 4/top 2 role. From Hanifin’s draft Provorov and Werenski were playing top 4 minutes in their 2nd year. From Bean’s draft, McAvoy and Chychrun are already top 4/top 2 players. Not all, but many elite players today are only 1-2 years away from being capable at a high level. That does not mean that they will improve, but at least for players who are destined to be elite, it is not often a slow journey. Most (again not all) either have it or don’t.
My judgement on Bean is based upon watching him play in rookie camp, training camp and World Juniors. He looks like Ryan Murphy with a couple inches on him. Defensemen running around all over the ice putting up points is not how you play in the NHL. Doesn’t work. I am not impressed with his defense. That’s one of the issues drafting defensemen from the CHL. If they aren’t ready for the big club they are stuck playing against youth hockey players until they are 20. Adds up to bad habits. Bean has a ton to learn and the clock is ticking. Not impressed and a potential bust as a high first round pick.
Gauthier is a first round pick. When a first round pick struggles in the AHL it’s a bad sign. The warnings signs were there in juniors. All goals, few assists.
It’s a young man’s game today. Waiting for players, including defensemen, is less the norm these days. Look at Pesce and Slavin. They were ready.
1. I agree with the move. His two big wins during his time here was the trade that brought Turbo and the drafting of Aho. That is about it for feather in cap type moves. He hasnt drafted well in the 1st round. Fleury (I like Fleury BTW) has been passed by 2 forwards (Nylander and Ehlers), Hanifin is off and on but passed by Werenski and Rantanen. Bean and Gauthier are looking like busts.
His moves have been ‘meh’ as well.
Good-Williams, UFA; Turbo trade
Solid- Stempniak
Neutral- Nordy trade, TVR trade, Jooris
Bad- Kruger trade, McClement UFA, Wanting more than Hall for Faulk and missing out, not making a big move last draft
Fire-ably Bad- Darling trade & signing, Lack ditto, “we like our group”
I was a big fan of GMRF despite poor moves and ‘meh’ 1st round drafting until the “we like our group” garbage.
2. Waddell, gone
BP on notice- the new GM gives you a year. If we aren’t safely in the playoffs, you are out
I’d expect at least 2 big roster moves
3. we have no idea if TD wants to be more involved with his players “i.e have a relationship with” or being involved with player movement. My assumption is the later since he said he doesn’t know hockey. And based on how bad the Mavericks are, TD should learn from his buddy what not to do.
4. I’d bet TD did his homework and found out from a few “in the know” that plenty of GM movement was going to happen. He didn’t want to miss out on his top 1 or 2. I’d bet he already had 2 people in mind before making the move and knew they would be highly sought after in the off season.
1. I agree with the move. I still respect Ron Francis as a class individual and hope he stays with the franchise to hopefully see the fruits of his laying the groundwork for our future success.
2. I expect to see a new GM AND A NEW COACH. The 3rd and 4th lines will be rebuilt entirely and there will be at least one big name free agent signing and at least one big trade involving us shipping sending one or more of our previous untouchables (includes Slavin, Faulk, Lindholm, Pesce, and Hanifin but precludes Aho, Staal,and Teravainen).
3. I am not concerned. I have noting to lose other than the cost of buying some season tickets. Things could not get any worse than what they are now. We are not competitive. Ron Francis has rebuilt our prospect pool and has infused some excellent players onto the NHL squad. He is moving to another job because he did not do enough, not because he did nothing. I do not know what constraints RF worked under with PK as the owner so I can’t really judge how much responsibility he has for not doing enough. I do know the new owner has no constraints imposed on him other than those he chooses to operate under. That being the case, I can take an optimistic view on his actions and turn into a harsh critic only if the Canes on the ice do not improve drastically. In other words, I don’t care how he does it, I am only concerned with the result being a top notch competitive NHL hockey team that is worth paying to go see.
4. Anything else? All of the contributors above have submitted comments that are worth reading and taking note of. Even when being critical, they try to be fair and not vindictive. They show that despite the gloomy past and current year prospects on the ice, the contributors all have as their main concern the drastic improvement in the on ice performance.
