With crunch time for the 2017-18 season officially here and the Carolina Hurricanes flailing a bit right now, opinions abound here, there and everywhere about what the team should do to right the ship.
The absolute best thing about this is the measure it provides for how many people are still deeply engaged despite the long run of playoff misses and the current duress.
The second best thing is reading or hearing and considering an incredibly wide range of possibilities spanning the full continuum from be patient and good times will arrive to blow the entire thing up and start over.
Not because my opinion is necessarily any more correct but rather in the spirit of healthy debate, today’s Daily Cup of Joe identifies five fairly common opinions I am hearing these days that I think are off base.
1) That calling up AHL players could not make a difference
There are obviously no guarantees that any AHL call up would make a significant difference or even be a positive at all, but I think the notion that this impossible ignores the reality of today’s NHL. The NHL is very much a young man’s game and one in which young players do regularly parachute into the NHL and make an immediate difference.
One need look no farther than the Hurricanes current roster for perfect examples. With only a handful of AHL games under his belt, Brett Pesce stepped directly into a top half of a roster role and performed admirably. The 2015-16 Hurricanes were bad enough that the difference was not enough to pull playoffs into range, but if anyone thinks that Pesce did not significantly boost the fortunes of the team over trying to make Ryan Murphy or Michal Jordan work as a top 4, then they either have a short memory or did not follow the Hurricanes that season. Sebastian Aho is a somewhat different story since he did not even make a stop in the AHL, but the general idea of young players rising up and being difference-makers before their time is not an uncommon one in today’s NHL.
The Boston Bruins rapid rise is being fueled at least in part by depth scoring from rookies Danton Heinen and Jake DeBrusk and rookie Charlie McAvoy stepping into a top 4 role and excelling. Arguably the biggest surprise in the Eastern Conference, the New Jersey Devils, have three first year players among their top four scorers (Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Will Butcher).
While there are no guarantees that AHL call ups could produce to say it is not possible ignores a reasonably common reality in today’s NHL.
And aside from the potential that it actually improves the team, I think one should not underestimate the effect that call ups often have on the current roster. Again, staying close to home, sputtering Hurricanes teams in both 2015-16 and 2016-17 were jolted into a higher gear by batches of AHL call ups that both provided reinforcements but also seemed to spark the veterans.
2) That Bill Peters should be fired
I am on record dating back to last March as saying the Bill Peters’ honeymoon period had ended and that he was officially on the clock and subject to post-grace period evaluation just like any other coach. And especially if the Hurricanes again miss the playoff, I think coaching is something that the team should look at closely. But at the same time, I just do not see how one could let Peters go after investing three years in him during a rebuilding phase and before he has truly failed in 2017-18 which I mark as the first year during which it was truly fair to evaluate him based on making or not making the playoffs.
Despite the recent losing streak, I stand by my comments in my Daily Cup of Joe on January 25 that said at a minimum he deserved to have the 2017-18 season to show what he could do.
3) That Max Pacioretty is too expensive
There are two angles to this. The first angle is that any sizable cost is just too much for a player who is only signed for 1.5 seasons and could walk as a free agent after the 2018-19 season. If nothing else has become clear from the Hurricanes February struggles in consecutive seasons that seemed to have the playoffs within reach, the fact that rebuilding somehow automatically results in a playoff berth after some period of time. It simply does not work like that. There is no guarantee that the Hurricanes will make the playoffs this year (obviously at this point) or that next year or the year after even will be any different. Climbing over the cut line and into the playoffs can be just as hard as advancing once you get there.
So in that regard, if the Hurricanes pay significantly in trade assets and even overpay within reason, I think it will be justified if that player plays a key role in pushing the team over the hump and into the playoffs even just once in the next two years.
