Entering March, my focus for watching Carolina Hurricanes games shifted significantly toward building for the 2017-18 season. On February 22, I wrote an article in this vein that was entitled “5 positives of Hurricanes current situation and uses for the March/April schedule.” Though Monday is only March 13, work is well underway on the checklist spelled out in this article.
While there is necessary and valuable work that can be done in the last 5-6 weeks of the 2016-17 season in terms of player evaluation and development, I continue to think that this will be a make or break summer for general manager Ron Francis. I joked recently that I already wrote most of my ‘assessing the team and needs’ type of material last summer and would just reuse it in a couple months. Literally the first article that I wrote upon returning after a short break after the conclusion of the 2015-16 season on April 20, 2016 identified the 2 biggest needs for Francis’ 2016 summer work – an upgrade in net and a scoring difference-maker at forward.
An alternative path to more Carolina Hurricanes scoring
The second priority, a scoring difference-maker at forward, is a challenging task. It is not like anyone has an extra top 6 forward capable of 60+ points that they are just looking to unload. But now sitting 24th in the NHL in scoring, the Hurricanes must find a way to post more goals for 2017-18. The obvious way is to add 1-2 top-tier forwards.
Without letting go of plan A of adding an offensive difference-maker, I think there are 2 other ways that the Hurricanes could fairly significantly boost their scoring from within their current personnel. The first is to get more from the blue line. I think this is starting to happen on its own simply from the young defensemen maturing. I have written about that previously and will put that aside for today.
The other potential scoring boost is to get more depth scoring, especially from the fourth line. In a modern NHL that is minus the need to have 1 or even more hockey-limited old school enforcers on the fourth line, the potential exists for teams with deep rosters to build a fourth line capable of chipping in much more offensively. There are limits to this. Your 10-12th best forwards are still going to garner significantly less ice time than the top lines. And those players are unlikely to find significant roles on the power play where many goals are scored. But even in 9-11 minutes of even strength ice time there is significant scoring upside potential for teams that have enough depth to skate some skilled players on the fourth line.
The Hurricanes are just beginning to reach the point in terms of forward roster depth where this might be possible.
Keeping the good from the 2016-17 fourth line as a starting point
An important starting point is understanding what the 2016-17 fourth did do well and not losing track of that. In terms of doing the job that it was built for, I think the fourth line has had a strong 2016-17 season. When Stalberg was still in tow, the trio of Viktor Stalberg, Joakim Nordstrom and Jay McClement claimed 3 of the 4 forward slots on a penalty kill unit that was the best in the league prior to the trade deadline. And the line was reasonably safe defensively in most situations. Finally, the trio did kick in some timely scoring.
Averaging about 12 minutes of ice time each, Viktor Stalberg, Jay McClement and Joakim Nordstrom clock in at 9, 5 and 3 goals respectively for a total of 17. The total projects to a 3-man total of about 23 goals in a 82-game season or about 7.5 per player. That is actually not bad production from a fourth line when you adjust for ice time, volume of penalty kill ice time and lack of power play ice time.
But is more offense possible?
But could it be possible to get much more? The key would be to keep the good – providing 2-3 solid penalty killers for Steve Smith to utilize to again build 1 of the league’s top penalty kills and also being sound defensively. Trying to score a bunch with a team’s 10-12th best players by compromising defense is a recipe for a disaster that sees scoring increase modestly and goals against go through the roof.
But could the Hurricanes build a fourth line capable of say 40 goals? That would be about 16 more than 2016-17. This might not sound like a lot, but if you somewhat randomly go sprinkle 12 more goals (16 prorated over about 3/4 of the season spread every fifth game) through the Hurricanes 2016-17 schedule thus far, the Hurricanes would have 4 more points in the standings and also have pushed 2 of those games to overtime making another 2 points possible. That is not enough to push the Hurricanes into a playoff spot, but 5-6 more points would have had the Hurricanes in a significantly different position at the trade deadline.
Figuring it out
The potential options to add more scoring punch to the fourth line could probably come from within the system. The key would be sorting out the various options to find a working combination or 2 that meets multiple requirements.
Ideally, a couple penalty killers are housed here still. Adding a fourth scoring line that forces Peters to burn minutes and energy from top scorers on the penalty kill might subtract as much as it adds.
Again, being sound defensively is important. When trying to make a modest jump from 7-8 goals per player to 12-13, those gains can be lost really quickly if the line is porous defensively.
