Suddenly with only two days until the puck drops on the 2019-20 season, it is time to start into the usual season preview series.
Part 1 considers the 2019-20 roster as compared to the 2018-19 team.
One of the common Hurricanes’ themes over the summer was to rave about how deep the team is or how much it had improved. With the volume of changes, it takes some work to consider the changes in total and assess the 2019-20 roster. I think looking at it by position helps paint a clear picture.
Goalie
The big change is that Curtis McElhinney is gone and is replaced by James Reimer. Reimer has the potential to be as good as McElhinney, but he is also coming off a down season at age 31. The question is whether he as a rebound in him. Behind Reimer, the Hurricanes have deep goalie depth with Alex Nedeljkovic now another year deeper in his professional career and coming off a strong 2018-19 season in the AHL. In addition, the Hurricanes also have Anton Forsberg (if he clears waivers) who also has NHL experience. I think it is also significant to note that Petr Mrazek enters the 2019-20 season with many fewer question marks than this time last year.
Netting it out: The Hurricanes enter the season with significant uncertainty in backup James Reimer. But to the positive, Mrazek is less of a wild card in his second season with the team, and the Canes will be four deep with potential NHL netminders if Forsberg clears waivers. I would call the goalie position even but still with risk.
Defense
The Hurricanes parted ways with Justin Faulk and Calvin de Haan and added Jake Gardiner, Joel Edmundson and Gustav Forsling. The return of Edmundson in the Faulk trade got the Hurricanes back to having five top 4 defensemen. Just like in goal, the Hurricanes have depth at the lower end of the depth chart
Netting it out: I go back and forth, but I would consider the changes to be a slight downgrade with a wild card and the potential for meaningful upside if Gardiner can jump start one of the two power play units. Though the personnel changed over, the depth is still there.
Forwards
The forward position is arguably where perception and reality are farthest apart. With the addition of Erik Haula and Ryan Dzingel, the offense seemed to get deeper and stronger. But the decision by Justin Williams not to return probably eliminated any gains. Now the team is minus Micheal Ferland and Justin Williams and is plus Erik Haula, Ryan Dzingel and possibly most significantly a few rookies with upside. Williams is may underrated in terms of producing offense. He finished third on the team in scoring behind only Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. In addition, Ferland was very effective playing with Aho and Teravainen in the first half of the 2018-19 season before being derailed by an injury and never really recovering. So while the Hurricanes did add two capable scoring forwards, the team also lost two.
The biggest upside at forward is the growth of young players and prospects. Sebastian Aho is still young and entering only his second year as a center in the NHL. Andrei Svechnikov is only 19 and entering his sophomore season. And Julien Gauthier and Martin Necas are both high ceiling prospects who could boost the team’s fortunes.
Netting it out: The skill sets vary, but I view the changeover of the veteran forwards as being in the neighborhood of an even swap. Haula and Dzingel need to settle in and bring some offense. As noted above, the potential of young players is by far the greatest upside for the Hurricanes.
Upside from within
The comparison of NHL veterans from 2018-19 to 2019-20 yields a different but probably close to equal roster. Gardiner has the potential to be an x-factor on a power play that mostly struggled last season, but otherwise the changes line up as fairly even one for one swaps.
But the greatest upside comes from the team’s youth. Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele, Lucas Wallmark and Haydn Fleury are entering only their second year in the NHL. From the prospect pool, Martin Necas, Julien Gauthier, Jake Bean and Alex Nedeljkovic all have significant potential upside. To what degree that upside is realized will likely determine whether the Hurricanes take a step up and have a slightly easier path to the playoffs or if instead the team will again need to scratch and claw to pull out a playoff berth at the very end.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How would you rate the veteran talent level of the 2019-20 roster compared to the 2018-19 team?
2) To what degree do you think the young prospects currently at the fringe of NHL can/will boost the Hurricanes for the 2019-20 season?
Go Canes!
Goalies always carry some risk, and agree with Matt’s perspective (still think Forsberg makes a statement in his play whether on the Canes or if claimed by another team). May not be a fair comparable, but I’d rate the goalie group as an improvement to last year based on depth.
The defense got better in areas we needed most (powerplay specialist and a physical sound defensive defenseman). Time will tell if it makes them a better unit, but I think it will present a slight upgrade.
My assessment of JW and Ferland was that they were complimentary pieces to the top lines, but because they were interchangeable the real drivers were Aho and Turbo. So I think Dzingel fills one of those “complimentary” slots. Whereas Haula I believe is a driver and makes his line mates better, so whoever is on his line should see an increase in point production. That said, I think we are deeper this year with ability to boost production across several lines. But again, needs to be proven.
Unless Donnie has another trade to master, this is the year young guys like Gauthier, Necas and even Fleury may get to show their stuff. It’s up to them now.
1) Matt. I agree with you that the talent was not objectively improved. Williams had 65 assists the past two seasons. For comparison, Haula had 67 assists in the most recent three full seasons he played. Haula did score 29 goals in 17-18, but that was somewhat of a magical season for Vegas. Haula was on a line with Perron who had 50 assists, which tied for 26th in the league along with Backstrom/Getzlaf/Doughty. I don’t see an objective argument that indicates that Haula replaces Williams’ production.
Dzingel is a slight upgrade from Ferland, but not more than the difference between Williams and Haula.