1. I was surprised initially. But as I thought about it I think now that Dundon revealed his thoughts on the team. It is not a performance issue, which would be a coaching change and personnel upgrades for which he has the money. I think he has swung – after giving the team time to show them what they – to making broader changes. He will hire a GM before he finds a new coach because most GMs want their own coach. Plus Peters only has one year on his contract, I think, making him a lame-duck as it is.
Of course, it may just be a personality between two very different men and styles.
2. Unless Dundon is buying into Peters, I expect he will be gone after the season. I think there will be a wholesale change on the business side, with Waddell gone.
Going back to the Cuban model, although he bought the team when Nowitzki was a rookie (and that is a plus) in his second year, half the team was traded. I expect there will be a lot of obsolete jerseys hanging in people’s closets by the end of the summer.
3. I am definitely a bit concerned. Dundon has gotten into the minute details of The Eye layout as well as possible logo changes. But I think he will leave the business of hockey to a hockey guy, although he will be much more interactive than Karmanos. Cuban relied on basketball minds to run/coach the team – and even kept Donnie Nelson in as coach. So a concern, but a hope not.
4. I think the direction for the Canes may be entirely different than anyone anticipated and that a lot of thoughts and words will be proven moot. Big changes ahead and I will not want to guess too many of them.
Really good thoughtful comments by all. A change of this nature can always have different opinions. I think breezy said exactly what I feel. It was music to my ears when TD said he was impatient. I like RF and he is a character guy. The problem has been, as so many have said here, we do not know his restrictions but he never made any of the big moves which needed to be made. No 1C, the goalie situation has been a disaster. The comment was made earlier that he was 2 for 5 in what he did in last off season. Our first round picks have not turned into what look like good moves. There have been obviously some good moves, Turbo, Aho, possibly Necas, but slow and methodical. That is a contracting style with impatient. The new owner wants a winner and to get the fan base motivated again. He is making the changes to make a difference. That is what successful business people do, make changes when something is not working.
I do kind of believe RF had the green light at the trade deadline and when he did not pull the trigger. TD probably felt he had a GM who was ineffective. Just my opinion. I have often wondered if RF just did not have the negotiating capability to do a big deal. We have never seen it. Just picking up loose change when other teams had financial problems.
I saw the comment about Snyder and the redskins. It could happen but we have not been trending upward and we refused to even try our AHL guys out to see if they can be NHLers. I was ready for a change. You never know what the result will be until they play out but I believe it was the right decision.
It also create accountability. Something which has not existed in this organization. Now everybody knows, coaches and players, that under achievers are at risk. I am happy with this move.
My guess is that RF wanted less to do with the day to day and personnel decisions. I also think that RF’s goal was to build up a prospect pool and value of a franchise that he is a part owner in. I think he far exceeded that goal… Franchise was sold for top $ and the prospects pool is the best its ever been. All of that increased the value and now he can go back to a more relaxed role.
His drafts were of value positions and solid players with lower ceilings but higher floors. A strategy for building value.
If RF stays with the Canes long term I think this was the plan the whole time.. (get the team value up so it would entice a new owner and get more $ then a franchise with a depleted prospect pool.) if RF leaves this summer then it’s the case of the new owner removing the old guard and we will see a facelift.
I cant see BP staying after the season. I think he is a good coach and will have success in the league, I just don’t see him surviving the offseason.
I see changes coming… but not as many as the rest of you. I think a few trades.. probably 1 that’s a bigger deal. I see us spending to much in FA on a player or 2… Spoiler.. it wont be JT although I wouldn’t be surprised if TD makes a pitch.
Any business owner has a vision for what it takes for his business to succeed. TD is no different and has been thoroughly evaluating the organization on and off the ice from before he purchased the team. He’s spent a lot of time with various personnel and players. He has come to the conclusion, and has been quoted as saying, the organization is broken and needs to be fixed. On the hockey side, he has likely discussed his vision with RF for success and determined that RF could not carry out the vision and they were not on the same page. Its been rumored that they didn’t see eye-to-eye. Right or wrong, RF had to be replaced. On the business side, Don Waddell will likely be gone as well for the same reasons. TD will then put in place a team that can execute his vision.
