Now almost exactly one third of the way through the 2016-17 and well into December, here are a couple different angles on the Hurricanes progress to date and prospects of breaking the 9-year playoff drought.
The simple math
If you adjust for games played by counting games in hand as 1 point, the Hurricanes are chasing the Philadelphia Flyers right now for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. By a pure points tally the Flyers are in third place in the Metropolitan Division, but that is largely because they have played 5 and 4 games more respectively than Washington and Columbus who are next in the points standings. My math says that the Flyers are 8 games above .500 compared to the Hurricanes being at exactly .500. The difference is 8 points if you adjust for games played. If you prefer to use the simple points tally, the answer is similar. By this math, the Hurricanes are 9 points behind Washington who would claim the final playoff spot.
The surging Metropolitan Division
What jumps out in perusing the standings is how well the Metropolitan Division. If the Hurricanes were entered in either the divisional chase in the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division or more broadly in the Western Conference standings, the Canes would be 1-3 points of a playoff spot depending on if/how one accounted for differences in games played.
Shorter version is that at least so far in 2016-17, the Metropolitan Division is by far the best division in hockey record-wise, and that hurts in terms of the Hurricanes current playoff positioning.
Projected math
In recent years, making the playoffs has generally required 95-96 points. By that estimation the Hurricanes are about 4-5 points behind schedule. If one uses my general rule of thumb that says the path to 95 points is to get two-thirds of the points at home and half of the points on the road, the situation looks slightly better. Because the Hurricanes’ schedule thus far has been road heavy (18 away versus 10 home), the Hurricanes are only 3 points off of a 95-point pace. The burning question is whether the red hot Metropolitan Division teams can continue their current pace that would push the required point total for a playoff berth north of 100 points.
Compared to 2015-16
Through 28 games, the Carolina Hurricanes are 4 points ahead of their 2015-16 pace that saw them 4 games below .500 at the same point in last season. This is encouraging in that the team did surge throughout the winter but seemed to be 3-5 points below where they needed to be to truly climb into the playoff chase. And this time last season, the Hurricanes were 9 points behind the final playoff spot, so it is disappointing that despite earning more points, the Hurricanes are only 1 point better off in terms of catching the eighth place team.
Is there reason for optimism that a surge and playoff contention is possible?
For those seeking (legitimate in my opinion) reason for optimism, I think 2 things are worth noting:
1) This is roughly the point in the season when the Hurricanes dialed it up a notch in 2015-16, so it is at least possible that the same happens again in 2016-17.
2) The Hurricanes have played more road games than any other team in the league so far – 18 road games against only 10 home games. The Hurricanes are 7-3 at home with 6 straight wins right now, so it is reasonable to believe that Bill Peters can coax more W’s out of home ice with the ability to control match ups.
Questions for debate
What say you Canes fans?
–Do you feel like the 2016-17 Hurricanes are in a better place than this time last season?
–Will the red hot Metropolitan Division revert back to a normal pace, or could it really take more than 100 points to finish fifth in the division and eighth in the Eastern Conference to win a playoff spot?
–Most significantly, will the Carolina Hurricanes still be playing hockey that matters in late March and early April?
Go Canes!
Better place but the eventual spot in the standings is highly dependent on getting above average goal tending. They’re getting that now, but with the lack of overall firepower the Canes are more dependent on their goalie than teams with the ability to score more goals. Again, nothing new or enlightening necessary, but with so many one goal games the goalie can’t hide. Have to find a way to get that extra point as well. One point pick-ups won’t do it in the end when they’re chasing so many teams. It can be done…
A few points –
1/ A few of these teams ahead of us have to cool off. Look at the current winning streaks: PHL 9, COL 6, PIT 5, WAS 4, NYR 3. Their Last-10 is just as strong. Eventually, some these teams are going to have to start losing. Root for regulation wins.
2/ It’s going to come down to how well we do on this extended run at home through the end of January. We have 14 home games and 8 on the road. It’s going to take ~32 points to legitimately climb back into the race. In other words, we have to get hot now.
3/ We have to get healthy and stay healthy. We played well in CA, and could/should have come away with at least one more point, but we really missed #11 and #16 the week before.
We’re a very tough out for any team. Somehow we have to start closing out games we lead in the 3rd period. I hope those extra points we should have gained in WIN, VAN, ANA, BOS, etc., don’t come back to haunt us. It seems like they already are.
I hope the San Jose and Anaheim games were not signs of Cam regressing back to his old ways.. Not that they were all on him, but the best goalies in the NHL come up with big saves when their team needs them, and he couldn’t seem to do so. Also… I’d like to see a real first line scorer added, but those don’t go on trees and definitely don’t come cheap. This team has to get some more firepower. I wouldn’t mind seeing Duchene or Landeskog pried away from Colorado, as long as Slavin, Faulk, and Hanifin are not involved.. But can’t help but think that to get a real difference maker one of them would have to be included along with probably a prospect or two. Also… Am I off-based for thinking Lindholm’s career arc may have just taken a huge hit with this injury? After a very slow start to the year his game was really coming along offensively, then with Staal’s injury he had the perfect opportunity to grab a leading role… Then he got hurt. Of course. Now who’s gonna be surprised when he’s right back to the early year version of himself.. I hope he can find his way and become a top-6 guy.
When I sort through the ups and downs of the entire season for Cam Ward, I think it neatly compartmentalizes into 2 things:
1) When the Hurricanes play decent in front of him and at least give him a chance, Ward has been stellar – better than whatever the league average would be.
2) When the Hurricanes are a mess defensively, Ward has not been able to help much. It is important to clarify that the majority of the mess was not his fault (especially in recent games), but I cannot help thinking just maybe it was possible to get another big save or 2 to make a difference.
I do not think this is too different from goalies across the league especially on good teams who generally see winnable games.
Agreed. Look at Philly’s run unbeaten run over the last nine games. Mason stole probably 3 games by himself when the defense was a complete mess. Even the back up rookie goalie posted a shut out against Detroit, with every player saying he was the best player on the ice. So out of the nine games won during their current streak, four were a direct result of the goaltender winning what should have been by most statistical measures, a loss. And that is even when he gave up 4 – 5 goals. We don’t see Ward “stealing” too many games for the Canes like that. It is a shame because he is playing really, really well but he isn’t the elite type of goalie that can bail you out when you need it the most. I think must of us that read this and other hockey blogs were saying this before the season started. If the Canes keep playing this type of (good) hockey, but playing on knife’s edge with most being one goal games, an elite goalie is a must to make it to the playoffs. Minimum 10 point difference during the course of a season and likely more.
Goaltending has not been the issue; Cam Ward is having a good season so far. Also, the statistics would seem to indicate that the Canes are very well coached. The PK is #1 in the league; we’re the least penalized team; FO% and PP are in the TOP one-third in the league. Not surprisingly, our Goal scoring (2.39/per game) and Shot % (8.2%) are both in the BOTTOM third in the league. The stats say that the Faulk/Hainsey defensive pairing is the worst (or very close to it) in the entire league from a plus/minus standpoint (minus 25 combined). Unless they improve we have a very slim chance to make the playoffs.