If you missed it yesterday, the Daily Cup of Joe article considered all of the trades and free agent signings and build a short list of ‘deals I would steal’ for the Hurricanes.
And I also fired an early strike against what will certainly not be the last of trade rumor/rumblings around Jordan Staal even if unfounded.
The Hurricanes top 9 forwards
My approach to building out forward lines is to first fill out a top 9 with the best players available. From a starting point that had 5-7 legitimate top 9 forwards when Francis took over, by my count the Hurricanes are now up to eight legitimate top 9 forwards – Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho, Justin Williams, Lee Stempniak and Teuvo Teravainen. That is not to say that other players cannot rise up and prove capable as top 9 forwards. In fact, that is exactly what should happen over time as young players develop and step into the lineup. But the eight are the set that I put above the cut line for being proven in an NHL role.
The upshot is that the Hurricanes still have one top 9 forward slot to fill either from within or outside the organization.
Building a fourth line
After building a top 9, next for me is to build a fourth line that considers simple ‘best player available’ but also a need to fill certain roles with penalty killing at the top of the list.
With the re-signing of Derek Ryan, the signing of Josh Jooris and now the trade for Marcus Kruger, the Hurricanes suddenly have an abundance of possibilities for the fourth line.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe and its companion Thursday Coffee Shop will both focus the Hurricanes depth forwards, what they bring to the table and where they might fit in the lineup.
Stopping the opponent from scoring
Marcus Kruger
I wrote Kruger up in much more detail when he was acquired on Tuesday, so I will be brief here. Though he centered the third line in Chicago, I view him as a very good fourth-line center for the Hurricanes. Kruger is light on offense and heavy on defense with the capability to center a good checking line that can hopefully hold its own starting in the defensive zone against scoring lines. He can also help the power play.
Josh Jooris
Similarly, I profiled Josh Jooris shortly after his acquisition less than a week ago. Jooris looks a bit like Kruger in that he definitely leans defense over offense, can play on the penalty kill but looks to slot as a fourth-liner based on limited offensive upside. As a player who can play center or right wing, Jooris brings some flexibility and another option for a right shot in the face-off circle if desired.
Joakim Nordstrom
Last but not least in the category of proven checking line forwards is familiar face Joakim Nordstrom. He has been a regular on the penalty kill and a solid player on a checking line of one variety or another for the past two years. In 2015-16, Nordstrom was a vital part of Jordan Staal’s checking line extraordinaire. In 2016-17 along with Viktor Stalberg, Nordstrom helped solidify a fourth line around Jay McClement that struggled during the previous season. The rap on Nordstrom if there is one is the same as the other players in this group. He had a meager 12 points in 82 games in 2016-17 which is on the light side even for a fourth-liner.
Still hoping for upside
Brock McGinn
The group of players competing for ice time in 2017-18 includes Brock McGinn. McGinn established himself as an NHL regular in 2016-17 and played much of the season in the top 9 to boot. He deserves credit for bring a Nathan Gerbe-like consistency in terms of every shift intensity level game in and game out. And though I would put him a notch below the three defensive players profiled above, McGinn did make progress in that regard from 2015-16 to 2016-17 which is important. The ‘firing on all cylinders’ or ‘putting it all together’ version of McGinn is a model for what you want in a fourth line forward. He is physical, aggressive and brings some jam. He is okay defensively. And he brings some scoring upside. McGinn’s 16 points in 57 games in 2016-17 is not significantly better than the players that I labeled as scoring lite. The burning question for McGinn and this group in general is whether he has another gear now with 78 NHL games under his belt or if it is a case of what you see is what you get.
Phil Di Giuseppe
Second verse same as the first. I am on record as liking Phil Di Giuseppe much more than the average. The reason is because I think he has developed into a very good forechecking and defensive forward, and I still think he has enough skill that there is another gear to be had offensively. Â He showed reasonable signs of it in 2015-16 when he played on the right side of Skinner/Rask, was pretty solid in that slot and collected a respectable 17 points in exactly half of a season (41 games) at the NHL level. But he failed to start out of the gate, at least scoring-wise, and found his way back to the AHL in 2016-17. Di Giuseppe is very similar to McGinn in that the low end of his range is that of a serviceable depth forward with decent defensive acumen and at least potentially untapped scoring upside.
