The preseason line combinations
Coach Bill Peters and the Carolina Hurricanes exited the preseason with reasonably strong conviction that they had a working set of forward lines.
Skinner/Rask/Stempniak had looked pretty good in preseason and notched a few goals.
Nordstrom/Staal/Nestrasil did not play together that much, but they had a longer run of strong play in the middle of the 2015-16 season.
Aho/Lindholm/Teravainen was not lights out, but they showed some strong flashes of being NHL scoring-capable.
And that left a decent mix of options to fill out a fourth line with a decent number of those players having decent preseasons.
The regular season assessment
Boy how things can change quickly once the AHLers are gone and regular season hockey ensues.
The Skinner/Rask/Stempniak line has been everything Peters could have hoped for and then some. That line has been good scoring-wise for 2 points in the standings, and it is doubtful the Hurricanes would have even a single point without them.
But that’s it in terms of anything even remotely close to serviceable.
Joakim Nordstrom and Andrej Nestrasil seem to both be off to slow starts. Nordstrom has had more than his share of small mistakes that were almost completely absent from his efficient and tidy game in the second half of the 2015-16 season. Most notable was his failure to clear a puck that might have iced the game just before Winnipeg tied up the game late. Nestrasil is similarly off to a slow start to the point where he was in the press box for game #3 on Tuesday. That leaves Jordan Staal on an island.
The young guns line of Aho/Lindholm/Teravainen has been even less impressive. The trio has made some plays and picked up some points on the power play but has been virtually invisible at even strength. They look very good when they get a chance to play with the puck on their sticks and with a little bit of space. The problem is that when I work through my memory of the 3 regular season games, I am not sure that has happened more than a handful of times.
The fourth line has not been horrible, but it is times like these that a coach would love to have a little bit of depth scoring down there.
So what is Peters to do?
I have been critical of Coach Bill Peters’ constant shuffling of lines during October and November of last season while the team floundered with nothing working. So to suggest that it might be time for Peters to shake things up a bit might legitimately seem hypocritical.
But it is not as if a couple of the combinations seem to be just barely missing.
What is locked in with certainty?
First and foremost, under no circumstances should anyone consider tinkering with Skinner/Rask/Stempniak. The trio is dynamic now and amounting to about 2/3 of a solid NHL offense on a nightly basis.
Second it would be rash to consider taking Jordan Staal out of the lineup. He has shown signs of being the same puck-carrying power forward that he was last season and is just too important of a player.
But that’s it…I would not call a single one of the other forwards a lock for ice time nor are there any other 2 or 3-player combinations that I would declare inseparable. It might be more methodical to only change 1 player on a couple lines versus completely starting anew with random sets of 3, but I would not consider anything locked in.
My priorities
If I was Bill Peters my absolute top priority would be to find a combination that works with Jordan Staal. If Peters can get to the point where he has the Rask line still going and something workable for Jordan Staal, he can cover about 2/3 of his ice time and even tinker within games to figure out what is working for other options.
It is not an absolute requirement, but I would also have a bias toward keeping players from the first power play unit in the lineup. Despite not scoring on Tuesday, the power play continues to look good and provide another way to generate goals.
What I would try
* With Jordan Staal: I would be inclined to give Phil Di Giuseppe a longer look with Staal. Di Giuseppe is 1 of only a few players who have the combination of mobility, ability to complement Staal’s ability to cycle the puck on the boards and defensive acumen. I am torn on who to play on the other wing. It would make for an even bigger shake up, but I might consider trying Lindholm on the right side with Di Giuseppe on the left side. A dynamic offensive element continues to be elusive for Lindholm, but he is the type of positionally and defensively sound player that could match the checking responsibilities of Staal’s line.