On D, de Haan and Faulk were both top 4 defensemen. Edmundson is a bottom 4 defenseman. I do think Gardiner is the best of the group, so again a wash at best.
The big difference is that McElhinney was consistently good. Many seem to forget that until January he was the Canes only reliable goalie because Mrazek struggled and Darling—well.
Bottom line, the veteran talent is slightly below last season.
2) A little. But the Canes don’t need Gauthier or Necas to win the Calder. The big upside is in Svechnikov (and to a lesser degree Wallmark, I think he will surprise many) having a better second season. Svechnikov looks ready for a 50-60 point season. He could/should be on the first unit PP. If he makes progress like the Canes have seen from Aho and TT, then the veteran level being similar to last season won’t be a big deal. Also, if Reimer falters, we will likely see Ned play much like Binnington did last season.
1. We are a faster team (Dzingel and Haula) on paper at least, we didn’t slide in physicality (Edmondson for Ferland), we’ve added scoring (Dzingel and Haula again and, again, on paper), marginally better D, and better depth in goal. For the latter, ct correctly points out that Mrazek was iffy the first few months of the season – because that is indicative of Mrazek’s career we have to expect something similar this season – whether at the beginning, middle, or end.
So I think the veteran presence is better.
2. The “marginal” young prospects are Gauthier, Necas, McKeown. I don’t see a significant boost to the team from any of them but I don’t see a need for that. I wonder how short of a leash RBA will keep these players on – neither Gauthier or Necas are RBA style players and as good as Svech is RBA struggled with him early in the season.
I do think something you didn’t mention – our 4th line centered by Wallmark – has a chance to be special. Wallmark is probably our 4th line center in years and he is only getting better. They have the ability to add offense to more traditional 4th line roles and that type of depth is something that could prove important.
And then there was one (“marginal” young prospect) – Necas. Gauthier and McKeown were sent down to CLT.
Golies = deeper (improvement)
D = slight downgrade (I’d say 5%), particular concern with the PK
Forward = equal (tough replacementsand we don’t know howHala and Dzingel are going to fit into the system, but we downgradedon snarl and experience and updated a bit on speed and hopefully scoring, and the lineup is younger on average).
The two potential improvements fro last year are the powrplay, that’s what Gardner is paid the big bucks for, hopefully he can help elevate at leats one unit.
Young guys realizing or continuing to realize their potential, all the usual suspects.
The one item which no one commented on yet is the current team’s chemistry. I think it needs time to gel and soon. During the pre-season we played mostly those vying for a position on the team but haven’t seen the lines or the defensive pairs and the chemistry on the ice. Just something to think about.
All waivers clear.
Gauthier down to AHL. Necas stays.
That does not gel with the “you earn your ice time” mantra.
The goat did everything expected of him, played pretty well actually, though he needs to finish more of his chances.
Necas did not play particularly awesome in my opinion.
Wonder if a trade is in the works and Necas is one of the trade chips.
I think teams almost have this gentleman agreement that players are not claimed of waivers this time of year. I’ve seen a few former first round picks and guys with some upside still being sent down, see e.g. the Canucks list.
I would not be surprised if DW makes a move.
I’ve never heard Brind’Amour or anyone from the Canes says Gauthier did more than Necas. That’s 100% from the media and fans. I liked what Gauthier brought to the table, but it did have it’s limitations. He didn’t exactly blow up the stat sheet. One assist in six games.
I think it’s Necas for one reason. Powerplay. He moved the puck well on the PP, unlike some of the Canes regulars. If he can provide a boost on the PP it would be way more valuable than Gauthier playing a energy role, which is what he is at this point.
I also don’t think there is a gentleman’s agreement. NHLPA would lose their minds if they thought so. I’m pretty sure the Islanders would love for someone to take Ho-Sang off their hands.
I concur with lts there is no gentleman’s agreement as such. If I am not mistaken this is when we picked up Mac last year – definitely correct me if I am wrong. And a number of players were picked up. The issue with players on waivers right now is that most teams have the guys they want and are set up with the salary/cap space they plan to work with. Picking up players on the waiver wire means adjusting rosters from both a count and a dollar perspective.
Necas was seeing PP time today – that was a strong suit of his in CLT, and is a plus for him here. Gauthier had trouble finishing, even when he charge the net.
And can you imagine RBA trying to coach a team with two rookies on it??? 😀
In the end, it is a quick drive between CLT and RAL and positions can be readily changed.
Ummm…last year? Wallmark, Foegele, Svechnikov…
Absolutely right you are, lts. I was just thinking of Svech.
The Canes can stay tight at a roster of 20 on a homestand, but I bet they take a couple with them when they head out west.
Good Point. I personally don’t care who remains in Raleigh as long as they contribute to the success of the jerks, but Necas didn’t super impress and then he suffered an injury in practice.
Since we’re talking about jerks, Jurco is penciled in on the second line in Edmunton. Hopefully he’ll be successful, fortuantely it’s a western conference team so it won’t hurt the Canes much if he is.
I was talking with someone the other day about recent Canes/Checkers prospects and players finding success this preseason – Jurco did well for himself in EDM. Zykov had a killer preseason and stayed up with VGK. Roy also stayed with Vegas. Meanwhile Brown, Poturalski, Renouf, and Carrick were all waived and sent down to the AHL.