Worth noting with Di Giuseppe is that he is qualified but not yet signed to a new contract. With 13 forwards already under contract, the possibility exists that Francis has only offered a two-way contract and that Di Giuseppe’s agent balked at it. It is also possible that a combination of Ron Francis and Di Giuseppe’s agent have been busy with other deals that have firmer deadlines. Regardless, he needs to be signed to officially enter the mix.
Aiming for depth scoring from the fourth line
Derek Ryan
Also under contract is Derek Ryan. Only a week ago, he looked to be a front-runner in a try out for the C4 slot and possibly the catalyst for a fourth line that scored a bit more. With the addition of Jooris followed by Kruger, it is not much less certain where Ryan fits into the plan. My reading of the tea leaves says that Jooris and Kruger represent a preference by Coach Bill Peters to build an old school, checking fourth line. If that proves to be correct and injuries do not open up other opportunities, Ryan is a candidate to compete for the final top 9 roster spot. If he loses that competition, he could fall all the way to #13 and ready depth from the press box. With 29 points in 67 games, if the team wants more scoring of the ‘I actually did it’ variety and not the ‘might be/could be’ potential variety, Ryan is the player who rises to the top.
Early rising for the next wave
Back before the re-signing of Ryan and the additions of Jooris and Kruger, the Hurricanes figured to have at least one if not more roster slots open for youth the seize with a strong training camp.
Though the volume of openings has certainly decreased and the competition increased, there is actually a chance that building out a strong checking fourth line actually makes for a really good opportunity for a young player with offensive upside. My reasoning is that Peters has a good fourth line that he trusts when the game is on the line in the third period to sit behind Jordan Staal’s line just maybe there is more room for a young scorer on the third line that can be emphasized or de-emphasized situationally.
At center, only a week ago many had Lucas Wallmark battling it out with Ryan for the C4 slot with Nicolas Roy and Janne Kuokkanen possibly as dark horses trying to rise up before their time.
In terms of scoring upside from the wing, Julien Gauthier and Aleksi Saarela are lurking behind McGinn and Di Giuseppe if they do not seize the opportunity soon. Warren Foegele‘s offensive ceiling might be a bit lower than Saarela or Gauthier’s, but he is another young player who could be a dark horse to make the 2017-18 opening day roster.
What are the roster battles and how does it all shake out?
Any discussion of picking roster slot winners for the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes should start by noting that the team does still have a need for more scoring. If one of the young guns blows the doors off in preseason and shows signs of being ready to regularly pot goals at the NHL level, all of the pre-made plans are immediately subject to being reevaluated.
But assuming no uprisings from the rookies, I think the most probable scenario goes like this:
* Francis/Peters forge further down the path that they already started down which is building a checking-focused fourth line. That line seems almost certain to be centered by Kruger (if he does not climb into the C3 slot…blech) and also to include at least one if not both of Jooris and Nordstrom.
* I peg Ryan as the current front-runner (assuming no other signings) to win the final top 9 roster slot, but this is also where Di Giuseppe, McGinn or a young gun from the next wave could come into play.
* This is a bit of a wild card could be trading one of Di Giuseppe and/or McGinn if they do not rise up in preseason, it could make sense to part ways with one to clear the logjam at forward and collect value in the form of a draft pick before it evaporates over time like happened with Ryan Murphy.
The hope is to steer the conversation into the Thursday Coffee Shop post, so we have it all in one place, but if someone gets excited and comments here instead, they still get full credit. 🙂
Go Canes!
I think Ryan is a near lock to be the 3C. Peters has been quoted twice this summer saying he really liked the Skinner/Ryan/Stempniak line at the end of the year last year and it is a baseline for what he will do in the fall. Unless one of the youth or Kruger comes into camp and blows the doors off, I’d bank on Ryan as your final top 9 forward.
Hello Matt, I just wanted to say I have been a long time lurker but first time poster. However, seeing the quality of the hockey discussion increase over time has led me to join the party.