* Some size to complement the skill: As noted above, I think the biggest problem in the early going with the Lindholm line is that there is really no one on that line who would rate higher than 3 out of 10 in terms of going and winning pucks on the wall or in a 1-on-1 puck battle. If Di Giuseppe does not play with Staal, he could bring that element to this group. Andrej Nestrasil is another player currently without a slot who brings size but with enough skill and skating to hang. It is unclear whether Bickell could match pace, but he theoretically could also bring a different element to the kids skill line.
At a basic level, I think I would try something like:
Skinner/Rask/Stempniak
Di Giuseppe/Staal/________ (Di Giuseppe can player either wing)
Aho/Teravainen or Lindholm (but not both)/Nestrasil or someone else with size
Bickell/Nordstrom/Stalberg
The big question with my set is how much Peters is willing to adjust from original thinking on who plays center. My set of moves could quickly remove Lindholm from his run back at center, remove mainstay center Jay McClement from the lineup altogether and create a new center (he played there some in Chicago) in Nordstrom. That is a significant shift from where Peters’ head was at only 1 week ago.
What would you do?
1) How patient would you be with current lines? Is 3 games too short for wholesale changes?
2) What 4 lines would you ice on Thursday in Calgary?
Go Canes!
Re the Aho, TT, Lindholm line. So much of the seasons prediction of success depends on this line becoming dangerous. We will likely sink or swim based on their ability to come together as a line. Peters could logically sit Aho for the benefit of watching a couple games and patch in someone else temporarily, but this line must gel at some point for there to be team success.
Re: Wholesale changes. The slow start to the season has officially begun. 2 points from 3 games against some of the weakest west coast teams has nearly insured another bad start to a season. Ward’s performance thus far is another symptom that bad start is upon us.
Re: 4 lines for Thursday. The 12 fastest forwards in any combination.
I’d be more patient. Realistically, our offense has been very good and we’ve scored enough goals to win. Chemistry takes time, and we know that Nordy/Stahl/Nesty took 25 games to start clicking.
As for CAL, I’d try:
1/ Skinner/Rask/Stempniak. They have been excellent. Skinner could have scored 3-4 times in EDM.
2/ Teravainen/Stahl/PDG
3/ Aho/Lindholm/Bickell or Stahlberg – Bickell has been way better than I expected and that line needs to be dirtier. I think he can match the pace.
4/ Stahlberg or Bickell/McClement/Nordy
Looking at these lines, I think the biggest issue is where Teravainen plays. The success of the JStahl line last year was cycling, possession, and winning battles but that’s not TT’s strength. We may need a different formula for JS’s line this year to match the success of last year given our personnel.
I’m way more concerned about our defense and Cam Ward. I think everyone is thinking we should be 3-0-0 right now.
Honestly 2 points in three away games isn’t the end of the world. Maybe where it’s two OT losses it feels more urgent than it probably is, I wouldn’t be that disappointed if we were 1-2 over three away games that were all close(but admittedly sloppy at times).
I’d really like to see Tolchinsky get a call up when the team gets back to Raleigh, he seemed really hungry in preseason and from what I’ve seen so far, a little more mobility and creativity when we get into the O-zone could probably go a long way. I don’t think Nesty and Nordstrom are talented enough that you can leave them in the top six while they find their games.
If JR rosters taught us one thing, it’s if you build your forward lines out of trash other people threw out, you’re going to struggle to score goals.
Waiver wire pickups, free players for cap space, cap dumps, other teams 4th liners, kids probably too young to be in the NHL…
And the cherry on top, is that these player don’t seem to be able to play Bill Peter’s hyper possession hockey.
To me, up front, this group looks like a step back from last year. I wonder how we’d be viewing Francis and Peters if they didn’t get lucky with Slavin and Pesce.
I mean by that logic isn’t the only way not add “someone else’s trash” to draft them? Ie. If the free agents available were so great why would their teams let them walk?
I think the entire league’s been generally impressed with what we’ve added by taking cap dumps. Just be happy we’re taking players off Chicago now and not Toronto.
