Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe had the goalie position as the Canes big off-season decision #1.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe turns to the blue line for Canes big off-season decision #2.
After a couple years with the blue line projected to become a top strength but not quite getting there, a fairly significant shake up last summer finally yielded the desired results. Out was Noah Hanifin, and in were Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan. The result was a blue line that was strong at the top but also balanced. Justin Faulk played at a higher level out of the gate paired with Calvin de Haan. Jaccob Slavin paired with the other newcomer Dougie Hamilton. And Brett Pesce and Trevor van Riemsdyk stocked arguably the most talented third pairing (if you wanted to call it that) in the entire NHL. The slotting and volume of ice time varied a bit as the season wore on, but the Hurricanes blue line was a strength throughout the regular season and also the playoffs.
Simplest would be to leave it alone
With all of the Hurricanes defensemen under contract for the 2019-20 season, the simplest thing to do this summer would be to just leave things alone and to count on the same blue line leading the way again next season.
That could happen, but a couple factors could push the team to make changes from this position of strength.
Contract and salary situations
With the addition of de Haan and Hamilton last summer, the Hurricanes had five defensemen on the 2018-19 roster who were earning top 4 type salaries of $4 million or more. That worked fine for the 2018-19 season with the Hurricanes scraping against the salary cap minimum, but it is not clear that will work going forward once Sebastian Aho re-signs and a couple other contracts push the team closer to the salary cap.
Contract-wise, most notable is the fact that Justin Faulk is signed only through the 2019-20 season. As such, at some point the Hurricanes would seemingly want to either re-sign Faulk if he is part of the long-term plan or otherwise trade him to collect something in return before he departs. If the team wants to cut salary on the blue line going forward and/or if the team does not deem Justin Faulk to be part of the long-term plan, he could be dealt into the off-season trade market that opens in June.
The expansion draft
Another consideration is the impending expansion draft scheduled for the summer of 2021. If the protection rules are the same as the Las Vegas draft as expected, then the Hurricanes will likely only be able to protect three defensemen. That would figure to be Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and then only one of Dougie Hamilton, Calvin de Haan, Justin Faulk or Trevor van Riemsdyk. (Note that van Riemsdyk is also scheduled to become a free agent next summer.) One could go either way with this one. First, one could argue that the team should shed a defensemen or two via trade rather than risking losing a good one for nothing. But alternatively, I actually think the better argument is that the team should keep its overabundance of depth on the blue line realizing that it will inevitably lose a defenseman in the expansion draft.
The potential need to add at forward
Possibly hidden a bit beneath the team’s success was the the fact that the lineup could still benefit from adding one more higher-end offensive player and scoring catalyst. A late-season push did boost the team’s scoring to 16th in the NHL, but there is room for growth here, and the easiest way to add scoring punch that is not from a bad free agent contract could be by trading a defenseman.
Reasons for pause
There are also a couple mitigating reasons for standing pat on defense. First, this week it was announced that Calvin de Haan would be out for four to six months with shoulder surgery. Four months stretches to mid-September, so his readiness for the start of the 2019-20 would be in question. In addition, the team is not incredibly deep in terms of NHL-ready depth below the core group. Haydn Fleury represents an experienced #7, but Brind’Amour’s really light usage of him in the playoffs suggests he is not the same caliber as the players above him. Jake Bean had a strong 2018-19 campaign in the AHL and figures to get some NHL ice time if and when injuries create an opening, but he is not yet proven. Past that, the Hurricanes have not chosen to stock their AHL blue line with players with NHL experience. So trading a defenseman combined with de Haan’s uncertain schedule could quickly see the blue line go from a position of depth to a position of need. Finally, there is the issue of chemistry. If the Hurricanes do decide to deal from a position of strength, Faulk would seem to be the most likely to go because of his contract situation. With Brind’Amour’s heavy emphasis on the team bonding, the issue of upsetting team chemistry could come up for this and other trade scenarios.