I agree with the above poster, it seems Ryan is the lock to be the final top 9 forward. Yet, don’t you guys feel that with that lineup we are going to once again finish on the outside looking in? I don’t see enough scoring from the lineup that boasts a ‘traditional checking line’ alongside Derek Ryan and Lee Stempniak in the top 9. I figured that the scoring would improve because the roster would gain scoring forwards (so far just J Williams) which might force Ryan or Stempniak into being an above-average 4th liner. I will do a quick goal total, and unlike many I refuse to work on the assumption that any players will ‘increase’ their goal total from last year. So conservative model would say:
Terevainen (15) – Staal (16) – Lindholm (11)
Skinner (37) – Ryan (11) – Stempniak (16)
Aho (24) – Rask (16) – Williams (24)
Nordstrom (7) – Kruger (5) – Jooris (3 in not full games)
Mcginn (7 not in full games)
Slavin (5) – Pesce (2)
Hanifin (4) – Faulk (17)
Dahlbeck/Fleury/Carrick (2) – TVR (5)
Total = 227 Goals For.
So many years as a Canes fan I can remember fooling myself into thinking the playoffs were going to happen because we would all do our projections but they would assume things like players would progress, lack of injuries etc. I wanted to show the goal scoring conservatively to clearly state that there is quite a strong chance that given that regression occurs in both directions, simply adding Justin Williams and replacing our 4th liners STILL leaves the Canes short on offense. I do believe that certain players like Lindholm will score more than 11 goals next season, however I could also foresee a player like Aho scoring LESS goals than his rookie season, I could see Justin Faulk scoring less goals than last year, etc.
Overall, with the Metro division improving (Philly, Columbus, New Jersey), I think the Canes should be planning not to becoming ‘good enough’, but we have to keep in sight that we have to PASS these teams in front of us, and to pass these teams we are a lot further away than we might think, despite the encouraging process of the rebuild. I saw somebody comment that Nashville and Columbus made the playoffs without any star forwards, so why couldn’t we? Our forward depth doesn’t even hold a candle to those teams yet in my opinion.
If we are accepting Derek Ryan returning to centre the third line, then we are setting our standards too low. I can easily see him becoming this years Diguiseppe. He looked fine last year, and his scoring rates were good, but if he falls off a cliff production wise this year (which i’m thinking is more likely than him becoming a 40 pt player over 80 games), we have no viable replacement in the top 9.
Friendly reality check.
Welcome 50 mission, thanks for your input (military??). You covered most of the things I planned to, I’ve been trying to explain why I think the team is weak (for a couple years), but it’s a hard sell! It’s backwards to plan the 4th line before deciding the top 3…and it’s anyone’s guess what they are…?
We definitely need another CENTER WHO CAN EITHER SCORE OR INITIATE SCORING!
Unfortunately the priorities of the team (and most of the folks here) is centered around saving money!
I could expand on this, and suggest good additions that could be acquired, but I’m sure the response would be WE CAN’T AFFORD HIM…!!!
I agree with puckgod. Spot on.
I can’t argue with most of what RF has done this off-season, I especially like the gamble on Darling. The Ryan re-signing I hated, but the rest were fine. The team is better this year than last year for sure. However, there is a glaring hole at 1C.
If this team is so desperate to make the playoffs this year, why is everyone OK with another year of spending to the cap floor, and getting outspent by $15-$20M per year by just about every other team we compete against? Poor RF continues to fight with one hand tied behind his back. We need Karmanos to either spend some money or to finally sell the team and get an owner who is committed (financially) to trying to field a contender. Until something changes, I will continue to spend my entertainment dollars elsewhere.
