I promised myself that I would not fully dive into building the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes lineup until June, but Ron Francis started early by acquiring and signing Scott Darling, so I might as well start a day early too.
The starting point is figuring out what the team needs to improve over the 2016-17 campaign and push up into the playoffs.
Three long years gradually building depth
This exercise is significantly different than the past couple years. Especially before the 2014-15 season the holes were numerous, and Francis was very much in long-term rebuilding mode anyway. Francis’ mindset was mostly to be patient and restock the prospect pool (which he did) and opportunistically make a few additions. Starting at the 2014-15 season and a lineup that would need to include at least three from Riley Nash, Chris Terry, Nathan Gerbe, Patrick Dwyer and Andrej Nestrasil in the top 9 forwards, Francis mostly stood pat.
Looking at a similar situation before the 2015-16 season, Francis opportunistically added Kris Versteeg as short-term top 9 help on the cheap while mostly sticking to the task of rebuilding the prospect pool. But magic struck that season when after adding Noah Hanifin in the 2015 NHL draft, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce parachuted almost directly into the NHL out of college and either started in or rose into top 4 slots. At this point, the time frame of the rebuild pulled in and the potential to make the playoffs increased.
But the summer before the 2016-17 season was mostly more of the same. Francis made a nice long-term addition in the form of Teuvo Teravainen, struck gold with 2016 second-rounder Sebastian Aho and added scoring depth by signing free agent Lee Stempniak. But those moves mostly just filled holes left when Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg left at the previous trade deadline. In adding Stempniak, Teravainen and Aho to the forward mix, the team became deeper offensively and it showed with the team finishing with seven forwards with 40 or more points.
And with no significant losses to free agency, the Hurricanes will enter the off-season already a much deeper team than it was at this time in previous three summers under Ron Francis.
A different game for the summer of 2017
Because the Hurricanes are closer and have built decent depth both at the NHL level and also below in the prospect pool, the game is significantly different for Ron Francis this summer.
Francis’ first three summers as general manager mostly focused on adhering to the principle of patience and then opportunistically making a couple improvements on the cheap. The holes were plentiful enough that Francis did not need to get bogged down with adding a specific skill set or type of player. He just needed more higher-end players capable of playing in the top 9 in the NHL.
So those who have rightfully appreciated Francis’ opportunistic style might be inclined to enter the summer of 2017 with a big list of good players who could theoretically help and then look for the best deals.
But in my opinion, the Hurricanes are past that. They more specifically need a handful of more targeted players who address specific weaknesses and in the process boost the team more than chucking minor upgrades of #8 type forwards to replace #9 or #10 type forwards or just add depth.
Identifying and prioritizing needs
Entering the summer of 2017, my targeted and prioritized list of needs was as follows:
1) An upgrade at the goalie position
The Hurricanes were significantly below the league average by just about any metric imaginable (again) for the 2016-17 season. Adding a goalie capable of being at least league average and ideally even better represented the biggest upgrade possible through a single roster position.
Francis addressed this need first when he acquired the right to negotiate with pending unrestricted free agent Scott Darling for a third-round draft pick and then was able to get him signed. With this upgrade completed and only a third-round draft pick spent to do so, Francis has some dry powder in the form of draft picks that he can now use for the next priorities.
2) Adding a top 6 scoring forward capable of (IMPORTANT) driving offense not just being a complementary player
My math says that the Hurricanes are 7 deep for sure in terms of top 9 forwards (Aho, Tervainen, Staal, Lindholm, Skinner, Rask, Stempniak) with a few higher-end forward prospects capable of rising up early and a few other depth forwards who have the potential to be serviceable in a top 9 slot.
There is a case to be made for incrementally boosting the team’s scoring by improving the last 3-4 forwards. But as I wrote in a comment recently, there is a limit to boosting depth scoring. The last three forwards are always going to get less ice time than the top 3-6 forwards, and more significantly, there really are only 6 forward power play slots. (And putting forwards on the points can boost forward scoring, but it is largely at the expense of decreasing defensemen scoring at that point.) Put more simply, there is a fairly low ceiling for how much one can expect even from a good player playing in a #10-12 slot because of ice time issues.
With a limited number of roster spots and bullets to be fired by Francis adding players this summer, the second biggest bang he can get for his buck is adding a top 6 forward who is capable of 55+ points and equally importantly capable of helping boost his two line mates to higher totals too.
