Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe looked at the goalie options available via free agency and otherwise. Math-wise, the goalie position is fairly straightforward. The Hurricanes so far seem committed to giving Scott Darling at least another year to right the ship. And the team has one slot available to add the best possible plan B (or possibly even plan A).
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe ventures into a murkier situation in assessing the current state and needs at the forward position. The murkiness comes from uncertainty with regard to how many younger prospects will prove to be NHL-ready for the 2018-19 season. Below is a quick look at the Hurricanes current situation at the forward position.
Disclaimer: I am not getting overly bogged down with who plays with whom and which line players slot on at this early juncture. The focus is more on simple quantity of players by position.
My starting point assumes that none of Lee Stempniak, Derek Ryan or Joakim Nordstrom who are all unrestricted free agents are re-signed.
Center
NHL probables: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Victor Rask, ONE SPOT OPEN
Youth possibilities: Martin Necas, Lucas Wallmark
The team has youthful promise but is thin at the center position. My first iteration of filling four center slots sees Sebastian Aho transitioning more permanently, Victor Rask aiming to rebound and rookies Martin Necas and Lucas Wallmark battling for the final slot. One has to wonder if the Hurricanes will add one more proven NHL center along the way.
Left wing
NHL probables: Jeff Skinner, Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook, ONE SPOT OPEN
Youth possibilities: Warren Foegele
The left wing slot also has an open position. If Jeff Skinner departs via free agency, the left side becomes really thin and also light on scoring production. Warren Foegele and Valentin Zykov would figure to be the front runners to wi the open slot at wing.
Right wing
NHL probables: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Williams, Micheal Ferland, Andrei Svechnikov, Phil Di Giuseppe
Youth possibilities: Valentin Zykov
If Andrei Svechnikov makes the NHL squad as expected, the Hurricanes are reasonably full up at the right wing position though the flexibility of Teravainen could create an extra opening if he moves to the left side.
Other wild cards: Aleksi Saarela, Nicolas Roy, Janne Kuokkanen
Netting it out
When I net it out, two things jump out at me. First is that just like last summer, the team could really use at least one more higher-end scorer. Svechnikov, Necas and other young players have the potential to rise up and be top half of the roster players sooner rather than later, but counting only proven players my math says the Hurricanes have only three players (Aho, Teravainen, Skinner) who provide more than depth scoring. The other thing that jumps out at me is the possibility of three rookies being regulars in the lineup with the current roster.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How many slots do you think the Hurricanes will ultimately give to rookies/youth?
2) What is the biggest positive of this group of forwards? What is the biggest negative?
Go Canes!
I think in one week things will be more clear and able to assess. One trade for a forward would shift a player or two down a notch, but overall the above is on point. I agree we can assume Nordy, Stempniak and Ryan are not returning.
What jumps out at me is the need for at least one more top 6 forward, especially at center, and possibly one more addition with some experience.
There’s a good article over on Hockeybuzz about cheap UFA additions
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Trevor-Shackles/Cheap-Free-Agent-Targets-Forwards/258/93657
There’s nothing at center, but a few LWs with some experience and good upside.
One of Duclair, Agostino or Carr might be quality pick up on the relatively cheap for LW.
I almost threw up at the three names you suggested. They scream Jim rutherford bargain basement shopping isle where you find one Jussi Jokinen and you find one Anson Carter.
Why do the Canes have to be cheap this summer? There are way better left wing options than the three you mentioned – I think the Canes should be ALL IN to acquire at very least 1 45+ point free agent. Even if it is expensive.
No options at center? Tyler Bozak may be getting older but the guy is basically an all-around better version of Derek Ryan – and has had success centering shoot-first offensive players like Phil Kessel. Imagine what a massive upgrade on the 3rd line Center spot if we go with Bozak + Skinner instead of Ryan + Skinner.