I also think people react too much to published reports about what a general manager wants to receive for a player. Trades are two-way negotiations, so whatever a general manager says is just setting the high bar from where negotiations start. The rumored asking price is a first round pick, a second round pick, a lesser roster player and a prospect. So that is a lot obviously, but if I am Ron Francis, I call Bergevin and it hopefully goes like this:
Francis: Hi Marc. I see your asking price for Pacioretty and am willing to offer pretty close to that. I will give you Julien Gauthier (recent 1st round pick), a third round draft pick (downgrades 2nd slightly), Joakim Nordstrom (roster player) and your choice of the following prospects (list to include a set of players who do not rank among the Hurricanes’ best).
Bergevin: No way! We want Jake Bean not Gauthier and that third really does need to be a second and we want a different mid-grade prospect.
Francis: (calmly puts the phone down, counts to 20, musters up agitated tone and responds with) Jeez Marc. You must know that I am being pressured by the new owner and also that I fear for my job if we don’t make the playoffs. I realize that you are taking advantage of me and making me overpay with those upgrades, but I really have no choice. I will fax over the paperwork.
Francis: Hangs up phone and raises fist into the air realizing that he just added a bona fide top 6 forward with scoring acumen without giving up more than futures and replaceable depth.
For me Martin Necas is untouchable, but he is the only one in the prospect pool. To be clear, I am NOT in a hurry to trade Jake Bean, but that is a deal I would do. I would do any prospect at the AHL level and below not named Martin Necas plus a second round pick plus another piece or two as long as they do not dip into the higher-end of prospect pool or key parts of the NHL roster.
I imagine most have read it, but I originally made my case for Pacioretty both for 2017-18 and 2018-19 in my Daily Cup of Joe on January 25.
4) That the season is officially over
To be clear, I am not predicting a rebound. I am on record as saying that the 25 days (and 12 games) from January 30 through February 23 would decide the fate of the 2017-18 season and the Hurricanes are off to a sluggish 2-2-1 record for that stretch. I also pegged the team’s playoff hopes at 35-40 percent before the overtime loss to the Flyers. I stand by both of those assessments as mostly likely outcomes.
But at the same time, really what it takes for the Hurricanes to push into the playoffs is a single extended winning streak (something like 7-8 in a row or maybe 10 wins in 12 games). Though the team is burning through the best stretch of schedule to make that happen, that does not mean it is impossible for them to catch fire later as long as they can stay within striking distance. The current gap of only one or two points definitely qualifies.
So while the odds are decreasing with every home game that passes without progress, the season is not dead yet.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Of these four points, which do you think is most off base?
2) What else are you hearing/reading right now that you think is off base?
Go Canes!
1. It’s not that I think an AHL call up won’t help, it’s more that I don’t think it’s enough of a change. If we send out roster players in a bigger hockey trade and then call up someone, great. To change our dynamic we need to breed a winning culture, and those budding stars in Charlotte have a chance to make the playoffs two years in a row and bring with them those winning ways next year.
2. BP has this year and likely through November next year. After that, we do need to look elsewhere. GMRF also needs a strong summer to correct the remaining lingering issues, and that will take making some bold moves.
3. Two points here. One is that Pacioretty is not the only player I would be looking at (I’d actually place Hoffman or O’Reilly higher on that list of targets). That said, I agree Necas is OFF limits, and I would only trade Bean if we can get a veteran defenseman perhaps in a separate deal.
4. Yogi Berra said it best.
Spending money doesn’t matter. Of course it does. Only ARI spends less than we do, and the next less frugal team, COL, spends $7-mil more than we do, which it the equivalent of a Ryan O’Reilly or a RNG or a Matt Duchene – basically, our difference-making top-end Center.
We spend $14-mil below the top-spending teams, which is two players like that or three Mike Hoffmans or Max Paciorettys or James Neals.
We probably lead the league in points-per-salary-dollar, but unfortunately, they don’t award the Cup for that honor.
Bill Peters is not the biggest part of the problem. I believe he is on board with the need we have for grit.
The season isn’t over until we are mathematically out of it.