There is also the issue of finding a set of players that mesh. Many of the options have already logged ice time together either at the NHL or AHL level. In addition, Peters and Francis still have 17 NHL games to look at those and other combinations in real NHL action.
The pool of players and some of the questions
With AHL call ups performing reasonably well during the 2016-17 season, the Hurricanes should have some options. Right now, I count Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Lee Stempniak as top 9 forwards for 2017-18. That makes 7. If you humor me and give me my difference-maker addition, that makes 8. That does leave 1 spot to be filled from within the organization, but it also leaves numerous players with the potential to build a scoring-capable fourth line.
Wings
Joakim Nordstrom: The downside of Nordstrom is that I think even his ceiling is pretty limited scoring-wise. But with more skill in the other 2 slots could his speed and aggressiveness on the forecheck help drive puck possession and offense for his line mates? As a veteran and regular on the penalty kill, he could also be a stabilizing force if the other 2 slots go to less experienced players. Is he vital to the penalty kill, or could he be replaced by someone with more scoring upside?
Brock McGinn: He had 1 massive scoring burst and not that much otherwise. But he brings a rugged element and has logged some time on the penalty kill. And he definitely has more scoring upside than an old school fighter, so just maybe he puts it all together for 15 goals. What is his ceiling offensively? Is he just a rugged fourth-liner who can play a physical brand of hockey, or can he score too?
Phil Di Giuseppe: I actually like him as a power forward element in the top 9, but if he does not earn that role, he seems capable of playing on the fourth line, possibly killing penalties and providing some scoring. I am on record as really liking his game since his recall, but like McGinn, is he just a much-needed more physical player or can he score too?
Valentin Zykov: One NHL game is not enough to draw final conclusions on what he is capable of, but is it possible that he plays on the fourth line but just like Bryan Bickell in early 2016-17 also slots as a net front presence on 1 of the 2 power play units? I thought the power play immediately took a step down when Bickell and his consistent net front presence was removed from the lineup. Can he play at NHL pace? And if he did land a fourth line role, could he be the desperately needed net front presence for 1 of the 2 power play units?
Patrick Brown: Brown is a player who seems capable defensively and maybe in a penalty kill role. The question is how much he can bring offensively if paired with some skill. What can he bring offensively to go with a pretty sound defensive game?
Julien Gauthier: Like Roy, Gauthier would be making the jump to from juniors. A logical projection would suggest that Gauthier is still at least a year away from NHL-readiness, but he is physically ready which makes it at least possible that he surges early and claims a roster spot. With both Roy and Gauthier, for a fourth line role, there would need to be some assessment of whether that or a ton of ice time at the AHL level was better for their long-term development, but they are at least worth considering. How far along is he in his development? Could he be NHL-ready as early as next fall?
Centers
Derek Ryan: He is an unrestricted free agent, but if he returns, he is a fairly skilled player for the fourth line with enough playmaking ability to both score and help line mates score. His offensive abilities are intriguing, but can he be sound enough defensively in the center slot to plug into a fourth line?
Lucas Wallmark: We will not see the 21-year old at the NHL level (read my quick thoughts on his recall from yesterday), but he has had a very strong 2016-17 season at the AHL level and could bring a Victor Rask-like combination of sound defense with some offense to boot. Just now making his way to the NHL, he is a bit of an unknown. Is it possible that his hockey IQ and decision-making ability puts him on a Victor Rask-like fast track to being a capable all-around center ahead of schedule?
Nicolas Roy: He will be making the big jump from juniors to professional hockey either at the AHL or NHL level. His NHL-readiness is something that will need to be assessed in preseason, but his skill set as a pretty good all-around player with size and some scoring ability is intriguing. Can he match NHL pace? Is he ready yet, or will he need time in the AHL to continue his development?
Sometime Monday morning look for the Monday Coffee shop post for a place to debate the rankings and possible combinations of Hurricanes depth forwards who could fill a scoring-capable fourth line for the 2017-18 season.
Go Canes!
Matt. I am not so sure “time in the AHL” is important for every player. If say Gauthier or Roy can be equal to a veteran (or even AHL-seasoned) option, then I think 8-10 minutes a game and everyday practice in the NHL is probably just as good as being a first-liner in Charlotte. So I expect one of the players currently in the juniors plus Zykov or Wallmark to be on the opening-day roster next year.
I say this for two reasons:
1. There seem to be quite a few players making it to the NHL without a stop in the AHL. For whatever reason (I think it is better nutrition and training) younger athletes seem to be making it in top leagues in all sports.
