Please be sure that have a look around Canes and Coffee today. The site is taking on a decidedly “the future is bright” theme today. Cory Fogg has an update on the Canes prospects tearing up the Canadian junior playoffs, and Jordan Futrell has chimed in with the first of two Charlotte Checkers preview articles as I write my Daily Cup of Joe.
Please also help us ready for the 2017-18 season by taking a short reader survey and also considering a modest contribution for our ‘coffee fund.’
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes an early shot at playing Nostradamus and predicting at least a few events for the Carolina Hurricanes offseason.
1) The Hurricanes will sign Steven Lorentz to an entry-level contract
With the signing of Warren Foegele and Spencer Smallman, Lorentz is the last player from the 2014 and 2015 draft classes who must either be signed or be given up in terms of contract rights. (Luke Steven and David Cotton are still in college, so their rights extend farther out.) Lorentz has received strong reviews in his ‘Midterms’ check in and also in Cory Fogg’s update on Hurricanes prospects in the Canadian junior playoffs.
As a seventh round draft pick, there is little certainty that a player will progress even to the AHL level, but I think Lorentz will for 3 reasons. First, he gets high marks for all of the intangibles that give a 21-year old a chance to learn and improve at the rate necessary to become an NHL player. He has improved. Seventh-round selections are very often raw potential with minimal polish. To make it to the next level, they must make significant strides in the 2 years before the team has to make a decision. Lorentz has made that progress. His 61 points in 66 games are decent for a depth forward, and his leadership role and physical improvements are also significant. Finally, the Hurricanes have the room at the forward position at the AHL level right now.
So why isn’t the deal done like Smallman’s and Foegele’s? It is just a hunch, but I am thinking that the Hurricanes wanted to see what kind of exclamation point Lorentz would offer in the playoffs, and he has. If I am right that the Hurricanes do intend to sign him before his rights expire early this summer, I figure 1 of 2 things is going on. First could be that his agent is working hard at his job trying to get Lorentz a slightly more favorable contract (bigger signing bonus, higher AHL salary, etc.) than is the norm for a seventh round draft pick. The range on later (round 4+) draft picks’ entry-level deals has been a signing bonus of $70,000-$80,000/year and an AHL salary of $65,000-$75,000. It might be that there is a small sticking point in terms with Lorentz drafted lower but playing just as well. I also think there is a decent chance that the deal is more or less done, but that an official announcement is being withheld while Lorentz stays heads down with motivation in the playoffs.
Prediction and probability: I predict that Steven Lorentz is ultimately signed and will put the probability at a pretty high 75 percent.
2) Jaccob Slavin is the first player without an expiring contract to re-sign
I wrote up the timing and roster-wide significance of Jaccob Slavin’s next contract on April 6. The short version is that based on Slavin’s budding offensive game in the second half of the 2016-17 season, I think the risk is high that he puts together a much bigger scoring total in 2017-18 and bumps up to a completely different pay grade. Based on that, I think Francis eliminates this risk by re-signing him this summer. In the process, Francis also puts a ceiling/baseline in place for the other young defensemen who must also be re-signed over the next couple years.
The potential sticking point could be terms. If Slavin’s agent pushes for a salary that fully values his 2016-17 season and even wants full credit for his offensive upside even though it really kicked in for half of a season, then it could make sense for Francis to just wait instead of paying full price early.
Prediction and probability: I think Slavin signs either in May/early June (before Francis gets busy with other stuff) or otherwise late July/August (after he finishes being busy with other stuff). Price and term are hard to guess, but I think it is either 4 years at $4.5 million per year or 5 or 6 years at slightly more. Because the deal does not need to happen until the summer of 2018, I peg the probability at a modest 50 percent.
3) Eddie Lack departs
Eddie Lack finally put together a better stretch of hockey in March which offers some reason for optimism. I think the departure of goalie coach David Marcoux also offers a change that could boost Lack’s play. But at the same time, I just think it is too risky to bet 1 of the 2 goalie slots on Lack who has not put together a good season with the Hurricanes in 2 tries. Francis would be making a really risky bet if he wanted to play the hope that the goalie coach change or a second restart is enough to help Lack find a higher gear, and I think he knows this.
Prediction and probability: I see 2 ways this change happens. First is that Francis acquires a goalie related to the expansion draft. I wrote about the expansion draft wild card in detail on March 29. I think there is a reasonable probability that Francis can include Lack as part of a deal to acquire a goalie from Las Vegas, and if that does not happen, then I think Eddie Lack gets bought out. I put the probability that Lack is not with the Hurricanes starting the 2017-18 season at 70% and think the odds are somewhat higher that this is accomplished via a buyout.
