The the abrupt end to the 2018-19 season last Thursday, and locker room clean out day on Monday, the Carolina Hurricanes have officially ventured into the off-season.
I started down the road of writing a higher-level article detailing the big decisions for the Hurricanes this off-season (that will follow soon too) but instead am going to do a deeper dive on the goalie situation for next year.
Contract situations
The only goalie that the Hurricanes have signed for the 2019-20 season is Scott Darling who ironically is the one goalie all but certain not to return. Darling will most certainly be bought out to end that struggle of a relationship. The other certainty is that Alex Nedeljkovic will be re-signed and with the organization but it unclear where he will play next season. Finally, Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney are both scheduled to become unrestricted free agents come July 1. Mrazek is likely to command a significant raise over the $1.5 million that he earned for the 2018-19 season. McElhinney should be in demand as a backup and also should net a raise but more as a higher-end backup.
The best bet is that the Hurricanes re-sign Mrazek and give Nedeljkovic his first extended opportunity at the NHL as a backup initially. But that depends on contract negotiations with Mrazek. Even coupled with a Darling buyout, that keeps the salary commitment to the goalie position reasonable. Adding to the range of possibilities, there are a decent number of goalies heading into free agency this summer.
A burning question to start
Is it possible that the biggest change in terms of goaltending this season was not actually the goalies but rather the fact that the Hurricanes team defense was just so much better? While I do think that McElhinney’s play early and Mrazek’s play late were both truly the goalie excelling, I also think that the team being more steady defensively was a key component too. If one buys the team defense explanation, then risk of starting anew in net seems less significant.
Goalie start math
Most seem to think that giving Nedeljkovic NHL ice time eliminates the possibility of re-signing McElhinney. But could the team utilize three goalies at the NHL level? After the awkwardness of the three goalies early in the 2018-19 season, the knee jerk reaction is to say no way. But with Nedeljkovic waiver-exempt for the 2019-20 season, let’s try some interesting math.
–If he returns, Petr Mrazek would figure to be the starter with at least a slight edge in a 1A/1B scenario. In that role, one could argue that 50 games is a good number to stay fresh and be ready for playoff hockey.
—Curtis McElhinney, who will turn 36 on Thursday, played 33 games in 2018-19, but that is a recent high water mark for him. And he was at his best with nicely-spaced starts. He might be able to do more which is a positive, but something like 20 games might be perfect for him.
–That would still leave 12 NHL starts for Alex Nedeljkovic. If he seems up to the task, I think the team would want to get him more action. But an injury or two could quickly boost that number. And if Nedeljkovic proves to be ready to go, the team could easily adjust his start total upward.
How would this work?
Extra forwards and defensemen work fine, but as demonstrated by the Hurricanes run of it last year, carrying three goalies at the NHL level does not really work. There are only two nets for practice which makes for odd preparation.
But critical to such an unorthodox split of starts is the fact that Alex Nedeljkovic will still be waiver-exempt for the 2019-20 season. Nedeljkovic could shuttle back and forth as needed to maximize his development. Nedeljkovic could primarily utilize Charlotte as home base again and get a good number of starts there. Then he could be recalled with the intent of playing not backing up for a few games here or there. So when the Hurricanes hit one of those stretches of five games in eight nights, Nedeljkovic could be recalled with the intent of starting two of those games in a short span of time before returning to Charlotte. If either McElhinney or Mrazek were injured, Nedeljkovic would be recalled and importantly be given the net instead of the bench for a decent number of those games. With even a short-term injury, it seems like the path to 15-18 starts for Nedeljkovic could actually fit within bringing both 2018-19 goalies back.
Why assume the complexity over just handing the backup job over the Nedeljkovic?
Because the Hurricanes made the playoffs and advanced, I think it is possible to get too much of a sense of security in terms of making the playoffs again next season. The Hurricanes only clinched a playoff spot in the last week of the season which means the turn of even a few games could see the Hurricanes on the outside looking in.
