In my ‘stay or go’ post from yesterday, I discriminately voted to re-sign only Riley Nash on a 1-way contract for 2016-17 with Cam Ward as a maybe but only after consider other options for a second goalie. In so doing, I voted to part ways with veterans Nathan Gerbe and Brad Malone and also younger depth players Chris Terry and Michal Jordan if it requires a 1-way contract to keep them. (I would be happy to have Chris Terry and/or Michal Jordan back on 2-way contracts to provide deep depth as a #14/#15 forward (Terry) or a #8/#9 defenseman (Jordan) who is expected to play in Charlotte unless injuries require call ups.
The other part of the March/April evaluation period was seeing numerous NHL call ups in NHL play. Below is my assessment of both role and likelihood of making the 2016-17 opening day roster. Per my blog from yesterday, a key factor when considering these players is the overarching goal of filling even the bottom few roster spots with players that have scoring upside that could help the Canes boost the offense.
Cutting to the chase as a starting point, I think the player whose stock went up the most during the March/April try outs is Patrick Brown. Below is a quick assessment of each player.
Patrick Brown
Assessment: In terms of finding a stereotypical safe and sound #12 type forward whose 2-way play does not cost you games, Brown is the frontrunner. He brings a nice mix of decent skating ability, size and positional and situational awareness. His 2-point game against the Rangers suggests at least the possibility of scoring upside, but if you look at his track record at the AHL level, he had a modest 10 points in 60 games in 2014-15 and a somewhat better 25 points in 70 games in 2015-16. I view him as being a solid fourth-liner without a ton of the scoring upside that I prefer to put in this slot.
Potential role: If he makes the team or sees action because of injuries, I think he slots as a safe and sound fourth-liner who will not stand out in a bad way, but at least so far he does not project as more than a fourth-liner.
Brock McGinn
Assessment: The more significant part of Brock McGinn’s try out came not during the March/April stretch but rather during an extended run earlier in the season. McGinn does have the potential to bring more offense from a fourth line role and even to step up to a higher line if he can round out his game for the NHL. He scored in bunches at the junior level and stepped up to 35 points in 48 games at the AHL level this season (projects to about 60 points in 82 games). The issue for him is translating his style of play to the NHL level. At the junior level, his game was that of a physical, rugged forward. In his NHL stint, he struggled converting this to the NHL level. His heat seeking missile style sometimes lacked awareness. Especially when playing with Jay McClement, the result was too often the puck getting behind his forecheck attempt quickly for numbers and speed the other way. He is also borderline size-wise for playing the power forward game that was his style in juniors. The task for McGinn is bring his offense from lower levels to the NHL and improve his 2-way play.
Potential role: He has the potential to play his way up into the top 9 with his scoring ability, but I think he is farther away from that level than some optimistic Canes fans think. I just am not sure his game from juniors translates to the NHL level.
Derek Ryan
Assessment: His set of tools offensively has the potential to both create and finish offense at the NHL level. His issues in terms of making the Canes 2016-17 roster are threefold. First, if he stays at center, the Canes are already 2 deep at the position and ideally look for more of a top line center than a depth player. On the other hand, the Canes do need offense, so if he can provide that in preseason next year, he gets more consideration. Second, he needs to be better offensively. In his try out in March, he looked NHL-capable offensively but did not look as ready in terms of the challenging job of sorting things out in the defensive zone. It is his offense that will get him attention but ultimately 2-way play that will get him a job.
Potential role: My hunch is that Ron Francis will look to add a playmaking center to drive another line that can score. If that happens, there really is not much room for Ryan unless he moves to wing. Note that he was in the same position last fall, was playing well and did not get a look at wing in training camp. Unless he blows the doors off offensively, I think he slots as AHL depth if he returns to the organization.
Brody Sutter
Assessment: Sutter offers a big body, energy and physical play very much from the old school fourth line mold. In his March audition, he was pretty sound positionally and defensively, but I think his modest offensive upside average at best skating ability makes him most likely to be an AHL depth player and also slots him below Patrick Brown.
