Who knew…It’s a busy Carolina Hurricanes hockey week in late June.
With prospect camp pulled in and the free agent frenzy still on the way, there is a lot to talk about on the Hurricanes hockey front. For the first prospect camp practice, check out my initial thoughts on a few key players HERE.
The Thursday Coffee Shop will also be up by late morning on Thursday possibly even with two separate discussions – one on the prospect camp and the other on free agency.
This article aims to do a reasonably deep dive on the possibility of adding a difference-making forward via free agent with things still quiet on the trade front. I actually waded into this on more direct level on Wednesday when I discussed the possibility of Patrick Marleau. (Early in the day Craig Custance from The Athletic-Detroit included the Hurricanes in a list of teams who might have interest in Marleau.)
Pros and cons of adding via the free agent pool
Though Patrick Marleau is only one player and probably even an unlikely one, the option of going the free agent route over a trade is an interesting one. The cons include the fact that premium free agent signings are historically overpriced. Term for 30+ year old players is often too long at best and utterly ridiculous at worst, and to win a bidding war usually requires paying too much. In addition, I am not sure there is really a pure version of that I think the Hurricanes need available via free agency which means possibly settling for a player who is less than ideal. But despite the list of cons, there is one who pro which is that free agents do not require the Hurricanes to give up players and or prospects to upgrade. Â Especially for the 2017-18 season before the Hurricanes encounter a couple waves of new contracts, Francis could actually have a nice bit of budget to spend. Could he overpay in salary and in the process get a player on a one-year deal?
Fit for what the Hurricanes need
In considering the free agent options that do not exactly meet my initial requirements, I run the risk of not heeding my own warning and instead falling victim to being distracted by and chasing ‘shiny stuff.’
The risk of settling for good but not the best options available is of course that the Hurricanes come up short in trying to make the 2018 playoffs. The upside is that the team keeps as much of its future upside intact as possible.
My original target was a playmaking center. When I look through the 2017 unrestricted free agent list, little jumps out. Joe Thornton would fit the bill but after coming off major knee surgery and turning 38 before the start of the 2017-18 season, he seems really risky. And even if he checked out health-wise, he seems likely to either stay in San Jose, sign a cheap deal with a clear Cup contender (if he ends up in Pittsburgh, I’ll….!) or rake a highest bidder over the coals for a really risky three or four-year deal for too much money for his age.
Sam Gagner is interesting for a short-term fix. He is coming off of a very good 2016-17 campaign in Columbus that saw him in a slightly lesser role but still scoring an impressive 50 points with only 13:43 of ice time per game.
And that is really about all I see in terms of top 6 or at least top 6-ish playmaking centers who will be available when the free agent market opens on Saturday.
But “you can’t always get what you want”
Quoting the Rolling Stones, “You can’t always get what you want, but if you try…sometimes you find…you get what you need.” There is a smart contingent in the coffee shop that is significantly less fixated on adding a center and is either is just more flexible or even just prefers a scoring wing.
If one looks at the free agent list considering wings who could help, the list obviously expands. In my opinion, the options are better at for the wing position. Could a good plan B be to add a scoring right wing and intending to play Teravainen between the new right wing and Sebastian Aho? Though it is not my preferred way of doing it, the potential is there to boost scoring this way.
The options are more plentiful in this regard.
Former-Hurricane Justin Williams could be an interesting addition who brings some scoring but also another big dose of locker room leadership and success.
Patrick Sharp is another veteran with both a scoring and Cup-winning history.
I do not see the Hurricanes bidding for and/or winning Alexander Radulov or Radim Vrbata, though either could also add scoring punch.
Might a player like Sharp or Williams who already has his name etched on the Stanley Cup and who is near the end of his career take a one-year deal at a premium salary instead of taking less money for more years?
The decision at hand
The basic decision for Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis could become whether he wants to overpay in terms of futures to land the ideal pay or instead pay nothing in terms of futures to upgrade the offense even if not in the maximum way possible.
I have laid out a detailed requirements list for one difference-maker addition, and I think there is significant risk in making only adding only a modest upgrade at the forward position. But at the same time, part of me is on board with Francis plan to build a sustainable winner fueled by a regular supply of young players emerging from the system. That part of me is not in the “at all costs” camp in terms of adding a forward.
Could the free agent market spur the trade market?
As I touched on briefly in my article about Patrick Marleau, the potential for teams to add pretty good players via free agency has the potential to pressure Sakic to drop his asking price for his allegedly available forwards and even feel some pressure to do a deal to avoid losing the game of musical chairs and being shut out in the process.
Who knows exactly what is going on behind the scenes (I stand by my article from last Saturday as one possibility.), but a day or two before the opening of the free agent market could be another good time to give Avs general manager Joe Sakic a call to see how he is holding up in terms of stubbornness in his demands.
What say you Canes fans?