Also worth noting is exactly how the season unfolded in net. Mrazek was not that good in a starter’s role out of the gate. Instead, waiver claim turned hero McElhinney was the steadying force that the Hurricanes desperately needed early in the season. Then down the stretch in March it was Mrazek’s turn to lead and dazzle. Could it be that Mrazek starts slow again in 2019-20 and that the team needs additional help?
I also think it is possible to consider Nedeljkovic to be much more of a sure thing than he is. No doubt, Nedeljkovic had a strong 2018-19 season that warrants a chance at the NHL level. He could well be ready to seize the NHL job and never look back. But that is far from a forgone conclusion. Nedeljkovic struggled mightily making the jump to the AHL. Could he face similar growing pains making the move to the NHL?
The perfect storm in a bad way would be if Mrazek started slow again and then if Nedeljkovic is not ready yet.
How does it end?
Most likely, the situation ends with Darling being bought out, McElhinney departing for free agency, Mrazek being re-signed for 2-4 years and Nedeljkovic moving into the NHL backup role until he can seize the job from Mrazek. That approach has some risk to it, but the only way to learn if Nedeljkovic is the goalie of the future for the Hurricanes is to give him a chance to become that.
What say you Canes fans?
1) To what degree do you think the team’s improved goaltending in 2018-19 was the result of the goalies simply being better? To what degree do you think it was the improved and deep blue line and team defense?
2) Do you think a three-way goalie situation with Nedeljkovic mostly in Charlotte but arriving to take some turns in NHL game action?
3) If you were the general manager, what would you do with the goalie position this summer?
Go Canes!
I’m not a fan of the “three headed goaltender” as a plan. The only thing this would do is likely have three unhappy goaltenders. All three of these guys have personal goals, as they should, and this plan wouldn’t sit well with any of them.
The decision in goal starts with Mrazek’s demands for salary and term. If it’s reasonable you sign the guy. Frankly, he’s not a slam dunk. He played well for the Canes, but I don’t think anyone would say he was one of the top goalies in the league. He plays a high risk game and can be exposed like we saw in the Boston series.
As far as a backup goes I think if it’s not Nedeljkovic then it’s time to cut bait and trade him. I’m not sure what else he has to prove in the AHL at this point. The Canes have a few prospects that are in that position now. I think Fleury and maybe even Bean are at the point of either use them or trade them. Keeping them in the AHL is just wasting their value to the organization.
I would be very happy to see McElhinney back, but if all is well with Mrazek and Nedeljkovic I don’t see why he would be. If Mac is back I think he can play well over 20 games. Frankly, if you don’t think a guy can or should play more than 20 games in net you shouldn’t bother signing him.
I agree with you on Fleury – he is considered one of the better AHL d-men; if he doesn’t have a place here he would have value as a trade piece. He expressed frustration when he returned to CLT about not getting ice time. He wants to play and he has to play – he may have a better opportunity elsewhere and will probably do well there.
Bean, on the other hand, is finishing up his first professional season. Next season will be his first real season to see if his game is NHL-ready or NHL-close.
I think they’d be smart to attempt to bring back both Mrazek and Mac – but term matters a lot. For both players, these are huge next contracts given their careers and ages – I wouldn’t fault either for testing the market. I would want Mac for 1 year and Mrazek for 3 years. Then after next year, Ned is regular backup and hopefully challenging Mrazek for starts.
I think Mrazek has a tougher decision than Mac does. At most, Mac gets a 2-yr deal from someone at a nice bump – and I think he’s probably as good a 1b as can be reasonably found and maybe worth it.
On the other hand, this may be Mrazek’s one real chance to sign a larger deal with real term (4-5 yrs). That’s going to be tough to turn down no matter how much he likes it here and wants to come back, especially in a goalie market with few options past Bobs.
There is also the danger of thinking that the same team – or essentially the same team – can push further with another year of seasoning. I’m skeptical in that thinking. I tend to think that we’re not done tinkering more toward the core to really align the team with the deepest possible Cup run. I may be one here.
The odds of both coming back seem lower to me than to others.
It may be the time to give Ned a shot at real playing time.
I agree that it’s time to give Ned a real NHL audition or trade him.
I also think we often fall victim to the “same guys, = same results” mindset which is not always the case.