2. The one thing the Canes’ organization has is an abundance of prospects. So even if a Gauthier or Roy get on the roster and struggle for 20 games, there should be someone on the Checkers ready to move up. You didn’t list Foegele (though you do indicate he made an impression in training camp), Elynuik, Smallman, Kuokkanen. And there is Poturalrski in Charlotte.
Of course not all these players will be significant contributors in Raleigh. But I do believe they can all be significant contributors in Charlotte. And the competition among them should produce one or two more capable NHL 3rd or 4th liners.
To recap. There are 4 players who have real potential to be on the opening-day roster: Zykov, Wallmark, Gauthier, Roy. I think two make it and should upgrade scoring at least minimally over a full season. And that leaves the other 2 plus 3-5 other players being developed who have impressive upside. Or maybe as trade material.
There is no 40-goal wunderkind in the organization, and probably not another 30-goal scorer, but I can easily see 3-4 who can easily get 15-20. And several of the players mentioned bring either a more physical style or significant size.
All that along with Slavin and Pesce who are slowly increasing there offensive activity, and the potential for more offense is quite good.
Your point is a good 1 on player development and (sometimes) readiness of younger players to jump straight to the NHL.
I think the key is to be very careful to assess what is best for a player’s development and not force fit players into the NHL out of wishes, hopes and lack of better options. Though things are trending in the right direction more recently, I think Lindholm is the case study for the Canes. It just seemed so incredibly obvious the his summer and training camp unfolded that he was not yet ready for the NHL, yet the team forged forward anyway.
I am a big fan of starting players in the NHL if they earn in and then almost automatically giving them a stint in the AHL shortly thereafter. I think that sets a great tone for all players that they will probably see some of both in the best interest of their development, and it makes a demotion to the AHL less of a big deal or demotion at all. It becomes part of a normal development path for most prospects in the Canes system.
Matt. On the other blogs I read they often say you can’t prove a counter-factual. But I have one for you. Would Lindholm actually have been farther along? If he was going to be near his potential after 2 1/2 seasons, then his development wasn’t hindered. You can argue that the Canes might have been better off with someone more ready in the lineup. But that would have meant one of two things: either another Cane taking up the same spot, and the team has not had veteran depth during the years Lindy has been playing. Or a veteran acquisition with the contract implications that would have meant. So even as a case study, Lindholm is mostly making my point. Let a still-developing youngster play if the alternative is pretty much the same quality but has a higher price tag.
Its going to be tough but we have to stay with our young prospects give them every chance to make our roster. The FA pool is a crap shoot this year and not worth over paying. Trade is our best possibility. But The high end players are going to be extremely expensive but at the right price you jump on it (Duchene) but there are teams that need to get something for there players or risk losing them to Vegas so there is opportunity to get some quality players for cheap. However I really think our #1 priority is goaltending. If we had better goaltending we would still be in the playoff race. Dump Lack and have Cam stay as our back up and go find a #1.
I’ve been thinking about where to invest for sometime now, and it usually boils down for me to upgrading our top-end skill vs. upgrading our average skill. (I’ll leave upgrading our goaltending out of this discussion, because we just simply have to do that, period, full stop.)
There is this concept of strong-link or weak-link sports. I’m quoting from the Uncertainty Blog, which summarizes the discussion as follows:
“Essentially, in certain sports, having weaker players hurts your overall chances of winning more than in other sports. Think about soccer. There are very few opportunities to score, so mistakes by weaker players have a proportionally higher impact. Then think about basketball. There are many opportunities to score. So typically, one dominant player–Michael Jordan, say–can make up for the weak links on the team. Therefore, having a few weaker players isn’t going to have as big of an impact in basketball as it would in soccer. Basketball is a strong-link game. Soccer is a weak-link game.”
I would argue that hockey is a weak-link game, which means that upgrading the weakest players is more valuable than upgrading the most skilled, which means that upgrading the 3rd/4th-line and 5/6/7 defensemen is more important that upgrading our top end talent. It’s also a lot cheaper: you can outfit an entire 4th line for less than the cost of one good UFA.
Having said that, there are times within the game, like in the last minute when having top-end talent trumps rolling 4 solid lines – give me Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, and Hjalmarsson at the end of a game against almost anyone – but for the Hurricanes of 2017-18, I think our best option is to just raise the average, which is easiest by raising the talent on the bottom 6 and bottom D-pairing.