When I think about the Hurricanes’ forwards right now, I think of it as three sets of two. Aho/___, Staal/Lindholm and Skinner/Rask with Stempniak and Teravainen being capable top 9 forwards who would slot wherever they fit best. Certainly, the combinations will shift as the long NHL season wears on, but thinking of the lineup like that builds out three solid lines with slightly different roles and keeps the offense reasonably balanced. With an ‘offensive catalyst’ type center, I think Aho’s scoring ceiling jumps at least into the 60s potentially giving the Hurricanes three 60-point scorers (Aho, addition, Skinner) spread across two lines. Staal/Lindholm makes two-thirds of a line that can play to Staal’s strength of eating up as many of the minutes against the other teams’ best as possible. The line will score some too, but that is not the primary measure of their success. And keeping Skinner with Rask creates a second scoring line for which Peters can cherry pick favorable match ups against lesser lines and defense pairings. Unless Skinner really clicks with a newly-added player, Rask continues to be a good fit for him as a strong read/react and positional player who does not need to play with the puck on his stick to be effective like many centers prefer.
3) Adding one more defenseman
With the departure of Ron Hainsey and a small collection of remaining depth defensemen who were ‘meh’ at best in 2016-17, Francis will need to add one more proven defenseman.
What he is able to do given market circumstances for #2 is at the top of my summer watch list, but more so what Francis decides to do with #3 is also pretty high on my list.
The optimistic view has Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce anchored into the top 4 somewhere doing exactly what they did in 2016-17 maybe with just a bit more offense. The second half of the top 4 requires cherry picking only the best chunk of 20-30 games from Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin’s 2016-17 seasons and then counting on both to reproduce that for much closer to 82 games. If that does not happen, right now there is no one with NHL experience who would qualify as a reasonably probable plan B to fill out the top 4.
While it is definitely possible that Hanifin and Faulk pick up where they left off at the end of the 2016-17 season and grow from there, betting the 2017-18 season on going two for two on those bets with no other option is much more risky than most think.
There is a pretty decent list of serviceable #5-#7 type defenseman available this summer which should keep the price reasonable and the trade cost probably at nothing (can just shop free agent market) for that category of defenseman. That would probably be enough to provide depth and build out the bottom pairing with some veteran help fairly likely to play alongside rookie Haydn Fleury. But I am of the mind to spend more, even trade futures if necessary to add short-term help more in the form of a player capable of stepping into the top 4 if needed. I am all for Hanifin getting first try at the #4 slot next to Faulk and remaining there if he proves capable like he did for the tail end of the 2016-17 season. But I am not a fan of inking Hanifin into that slot with not other options and without consideration for whether it is working. The last time the Hurricanes bet a top 4 slot on a young player coming off a short end of year run looking capable was Jamie McBain heading into the 2010-11. After looking absolutely phenomenal for 14 games at the end of the 2009-10 season (no really, go look at his numbers and check some game recaps), he crashed hard in the same role to start the next season.
So personally, my ideal blue line addition has a ton of parameters. I want a proven veteran capable of stepping into the top 4 if necessary or otherwise being injury depth for that slot while providing stability, possibly with a rookie partner, for the third pairing. Ideally, this player is a left shot but is the chameleon-type who can play on his off side without a major fall off. (Note this would be necessary to slot next to Fleury on the third pairing.) Finally, with youth rising up, such a player ideally has a one-year term on his contract or two at the most.
4) Picking up a depth player or two
Depending on what is left for budget, Francis could choose to selectively and inexpensively add another depth player or two. With the departure of Ron Hainsey, the team will need one more penalty-killer on the blue line and with the departure of Jay McClement (if not re-signed) and Viktor Stalberg, the team is also down two of its forward penalty killers from before the trade deadline.
Though it is not a must, I could see Francis adding a player like Stalberg if the price and terms are right.
Balancing pinpoint focus with market realities
The hardest part in this exercise could be striking a balance between having a pinpoint focus on what the team needs to add with staying at least close to reasonable in terms of market realities. By no means am I suggesting that Francis should take the cheap way out, but there is a price where he should revert to a lesser plan B. Joe Sakic allegedly wanted a first round pick a roster defenseman and a couple more futures for Matt Duchene last winter. If that is the going rate for Duchene and any comparable true C1, then I would begrudgingly consider shopping from the next tier.