Pacioretty is too expensive because we don’t need him. Look at what Duchene has done for Ottawa. He stepped into a situation for which he was I’ll equipped to help. Like our beloved Canes, they had ample scoring potential. Slowly, they are healing and getting better. He is establishing chemistry with Hoffman. But his impact has yet to be felt. I fear that the same would happen with someone like Pacioretty; unreasonably high expectations and horrible disappointment. I like the idea of brining up some AHL guys. How about Roy, Gauthier, and Carrick? Bench Rask, Skinner, and Faulk. Risk Fleury, Kruger, and Jooris by sending them down. If the system needs to be shocked, that will provide it. Bringing up those particular meat eaters will give us much needed grit. McGinn, Dahlbeck, and DiGiuseppe will up their grit. If anything can inspire our scorers to score, that should do it.
Finally, can we get of the backs of our goalkeepers? They aren’t as bad as you think. And their performance quill improve when they see their team mates pulling their heads out of their anal pores and start playing NHL hockey.
The key to ALL YOUR OPTIONS…IS RF! He is the problem!
If any of these options would be THE FIX…HE COULD, AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY USED THEM!
It’s clear that (with the available Dundon money) RF could have made all kinds of moves by now! No more believable excuses that PK KEPT HIM FROM SPENDING…!
A FAN REVOLT IS THE BEST WAY TO GET SOMETHING DONE…to fix this penurious miss-running of the team, IMO!
1. You are right IMO with all of your opinions. In responding to your other blog I went on about Pacioretty, so I won’t repeat it here.
2. I don’t agree with some of the comments above, but I have no way of knowing whether they are more correct or I am more correct. I do believe this team is very young and needs continual coaching on the basics and in game coaching to keep players from developing bad habits as far as the basics of hockey go. I do not think BP is a coach that does this. He describes what he wants done, but I don’t see that he takes steps to insure that each individual player (all of them) performs as he should in the role assigned to him. For example, who has he assigned the role of getting in front of the net on each line and what has he done to see that they have consistently gone there as they have been assigned to do? That is basic coaching needed for young players. The coach doesn’t ask, he demands. I don’t see it with BP. Just my opinion.
Good post Matt, great conversation starter!
I agree with #1.
I disagree with #2. We are seeing a lot of coaching related issues.
* The unwillingness to try AHL players (it’s got to be at least partially on BP).
* The rigid sticking to a 4th line that doesn’t work, neither as a scoring threat nor as a penalty kill unit.
* The netfront presence and defensive breakdowns on second wave attacks are systematic issues. The coaching staff should have come up with a response.
* The inability to start on time or play hard in important games.
I think replacing a coach now gives the team a chance to catch a spark and, if not, helps get used to a new system this year, rather than figuring it out next year. Of course we can’t change coaches just to bring in a new coach. This would have to be a coach with desired qualities and an impressive resume, especially working with younger players.
3. I agree. WE need this extra scorer, like Max. the team has the cap space and, we think, the owner to add talent, Carolina is not the most exciting but we hear ex players speak highly of living here (plus we can attest to the qualities of the area), so hopefully it will look attractive to some players. We also have to be smarter with our prospect pool, not overhype every prospect and refuse to trade them, only to let them go for nothing after a few years of disappointment or because we’ve filled all 50 slots.
4. I wish I had your enthusiasm and optimism, but I just don’t see this team coming around this year, not unless major moves are made, and made now. And we don’t see those. And, as I have always said, man, would it be fun to be wrong about this!
1) I actually agree that Pacioretty is not too expensive. I just think either Skinner or Faulk, and Gauthier should be the offer along with another prospect. That prospect can be Bean (even Fleury), since Montreal seems to most covet D talent, if they include a high pick. Both Skinner and Pacioretty need to be re-signed. A change of scenery might do both wonders. Now I am not sure Bergevin will see Skinner or Faulk as a target, but it works for me.