Where I land
As someone who had Faulk on the trading block for some time, I am admittedly a bit biased, but if a deal is there to be had, I would consider trading Faulk to add forward help. To be clear, Faulk had a much better season such that the reason to trade Faulk this off-season would not be to eliminate a weakness. Rather, I just think he is the best option to trade from a position of strength. As noted above, I think the Hurricanes could use one more scoring forward, ideally a center. And if Faulk’s next contract is for say five years, that would take him to age 32. For a player who seemed to be on the wrong side of the line mobility-wise only a year ago, I think that term has much risk. Finally, I think the Hurricanes have the depth to cover the loss. Van Riemsdyk is capable of filling in in the top 4 if necessary, and the move opens room for Bean to get an NHL audition in 2019-20.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Who thinks it is crazy to consider tinkering with something that was arguably the blue line that was arguably the team’s greatest strength in 2018-19 and believes standing pat is the way to go?
2) To what degree does the impending 2020 expansion draft affect your opinion on the best course of action?
3) Do you view Justin Faulk as part of the core going forward? Or would you instead consider trading him before he becomes a free agent? If not Faulk, is there another defenseman, whom you would consider trading?
Go Canes!
TVR and de Haan both had shoulder surgery and are both out 4-6 months, so we only have 4 proven D-men headed into the season, I think this de Haan’s second major shoulder surgery (check me on that), so my opinion is resign Faulk and stand pat.
If big decision #3 is what to do with all of those draft picks… then a full accounting of the reasoning can wait for that discussion.
1) I don’t know if crazy is the correct word, but it is short-sighted to weaken the Canes strongest position. In addition, as asheville mentions, the team will be without two of the group until Thanksgiving or later. So a trade would mean all of Fleury, Bean, and McKeown would be on the ice for the first 20 games or so.
2) The expansion draft should be considered but only marginally.
3) The part everyone is missing is that the overabundance is on the left side. Pesce was by almost every statistical measure the team’s best D-man once he moved to the left. While Faulk was slightly better early in the season with de Haan, he was greatly improved paired with Pesce. With Fleury and Bean in the wings, the Canes have extra defensemen who play on the left side. McKeown is the only regular right-side D-man who might be NHL ready. Trading a right-side defenseman doesn’t really make sense–I understand that Pesce can do just as well defensively on the right side, however there were obvious advantages to having his shot come from the center of the ice instead of from the outside. If Fleury and/or Bean impress the best option might be to see what de Haan can bring back once he is healed. If that option doesn’t appeal to you (and I don’t much like it), then I think you have your answer.
I just wanted to mention that the Seattle expansion draft is in the summer of 2021.
Also the 2020-21 season can be expected to be delayed by a lockout, so perhaps CdH and TVR will be healthy when play actually starts.
I will post some additional comments/thoughts later in the day.
Thanks for catching wrong date for expansion draft. I fixed it.
The idea of trading a Dman is potentially a reasonable /maybe good idea. I would definitely consider it if we have a good AHL candidate who can replace him…IF THIS IS THE ACTUAL SITUATION!
I’m not qualifted to confirm that, but it appears possible…either Bean, or McKeown.
I’m retired, so I can spend a ridiculous amount of time every year researching potential draft picks. This year I have 27 defenseman who could be picked in the top 3 rounds.
Dmen usually take longer to develop, so that doesn’t help the Canes directly, but if we’re thinking about back-filling for a dman trade then HELP could be on the way.
Speaking of the draft…I read that we have four picks, total, in the top 2 rounds. Does anyone have more specific information on this? I’m thinking that our 1st round is 28, but after that…?
I tried to make an educated guess on 28, but only boiled it down to 20 guys, so??? Hard to know about the other teams selections, and exponentially gets harder!
Frst round – 28.
Second round – 36, 37, 60.
(#GoogleKnowsAll – LOL!)
It all depends on what would be offered for Faulk (or another blueliner). How much is a team really willing to give for what could be a 1 year rental? Also, Faulk has a partial NTC and so will have some say in the matter. I think to really land a top 6 forward in a trade, it will be more than just Faulk (i.e. high pick or good prospect).