To put real names to it. I think Duchene is a legitimate C1 and a great addition. I think Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a scoring center but a borderline C1/C2 who is not in the same tier as Duchene. But if salary dump necessity drops Nugent-Hopkins price to only a second-round pick and Duchene really costs Hanifin, first-round pick and another prospect, I suddenly like Nugent-Hopkins much more and become more willing to gamble with a little bit less for 2017-18 offensive fire power for the 2017-18 season.
That said, especially for the fan base, there is going to be a fine line between accepting lesser grades of the right kind of player for a role versus considering players who just are not the right type. In the depth role for $1.5 million the range of potential options increases, but regardless of how good a player is at the role, I have almost know interest in defense-first/two-way type forwards in the $3 million plus salary range. That budget needs to be invested in something as close to possible as scoring upside not another forward who is in the ‘provides modest depth scoring’ category.
What say you Hurricanes hockey fans?
Do you agree with my top three priorities (counting the goalie position) and my ranking of them?
Do you have any other needs on your list?
How much is enough for a defenseman add? Am I the only one who wants to have a plan B for the top 4?
Would you consider adding 1-2 depth players at all, or would you prefer to hold this ice time for the youth?
Go Canes!
Matt. Top three priorities make sense.
Still, I think you have provided the basis for a more holistic approach the past 6 weeks or so, but are not taking it.
What I mean is that you have written about analytics, yet the above doesn’t really express how the team’s needs can be met from with the help of analytics.
For instance you state: “(And putting forwards on the points can boost forward scoring, but it is largely at the expense of decreasing defensemen scoring at that point.)” I am not sure this is true. The analytics indicate that using 4 forwards significantly improves power play scoring. If the PP % goes up, it is highly likely that Faulk and Hanifin will get more assists, thus D scoring increases.
Along those lines, I think there is a case that the most important metric might be PIM. I haven’t played with the data, but my guess is the best way to value a player is something like this:
Even strength +/- plus [(PIM of opponents while on ice minus PIM of own team) x .18].
That impacts both which forwards and D-men to add. I totally agree that the forward add needs to be capable of 20+ goals. I think 235 goals in 17-18 is about the number that makes the playoffs a high probability. So if the scorer is a winger, then it makes perfect sense to add one more C of the $3 million two-way type. It might even make sense to re-sign Ryan as he clicked with Skinner and Stempniak.
Carolina is not going to replicate Crosby/Malkin nor McDavid/Draisaitl. What is encouraging is that both Ottawa and Nashville were similar to the Canes in that there success is driven by a strong blueline. With another scoring option, Peters’ style of hockey has a great chance to succeed.
As far as D–this is where I think PIM is most important. The offense from the D is likely to be from Faulk and Hanifin (with a little uptick from Pesce or Slavin) no matter who is added. Two UFAs that might make sense are Hunwick or Quincey. I would prefer Hunwick because he historically takes significantly fewer penalties.
Finally, I don’t mean to contradict a coach who obviously knows tons more, but in watching some of the World Championships I kept thinking Aho is a smaller version of Backstrom. At some point he may be the C that is needed in the lineup.
235 goals is 20 more goals than we scored last season. All things remaining the same that would have put us at #12 in the league in “goals for”. It would have also put us comfortably in the playoffs (assuming a 1 to 4 or 1 to five wins to goals scored ratio).
It’s not that difficult to assume that we’ll play about the same on defense, have a minor upgrade in net (I’d hope for a major one, but I’ll believe it when I see it), and have a couple of the guys put up a few more goals. Adding a 50-60 point guy will easily get us to the additional 20 goals needed.
Matt, I think the 1st priority was definitely fix the goalie situation! But, I’m not sure if we’re done,YET…? Darling should not have to play 60-70 games, (and we don’t even know how many he can play…WELL!). So, rather than sticking with Ward or Lack, who had terrible stats, as our BU, I’D PREFER shopping for another guy… maybe at the VEGAS THRIFT SHOP…!
2ND PRIORITY- Top6 Center. 3rd – (this is a tough call) I’d look for another forward (top9), but consider another Dman (if we have to choose between them). My thinking is Fleury and /or McKeown may be ready to play here, so we know we can always use another Forward…,eh?
