With the completion of Tuesday’s game, the Carolina Hurricanes are suddenly 21 games into the 2019-20 season.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers an assessment of the team so far
Results matter
Through 21 games, the team has 27 points. That 105-point pace should easily be good enough for the playoffs. The Canes sit in third place in the competitive Metropolitan Division and adjusted for games played have a four-point cushion above the #9 team in the Eastern Conference and the playoff cut line.
Put simply, that is good. Very good.
I will of course go on to evaluate the team’s play in detail below and offer cons to go with pros, but it should not be lost that the Hurricanes are in a very good place through 21 games.
Offense/scoring
There have been ebbs and flows, but in total I think the team’s offense has been a plus. Erik Haula’s absence significantly changes things heading into the second quarter of the season, but for the first quarter being evaluated Dzingel/Haula/Necas adding some scoring punch in the bottom part of the lineup and equally significantly all contributed on the power play. That makes for three players who were not even in the mix in 2018-19 who have made significant scoring contributions in 2019-20. Haula has been a key component as a net front presence and finisher on the power play. Dzingel has actually impressed more with his playmaking than his goal scoring. And Necas is growing as an offensive player at the NHL level. Dougie Hamilton has contributed at the level of a goal-scoring forward which is a huge boost from a defenseman, and the blue line in total led the way early in the season before slowing a bit. At a bare minimum, Andrei Svechnikov has taken a step forward offensively. Right now, he is clearly pushing up against being a bona fide top-tier NHL scorer through 21 games. Ironically, a few of the team’s top offensive players started slowly and are just starting to hit stride. And the forecheck that drove the offense in 2018-19 has been sporadic at best. That suggests that the team has upside to offset any slow downs and also Haula’s absence.
As I have said recently, this team has regularly shown the fire power and finishing to out run its mistakes on some nights. The team has more weapons and better pure finishing offensively than it has had in a decade.
I do think Haula’s absence is worth watching. If the result from that is one scoring line and three scoring-limited checking lines, the team could struggle to score enough. But at the same time, the there is potential upside if top players like Aho and Niederreiter can find a higher gear.
Defense
At a general level, I would say that the team’s defense is a work in process. Through 21 games, the defense is nowhere near the level it was playing at in the latter half of the 2018-19 season. Odd man rushes against and break downs defending in the defensive zone have been far too high. The blue line that was the foundation in 2018-19 is still a work in progress. Jake Gardiner is still trying to get settled with a new team and system and has struggled. Joel Edmundson has had some ups and downs but generally been more positive. For as much as Dougie Hamilton has been elite offensively, his defensive play has had too many lapses. The core of Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce have mostly been stalwart, but the rest of the blue line is still a work in progress. Equally significantly, the Hurricanes forwards have similarly had issues defensively. Aho seemed to regress a bit early in the season. Staal started slowly. And in general the team has not been as successful slowing the other team immediately with the forecheck and has had trouble defending the neutral zone behind that.
Just like with the offense, I think there is significant upside here. Ideal would be if the team can re-establish its forechecking identity. When the team forechecks effectively, the volume of defending that is required decreases. …The best defense is a good offense.
Goaltending
Thus far, I think the goaltending has been decent not great. Neither goalie’s numbers are very impressive, but part of that has been the defensive play noted above. Of the losses, there are not really any that I would hang directly on the goalie, and the duo has stolen a few games already. In general, I think the goalies have generally played well enough to get the team the outcome it deserved. While I would not say that Mrazek is playing at the level he played at last winter and spring, I think he has been good enough. And in the challenging role as a backup, I think one can live with Reimer playing a huge role in three wins on lesser nights for the team in front of him even though he does have a few ‘meh’ outings too.
The upside here is Mrazek finding a rhythm that leads to an extended run of plus play like he did in the second half of the 2019-20 season.
Special teams
The power play has been streaky but in total has produced. What started as the second unit was lights out during the team’s early winning run. More recently both units have contributed some. For a team that has struggled to be middle of the pack in recent season, the current eighth place in the entire NHL is easily an improvement.
Similarly, the Canes’ 11th place ranking for the penalty kill is at a minimum acceptable.
The absence of Erik Haula is worth watching on the power play, but the team also has offensive players who have yet to really click.
Greatest potential upside
I really do not think the team’s best players have led the way yet. Sebastian Aho has boosted his scoring of late in total for the first quarter of the season, he has played at a level significantly lower than what he did for the 2018-19 season. Jordan Staal has started slow. Petr Mrazek has been okay not great. And at a more general level, just tightening things up defensively could make it easier to win more often on lesser nights.
Cause for concern (or at least things to watch)
My biggest concern right now is that I really do no think this team has an identity yet or a consistent formula. Through 21 games, I think the team’s greatest strength has been its ability to out-score many of its mistakes. The better offense is obviously a positive, but as the season wears on it becomes tougher to win with too many mistakes. The peak version of this team continues to score in bunches but also adds an ability to dictate play with the forecheck and be sounder defensively such that winning 2-1 is possible if necessary.
What say you Canes fans?
What is your assessment of the Carolina Hurricanes at the one-quarter mark of the 2019-20 season?
Go Canes!
I think the team fully understands their identity. The factors of looseness are probably psychological because everyone understands you cannot play playoff caliber hockey for 82+ games. That coupled with your points above that our top players have yet to really hit their stride, and some new blueliners adjusting to the team during this looser stretch of games.
