In case you missed it, I put of a special summer ‘what I’m watching’ in two parts for the Carolina Hurricanes prospect camp which takes to the ice tonight at PNC Arena. Part 1 previews the 2017 draftees, and part 2 looks at the returning players.
Craig Custance (who is a pretty reliable NHL source) from The Athletic-Detroit has Patrick Marleau in play and listed the Hurricanes among 5-6 teams that have expressed interest.
I will write up the free agent frenzy more thoroughly in the next couple days but figured I would talk about Marleau specifically and also use him to talk about the Hurricanes’ current situation more broadly.
If you missed it during the draft weekend, I still think my best guess for the trade market still applies. And at least in terms of priorities, I am admittedly expanding the options a bit but only depending on market price but still hoping to stick with original priorities as much as possible.
On Patrick Marleau as an addition
I like Marleau as a player. He reminds me of Joni Pitkanen from years past as an effortless skater who never really seemed to age int that regard. He will be 38 years old when the 2017-18 season starts and is clearly a short-term solution. Further, I would not classify him as the pure playmaking center that I desire, but he is a proven veteran who can play center or wing and who is coming off 48 and 46-point campaigns during the past two seasons.
In short, looking narrowly at building a 2017-18 roster to make the playoffs, the Hurricanes could do better, but they could also do much worse, including just doing nothing.
The cost for Patrick Marleau
The financials of the situation are a significant part of what make Marleau interesting. He is an unrestricted free agent, so whereas some of the younger and better options are alleged to cost a top 4 defense, a high draft pick and maybe more, Marleau costs absolutely nothing in terms of trade. And at some level of unreasonable price for Duchene, Galchenyuk, etc. that starts to matter more and more. He is likely to be fairly expensive salary-wise, but as long as the deal is short-term, I think that works fine for Francis who can use a player like him to hopefully build a bridge to a younger, less expensive replacement. The question is whether Marleau is looking to get what he can for term in what could be his last contract. I go back and forth on whether one year or two is preferred, but if it starts stretching to three or four, I am out. I just would not feel comfortable making a long-term commitment to a 38-year old.
What are the odds?
I think the odds are low for many reasons. First, I see Marleau and Thornton milling around but ultimately returning to give it one or two more kicks of the can in San Jose where the team still seems to be fairly close. If one or both decide to look for greener pastures, best guess is that they will be seeking a chance to win a Stanley Cup. While the Hurricanes are improving, I do not see them as a top 10 destination for a chance to win it all in 2017-18.
I guess the scenario where Francis has an advantage with players like these is if their priorities are receiving a maximum value contract. In this scenario, many teams cannot afford them salary cap-wise, so Francis could win. And for a short-term one or two-year deal, he might do so. But Francis’ nature and track record is not likely to see him bid high on both term and price.
Broader thoughts on using the free agent market for a forward addition
In general, I continue to think the best long-term options are still the original targets in the trade market. But there is a limit to what I will pay for the best available. At some point, finding a good short-term alternative via free agency without paying anything in trade becomes imperfect but palatable and importantly with the potential to be enough to boost the team for 2017-18. Discounted options from Las Vegas as the market cools there still with the need to cut a few more players to reach an opening day roster could also come into play.
As much as I want Francis to add a young, top 6 forward, I am not in the “at any cost” camp.
Playing mind games
Francis has demonstrated an ability to keep the inner workings at 1400 Edwards Mill Road under pretty tight wraps. The free agent rumblings are a bit different because there is a higher volume of agents leaking things to create a buzz around their players and also just a higher level of rumors in general. But at the point where the Hurricanes start to look like they are all in on a decent number of higher-end free agent forwards, my Francis senses suggest that one of two things is up. First is the obvious angle that just maybe Francis is going to swing a big free agent deal. But the other angle is that Francis is intentionally creating some rumbling to make it clear to teams like Colorado, Montreal and others who have appealing forward trade options that he has other options that cost nothing. So as I see the Hurricanes uncharacteristically starting popping up in discussions for big names, I start to wonder if it is all just part of a diligent plan by Francis to ultimately land what he really wants via trade.
What say you Caniacs?
Do you like Patrick Marleau? Do you think Francis could win a higher-end free agent without overpaying in salary and/or term especially given that he will be 38 years old when the 2017-18 seasons starts?
In general, what do you think about using the free agent market for a plan B that does not cost anything in trade assets? (Will save the bigger version of naming names for the Thursday Coffee Shop.)
Go Canes!
The main reason this team is always on the outside, LOOKING IN, is its refusal to spend any money for good players!
That is “penny-wise POUND-FOOLISH…IMO!!!!!
You don’t have to get a Ferrari…but a three year old Corvette would be nice, EH?!!
I would be interested in giving Nail Yakupov a chance in Raleigh. Yes, he could be one of the biggest bust #1 picks in history, but he has tons of skill and there is a chance he may have been the victim of circumstance.
If we can get him on a reasonable term and surround him with 2 defensively responsivle wingers, I think it is an experiment worth looking into (especially since we give up nothing).
