This article is part 3 of a set previewing the Carolina Hurricanes versus the Washington Capitals series.
Part 1, which you can read HERE, assessed the Washington Capitals.
Part 2, which you can find HERE, had the Carolina Hurricanes side.
Today’s article sort of combines the two and makes a short list for “The Canes will win the series if ___” and another short list for “The Canes will lose the series if ___.”
The Canes will win the series if _____
1) They can move the puck out of their own end and through the neutral zone successfully
I really think more than anything the series comes down to this. In the two recent match ups, the Capitals forechecking scheme had the Hurricanes baffled for significant stretches. The Caps did intermittently attack the puck aggressively, but at least equally so the Caps took away the first pass. The result was mostly a mess of the Hurricanes making errant passes, chucking the puck to space and hoping for the best or just turning it over. Brind’Amour and his crew have fresh experience and a decent amount of game tape to make adjustments. How the coaching staff and team handle this challenge has a domino effect. If the Hurricanes are unable to advance the puck cohesively and move in straight lines out of their own end, it obviously keeps the Hurricanes from playing much offense, but equally importantly, disjointed play through the neutral zone makes it nearly impossible to get in on the forecheck on dump ins.
2) They play a fast and aggressive brand of 5-on-5
When the Hurricanes are going well, the formula has most often been a fast-paced brand of 5-on-5 hockey. When the players can hit the higher gear, the Hurricanes can match pace with any team in the NHL and create problems for even the best of teams in terms of moving the puck out of their own end. The Hurricanes bread and butter is even strength hockey with pace to it. Here is hoping the Hurricanes can find that and maintain it throughout the series.
3) Petr Mrazek (possibly with help from McElhinney) can match Braden Holtby
Goaltending is always an X-factor in the playoffs. If Mrazek can continue his strong play and match or better Braden Holtby, a Capitals strength gets neutralized, and the Hurricanes gain the chance to steal a game or two.
The Canes will lose the series if ____
1) The series becomes a special teams battle
The Capitals roster has a number of good or even elite power play players. While the Hurricanes have the potential to match them if the good version of the Jekyl and Hyde power play shows up. But better is not to tempt fate with Alexander Ovechkin set up in his office and blasting away at the Hurricanes net.
2) The Caps win the forechecking battle
In the same vein as #1 in the ‘win’ section, the difference in the two recent losses was the Capitals ability to stymie the Hurricanes in their own end. If the Capitals again have the upper hand in this regard, the series becomes a challenging one for the Hurricanes. The combination of opportunistically generating scoring chances and at the same time keeping the Hurricanes from attacking is almost certainly a deadly one for the Canes.
3) Ovechkin thrives and Aho looks like he is just getting experience
A team’s best players very often decide playoff series. I think Aho is the Hurricanes best player, but he finished quietly. It is uncertain whether he just hit a bit of a wall or if he has an injury, but regardless, the Hurricanes need the mid-season version of Aho to counter Ovechkin and company. If Aho continues to be quiet, and Ovechkin thrives, the Hurricanes start from a sizable deficit that would be hard to overcome.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these six factors do you see as most critical to deciding the series?
2) Which one(s) concern you most in terms of the Canes not performing well?
3) Who has additional ‘win if’ and ‘lose if’ items for the series?
Go Canes!
The Canes win if they get contributions from 19 players. The third and fourth lines don’t have to score every game but they each need to have several shifts where Carolina is on the offensive for 60-90 seconds without any let up. When the Canes get those extended shifts they can beat any team.
The Canes lose if Hotby plays like he did the last two Tampa games in last year’s playoff.
Agreed.
As cliché as it sounds, the Canes collectively came together as one unit which was a huge reason we earned a playoff spot while breaking the drought. I will up ct’s statement and say it will take 21 players (2 goalies and 19 skaters). Should be a good series ahead!
The first factor is the most important in deciding the series… with a bit of refinement. The important factor isn’t getting out of their own end, although that is prerequisite. The important factor is maintaining possession into the zone. Throwing the puck into the corners is either a long turnover or a necessity to grind, the second and third worst outcomes after a short turnover. The top three outcomes require entering the zone with the the puck, with 1-2-3 determined by what you do after entering the zone with possession.
We will not beat Washington simply by doing the second worst thing instead of the worst. We need to play for a top half outcome and possess the puck in transition for a good percentage of the time.
The good news is the Caps do an excellent job of taking away the normally “safe” plays. It is good news because they are taking risks to take away safe plays, and giving up opportunities for dangerous plays.
Exactly what are the dangerous plays? Well that’s where the coaching staff and analytics guys come in. A good game plan will punish the Caps whenever they do a good job of taking away “safe” plays. We win if we can do that.
If the Caps adjust and stop taking away the safe plays, use the safe plays. Take whatever they give and don’t beat your head against the wall trying to do the one thing they are taking away. Situational recognition and decision making will decide this series.
I concur with the basis of ashevillecaniac’s somment. If indeed, as Matt suggested the Caps were good at getting in the way of the first passes in the d-zone so, as the article I posted a couple of days ago indicate the Caps were weak in the neutral zone. So the key is getting the puckinto the neutral zone under control and press forward. And it is up to the coaching staff to come with the schemes to do that. If that is a focus, however,it didn’t show up in today’s practice which was all about special teams.
To that I would add the “go-go-go” forechecking, with the stipulation that goaltending again rises to the occasion of backstopping any breakdowns in the o-zone on forechecking to handle the odd-man rush that may ensure.
Finally – and this is the one thing missing – the Canes are far better than average in league with high-danger chances particularly in front of the net. This is something the Canes need to continue to do – hard play in the “hack and whack” zone.