One benefit to moving Faulk would be the team would finally move on from a failing PP that seems to completely revolve around him. For all the great moves by RBA, sticking with Faulk on PP1 is still utterly perplexing to me.
I always liked the way McKeown played when given some games in Raleigh – although don’t know if he’s regressed/progressed in Charlotte this year.
With GMDW mentioning that he would like to extend Faulk I started looking at contract comparisons on capfriendly. I believe Faulks representation is going to push for the OEL deal, as they should. OEL has played 8 seasons on a less than stellar Coyotes team before signing his 8 x 8.25M deal this past July 1. He is a first round pick in 2009, and through 8 seasons compiled 576GP 102G 188A for 290pts was a -73 with 360PIM. I’m not looking at any analytics just pure stats.
The other player I think that lines up well with OEL is Tyson Barrie. He has played 8 years on a Colorado team that has had more success over those years than either Ari or Carolina. He still has one more year left on his deal (4 year 5.5M avg). He is a 3rd round pick in 2009, and through 8 seasons compilied 484GP 75G 232A for 307pts was -59 with 163 PIM. If Colorado is looking to extend TB, it will be in the OEL money ballpark.
Justin Faulk has played 8 years on a less than stellar Canes team. He has one year left on his deal (6 year, 4.83M avg). He is a 2nd round pick in 2010, and through 8 seasons compiled 559GP 85G 173A for 258pts was -100 with 265PIM. I don’t think he will get the OEL deal, but it will be closer than most are willing to think… He will get 7-8M avg on his next deal, like it or not. And if he makes it to next years free agency, all bets are off because with who will be available and inflation in contracts the OEL deal could be a mute point.
Any team that has Haydn Fleury as their #7 defenseman AND boasts of having “depth” at the blue line is delusional. We need a #7 defenseman who the coach believes in. Fleury is not the guy.
I agree with those who say that we should stand pat with our 6. We need to invest in a big, strong and mean #7 defenseman. Maybe a #8 as well. I watched with shock as we allowed Dahlbeck, Cav, and Fora go back to Europe. I couldn’t believe my eyes as I saw Vancouver let Triamkin go back to Russia. We need one or two like them. Europe is a potential source for a good, inexpensive pickup.
Europe could also be a good source for a goalkeeper. For that matter, we might be able to pickup another big fast Finn forward like Saku.
But I digress.
I believe that our forward corps/core is replete with talent. We must replace Ferland. But after that,
we are in good shape.
Attention must be paid to our lack of depth on the blue line. We need also be vigilant about our potential nudity at the goalkeeper position.
We are definitely overstaffed with D at the NHL level. And Bean is knocking on the door. I think we are definitely in a position to trade one of our top-6 D for assets we can use. But Faulk and TvR would both be one-year rentals so the return would unlikely be a top-6 forward. If Slavin and Pesce are untouchable, that leaves Dougie and CdH. Hamilton became the offensive d–man he was advertised to be once his broken finger healed. And there were d-men as reliable as CdH. So I really think we stand pat. Fleury and Bean will get their chances as injury replacements – although I agree with lts’s comment from yesterday that if RBA doesn’t trus Fleury it may be time to part ways. Other organizations think highly (as does Vellucci) and his path to the NHL and ability to contribute would be greatly improved in another organization. Also, remember the name Jesper Sellgren – a sixth round dratf pick out of Sweden who is playing for the Checkers in the playoffs. He will be back in Sweden next year, most likely, but he plays a sweet offensive, puck-moving game from what I have seen.
The expansion draft has an impact on how contracts will get structured but I don’t see us making trade/no-trade or sign/no-sign decisions on that basis.
Having just read canesjkg’s salary comparisons for Faulk I have to wonder if the team wants to commit that type of money to him, particularly given what Slavin and Pesce are making. The question may be if we cannot extend Faulk, when do we trade him?
1) don’t fix what is not broke.
2) no concern. If we loose somebody we have fleury and bean to fill the gap who will be more experienced at that time.
3) yes. If we need a scoring forward there are the UFAs. This team likes each other. That is so important and many teams have problem. I think park of the reason they did so well is management believed in them and did not make trades how do you fell and perform when you are valued. Get a forward in free agency. We do not need much.