I think you may be mismanaging your expectations for this year, this roster shouldn’t be expected to make the playoffs, it should be their goal, but measurable improvements within our young core should be what we’re looking for.
Being outside looking into the playoffs as a young team should be far more exciting than being a perennial wildcard hopeful with an aging core and very few legitimate prospects.
1) You can trade for players other teams value, rather than acquire players they are willing to dump for cap space and roster spots.
2) You can sign free agents that are sought after rather than journeymen 4th liners.
My expectations for this season are being realized on the ice. I thought they’d be awful because Francis is applying the same used band-aid’s strategy to fix the gaping wound in the top 9. On top of rolling out the same failed duo in net.
And the cold dark reality is that the ‘young core’ of forwards doesn’t look promising. Lindholm looks like a non-factor still. TT looks like Lindholm. Aho looks like a 19yo over his head. Nords and Nestrasil look like that one good month was probably a fluke.
Stempniak looks great. Too bad he’s 34 instead of 24. Which leaves Skinner/Rask/Staal as the only guys who you can confidently say are good NHL players going forward.
And in the system? A bunch of defensive prospects and Gauthier.
Basic point that team still lacks quality depth at forward is somewhat accurate though I’m not sure I agree about “band aid” comment. Francis has actually done the opposite.
Rather than trading prospects and picks for short-term fixes, Francis has been steadfast in his commitment to building from youth and from within (arguably to a fault). I would view it more as having the patience to work from seeds which can be slow going.
He’s not trading for the band-aids, he’s picking them out of the trash. And that’s why your article points out we have 4 guys who definitely belong in the lineup, and 10 guys who could justifiably be scratched.
Which is fine if there are seeds in the system. But outside of Aho and Gauthier, who’s even a threat to be a difference maker in the Canes future at forward?
Kuokkanen, for one, looked like he is probably going to end up being a steal in the second round.
We have a great goalie prospect in Ned, rebuilds take time and I’m glad we have our back end stocked as it’s typically harder to build.
You mentioned wishing Stempniak was 24 but then you’re also upset that the people younger than 24 are still finding their games. Is there a magic age of player that we should be seeking out, that other teams are willing to trade but is also very good?
Sorry, it’s just the pessimism that surrounds this team confuses me sometimes.
Is there a magic age? Kind of. After a few seasons in the NHL, players are usually what they are going to be. Hoping that a 23yo is going to be a rare exception is fine. Counting on it, as the Canes are doing, is another thing.
Ned is pretty far from a great goalie prospect.
And Kuo looked like what you hope a 2nd rounder would look like in his first camp. But that’s a long way from anything, let alone declaring him a steal.
That’s not pessimism, it’s just realism.
I agree with you Matt, that the first line should stay untouched at this point. I am not sure what to do about Staal’s line as what makes HIM successful in my opinion is a very strong possession/cycling game, and I’m not sure who beyond Nesty and Nordy work with that style. PDG probably does, but do any of the kids on the 3rd line fit that? If not, do they actually make him any better with their higher skill or just exchange one problem for another? As you mentioned on Twitter, Frk might not be mobile enough to get off the 4th line, so if he is not an option for either of those two upper lines, is he worth keeping at all, or is it better to call up someone from Charlotte to supplement a position or two. I think the more I think about the shake up needed, the more I wish had less veterans that have to pass through waivers. I’d like to try something like this:
Skinner – Rask – Stempniak
PDG – Staal – TT
Brown – Lindholm – Aho
Bickell – McClement – Stalberg/Frk/Nordstrom
Problem with this is if you bring up Brown, who has a game somewhat like PDG’s, so could be helpful, you have to put one of those 4th line potential guys through waivers.
I’m not too worried about losing MOST of those guys to waivers…??
We have a few guys in Char./ to bring up, as good/ as average…
BUT who is gonna want them, anyway?
A trade would be nice, but who is available…and who do we have that anyone would want?
That bridge has already been crossed…methinks!!