Whatever we all think of the details, there is no question this organization needs a major shake up. Missing the playoffs for 9 years in a row and the likelihood that a 10th year was a possibility is not acceptable for any successful organization. The Canes do poorly in the community and are not successful as a business. No way you can keep the existing plan in place.
SO we shall see whether TD can right the ship and make things work. As fans, it can’t get much worse than its been and I am hopeful that it will get much better. RF will deserve some credit for any success that follows. He built from nothing, but has not been aggressive enough for TD.
Quote from TD – “said Dundon… “There are a lot of good people working in the organization, but I feel that a change in direction is needed when it comes to hockey personnel decisions.” That is a pretty clear message. Get ready for a wild ride this summer. It will be very interesting to see how the players respond tonight. My hope is that they will play inspired hockey. Fear of the unknown for players could be a powerful motivator.
yah, “hockey personnel decisions” should put a lot of players on notice. The effort level will be interesting to watch.
My first thought was (and mainly still is) this is a bad move. I thought what RF would do in the off season would show if his plan would work or not. That said, I also see that this move is the biggest shake up with the least cost. Not much to do GM wise for awhile and doing this now will get a new person in place. This is easier than firing the coach… and this could still wake up the players and we could still reach the playoffs.
My biggest fear is TD is going to want to take over as the GM. Yes, he must be smart, he is a billionaire… however, I think that logic follows the line of RF is smart because he is a Hall of Famer… (good and bad points in each). I hope I am wrong but I see this as a Jerry Jones or Mark Cuban move…. again, I hope I’m wrong.
So I was an obvious pessimist in my earlier comment (having a 35-foot tree fall across your driveway will do that, though I discovered I have a talent for tree removal!).
One thing I didn’t say that I should have is that Francis ran a classy front office. One move epitomizes that this season. Calling up Saarela. He was with the Canes for 2-3 days during a period when there were no games in either Raleigh or Charlotte. It was during the WJC-20, so Kuokkanen was not in Charlotte. It also happened to be the week Saarela turned 21.
There is really no explanation other than Francis (or someone in his circle) thought it would be good for a young man several thousand miles away from home to be with two countrymen who speak his native language. It didn’t help the team and I find it unrealistic to argue that one or two practices with the big club changed Saarela’s development.
The club did it because it was the right thing to do given the situation. That makes me feel good about being a Caniac.
It is common for many who have wanted change for so long, that when change actually occurs they think the worst (is it too much change, what else will happen, look what happened to those teams in other sports with similar owners, is this right?).
I manage people for a living. One of my biggest challenges is getting people to face change. After all, change can be scary. Change takes away the known and brings forth assumptions (some true, some far fetched). But one thing is for sure, change is inevitable. And change is needed from front office to scouting to the arena experience. We are too stale w/no backbone, we all know it. Dundon is a successful businessman who will strive to provide that backbone, uphold accountability and freshen up all aspects. We are long overdue for this.
I am thankful for Ron Francis, especially growing up a Whalers fan and seeing the job he did in this rebuild. That said, I am raring to see the next levels of change.
The problem with RF’s slow and patient approach is that he took over the reigns when the Canes were already 5 years removed from their last playoff appearance and with the fanbase growing impatient.
His “build for tomorrow” approach would have been given an additional year or two if he had started earlier.
I’m not saying that approach would have worked, but it would have had an extended chance.
Of course people, myself included, are wondering what will happen next, but, as most of us feel, the franchise can hardly get much worse than it is right now, so we have very little to lose (other than the franchise itself) by having a new owner that wants to shake things up. At least that new owner has money and has committed to giving the team another 7 years in Raleigh.
I”d give Wandell the lowest grade of the management staff quite frankly, I think his handling of community relations has been extremely poor, so I definitely expect him to go.
Rod has not done well with the powerplay, though it has been rounding into form lately so he may get an extended look based on that.
But the key to the coaching staff will be who is brought in as the next GM.
Every experienced GM has a group of people they have worked with or like to work with, and they are likely to want to bring at least some of those people with them.
Don’t understand how Rod gets criticized about the powerplay. The team can’t score 5 on 5. Why would they be better on the PP? When you have players like Rask, Ryan and Lindholm on your PP what do you expect? These guys are all 3rd/4th liners on good teams.