I really think things will settle down after the holidays. Aho will peak, the forecheck will become more consistent, and our new defensive players, especially Gardiner, will start to look more like the coveted players brought in this offseason. That said, would not be surprised to see an early move in order for this team to compete with what looks to be the Bruins/Caps/Isles as heads of the East.
The team is in a good place. We tend to forget that the best players are still young: 22, 20, 19. The next three core players (TT, Pesce, Slavin) all turned 25 this year. While the Canes are not rebuilding anymore, this is really the beginning of the contending years.
The one place I disagree with the assessment a little is how much the team will miss Haula. The “scoring line” was driven by Dzingel and Necas. After last night, Wallmark has the same number of 5-on-5 points as Haula. Wallmark has 17% more ice time, but most of that was with the likes of Gibbons and McGinn. In fact, splitting Dzingel and Necas could create three scoring lines as opposed to three “limited” lines.
Haula was great on the PP and he will be missed there—though moving Aho to what is clearly the first unit should mitigate the falloff.
Looking at the first quarter of the season as a whole doesn’t seem right. I would look more at how the Canes are trending. Sure, they hit a rough patch. Currently they look like a confident team out there, which is what you want to see.
Svechnikov is trending toward having a big season. He seems much more confident in his shot and is carrying the puck without a lot of issues. Only downside is they are going to have to pay him after next season. Don’t want a repeat of the Aho debacle.
Hamilton is having a career season. He just needs to be reminded every so often that he has to play defense, too.
Aho does not look confident. On the shorthanded breakaway he had plenty of time but took a basic shot like a fourth line plug. Lerner was leaning left. Confident Aho would have done more. He isn’t effectively carrying the puck while in the offensive zone either. Wondering if he isn’t “nicked” already this season.
Pesce and Slavin are machines.
Gardiner is Gardiner. Tripp said Gardiner had his best game last night, which basically means he didn’t screw up that much.
A talented guy in front of the net is huge on a PP. They will miss Huala. BTW…remember when everyone thought Brind’Amour couldn’t coach a power play? Wallmark has been solid so far. He’s very smart, but limited physically and you could even see that last night. A team like Chicago is the best for Wallmark. They are neither big nor fast. Wonder how he will fare against bigger and faster teams. I hope he proves me wrong and is more, but I still think he will be solid as the 3C.
What to look forward to is more from Aho, Staal, and Nino. All three will breakout at some point. Nino is looking more confident and that breakout may be coming soon.
So far so good. Sure, they aren’t in playoff form, but do you really want them to peak in November? The tough part is trying to catch the Caps and Islanders. Whew, those two teams are setting a blistering pace.
With the season now over 25% complete we are fast reaching the point where “you are what your record says you are”. Today we are 3rd in the Metro, with 2 other Metro teams leading the wild card race, not far behind. Nothing wrong with that.
Other standings observations:
Toronto sits out of the playoffs, yet above the 10th pick in the draft. (see: Patrick Marleau trade) Sweet.
Buffalo sits out of the playoffs. This would be their 9th consecutive year out of the playoffs, equaling our longest drought. Sweet.
All 5 teams directly behind us in the playoff chase lost last night. Sweet.
Thursday match up with the Flyers is as important a game as a team has in November. Can we avoid the first game back from a road trip let down common in the NHL? To do so would be sweet.
Off topic question… is JWILLY retirement a foregone conclusion?
I’m a little disappointed because I felt he has been valuable, and still is able to make a difference, IMO!
I’ve been a little absent from the comments partly due to Fox Sports not having the games on Dish Network (millionaires fighting over…POWER? …anyway I haven’t seen many games except when I am in a local watering hole, which I frequent too often ALL READY!
That, and I don’t usually have much to add to the awesome input from ya’all!
Cheers!
Matt
Your assessment is pretty spot on I think.
The big difference between this year’s Canes and the Canes of seasons past is the skill level which is way up, allowing us to win on nights where we perhaps do not deserve the W.
I know that before the run last year I could turn off the TV at the end of tied game in regulation with 99.5% certainty that we would lose in OT.
Now I look forward to watching OT and in fact expect us to get the extra point.
I had problems with last year’s mantra of “we can only win by outworking the other team”, because a team can’t sustain that level of effort over 82 games, let alone expecting to have anything left in the tank for the extra season.
So the Canes trijectory has been exceptionally good in this regard, they are well inside the playoff cutoff line and we all agree they can do better as a group and exhibit more effort.
If they can stay at least at 500 over the next 2 or 3 months they can prepare for playoffs (e.g. by picking up a trade deadline acquisition or two).
Of course that is not a given, we’ve seen things that need clean up and I’d say we should have won at most 2 of the last 4 games, so we can’t maintain that type of luck forever and instead have to try to clean up the little mistake that cost us.
Just look at poor old Buffalo, shot out of a canon both this year and last, talk of the cup, and then mistakes and injuries compound to turn their season into early exits.
It’s not fair to call Buffalo’s problems “mistakes.” They are a team made up of star forwards that do not play a complete game. Jack Eichel is the poster boy for a bad captain. The example he sets screams loser. Jeff Skinner is the same type of player. Jimmy Veasy as well. They are made to lose and they will lose.
Well, you can call it what you want. I do not agree with your assessment of Jack, though I accept your more general point.
Star forwards (not named Crosby) do not win hockey games (look at Toronto), it takes a complete team game.
Hockey is different from soccer or basketball where your stars play a much bigger role on the team.