My tentative plan is to launch a special free agent frenzy Coffee Shop set of polls and discussion questions related to free agency on either Friday or Saturday, but feel free to also chime in here.
Which, if any, of the free agent center options do you like? Which do you think the Hurricanes could actually win?
What are your thoughts on adding right wing not center? And which of the right wings do you like?
Go Canes!
1/ I like Marleau (he plays C too) and Gagner the best of the options. Marleau because he is reliably productive and stays healthy. He’s one of these guys who might play into his mid-40s ala Chelios etc. and stay productive. Ganger because he had a rebound year, regained his confidence, and is at an age where 4 years isn’t too long. I doubt we’ll win Marleau for the obvious reasons; I think we have as good a shot as anyone with Gagner: we’re a lot like the CMB team he’d be leaving and he’d have a more important role so we have more to sell to a guy like him – that may be appealing to him.
2/ I don’t think there are any good realistic options at RW. Sharp and Williams going to be overpaid and are Cup-chasing. Radulov is looking for term. Vbata is interesting but I don’t think we’ll land him. Then you get down to options like Versteeg, who was serviceable at the time when in CAR, but who would seem like a step backwards in many ways.
I like the thought of using our pursuit of a high-end UFA as a negotiating tactic with COL/MON/whoever, but it only works if the other team believes we can actually land the UFA we want, not just woo him. I have questions whether we’ll pass this test.
I stand by my prior statements on the trade market opening up again. Joe Sakic simply cannot do nothing (though maybe he can). Marc Bergevin isn’t finished. I look at DET and wonder what Ken Holland is doing; what a mess. MIN, ANA, BOS, TOR, WAS: I don’t think the UFA market has what these teams really need either, and I suspect they are highly motivated to improve, too. There is less time, for sure, but plenty of offseason left for movement.
Matt. While I have strong opinions, I freely admit that my in-depth knowledge is quite limited. I have probably seen all the players involved ten times apiece or less. So I won’t categorically state that Thornton would work or Williams is the perfect missing piece.
I am a big fan of the current Canes team and would like to see them win. But I want them to keep winning for the next decade. I truly believe they have the core to do just that. My main point of concern is that if Carolina acquires MacKinnon or his ilk with a $5M+ contract for multiple years, then something is going to have to give. The math is not going to allow the organization to keep Slavin, Peace, Hanifin, Lindholm (signing next year), Aho, Skinner, Teravainen (who many of us think will score 55 points this season or next) over the next two years.
Without going into details, the market seems to have valued the D around $4.5M each. If Lindholm has a 50+ point season, he will probably cost $4M or so. The same will probably be true for Teravainen. Aho could be significantly more. If Skinner has two more 30 goal seasons, then $7.5M might be the best the Canes can hope for.
My point is that as much as Carolina needs more goals in 17-18, the organization needs to sign a player to a two-year deal so the cap math works.
My personal opinion (of course it is not my money) is that it is fine to “overpay” Thornton, Marleau, Williams to get them to agree to 2 years. I think $5M per might work. But I am really just guessing.
CT, some thoughts on payroll. The Canes are going to need to spend $3 million to $5 million to get to the salary floor. They also need a top 6 scorer of some sort (or maybe 2 middle 6 guys). We won’t be as competitive as we need to be in an ever improving Metro.
That said, I understand the concerns about salary cap issues that may be pending a few years down the road. Given an assumption of market signings of the 4 RFAs for next season (not counting Nordstrom and Murphy), the Canes won’t be in cap trouble, but they will have to spend closer to the ceiling than the floor. By my calculations they probably spend about $4 million under the cap by 2019-20 and only about $2 million under in 2020-21 (but the CBA negotiations may screw that pooch regardless). That’s what it will take…however we should be a regular playoff team by then so the ownership should not feel the pinch quite as much.
Ahhhhhh….the chicken and egg as it relates to hockey and profits. I remember reading a few years ago that almost all NHL teams lose money in the regular season, and only turn a profit if they make the playoffs. As they say (whoever “they” is), you have to spend money to make money. There is a financial investment required to achieve on-ice success and reap the rewards. Free agents present opportunities to enhance the product by only giving up dollars over some term but not depleting the existing talent base. A more aggressive owner may, as an example, pay Gagner $4 million over a short, maybe 3 yr. term and get a pretty good forward capable of playing both center and wing and providing power play expertise. Instant upgrade. Yes, a bit over paid but for the term the Canes can live with it to move the needle closer to the playoffs. The key is the term. No more than 3 years for any player and specifically anyone over 30 – 31 years old no matter how well they are playing currently. Unfortunately there are always suckers out there willing to pay a lot of money over long terms for guys who only have a couple of years – at best – left in the tank.