There’s a good chance that the Canes pick up a Top-4 defenseman through a trade. A handful of teams (Anaheim, Minnesota, Nashville come to mind) would have to protect 8-skaters instead of 7F3D because they have at least 4 quality defensemen who are eligible for the expansion draft. A simple solution for these teams would be to trade one of those defensemen for a player that’s exempt from the expansion. The only defenseman the Canes really have to protect right now is Faulk, so they could easily take another defenseman or two without worry. The Canes could trade Hanifin, Slavin, or Pesce for a defenseman that’s further along in development or maybe a F+D combo if they’re willing to take a downgrade at D for an upgrade at F. Names that interest me include Cam Fowler, Jared Spurgeon, Mattias Ekholm, and Ryan Ellis. (Plus, there’s another advantage in that, if the Canes trade one of Hanifin/Slavin/Pesce for a player that’s already signed to long, reasonable terms, they’d avoid the hassle of having to negotiate extensions for all 3 players at the same time.)
I’d never consider trading Pesce, Slavin, or Hanafin…!!
They’re young, inexpensive, and should be around for many years!
They won’t be inexpensive forever, or for much longer really. Quality defensemen don’t come cheap in the NHL, and all 3 of those guys could be due for big raises in a year’s time. A guy like Ekholm (who is signed through 2021-22 at a $3.75M cap hit and now has SCF experience to boot) would be more than worth giving up one of Hanifin/Slavin/Pesce if he’s available IMO. Never say never.
A. Three top[ priorities: 1. Goaltender (accomplished). Will add that I would be willing to accept Ward as our backup goalie. While I like Lack, he is better trade bait, and if traded, I think he will do well wherever he goes.
2. Top line center in the Mackinnon, Duchene, E. Staal, Backstrom, etc. mold. If in camp Roy, Putarelski, or other rookie center shows he can be at least a second line center, I would move Aho or Lindholm to 1st line center. This only if the cost of a 1st line center is just too prohibitive. Too prohibitive means giving up one of our top four defensemen. Look, we’ve got our top four defense sowed up and there is no need to weaken it to bolster some other position IMO.
3. A veteran defenseman capable of stepping in and playing some top four defense if needed (injuries, etc.) of the likes of Quincy, Klein, Hunwick(?), etc.
B. Depth players: We get those from our existing talent pool unless we can steal someone (like we did with Stempniak) in free agency. For example, if Stalberg was out there and we could get him as we did last year, then let’s go for it.
I will add that ctcaniac, puckgod, ironconiace and you Matt all have valid ideas that I could live with and not be disappointed. If RF’s moves correspond to yours or their ideas, then for sure I’m in and I will postpone my GM aspirations for another year or so.
I wouldn’t postpone those aspirations just yet..RedRyder…if we miss the playoffs AGAIN…I’ll be nominating you for the job next year!! That is if I can get some plush seats in your suite…!
Matt. On the Plan B for Defense I am not sure it works. You have pointed out that if Dahlbeck is the 7, he struggles on the right side. So Carolina seems set on the left if Hanifin can continue play from last 1/3 of this past season or if Fleury lives up to his draft status quickly. So the need seems to be a Right D. I mentioned last week I like Stephen Johns as CapFriendly indicates Dallas won’t protect him and he seems like the most likely selection by LV. He is right-handed shot, played more than 18 minutes a game (closer to 20 minutes in March and April) including 2 on PK. So not a tenured top 4, but definitely with potential. He salary is only $725,000. Maybe a bit of a gamble, but it would leave the budget in tact for adding two forwards, one a major scorer. If that is too risky, then I think the UFA route for Hunwick, Quincey, or Polak makes sense. But I think the plan has to be that the top 4 are already in the organization.
So Ironcaniac, I don’t think any of those 4 get traded. Although Ekholm makes sense given the length of contract. The others are all FAs in the next two years.
The challenge and question is the important line between a 4/5 and a 5/6 whose ceiling is really as a 5. I never have as good of a feel for Western Conference players, but my impression of Johns is that his ceiling is 5/6. Ideally I want a player who could be a 4 if needed hopefully just to fill in for injuries but also to be a regular if needed.
My checks with people who cover the teams suggest that Hunwick and Quincey are also 5-7 and not a 4 at this stage of their careers. Polak rates out less. He brings a physical/nasty element, but his mobility is borderline even for a third pairing role.
Matt. I appreciate your knowledge and sources. But, if I am understanding you correctly you hope for a 4/5 who can play both sides. Because you originally stated it was insurance for Hanifin regressing. I take it Faulk, Pesce, and Hanifin are solid as top 3. So that leaves left side. But if Hanifin continues to improve then the need is for right side to pair with Fleury. In all honesty, I think that is too big an ask. Few teams have a true top 4, much less a player who is of that quality on both sides of the ice that must be moved.