I marginally supported the change. Not because of any particular failure but because I do think the Canes are stuck in a mediocre malaise and that further big changes are coming and necessary. However, while its tough to argue GMRF wasn’t a big gambler regarding player trades, I do think he was more aggressive than most give him credit for in other GM areas. He essentially bet his entire job on a bold move to acquire Darling’s rights and sign him long term. He acted quickly and decisively. That’s not the move of an ultra cautious GM. Ultimately, I believe that if Darling was more than Lack with a big red beard, RF would still be GM.
Who has a short list for a possible new GM?
I see a few names already sprinkled into the conversation above. I have just started to turn to figuring out the options for the role.
Pat Verbeek, Julien Brisebois, Dean Lombardi. Live_free had mentioned Dave Tippett.
Some names I’ve seen floating around that I don’t necessarily agree with or know enough about: Ken Holland, Chuck Fletcher, Norm MacIver, Kyle Dubas.
1/ I didn’t lose any sleep over it last night, but I am a little sad because I actually think that GMRF used the right process to move the team he inherited, which was a complete mess, quite a distance forward and deserved at least one shot at being an aggressive buyer, something he didn’t seem to have under PK. I also think we wouldn’t be having this conversation if Skinner, Faulk, Rask, Kruger, and Darling – some of highest-paid players – had played equal to their salaries.
There is one question that I hope gets answered after this season: how did the decision to name two co-captains get made and who made it? That turned out to be maybe the most questionable decision of all and got the season started on a very awkward note.
No question though, this team needed a jolt and it got one. There shouldn’t be anyone in the organization who now believes they are beyond scrutiny. This is likely to be just the beginning.
2/ I expect there to be turnover behind the bench, on the ice, and in the executive suite. It should not be a surprise that a new owner, especially a younger owner without another full-time gig, would want to sink his teeth in quickly and aggressively. The only real question was one of timing. From my experience, the best time to make a personnel change is as soon as you can after you recognize you have an issue; to TD’s credit as a manager, that seems to be what he did.
3/ The results of hands-on owners is mixed. Having said that, we’ve seen the results from the disengaged owner over the last few years and that may be even worse. Change is good if uncomfortable especially when it follows a long period of under-performance.
4/ Depending on where we land in the draft-order, this might be the year to package that Round 1 pick in a package for an offensive difference-maker. The pipeline of prospects probably needs thinning and that’d be a great way of making a big change in one fell swoop. EDM, STL, CGY, CHI, MTL, OTT, and BUF are going to be just as motivated to shake things up and all have nice potential targets. I wouldn’t be surprised if any player other than Aho were traded.
Targeting a GM is tough. One would think Dundon wants a guy he meshes well with, or has some prior rapport even if it was on the golf course. That’s why I think there may be ties to someone via Dallas (near Dundon’s home) or Hartford based on some current connections. This leads me to think Pat Verbeek and/or Dave Tippett combo.
Mike Futa is also certainly worth a look. He was a key part of the Kings draft success the last decade. If BP doesn’t work out maybe we are then able to lure in Sutter to coach in the East?
How about Pat Verbeek for GM? He has witnessed a big rebuild in Tampa Bay. Need a rebuild in the scouting department as well, IMO.
My first thought was Verbeek and I would definitely be happy with that move.
It’s hard to tell from the timing how much was an impatient TD vs how much was a well timed move to secure a GM and form a plan forward. The former scares me for the future and the latter still seems a little trigger happy. I’m on record here saying that staying out with this team was a the worst move Francis could make at the trade deadline and mostly stand by that, but seeing how much Tatar went for assuaged my ire a bit. Can you tell I voted undecided yet?
Professional sports is fickle. I felt very sad for Ron Francis yesterday. In my opinion he inherited a largely talentless, directionless, identity-less, and prospect-less team from Jim Rutherford. Sure a few of the prospects JR drafted ended up turning out great but at the time Francis took over it was too early to see that. He truly had a mess to deal with and without the luck of drafting inside the top 3 ever he assembled the most potent AHL roster and prospect depth chart the organization has ever had. Furthermore he navigated the cap solidly, if not hundreds of times better than his predecessor and has set the team up contractually moving forward to be in a very good position.
