Through ten games the Hurricanes have scored 34 goals for an average of 3.4 per game. That per game amount ranks third in the Central Division behind Tampa Bay and Dallas. If the Hurricanes can return to their core as a team that does not allow much defensively, that pace should be plenty.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at some of the underlying numbers for the Hurricanes scoring through ten games.
Is it sustainable?
In trying to determine if the current pace is sustainable, one thing that jumps out immediately is unsustainably high shooting percentages for many Hurricanes forwards. The team has two players in rarefied air with shooting percentages north of 20 percent with Ryan Dzingel at 22.2 percent and Brock McGinn at 21.1 percent. Not far behind are Vincent Trocheck at 18.8 percent, Jordan Staal at 18.2 percent, Andrei Svechnikov at 18.2 percent, Nino Niederreiter at 17.2 percent and Warren Foegele at 14.3 percent. History suggests that most of these players will be able to maintain this pace.
Looking at scoring paces for players for an 82-game season also yields some goal scoring that likely will not be sustainable. Nieddereiter is on pace for 41 goals, McGinn 33 goals and Svechnikov and Trocheck both 49 goals. Maybe a player or two has a career year, but in total the pace is unlikely to continue.
Can anything balance inevitable slowdowns by some players?
An offsetting factor is the fact that the Hurricanes do have some players who are underperforming offensively and figure to pick up the pace. In seven games sandwiched around a COVID layoff, Teuvo Teravainen has only two assists and no goals. Similarly, Jaccob Slavin is off to a slow scoring start with two assists and no goals. When Brett Pesce and Dougie Hamilton both scores on Sunday, those were the first two goals of the season for the Hurricanes blue line. The groupg in total figures to pick up the pace at some point. The fourth line has also yet to really score. Regulars Jordan Martinook and Morgan Geekie have yet to score and the fourth-liners who have scored I think have unanimously done so playing on other lines. So the possibility is there for some players cooling to be offset by other players heating up.
What say you Canes fans?
1) In general, is the Carolina Hurricanes 3.4 goals per game pace sustainable over the course of the season?
2) Of the players off to hot starts, which are most likely to sustain something close to their current pace? Which are most likely to slow down?
3) Of the players not currently producing in terms of goal scoring, which do you see rebounding most strongly?
Go Canes!
Obviously guys aren’t going to shoot 20% for the season, but I do think some guys are playing better than in the past. Niederriter has played a much grittier game this year. It’s what he needs to do to be effective as the speed of the game has made his skill game less relevant. He will cool off, but should have a better season. Last night was a great example. He had three grade A chances and scored on the worst one when the rebound bounced off his shinguard into the net. He missed the net on one and whiffed on the other. Vintage Nino.
If McGinn keeps playing with Aho he will get more points. Pretty simple.
Dzingel is going back to the fourth line as soon as people get healthy. He tries, but is still too much of a defensive liability.
Svechnikov could post a pretty gaudy shot percentage with his abilities. We’ll see.
If Aho, Teravainen and Hamilton don’t rebound it will be a long season for the Canes. These guys need to light the lamp for the Canes to win regularly.
1. I think so. Once shooting percentages start to balance put those not scoring as much should be stepping in. Aho, Turbo, Dougie, and possibly Skjei should be providing more scoring opportunities. The putrid PP, of late, being top 10 like last season will help.
2. I would say Svech or McGinn. Svech is a monster out there and has the skill to keep it up. McGinn may keep it up because the defense is so focused on Svech and Aho, that he can do what he wants.
3. Dougie. Once he has gotten over his ailment (or whatever it is that is causing him issues), he should be a regular contributor.