4) I think we see one more coaching staff addition
With the pressure to finally make the playoffs in 2017-18 increasing, I think Francis/Peters reach outside of Raleigh to make one more coaching addition. (This is in addition to replacing goalie coach David Marcoux whom Francis already said would not be re-signed.) Best guess is that the addition/change comes in the form of adding an additional specialist likely with a decent resume and volume of NHL work. Best bet is that this addition comes in the form of one of those funky consultant type titles like “specialist,” “advisor” or similar.
Prediction and probability: I do think someone with one of those funky titles is added to bolster the brain trust, but because the staff is full, I put the odds at only 40 percent.
5) Francis actually adds a defenseman of significance
With the number of good young defensemen already at the NHL level and the promising prospects who seem nearly ready to join them, the top priorities this summer rightfully focus on the forward and goalie positions. But after seeing Hainsey/Faulk struggle for more than half of the season in the second pairing and the revolving door next to Noah Hanifin in the third pairing, I think Francis will make a move to have a little bit too much on the blue line rather than again risking having too little. The math will be tricky. Francis will not want to spend a fortune, nor will he want to add a player with a long-term contract that commits money into a time frame that will hopefully be filled by the rising youth. Ideally, he is looking for a proven #4/#5 type defenseman who has a reasonable salary and is signed only through the 2017-18 season. This shores up the 2017-18 roster and gives Francis the ability to reevaluate his needs at the end of the season after seeing how the next wave of kids progress.
Prediction and probability: Rather than digging deep into the bargain bin with another round of Nakladal, Dahlbeck and Tennyson type of moves, I think Francis actually goes and gets a slightly higher-end defenseman who can hopefully can either play in the top 4 if necessary or otherwise lead and stabilize a third pairing even if it includes youth next to him. I am in the minority on this one for sure, so I will hedge my long shot bet by calling it only a 35 percent probability.
What say you Caniacs?
What do you think of these predictions? Which make the most sense, and which are very clearly a sign of writing Canes stuff too late at night?
What predictions do you have for the front half of the offseason?
Go Canes!
Matt. Your point 2 should be close to 100%. There are several players who should be considered the un-tradeable (unless insanity ensues and McDavid or Matthews are offered in a one-for one deal) core for the future: Skinner, Aho, Lindholm, Slavin, and Pesce. IMO, Slavin and Pesce are first and second on that list. So signing both for 6 years needs to get done this summer. You are correct that Slavin is likely to increase his scoring numbers. Peace is as well–he made several plays in the last month of the season that left me thinking “wow, that was Brett Pesce looking like an offensive D-man.” The price is only going up on both if the team waits.
#1 I think Lorentz develops into a slightly bigger version of Patrick Brown–solid at the AHL level and a player that can be called up in an emergency.
#3 I am not commenting on goaltending for a while.
#5 You are dead on. I am hoping Fleury is ready. Think he could start the season working with Pesce. I know keeping Slavin and Pesce together makes tons of sense, but I like what someone at CardiacCane said earlier this year: Pesce would make a traffic cone look solid next to him. If Fleury comes up, it would make it easier to be paired with such a strong partner. Then Faulk and Hanifin can build on what they showed after the trade deadline. So it makes perfect sense to get Slavin a solid veteran partner. If Francis makes it happen, then the D is top 3 in the league.
I’ll be happy to “comment” on Lack, and Ward…!
1st – while I pretty much agree on Lack, that still means you left Wardo out of the conversation…?? Hope that was an oversight…
we can’t make an impact of any significance on this team w/o an upgrade at the MOST IMPORTANT POSITION!!! I’d rather keep Lack as a backup, than bring Ward back IN ANY CAPACITY!
For the expansion draft, I’d leave one unprotected and trade/ buyout the other…hopefully acquiring a new KEEPER in the process.
Slavin resign could save some money, but, what is the downside?
I’m asking, because I don’t have an idea of the pros and cons…
IS THE UPSIDE BIG?
What price range Dman are you looking at? Have you got anyone in mind? I can see the logic behind this…I can also see that money being used on another “Better-Than-Average” forward…!??
The answer might be whether any Forwards in Charlotte are really ready to make an impact here next year, or a Dman can fill a slot….?
Hmmmm. …what to do? I suggest BOTH!!! that assumes we get an excellent GOALIE 1st…and 2nd…!! GRINNNNNN GRINNNNNN, LOL
1. I agree that Lorentz will be signed, but I have not read enough about him to think that he would project beyond being an AHL 2nd or 3rd line forward. Now, if he can prove me wrong, that would be great. I am much more interested to see if something is done to fill the gaping hole at the NHL 1C spot.