Otherwise, I agree with all your points. An AHL call-up could be what leads to Carolina making the playoffs–because at this point it looks like the Rangers are fading and the Islanders are not likely to do more than tread water. So the Canes need to get past Philly or Columbus.
2) The scoring woes will definitely continue. I a NOT saying the Canes will become a high-scoring team. But at some point Skinner or Faulk or Hanifin or Slavin will start scoring again. Even Williams, Teravainen, and Staal will do better than they have in the past 5-6 games. A regression to the norm along with one move, whether a call-up or a trade, should be enough given the struggles of the three teams directly ahead of Carolina.
1) Calling up AHL Talent would not hurt. It could kick start the team or give other GMs a look at talent we may have to offer in a future trade.
2) Bill Peters can only work with the talent that Ron Francis gives him. While Bill has been slow to call up AHL resources which could help but no guarantee. He still needs the talent boost either a trade or AHL infusion would bring.
3) Instead of giving Montreal what the want, try a different tact by offering Faulk and a 4/5 round pick. We have a lot of blue line prospects in the AHL, make a place for one for to show what they can do in the NHL and potentially land a spot next year.
4) The season ain’t over until the FAT GUY ( I fit that description) sez so (you don’t want me to sing).
Nice thought provoking article Matt. Keep up the good work. Any comments on some of the other rumors circulating about other trade candidates like Hoffman or Andreas Anthanasiou or ….
Someone either here or somewhere else (that memory thing again!) about comparing our top guys in scoring with other teams top guys. The numbers showed that our guys were very close to the average for top guys. The numbers pointed out that it was the bottom guys not adding depth scoring. That was very enlightening! So #1, yes let’s try some call ups… which may be happening since Kruger and Jooris are on waivers.
#2… definitely not the time to fire BP. not with the investment we have in him… and us not knowing what role he has in calling people up or not. I believe he has gotten the best out of these teams.
#3. on the fence on this. Your argument makes sense, however, I would like to see what the call ups can do first. I also go back to the Douchene situation where that “savior” didn’t save anything.
#4. Definitely not over… we are 1 point out of the playoffs and only 5 out of third… so not yet… soon maybe, but not yet. This has been a streaky team that could just as easily kick butt for awhile and mess the bed!
And I do agree that the passion from the fans is great…. and your site is greatly appreciated for the clear headed and reasonable responses from you and the posters. It’s fun to read other sites, but I come back here to be walked down from the ledge!
PLAYERS ON WAIVERS SHOULD MEAN AHL CALL UPS ARE COMING!!!!!!!
I have to think that at this point that Bill Peters is less of the reason we haven’t seen AHL players called up and that Francis is the roadblock. Peters can scratch a guy in the lineup but I wouldn’t think that he has final say on whether a player gets put on waivers to make room for a call up. Peters was lit after Sunday’s game and I hope he went fuming straight to Francis and asked for call ups immediately after the press conference but was told no for at least one of two reasons:
1) The Checkers were on the road at the time it may not have logistically worked to take guys off the Checkers roster when they also had a road game Tuesday night during the Canes next game.
2) I would like to think that Francis has half a clue about what he’s doing (he’s done ok at times) and that he has been trying to make a trade that included players that were targets to be sent down. If he is negotiating with teams that had any inkling of interest in a player he’s thinking of sending down, they can claim the player for free if Francis puts them on waivers for assignment (as long as the team can make room on their NHL 23 roster), so Francis may have needed to buy a few more days to try to make a trade by not taking action on Sunday/Monday and waiting until he was certain no deal was available before putting Jooris and Kruger on waivers and his comments in the media this week have been posturing as part of the negotiating process.
With all this being said, I am happy to see SOMETHING is happening and hope that this is the kick in the pants some guys need, but if the Canes don’t look desperate, score 3+ goals, and/or grab some points in this weekend’s games, then the team’s going to be in a hole that’s going to be hard to climb out of with other teams having games in hand. Hopefully the roster changes aren’t too little too late and hopefully someone, anyone can score so both goalies might have a chance to get a W.