I think Mrazek/Ned combo makes the most sense for the upcoming season, even if of course I’m a bit worried how it will turn out (see Toronto and Sparks), but you have to either use or trade your players (totally agree on Bean and Fleury), you can’t let them over ripen in your farm system.
Will Ned be the next Gary Sparks (great AHL performance, significant NHL growing pains) or Matt Murry, (from freshman to pretty much cup winner in one season), we’ll just have to go forit and find out. Ned was the top AHL goalie and is not doing to bad in the playoffs either. He was drafted as the future franchise goalie and has managed to adjust at every level, even if he had to work for it.
Some day I’d like to know the whole Scott Darling saga, where it all went wrong (I think essentially he never wanted out of Chicago so he came in with the wrong attitude and things snowballed from there).
1) Given that Darling set the bar quite low for the previous season’s goaltending I would lean heavily on improved goaltending – say 80%?? But that doesn’t attempt to sell short the improved play of the blueline. Our ibability to trade Faulk last offseason proved fortuitous (and if you missed the press conference yesterday Waddell is going to approach Faulk’s agent about an extension). If Cam was the sole mark, it might be more 50-50. Having two goalies who could play well so one could step in for the other in the rotation, as you indicated early in the season (Mac) and late (Mrazek).
2) I don’t know if I like the 2-1/2 goalie approach. Both Petr and Mac would have like more ice time this past season. They are competitors – they don’t want to sit and watch games. The pressure will be on Ned in training camp and the preseason to show he can supplant whatever two goalies we have in addition to him. He certainly doesn’t have anything left to prove in the AHL.
3) I can say the real GM said yesterday – and that is he wants to bring both Mac and Peter back next season. I would not, however, make Ned the presumptive NHL backup even if only one of the M&Ms resign. That is a very tenuous position for a young player. He has to get reps that he won’t sitting tn the chair on game days with the Canes. It is hard to imagine that our goalies won’t lost time to injury- that is when Ned gets his chance. Isn’t that how Murray got moved up.
On a sidenote, I don’t really know how AHL goalies become NHL goalies – is there a usual pathway? Do they usually start as presumptive backups?, or do they get their opportunities because of injuries or deadline trades?
I don’t understand those who don’t like the idea of 3 goalkeepers.
In January of this year the Flyers were using the 7th goalkeeper they had used in the 2018-19 season. Last season the Vegas Golden Knights used 5. Chicago and Edmonton used more than 2 keepers last season.
So I think it is safe to say that having three goalies is at least a prudent idea.
I don’t know about the wisdom of letting go of a known commodity (Curtis) and bringing in an unknown. Last season Toronto decided they had too many keepers and put him on waivers. It wasn’t long before they were short on keepers.
I believe that Roddy and Willy have created a culture here of which players want to be a part. Don and Tom just might find a way to bring back our tandem. Ned is a virtual unknown at the NHL level. It will take a while for the team to develop trust and confidence in him.
We need to be very cautious in our decision making here.
GM Waddell’s statement that he wants to bring back both goalies should be taken with a grain of salt – he has to negotiate new contracts for all 3 goalie candidates so that statement gets him the most leverage.
I agree, the most likely outcome is Mrazek and Ned as our keepers.
I would prefer to see both Mac and Mrazek back. I personally think Mac is the better goalie but having two very capable guys who can give each other a rest is a great tandem to have. I can see letting Ned be in Charlotte and planned coming up to take a few games is good. This depends on who we can sign but even though Ned has nothing to prove at the AHL let that be home base next year.
I think our defense was definitely better and our goalies were better as well. I would not change our D. We really missed TVR when he went down. If we are holding Fleury back, trade him. He could still grow but the other 6 are at a different level. Bean had his first year. No reason to move him up yet. This is also why we did not need Fox. No guarantees he would have been any better then any of our 6. I am all in on extending Faulk.
We do not need much change. Young guys will only get more experienced and better. The only thing I would look for is if there was a massive scorer. We don’t need much and we have forward weapons in the AHL as well.
I have no idea what TD, RB and DW thoughts are but I do not think we need much. Maybe a PP/PK specialist. 🙂