I appreciate that Necas wants to be a center and I expect he will become one – but I think the team shouldn’t pull a bill peters and just handcuff a guy positionally. I’m all for Aho and NEcas getting a try at center, but both of them at the same time next year? That is a lot of question marks. If anything I’d like to see Aho return to the 1st line wing spot and maybe Necas can center a 3rd line – or just shift him to right wing if he isn’t ready for center.
I think the Canes absolutely need to be in the free agent market this year – for one EVEN two players. Ideally they can ship out some salary (ahem Rask or Darling) to help the cap situation but I will be extremely mad if they sign only complete bargain bin players (and just to be clear I’m saying the 3 you mentioned are bargain bin – a guy like Stempniak was not who cost 2.5 million and was essentially good for 35+ pts when healthy – that to me is the LOW end signing of what the Canes should be looking at this summer, like worst case scenario you get a Grabner for the bottom 6 but best case scenario you have both Perron or Neal + Bozak allowing both Svech and Necas to be eased in and not needed to carry the offense. I think offensively best case scenario they both can go for 50+ pts as rookies but ideally i’d like to insulate the risk that one or both underperforms with some more Justin Williams type reliable veterans.
Lol, I did say those were bargain basement players, I did not necessarily recommend them. I’m totally with you man! The Canes need to make real upgrades and get high end players to drive the team to the next level of success.
I certainly like your ideas here. Bozak might be a decent upgrade, though there will probably be a bidding war for him.
Dude with the Canes classic approach at free agency the names you suggested become more and more likely to sign by the day.
Throwing up now *
Biggest negative is definitely center. It’s screaming for an upgrade – and Rask is huge question mark moving forward. If Aho can manage center, then we’ve at least got a scoring threat, but it’s still not enough. Canes should be willing to overpay a UFA or in a trade to upgrade up the middle. Ultimately, I think 3 rookies start with the team.
There are a couple of things that need correcting though that change the balance you’ve listed: Zykov can play LW or RW. I believe he played LW with the Hurricanes when he was centered by Aho and TT on the RW. Seems like he’s most likely to land back there to start the season. Also, Ferland is listed by the Hurricanes as a LW and I believe he can play both. Not sure what side he played with Flames.
If both Zykov and Ferland are LW (which makes more sense to me with Skinner likely on the way out and Svech likely slotting into the lineup on the RW), then the dynamics of the wings is a bit different.
I would add a couple more names to the youth possibilities (Kuokkanen and Maenalanen). So it looks more like:
Center
NHL probables: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Victor Rask, ONE SPOT OPEN
Youth possibilities: Martin Necas, Lucas Wallmark, Kuokkanen
Left wing
NHL probables: Jeff Skinner, Michael Ferland, Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook
Youth possibilities: Foegele, Zykov
Right wing
NHL probables: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Williams, Andrei Svechnikov, Phil Di Giuseppe
Youth possibilities: Zykov, Maenalanen
1) My firm belief continues to be that Svechnikov, Zykov, and Foegele will be on the roster. I am very interested to hear about Necas as the week progresses–Twitter, which is often a home for hyperbole, seemed to think he was outstanding last evening. So four is not out of the question.
2) Biggest positive: significant scoring upgrade, especially if you consider the options as Svechnikov for Stempniak, Zykov for Di Guiseppe, Foegele for Nordstrom, Martinook for Kruger, and Ferland for Jooris.
Biggest negative: Experience (three of the above are rookies replacing proven NHLers). This is doubly true at center. I think Aho will be outstanding at C–I expect him to put up 75-80 points, but realize he will struggle some with defensive assignments and face-offs. Having either Necas or Wallmark will mean two centers learning at the NHL level. That will definitely present some problems.
Matt, you stated you were not considering line possibilities. I agree it is too early for this season, at least until another few days of prospect camp. But I can’t help myself thinking about 19-20 or 20-21 having a possible line of Foegele/Staal/Roy (I think by then Roy won’t be needed at C). That would be a nightmare for opponents top scorers.
I would be surprised if both Zykov and Foegele aren’t with the big club when camp breaks. I don’t see what else they have to prove in the AHL.