We will never know whether his lack of pulling off those moves the team needed was for his lack of ability as a GM/lack of cajones to pull the trigger or if there was never a fair enough offer. In my opinion the next GM is going to have a relatively easy road ahead as Ron Francis has done the majority of the hard work. My fear is that the new GM will come in under a mandate to sling money at the cap and in the future the team loses its Necas, Ahos, Terevainens, Hanifins, etc because they sink stupid money into free agents. That is one thing I always had confidence Ron Francis would not do – pay Andrew Ladd, David Backes, TJ Oshie, Kyle Okposo, Frans Neilson, Loui Eriksson to backbreaking deals (and the least goes on).
I can stomach this if Tom Dundon sat there with other hockey experts and looked at a list of deals that Francis could have taken but did NOT take and said – wow the team would be better today if he had done that one… I can only hope this was the case. IF it was simply a case of a new owner and his impatient approach – I do feel bad for Ron Francis because I think for the first time this franchise has a clear positive upward direction moving forward both under the cap and with young talented prospects.
Thank you Ron Francis for inheriting a mess, inheriting the impatience that comes with an unstable financial hockey market, and doing the hard thing and driving the ship down the path toward building a contender that can compete every year. Francis truly had a thankless job and handled it with the quiet grace I would expect of a politician making the tough choices the people might not like. I wish he had got to see it through, but professional sports is fickle… as a Canes fan I just pray that it is the very next general manager that gets to see the Canes into the playoffs.
While I do agree, full respect to Ronnie, I think we fans often make the team he inherited look a lot worse than it actually was, and his deals look better. For instance, Both Slaven and Pesce were drafted before Ron took over.
The team had quite a bit of NHL talent, though a lot of it didn’t pan out.
RF did not always make good deals, see the Scott Darling deal for instance, 16 million spent on what is so far turning out to be a goalie fail (and, gosh, do I ever hope Scotty can find some happiness in Carolina and beat the odds, he has in the past, why not do it again), ditto Lack.
The Kruger signing was a moderately expensive fail.
The Eric Staal or Chris Versteig deals have yet to net us an NHL player (unless we drafted Aho with the Ranger’s second round pick). We have two promising players knocking on the door out of those
RF took on Brian Bickel’s contract to get TT. I’m not sure whether insurance pays all of Brian’s salary at this point, I expect so, but he would’ve been another 5 million dollar commitment.
I’m not sure, but I think RF was responsible for the Victor Rask deal, which looked unnecessarily expensive at the time and is turning out to be a bad decision, rather spent 6 or 7 mill on a player with 60 to 80 points than 4 mill on a player with 30 points.
I mean, what if RF had decided to not trade Eric Staal, or to resign him in the fall. Look at the season he is having, and he is paid less than Victor Rask.
Aho was his crowning draft glory, but many of his other selections, the first rounders in particular, leave a lot to be desired.
Yes, captain hindsight is all knowing, but scouts are paid a lot of money for doing a lot of research, and the Canes scouts have not always identified the best talent available. I think they should have made at least one better first round choice over the last 4 years.
The Canes have a lot of draft picks but have not believed any of them to be good enough to play with the big club. Unless at least some of them turn out to be NHL worthy talent, the sheer volume of draft picks does not make the team better.
I’m listing the gloomiest picture here, but do so purposely to contrast it with the “RF was our savior” view, which I think is exaggerated. The truth lies somewhere in between.
I agree that RF style pitches for overpaid superstars is a bad move, and I hope the new owner won’t head too far down that path, but the overly conservative, no risk, strategy is equally bad.
It is true and you summed up well Francis bad moves as well. And a fair point about the first round draft picks – to this point players taken after Fleury, Bean and Gauthier all have looked to be better players or prospects. You probably said it best when you said the truth lies somewhere between.. It’s making me consider that my appreciation for Francis ‘decent’ job could be overblown – in part because with a few sporadic playoff moments aside this franchise has been mediocre for a long time and even ‘decent’ in a relative mindset can look great…. (which is super sad).
By RF I mean JR pitches for superstars.