You are right. It is a big ask.
I think the key is that the level of play on on an off right side would not need to be as high. That slot would be on a third pairing that would see a bit less ice time and be shielded from the toughest match ups to some degree. So I think the aim to find a player who does not look like a completely different player on his off side. Some players do this much better than others.
Klein, Franson, and Dennis Wideman all come to mind as guys who could man the right side and play up a line.
Or we could try to swing a blockbuster with Minnesota for Niederreiter and Brodin. Then we end up with a Top 6 forward (RW) as well as a #4-#6 defender who plays on the right side even though he’s a left shot.
I do think it behooves teams like Anaheim, Minnesota, and Nashville to try to trade one of those defensemen rather than expose them or protect 2 less players in order to protect more than 3 defensemen. Similarly, I think the Canes must take advantage of the unique opportunity presented by the expansion draft to improve the team more than they otherwise could.
Suffice to say, I would be pretty surprised if Hanifin, Slavin, and Pesce are all still on the Canes’ roster after the expansion hoopla is said and done. If they’re not moved for another defensemen, then they should be used to get a top 6 forward. As NHL caliber players who also happen to be draft exempt, their value has never been higher.
I know it’s hard as fans to think about moving Hanifin/Slavin/Pesce, but if we expect a substantial upgrade to help the team make the playoffs next year, we need to spend some of our depth at defense to do it. Also, the Canes can live with just two of Hanifin/Slavin/Pesce (if for no other reason than that’s one less RFA contract to negotiate) with Fleury and Bean in the system.
And I would be equally surprised if any of them were moved (with the possible exception of Hanifin for a huge return). My belief is that Ronnie will stay the course as much as possible on defense, trying to get the best possible offensive assets with picks and prospects.
I don’t see Ronnie getting us a top 6 forward for picks and prospects (which is essentially a rental fee that teams pay for a pending free agent to help during a playoff drive). If he does, he deserves GM of the year consideration!
I like your idea of a trade for a F+D combo like Niederreiter and Brodin. What do you think the Canes would have to give up?
There are “needs” “would like to have”‘s.
Needs were
(1) goalie (done – I think Cam will make a good backup and will readily and effectively adjust to that role).
(2) additional D – possibly a top 4, definitely a bottom 6 right.
“Live to have”
(1) Top-6 forward – I really think this is less a “need” than something that would benefit the team, assuredly, as it would any team but is not necessarily a make-or-break for the season.
(2) Forward depth – assuming that players like Saarela and Wallmark don’t really cut it at NHL level, particularly early in the season.
I don’t like the idea of trading Hanifin/Pesce/Slavin (and never Slavin). With all the talk of our great young blueline, suddenly it is not that deep anymore. Fleury is there and I think Bean will be too – but in a couple of years. None of the other Charlotte D really impressed me as NHL D-men – including McKeown who had his struggles, and Carrick who I think has plateau’d.
Typos:
Insert “and” between “needs” “would like to have”‘s.
“Live to have” -> “Like to have”.
I am also completely okay with Ward as a backup for 2017-18.
The big wild card for this role is how well Ward adjusts to this role. It is quite different to regularly get 3 starts per week to find a rhythm and/or get a chance to bounce back quickly after a tough outing. The role of a backup with 5-10 day stretches between starts is a completely different animal and a situation that Ward has never been in.
That said, I think the medium version of Ward is good enough for the backup role, and I also think his role as a veteran locker room leader is underappreciated.
I am firmly in the camp that the core of this team is the D and I wouldn’t move any. A while back I was supportive of moving Hanifin because he seems to have the most trade value, but several commenters here made me rethink that. Faulk is an elite goal-scoring D. And I think Pesce may still be the best of the bunch.
Ward will be fine as backup. In fact, I suspect he will have his best year in quite a while.
I think the biggest question is who steps up on the scoring front: Lindholm, Teravainen, or Rask. One of them is going to hit 20/55 next year.
I can’t see a situation that warrants trading Slavin or Pesce. I don’t believe the potential extra scoring would out weigh the potential loss on D.
I also would be ok with having Ward as the backup, however, he seems to play better when he plays a lot. He really hasn’t shown that he is that sharp coming in after a long lay off.