Early returns from Prospect Camp is that Necas looks very good. He has apparently put on weight and is head and shoulders above the others, including Svetchnikov. If he is ready to play in the NHL, and at center to boot, it is a big plus for the Canes. Still, Prospect Camp isn’t the NHL and he has to prove he is ready.
The problem with paying for a FA center is it puts a guy like Necas further back in the pecking order of centremen. If he isn’t ready this season he sure should be next year. The other side of that story is Aho. We are all assuming Aho is ready to go at center and it won’t effect his offensive output. That’s a big ask. Maybe he’s up for it, but you would hate to see your #1 producer of offense limited by the additional defensive duties required of a centreman.
He is not head and shoulders above Svechnikov. He has more experience in the drills but he and Svechnikov are on a plane by themselves. That much better than everyone else.
Just reporting what I heard. Also heard Necas was more prepared for the bike test, so wasn’t as gassed later as most of the others. That very well may have played a role as well.
Yeah I only saw the Wednesday practice, lol. I know nothing of any bike tests. Would love to hear someone’s insights on the Thursday practice.
I have been saying Aho is ready to play center. I firmly believe that is the best option for our top line.
I wasn’t thinking Lindholm was going to be traded at all… I know, I know, a lot of people disagreed with me. “Samsonite” I was way off! Anyways, Eli being moved did create a void in the top 6. He had a lot of versatility. I think Jordan is our clear No. 2 center. Rask can be a good 3rd line center, he has always been solid on the defensive side of the puck.
The clear opening is on the 4th line. I cant see Necas playing on a 4th line. Or better yet, I wouldn’t put a potential top 6 forward in the position of getting 4th line mins. If that’s the route we would be better letting him develop in a different league.
Needs Vs. Wants… We want a top 6 Center. We can make due and have an improved season with our current Centers. I feel Necas is going to be a C This season.
I think wingers are easier. We have some versatility. Some guys that play either side. I think it will all work out, there is a plan in place and offers on the table. I’m excited to see what happens and where these rumors go.
d-rob. You and I are on the same page regarding Aho. While I understand that +/- is not the greatest stat, it is telling that Aho was +6 the last twelve games when he was playing center. During that time he scored 4g/6a and committed only 2 penalties. Just looking at basic stats he was solid to above average.
Sure, he will have some games where he misses assignments, but he is the team’s best forward until Svechnikov proves otherwise. His creativity will allow others to score, which is what you want from a scoring line center.
Skinner – Stastny/Bozak – Ferland
Perron – Staal – Svechnikov
Terevainen – Aho – Zykov
Mcginn – Wallmark – Foegele/Diguiseppe/Martinook
I know we weren’t supposed to play the line game I’m sorry but it’s just such a nice illustration to help talk about the points. I think the ONLY way the Canes make the playoffs next year is if they add 2 forwards to the lineup capable of 40+ pts (not including the rookies). My reasoning is simple – make Skinner’s line a better line by replacing Ryan with a clear-cut upgrade. Make the whole team better by splitting up your two best centers – Aho and Staal. Aho becomes a matchup proficient center on an offensive line and Staal gets a new free agent partner to help him offensively and allows him to move off a #1 scoring line.
I had to take Rask out for salary purposes. I suppose if Rask returns I can see him as an asset on a 3rd line with Skinner carrying the offensive load and let’s say williams on the other side. That could be an average-good 3rd line. The issue then becomes how do you make the first and second line ABOVE average? Aho – Terevainen – Ferland is an idea being thrown around a lot – not a terrible one but that’s like a 1B line maybe a great 2nd line even. Is there any scenario where Staal and Svechnikov can be a pseudo first line? I can’t think of one unless they played with Aho 😛
Two things stand out to me:
1/ We are very thin on NHL experience at Center. I’m hopeful that Aho and Necas can step in right away but it’s not the most likely outcome. One or both will struggle. I’d rather see us trade for a more experienced Center to give one/both time to adjust. Something like Faulk+ for RNH or Rask+forward-prospect+future for ROR makes sense to me to de-risk the transition for the next year or two.