I think the lines are tentatively set as:
Aho/Staal/Lindholm
Teravainen/Rask/Williams
Skinner/Ryan/Stempniak
Nordstrom/Kruger/Jooris
McGinn/DiGiuseppe
Slavin/Pesce
Hanifin/Faulk
Fleury/Van Riemsdyk
Dahlbeck
Darling
Ward
With that said, I see two or three camp battles. I don’t see either wing on the 4th line as a shoe in. I think both Nordstrom and Jooris will be competing for jobs (although, if they perform up to their skill level, they should easily win them). Then I also see, as Matt does, something of a battle for the 3C spot. Yes, Peters did say he liked the Skinner/Ryan/Stempniak line last season, but he’s also said that he runs the team on merit, and the best player will get the ice time. I could easily see Wallmark competing with Ryan for that 3C role.
Remember, Peters also doesn’t like putting skilled scorers on his 4th line. So if Wallmark proves to be more adept at that role, Ryan very well could find his way to the press box.
As far as limited scoring, I think that the addition of Williams and continued development of Aho and Teravainen will both bring up our goal totals. I also see more scoring from the back end as both Slavin and Hanifin continue to move forward. If Justin Faulk can stay healthy for the full season he could pot even more himself. The key number to me is 235 goals. That should get us in to the playoffs. Anything above that and we improve our odds. Anything below that and we’ll struggle.
Hello NotOpie,
My response was not to guess the line combos but to illustrate the goal totals. I agree that 235-240 is a key number of goals to reach. Having seen the goal totals I posted from last year, don’t you think going from 227 to 240 accounting for all sorts of regression seems a bit unlikely? I’m certainly not sold on upward progression from ALL of terevainen, aho, Lindholm, and Rask. I also doubt that the NET increase between all 4 of them ends up being something like 10 goals (probably closer to 0-6 goals). I see Aho playing better next year, but scoring less as teams figure out how to defend him better.
While I think the best route to solidifying the offense is to add 1 top 6 forward (preferably a centreman), I see that this is difficult and I am not comfortable parting with any of our top 4 dmen. Therefore, I can see the rest of the offense being generated by maybe 1 more depth signing, but if Francis has patience not to spend more than a 1 year contract on depth scoring (which would be fine with me), I fear the Canes will miss the playoffs again and scoring will be the #1 reason.
fiftymissioncap and notopie. Thanks for getting this discussion off to a good start.
I too had mentioned 235 as a significant number for 17-18. By my estimates (and fmc I like to think I am not guessing so much as projecting, which we do almost every day in the business world and always with a view toward realistic growth and success–so why not for the Canes organization) that number is well within reach.
Based on possible line pairings:
Aho (30)/Staal (18)/Lindholm (17)–65 goals
Teravainen (18)/Rask (20)/Williams (17)–55 goals
Skinner (30)/Ryan (15)/Stempniak (15)–60 goals
Jooris (7)/Kruger (6)/Nordstrom (7)–20 goals
Slavin (6)/Pesce (4)–10 goals
Hanifin (5)/Faulk (16)–21 goals
Fleury (1)/TVR (5)–6 goals
Total 237 goals
Aho–based on the fact that his goal scoring started really slow, he was on 30-goal pace 2nd half of 16-17
Staal–likely to get a goal or two more due to improved PP (Williams addition)
Lindholm–like Aho started really slow, also should benefit from Williams on PP
Teravainen–shown progression first two years, so 3-goal improvement is reasonable
Rask–regression to the mean as his shooting % went way down last season
Williams–projecting fewer than he scored since Capitals are just more goal-oriented in general
Skinner–he was unreal last 20 or so games, 30 in 17-18 seems realistic
Ryan–his 82-game equivalent last year was 13, so 15 is reasonable for full season with Skinner and Stempniak
Stempniak–consistently around 15
Jooris–7 is his career average for 82 games
Kruger–6 is his career average for 82 games
Nordstrom–same as 16-17
D scoring–Almost the same as last year except 1 more for Slavin (he was much more offensive in 2nd half, 2 more for Peace (he seems to mirror Slavin only one year behind), 1 more for Hanifin as he should benefit from consistent partner.
I believe this is all reasonable. Yes Aho, Teravainen, and Lindholm all improve, but given their ages and how they played in the 2nd half plus likelihood that PP gets marginally better, justifiable.
Staal and Rask “regress” upward to their own means.
Skinner and Williams “regress” downward.
Yes I am an optimist. But these numbers also make sense.