While I also agree with LTS observation yesterday, I still have confidence in the development of McKeown and Fleury, playing in this system.
No one comes out of the womb knowing how to play hockey. 100% of the skills and strategies are learned. Conventional wisdom was that a player couldn’t master NHL defense until age 27. Now, with improved coaching and nutrition from youth up through developmental leagues, some players are ready earlier.
And others are not. What takes so long is that it takes as many repetitions doing something the right way as it was done the wrong way, to replace patterns of muscle memory. Humans don’t consciously think about moving every individual muscle, and to get them to work perfectly in unison to play master class NHL defense takes a lot of repetition.
McKeown was a top 50 NHL prospect when we acquired him and Fleury s pedigree is well known. That means both have the right genetic elements in terms of frame and fast twitch/aerobic muscle composition. With enough repetition of detail either or both could blossom into a top 4 defenseman.
Note that Fleury is 22 and McKeown is 23. If they are still progressing, then I say we kick back with a favorite beverage and watch them progress, under the tutelage of excellent coaching.
There are all of those draft picks sitting there though…
The age I have heard from many around the NHL is 23. At 23 you are considered to be who you are. Doesn’t bode well for McKeown. Fleury is almost there himself. Defensemen may take a bit longer, but 27? I don’t know for sure but I’m willing to bet you can count the defensemen on one hand that didn’t play regularly in the NHL until 27.
McKeown’s main problem??? – he is in the wrong organization. We are too stacked on the right side. He would be a 3rd pairing RHD on many NHL teams. Same with Fleury on the left side.
Then the Canes must either promote them, lowering the cost on D and add at forward, or trade them to one of the multiple teams who really need update on D (especially the right side) and collect the best they can get, which should be at least a high pick, should be a serviceable or better NHL forward, depending on situation.
Toronto are desperate for cheap D with potential and are overloaded at forward.
The worst the Canes can do, and this is a practice that is causing the Red Wings a lot of trouble, is to leave NHL talent in the minors until they either quit, stagnate or leave the first chance they get.
I agree.
I agree on standing pat for the moment. There are injuries to our top 6 D and there will be opportunities to bring up some of the Checkers prospects up for auditions, just make sure to give them real and complete auditions, not 4 minutes in a limited role.
If someone else views Fleury more favorably than we do, trade him, along with 1 of our 2nd round picks, maybe one of our prospects or a guy like McGinn for someone to help at forward, maybe to LA for their second line center, or to Edm for Puljarvi, if they’ve really given up on him (though I prefer center depth).
I don’t think Faulk will yield a much worse return at the trade deadline as he would next fall. I don’t want to see another Skinner type dump, and I prefer to see Faulk stick it out with this team, just don’t build the PP around him.
In short, we got a good D, let’s give it another season, knowing there will be chances for the pipeline playrs to strut their stuff and shake their little douches on the catwalk.
This conversation starts with Justin Faulk. What to do? Does Faulk want to stay, or does he want to test the market? How much does he want? Reasonable or not? No way I give Faulk anywhere near $8M for 8 years. I liked the improvement in Faulk’s game this season. He was much more reliable. No, he didn’t light up the PP, but it wasn’t just his fault. The Canes need a more dynamic player at the point that is for sure. It ain’t Hamilton. He’s a shoot first, second, and third guy.
I would be glad to see Faulk stay, but if he goes that’s OK too. I am curious to see Bean in action on the PP. I also contend it’s s**t or get off the pot with Fleury next season. The Canes should also consider that based upon his playoff performance someone may offer TVR and nice raise in 2020.
If Faulk stays I would quietly see if anyone would like Hamilton. Yes, he was helpful in the regular season. He was terrible in the playoffs and based upon his playing style I don’t see that changing. Other teams have TVs, so I doubt any will come calling.
The bottom line to me is if you are standing still, you are falling behind. The best franchises are always trying to improve. The core players stay, but others move in or move on. Making no changes is usually a recipe for regression.