2. I believe that re-signing Slavin, and Pesce for that matter, becomes more of a priority at the end of the summer.
3. While Lack has not put together a good season in either of the last two, neither has Ward for that matter. If Ward ends up staying here, then the other goalie who is brought in automatically becomes the #2 goalie based on the club’s past mindset. That is not acceptable. If only one of the current goalies leaves, it needs to be Ward in order to get this club on the right track from a goalie standpoint.
4. Help with the power play is needed.
5. If a J-M Liles type of defenseman can be brought in as a 5/6 to stabilize the bottom pairing while mentoring the next of the young defensemen moving up, then you have to go for it.
1. Lorentz: Sign him unless we right up against the 50 player under contract limit. If we are, we have to be careful here not to limit our options to obtain players in the future. Where are we at the 50 player limit?
2. Slavin: Sign him. Don’t let him even get close to a deadline for a new contract. These guys don’t come along everyday.
3. Goaltending: Forget about Lack. Every Canes fan is more concerned with Ward. The concensus appears to be WARD MUST GO. If he stays, lots of luck selling tickets. It means we are accepting mediocracy at the most important position on the team. It means he somehow gets a pass for any deficiencies he has shown he has and is a PRIMA DONNA with management. Letting Ward go solves the Lack situation. No buyout is REEQUIRED. To keep Ward and buyout Lack means you are willing to pay 6 million dollars to keep Ward (Ward’s salary plus Lack’s salary). ONLY AN IDIOT WOULD DO THAT.
4. Coach: Add an additional bench coach (not some special assistant) who has extensive experience running a successful power play. Brindamoor stays as the special assistant.
5. Defenseman: While I would like to have one “old hand” experienced defenseman, it is not a deal breaker if we have some solid d-men to promote from Charlotte. Sure would help provide a steadying influence and a source of experience for the young defensemen. Maybe a bruiser type (tough stay at home) on the order of Orpik. This gives the experience and provides some protection for our smaller forwards.
Sorry for the idiot comment. I’ve been reading too much of puckgod’s comments. Modify my comment striking the word “idiot” and replace with “jerk.”
Red..have I failed to be politically correct enough for you?
I don’t remember slandering anyone, but I like to tell it as I see it… no apologies will be coming…unless you show me my errors!
WRITE ON…
Comment was not meant to be critical of you. I was just poking a little fun at you. Just a little jesting (humor) to let you know I am getting as adament in my opinions as you are and essentially agree with you. I enjoy your comments and respect your passion. I really thought you would agree with my comments about Ward.
So….If I’m understanding the ‘consensus’ and their considerable understanding of locker room chemistry, everybody wants to get rid of the actual leader of that locker room….
I would laugh any fan who would not by tickets just because Cam Ward is retained as a 1B. Who in their right mind would want to miss out on this incredible team the Canes are becoming.
Cam Ward can’t play 60 games in a season again. That much is quite clear. But as anyone who was actually paying attention knows, he got white hot in November, which means he’s still perfectly capable of carrying the team in stretches too. We get a younger, better goalie who do the majority of the work while learning from Cam in the process.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly. WE DO NOT THROW OUT PROVEN TEAM LEADERS JUST BECAUSE FANS LIKE HIM LESS. These are people. Not statistics, not puppets and not freaking robots. Every single company, organization and entity has a thing called workplace chemistry just like hockey. Miserable chemistry usually means miserable performance. If you get rid of a locker room like Cam Ward you better be darn sure you don’t disrupt the young foundation in the process by depriving these kids of one of their best veteran mentors (by several prominent accounts, this isn’t news. Cam Ward is a huge part of the team’s off ice presence as well. That’s part of his contract too come to think of it…
Be smart people…Please?
fogger794, your comments are appropriate IMO and I agree with you that players are people and not objects, etc. I have expressed these same sentiments on this site in the past. But this aside, I am not with you if you are trying to make the point that the team does not need an upgrade in the goalie position (meaning a new number 1). I accept your views on Cam’s place and role in the locker room. But I do not think that should be the deciding criteria for who is the team’s on ice number 1 goalie. Cam should be treated just like any other player. Players like Hainsey, Malholtra, Nash, etc. have been outstanding locker room personalities, but they are no longer part of the team. Time marches on for all players. As a person Ward is a fine guy and a class act all the way around, and, he has been treated in a manner recognizing this.