2/ We are very deep with NHL-ready or very-close-to-NHL-ready forward prospects. It’s anyone’s guess whether they’ll actually make the transition and how high they wind up slotting; as we’ve seen with Lindholm and Hanifin, not even top 5 picks develop according to a regular schedule. The logjam is going to have to break somehow. Yes, I see 3 and maybe even 4 of them promoted this year but that still leaves a good many playing above their level in CLT. I think now may be the time to consider using some of them in trades for more depth on the blue line or a goalie.
The future of the offense does look as promising as ever.
I think Aho and Necas are bit different situations. Aho’s game is not as far along defensively as it is offensively, but it’s not as if he is a massive liability or struggles with decision-making type stuff in general. He is ready to be a good offensive NHL center right now. The defensive side of the puck might be more gradual with a bit of a learning curve, but I don’t see it as a long-term issue.
Necas will be interesting to watch in training camp. I am STRONGLY in the camp that says you do not move him to wing to make the lineup equation work. More than any other player on the team, his skill set leans center over wing. That said, on the defensive side of the puck, he is much more comfortable as F1 on the forecheck where he can use his skating ability to attack instead of playing a read/react role at the offensive blue line or in the neutral zone.
I could very much see a scenario where Necas impresses as expected offensively in training camp but still sees time in the AHL.
If Necas does make the team and assuming no other center additions, I think the 4 set up okay to lean on Staal and Rask for match up minutes and then use Necas’ line more opportunistically. Call that 4th line if you wish, but as long as he is getting 12+ minutes per night with decent line mates, it doesn’t matter.
Matt I think you are pretty opportunistic to think that we can lean on Rask, Staal, Necas and Aho as our 4 centers for next year. I’ve read another comment somewhere about that 4 center group being “a recipe for 10th season out of the playoffs” and I can’t help but agree. I think Wallmark is the ideal rookie to take the 4C spot – it’s a lower risk center position and he has experience already I expect he will make it work. Staal is a given and I think only 1 of Necas or Aho will play center next year – and god I hope the Canes find a more reliable and consistent center option than Rask.
Basically my question is who is the teams number 1 C? It’s okay by me if it is Staal again – but it’s only going to be Staal if Aho is a winger on that line therefore you are left with Necas + Rask to make up your middle 6 offense. That’s a DISASTER. Maybe Aho as a 1C, Jordan 2C, and Rask/Necas 3C is fine but then who are going to be the wingers with Jordan? It puts a lot of pressure on that line to be productive as well as play well defensively. That sort of combination also puts a lot of pressure on whoever becomes the 4th line to take on tougher matchups as we’d likely see the Necas and Aho line get sheltered.
Basically what i’m trying to say is it is a recipe for disaster when your best offensive players (and guys who need the most minutes to score) are being SHELTERED on the defensive end. If Aho makes the move to center and he is sheltered – his production will decrease because his minutes will decrease and he will inevitably perform duties as our 3C. If he does not get sheltered he can become a #1 C this year but do we trust him on a line without Jordan Staal against other teams best night after night? Is Aho-Terevaninen – Ferland/Zykov REALLY a first line? I’d say no.
It further complicates the matters if you are expecting TWO centers to make the roster – BOTH who need top 9 minutes – but BOTH who need to be sheltered in matchups? THe minutes simply don’t work out like that – someone is going to be playing 7 minutes a night and it’s probably going to be Necas in that case. If other team top two lines play an average of 35 minutes a night and you don’t want to see Aho or Necas against those lines then the Canes limit themselves offensively by forcing themselves to trod out below average offensive lines. A lot comes down to how ready they are to play defense – if they aren’t ready to inherit the full-time responsibilities of becoming a 1C (Aho) or a 3C(Necas) then either stay on the wing or play in the AHL (necas).