I’d love to add PM from the Sharks, but I jus don’t see how they don’t find a way to keep him. I mean, that would be about as crazy as the Canes parting ways with Eric Staal. 😉
What’s not to like about Marleau? He’s durable and he scores. Absent any other alternative his signing is a no-brainer even if we have to go three years at significant dollars IMO. Would he be my first choice? No, but I sure wouldn’t let dollars and/or term shut me out from bidding for his services. As puckgod reiterates, to do so would be not only foolish, but a sign that management isn’t all in to build a contender in the eyes of the fans. Mr. Karmanos just got a 17 million dollar windfall from the Vegas expansion, He owes it to the fans to use some of it to get this franchise to be at least a playoff contender. For years IMO (and obviously in puckgood’s opinion) he has been pennywise and pound foolish in not investing in building a contender.
Marleau is on record as saying he thinks he has 5 more good years in him. That suggests what he is looking for in terms of term will be upwards of 4 years. I think it is quite likely that another team will offer him what he wants, maybe even the Sharks.
So it is a nice concept, but not realistic.
In fact that is the case with all top-6 forward UFAs. They legitimately want both term and price beyond what the Canes can reasonably be expected to pay out.
raleightj, your last paragraph concludes that unless the Canes can sign someone for a short term at a “reasonable” cost, then the Canes shouldn’t or won’t pursue a player. If that is true, it narrows the field of available players who would make a noticeable difference in the teams performance substantially. In fact, it probably means we won’t be in the running for any of the quality free agents. IMO, at some point we are going to have to spring for some dollars and probably term to get anyone with a prayer of upgrading our scoring. For example, Martin Hanzal, Galchenyuk (if we traded for him), Marleau, and Williams type players just aren’t coming cheap. Not saying you are wrong with your conclusion because you very well may be 100% correct. I am just trying to clarify that if it is correct, then there isn’t a difference maker free agent that we will be able to sign given we won’t be competitive in dollars and/or term of contract. I’m starting to think we will have to rely on a second coming of Aho amongst our younger players to solve the scoring problem. When all is said and done, how do you see us improving our scoring? What method? Free Agent? Trade? (Note: I’m with you that I wouldn’t want to sign Marleau in particular for 4 or 5 years or so. What I’m trying to do is take your conclusion about all top-6 forwards, which is probably correct, and come to a further conclusion from that.)
I just went through a list of “top 15” UFAs. The realistic ones (i.e., probably expecting some combination of limited term/dollars) seem to be Williams, Vrbata, and Vanek.
I think you have hit the nail on the head with the three you mention. Vrbata really intrigues me as being a realistic signing if he’s not just inclined to go back to Arizona. Williams, well we probably will have to spend a few extra bucks and give him a term to get him to come here. Word is he wants to go to a cup contender. Vanek, hey we could do worse. Not sure how he fits in with the speed game, but maybe he would have better forwards around him here than he did at Detroit last year. This might cause his scoring to increase to over 20 goals on the season as he was close last year. Don’t know if you would consider Hanzal also as falling into the realistic category. What do you think about him?
I view him as being in the “unrealistic” cohort. From what I read he is looking for a raise over $3M and term. He will have a number of suitors – I don’t see RF chasing him.
It’s time for a big trade to generate some excitement for the lost fan base. We need to increase our ticket sales and Marleau is not the answer. Why not a 3 way deal with Vegas? They could deal a quality defenseman (Emelin, Schmidt?), a good prospect (or depth roster player) and a high draft pick for Duchene or Galchenyuk or Nugent-Hopkins; we then get the desired center by trading draft pick(s), prospects or roster players to Vegas. I’d also be happy with James Neal. We finished 7th out of eight teams in the Metro division and need to be aggressive if we want a playoff spot.
I have to agree that it will take an imaginative trade to make things happen.
What about something like this?
MIN trades Dumba to COL and gets Fleury and a 3rd from CAR
COL trades Duchene to CAR and gets Dumba from MIN and 1st from CAR
CAR trade a 1st to COL and Fleury/2nd or 3rd to MIN and gets Duchene from COL.
Interesting creative way to get a deal done with a young top 4 defenseman for Colorado without actually giving one up.
I’m not sure how highly Minnesota values Dumba, but at a 50,000-foot level, something like this could work.
I like your creative thinking on this!
But for this particular scenario I think the price for Duchene (a promising defense prospect, a first, and a second round pick) is getting pretty up there, basically this is higher price than Mtl paid for Druin.
But maybe that is what it takes by now to get top 6 quality. I”d definitely pay that for another Col player who we shall not name, but Duchene I’m not quite sure.
I generally think it’s a fool’s game to play in the deep end of the UFA market. Those players always seem to get 2 years too many; it’s rare when a contract expires and there isn’t buyer’s remorse. It’s much better to go after the next tier of players and find serviceable players that incrementally move the needle. They aren’t sexy, maybe they don’t sell tickets, but they help win games.
All the top-end UFA’s want one of two things: either price AND term or a legitimate shot to win the Cup within 1-2 years. We aren’t really capable of offering either, at least not yet. I think it dramatically narrows the market of players who we can sign. Radulov, Oshie, Williams, Thornton, etc. are looking for things we can’t offer.
I like Marleau but agree that it’s a tough fit (even though I’m with RR and would go up to 3-yrs of term with him). I would rather us give one of our own prospect’s a chance before spending time with Yakupov. I do think Vrbata is interesting, but why would he leave for CAR if AZI is willing to pay him – it’s not that different over 2 years? Sam Gagner, on the other hand, is a very interesting candidate.
Ultimately, the best way for us to get the player we all want is through a trade, and maybe as blinkman suggests, through a creative one. There is still time.