Most of the desired UFAs want – and correctly so – as much money as they can make for as long as they can make it. In the short-term, I am less concerned about money than term. Overpay for 2 or 3 years – if the internal budget allows – until our young offense matures. We have some outstanding forwards in the pipeline right now. The catch is finding someone who will accept short-term overpayment – and I really don’t think the better UFAs will. There already is a premium we need to pay players because we are Carolina and because of the playoff drought. Ultimately, I think it is how do we make Carolina a preferred destination – it is certainly possible; Scott Darling proved that.
So I think in the end we don’t get the higher end UFAs. We will be looking at second tier, at best – those are the guys who will sign the 1- and 2-year deals.
Quality down the center will have to come from internal development and creative trading, whether cap-based or some multiple-partner deal where everyone involved gets a piece of what they want.
Somebody said (I think ct) that guys that are near the end of their careers really want to be on a team ready to run for the cup. We are not that (yet). I can see guys like Joe Thornton or Patrick Marleau taking less dollars to stay where they are at. I am not sure they would entertain coming to the Hurricanes. Its more then just money at this point in their career, it is where you want to be.
I suggested Sam Gagner a long time ago. The point that was made back is that last season was the first time he really broke out and may not repeat. So, it scaled me back a little on that opinion.
All the real top centers we talked about required trades for our D. I kind of think that is off the table but you never know. So I have not really felt that as a viable option.
Williams or Sharp could be good. Radulov or Vrbata nice as well but history has said RF just does not spend money, even when he needs to. I hope we get a forward but it may be another summer where we do not add what we need.
Sakic is in dreamland and any trade there would require a top D. Not a trade partner IMO.
I have avidly followed these posts since the end of the season (need my daily hockey fix) and have agreed with most of them. However, I think we may be missing the motivations of GMRF. Currently we are last in attendance of the 30 teams which played last season. In order to get the top free agents we will need to put alot more people in the seats at PNC. So looking at past history will GMRF instead of going after a top Free Agent extend some of the contracts which expire next year? Remember what he did for Lindholm when he had one year left on his entry level deal. If he takes that route, I think he will concentrate on some lower tier free agents which could slot in for the next year or so. I would also like to see the discussion on how we fill out or current lines. We have some pairing which seem to work, like Skinner/Rask and Aho/Stall/Lindholm. Do we go after a mid tier free agent at RW to fill out the Rask line? With Derek Ryan slotted as the 3rd or 4th line center who do we slot in the other spot? Who do we put as their wings? Do we let TT, Lindholm or Aho fill out the 3rd line as center in the early part of the season and move them up over time? These are the things I think GMRF is thinking about. What are my current pieces and how do I suppliment them with BUDGET players? From past history I don’t think we will make a big splash in the Free Agent market but could do it with trades but that could cost us some desirable futures we really don’t want to lose. Remember GMRF philoshopy is to build from within only supplimenting what is not available in the system.
Boogabob…Welcome to the asylum…errr, I mean support group…errrr, I mean Coffee Shop. Great to have another set of ideas and opinions added to the discussion!
NEVER RADULOV. I’ve been enjoying my summer break from the discussion, but I figured I’d throw that giant warning out there, because Radulov is Semin Jr. You guys are doing great this summer, looking forward to talking hockey with you all again in the near future.
Good to see you pop in! Was starting to wonder if you got all swept up in the Kariya HOF thing, canceled your Darling jersey order and went back to the Ducks. 🙂
As has been mentioned above (and numerous times before by me), it takes money to make money…if RF repeats his miserly ways…we won’t have ANY TEAM to watch or talk about…
It’s unlikely 2nd or 3rd tier acquisitions will move the needle enough to put this team in the playoffs.
Yes, if miraculous things happen with TT, Lindy, and others…
they all excel, then that would be awesome, but planning on HOPE instead of improving the team…IS NOT WISE.
MY short list of possible additions Marleau, Bonino, Gagner…
The trade options (all seem to require losing a top4 Dman) should NOT BE CONSIDERED, baring something VERY HIGH END!
I’d give Bean, maybe McKeown, possibly Fleury (if necessary)…
In other words…unlikely…….
Oh yeah, welcome BOOGABOB…Keep coming back.
It’s nice to hear different ideas…even if they make mine seem…shall we say STUP….Errrr less informed/ BRILLIANT?
I just read an article that said former Cane Viktor Stalberg is being courted a team in the Swiss league. I think it would be great to re-add him to the mix for his PK play and strong play on the 4th-line, as well as his veteran presence on a young team.
I don’t think Stalberg is in the cards although I really liked him on the team. I just don’t see the room. The re-signing of McGinn filled out our bottom line (Nordstrom/Ryan or Wallmark/McGinn). As much fun as Stalberg was to watch, you don’t want him in your top 9. No we’re still one or two scorer’s shy.
Columbus just bought out Scott Hartnell, likely opening up room to sign Gagne. Options for any free agent signings are dwindling.