The TSA line people can make fun of Staal’s scoring all they want but really in my opinion that is the only line the Canes can formulate that is a ‘first line’. Staal gives the other two the necessary defensive presence to allow that line to play against ANY lines – the other teams best and in favourable matchups. If we take Jordan away from those two players and you don’t trust Aho’s defense in the C spot yet then the canes are in big trouble
Thanks, Matt. For all you do.
Powerless…And everyone else who contributes to the daily discussion at Canes and Coffee. THANKS! for all you do.
The name Canes and Coffee was very intentional for what I hoped the site would become which is a digital neighborhood coffee shop where people could discuss/debate Canes hockey with respect for each other and a friendly neighborhood type atmosphere. Early on I tried to do a few direct things to start the conversations, but it was slow going. But the Coffee Shop has emerged with no credit to me but rather to the core group (that is growing) of knowledgeable and even more importantly respectful people that make the site go.
I lift my coffee cup to this group that is the single best part of Canes and Coffee!
Perhaps it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to resign DR. He´s a serviceable center with some scoring, even if a bit overmatched in some situations.
If we can´t get a high en center to drive offense and need some experience and protection at the center position short term this might not be such a bad idea.
Thin at center? I guess that might be the case but what about Martinook and Brown? I would think either would be a suitable 3c or 4c.
I don’t see Julien Gauthier listed as a possible winger. Do we still see him as a prospect with NHL potential?
Concerns about Aho and Necas not having the appropriate development in defensive prowess are certainly valid, but maybe not necessary. After all, isn’t it an axiom that a good offense is a great defense? When you opponent is busy scraping the puck out of his net, he can’t focus on putting it in yours.
When I peruse our potential roster, I see some interesting things.
1) Speed
2) Scorers
3) A good mix of defensive and offensive players, with offensive being the more numerous.
4) A great coaching staff.
5) Several scoring catalysts.
If we do nothing more with trades and FA signings, I believe that we have a playoff team.
But we can be better. And we have trading chips available.
Buffalo wants to be rid of ROR before they have to pay him the bonus on 7/1. Most teams are waiting for that date to pass before they will pony up. Just how badly does Tom want a 1c? Buffalo, I am told, would love to have Justin Faulk wearing their colors this season. Let’s make a deal.
Edmonton needs a fast scoring winger. They need an experienced right handed scoring d-man who can also q-back their pathetic power play. They have RNH or Draisaitl. They have Sekera too. We need a 1c and a left handed stay at home d-man.
Of course it’s never as simple as it seems. Our braintrust has probably already made these offers as well as a bunch of others. Don is on record saying that he is having trouble finding a trade partner.
Tom doesn’t like dealing with UFAs.
So maybe we’ll have to make do with what we have for a while. It’s not as if we have nothing to work with.
Is it?
The Vancouver blogger says that UFA centers are not going for cheap, Boak is apparently looking for a deal in the 6 mill per year range right now. He is no slouch but 32 and never been a fist line center variety, that’s a bit crazy.
So it looks like trading is the best, maybe the only route to go to strengthen the team down the middle.
I’d rather make no trades than bad trades.
I think there are potentially good trades to be made.
I’d give this team a chance as is, though I prefer clarity on the goalie front.
RoR or RNH would be what we need and we are overloaded on right handed d. I think the Canes should aggressively try to make something happen, but their braintrust knows better than do I.
Agreed – UFA centers never go cheap.
Chip Alexander has some interesting comments fro Waddell (probably a future N&O article if not already).
Ward, Ryan, and Stempniak all most likely FAs come Sunday.
Lots of conversations about Skinner with offers – but nothing they feel “comfortable with”.
Waddell has previously said 5 or 6 Checkers’ forwards will be in the mix for roster positions in training camp.
Not sure if they are really looking for a top-6 trade – question didn’t appear to be asked or answered.
And Darling will “100%” be on the team next season, and they are looking for a goalie in free agency and have talked with “5 or 6”.