I’m only somewhat sure that talent is within the organization; I’d like to use March/April to see for myself.
DMiller. Fascinating way to think about the Canes’ building process. I would argue that hockey is a “moderate-link” game. Obviously not nearly as many scoring plays/chances as basketball. But probably 2-3 times as many as the average soccer game. Plus, an exceptional player in hockey definitely seems to make a large difference: Crosby, McDavid, etc.
That being said, I agree with your analysis that upgrading the weakest parts of the team will create the biggest improvement. The question is how much of an upgrade exists within the organization. In two years, I am pretty confidant it will be significant. Next year, not quite sure. In following your theory though, it should only take 2-3 players doing better than the players they replace. The hope has to be that among Wallmark, Zykov, Gauthier, Roy, Fleury, McKeown that the team can find those 2-3 improvements. I hope that because there is obviously one strong-link–goalie.
I think it makes sense to use the available salary to get the best option on the market (I still prefer Darling).
Your comment also made me think of the analysis that 538 did that indicated that “luck” is a bigger part of hockey than most other team sports. Cardiac Cane stated today that Carolina is 6th in Corsi this year and all but one of the other top 10 teams are currently in a playoff spot. Another article from a week or so ago (maybe Cane_analytics) broke down the statistics to show that almost all the Canes players have more “expected” goals. I think with some regression to the mean, and the 3rd-4th line improvements and 5-7 D improvements you suggest, the scoring will be up next year.
So the first thing I believe we all need to realize is that Bill Peters and by extension Ron Francis are not going to ice a team with 3 or 4 rookies next season unless they can’t help it. It’s not going to happen by choice. That means that all of this talk of Roy, Gauthier, Wallmark, Zykov, Fleury, et al playing on the big club next season is probably futile.
Another factor to consider and few are talking specifically about it, is the expansion draft. Vegas likely isn’t taking Ryan Murphy, Klaus Dahlbeck, or Matt Tennyson from this squad. That leaves one of the two forwards, Stempniak or Nordstrom as the most likely expansion loss (unless they dive deep into our AHL pool). There is a chance that both McGinn and DiGiuseppe get extended before the expansion draft, so one of them could conceivably be taken. But for my money, I’d guess it would be Joakim Nordstrom. He’s a solid 4th liner, a great penalty killer, and he’s got speed to burn. He’s also still relatively young. If I’m wrong and Stempniak is taken that means we have another Top 9 slot to fill.
The free agent market is dismal with TJ Oshie being the cream of the UFA crop. Radulov, Vanek, Gagner, Eaves, Bonino, and Hanzal round out the group of players who would be young enough to sign to a multi-year deal and also have some offensive contributions to offer. Somebody is going to overpay Patrick Eaves and Sam Gagner for their one-year wonder and I hope it isn’t us. With the exception of Oshie, none of those other names are “Bill Peters” players.
If the Canes aren’t going to put a team on the ice that has half a dozen rookies on it, then what are they going to do? Look for GMRF to troll the trade market again looking for a bargain if possible, but more likely, a value for value deal that brings an impact scorer to Raleigh.
I agree with both the weak-link argument as well as the concept of increasing offense from the blueline and the 4th line. I think that happens as a matter of course with one of McGinn or DiGiuseppe finding a roll there. I actually think that Zykov and/or Poturalski is given a solid shot to make the squad as is Lucas Wallmark. However, with the exception of Wallmark, none of those guys are 4th liners. Zykov is a sniper/scorer who is also pretty responsible defensively. I slot him in at a 3rd line RW. Fleury and Dahlbeck will likely fight it out for the 3rd pairing LHD. Somehow, somewhere Ron Francis will need to find the 3rd pairing RHD. Could somebody like a Dennis Wideman be brought in?
Guys like Roy, Gauthier, Saarela, Smallman, and Lorentz are likely bound for Charlotte. The serious Top 6 scoring threat will come via trade.
Again I would refer to other professional sports. The closest comparison is probably baseball because there are 10-12 position players who see regular action. And the team to think about is the 2015 Cubs. Bryant, Russell, and Schwarber were all rookies. Baez and Soler were practically rookies. Now I don’t expect 5 rookies. But I think 3 are highly probable. Two up front and probably Fleury on the D. And sometime during the season it is also probable that one of the names you mention as being in Charlotte will get some playing time in Raleigh. I think that is good.
Agree that Zykov should end up on 3rd line, he seems to have point potential.