Potential role: I think he slots as deep depth at the AHL level.
Brendan Woods
Assessment: In dropping the gloves with long-time heavyweight Chris Neil in his first NHL appearance in 2015-16, Woods showed a willingness to handle the dirty work of an old school enforcer if asked. The issues is that I do not think the Canes will spend a roster spot on a player who does that but not much more. I could see Woods as an AHL call up if you want more big and physical in the lineup, but do not see him as being an NHL regular.
Potential role: Fourth line physical presence somewhat similar to Brad Malone with enough hockey ability to play some regular shifts, but I do not expect the Canes to allocate a roster spot for this role.
Sergey Tolchinsky
Assessment: In terms of style of play and skill set, Tolchinsky is exactly what the Canes need more of – creativity and generation of offense. After an up and down first half of the season in the AHL that saw limited ice time and even scratches at times, he had a better second half of the season. The challenge for Tolchinsky is twofold. First, he needs to be an offensive dynamo that he was at lower levels. Just maybe he has the ability to do it. On top of that, he needs to demonstrate an understanding and willingness to simplify his game a bit and make a few more ‘live to fight another day’ plays versus going high risk and high reward.
Potential role: His skill set as both a creator and finisher very much makes him what the Canes need on a yet to be built scoring line, but best guess is that he will require more AHL seasoning to round out his game for the NHL level.
Ryan Murphy
Assessment: On the positive side of the ledger, I think Ryan Murphy did make progress year over year in his development. Though still not to be mistaken as a solid stay home type, he has improved defensively especially in terms of playing angles and gaps. And he has adjusted his freewheeling style mostly for the better having improved on his ability to use his skating to start moving the puck and open passing lanes forward instead of flying past everyone and skating into too many dead ends as he did early in his NHL career. On the negative side of the ledger, I think it is fair to say that he was surpassed on the depth chart by all of Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Noah Hanifin.
Potential role: For 2016-17, he slots as a #7 defenseman right now which is not a bad place for him. But as a young player who is an extra on defense, I think there is a decent chance that he will be used as a trade asset to fill the more numerous holes at forward. But if he is not traded, the logjam on defense breaks up a bit with Hainsey and Wisniewski both free agents after the 2016-17 season, so there is a good case to be made for additional patience for Murphy and tentatively planning for him to be the offensive half of a third pairing for 2017-18 and beyond.
Trevor Carrick
Assessment: I ranked him lower than the other defense prospects in training camp simply because he seemed to struggle more than the others in terms of handling the pace and pressure of the NHL game without the puck in his own end and when forechecked with it. His NHL audition in March was short, but he played a couple nice quiet games in which he did not stand out in a bad way. As a depth defenseman that is a great starting point.
Potential role: The biggest issue for Carrick is room. Right now assuming Jordan departs, he would slot as #8 behind Murphy but that is before seeing what high draftee Haydn Fleury and possibly even Roland McKeown look like next fall. Like Murphy, he needs to capitalize if/when he gets the chance to push up onto a crowded NHL depth chart. Most likely, he starts the 2016-17 as a #1 defenseman in the AHL just like this season.
Conclusion
When I net it out:
1) Patrick Brown has best chance at forward to seize a simple depth slot as a safe and sound fourth-liner.
2) Sergey Tolchinsky and Derek Ryan are both long shots to make the 2016-17 opening day roster, but worth watching simply because they possess the playmaking and scoring ability that the Canes so desperately need.
3) I do not currently see any of the other Canes AHL/NHL depth forwards as more than deep depth within reach at the AHL level.
4) Ryan Murphy slots fine as a #7 defenseman but could be more valuable as a trade asset to help fill more pressing needs at forward.
Next up, my hope is to slot the players I expect to be part of the 2016-17 opening day roster if healthy along with the open slots to be filled by Francis this summer.
Go Canes!
