Just when it looked like the 2018 NHL Draft might close out fairly quietly for the Carolina Hurricanes after a noisy Friday in terms of rumors….KABOOM!!!
The Hurricanes traded restricted free agents Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm to Calgary for defenseman Dougie Hamilton, forward Micheal Ferland and defense prospect Adam Fox.
Down below are my initial Twitter-size thoughts on the deal from when the news broke.
Here is the the more detailed version.
The crux of the deal
This deal is an incredibly complex one in terms of the number of things to be considered. There is of course the simple player swap but behind that are multiple other layers. The trade represents a pair of high stakes crystal ball player evaluations for Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. The deal includes an intertwined element of performance relative to salary with Lindholm and Hanifin both restricted free agents who will command sizable sums based at least as much on draft pedigree and potential as past performance. And the trade also requires decision-making related to the balance between building a winner for today versus having patience for young players to develop.
But when I sort through all of the angles as I will do in more detail below and try to boil the deal down to basics, it goes like this…
1) The Hurricanes traded two players with high-end ‘potential’ for one player who is a ‘now’ player at or near that high end.
2) The team addressed what I termed the second biggest need (first is always goaltending) by adding a top 4 defenseman to help solidify the second defense pairing. Though this is NOT the story of trading futures for an aging veteran (Hamilton is 25), there is an element of win now in addressing that need.
3) There is also an element of budget in play. We will not know exact costs until they sign, but indications are that Lindholm could be seeking $5 million per year, and I would not be surprised if Hanifin’s demands creep up near that neighborhood too for a long-term deal. So in effect, the team dropped $8-10 million of salary on players who had yet to become ‘difference-makers’ and added one who costs only $6 million who hopefully will immediately be a difference-maker. (Ferlund also makes $1.75 million, but he is a one-year commitment in a different type of true depth role.) If you guess Lindholm at 5 years for $5 million and Hanifin for 5 years at $4.5 million, the team stepped away from $47.5 million of potentially good but also highly risky contracts in favor of one for only $18 million and with significantly less risk.
Dougie Hamilton versus Noah Hanifin
The centerpiece of the deal is of course defenseman Dougie Hamilton. In an ironic twist of fate, Hamilton actually looks very much like what the Hurricanes had hoped (and now the Flames hope) Noah Hanifin would become. He is a big, rangy skating defenseman with the ability to contribute offensively and be a top-end skater even in an NHL with skating improving each and every year. His 17 goals and 44 points are similar to what one would hope for from a ‘peak Hanifin’. And his defensive game is at a bare minimum capable in a top 4 role (again at least in the range of what one would eventually hope for from Hanifin). So while certainly there is a chance that Hanifin surpasses Hamilton’s level, I think of it like this maybe.
Let’s call Hanifin’s ceiling a 95, and then maybe put Hamilton’s at 90. We can quibble over whether 90 should be 92 or 95 should be 100, but the point is that Hanifin’s ceiling is not significantly higher, if higher at all, than Hamilton’s. This is especially true since their strengths and skill sets are actually eerily similar. But the huge difference is where they are right now. As a player who is logging heavy minutes in a top 4 role and doing pretty well at it, the version of Dougie Hamilton that ended the 2017-18 season would rate at perhaps an 80. The version of Noah Hanifin that ended the 2017-18 rates very squarely as a decent but nothing special third pairing defenseman with decent offensive ability. Since capable third pairing defensemen price much lower and are easier to find, I think that rates at a 35 or 40. To put a ‘here and now’ context to it, if I had to win one game in March last season and could put only two out of three of Hanifin, Fleury and van Riemsdyk in my lineup, I would unquestionably have ranked van Riemsdyk #1 and would have had to debate my second choice. More directly, the 2017-18 version of Noah Hanifin was still a depth defenseman.
Because Noah Hanifin is only 21 years old compared to just turning 25 last week for Dougie Hamilton, Hanifin does have more potential to grow from where he is now whereas Hamilton is nearing the point where he just is what he is (which is pretty good). But there is absolutely no guarantee that Hanifin will ever get close to his high ceiling despite his draft pedigree. People like to preach patience and some magical 300-game mark for young defenseman. While players definitely mature and improve in their early years, the early NHL development tracks in today’s game mean that more and more players who will eventually be great show very clear signs of it very early. In my article entitled, “Harsh realities as the Carolina Hurricanes look to build a winner in 2018-19” I highlighted five players from Hanifin’s draft year or later who had already risen up to become legitimate top 4 defensemen.
So when you net out Hamilton versus Hanifin, the key thing is that you get a player who is top-4 capable right now. Not might be capable…Not could be capable next year. “Is” capable at least per his role in Calgary. And for that you give up a relatively small amount of upside maybe.
But what about Elias Lindholm, Micheal Ferland and Adam Fox?
But obviously this deal is not a one for one swap of Noah Hanifin for Dougie Hamilton. The Hurricanes were also required to add another high draft/high pedigree player in Elias Lindholm.
Though two years deeper into his NHL experience, Elias Lindholm is actually very similar to Hanifin. Lindholm has made gradual strides over five years of NHL experience. And he is a capable top 9 forward with a well-rounded skill set that can play in any situation. But as a player how has plateaued at mid-40s for points despite decent line mates and a healthy helping of power play ice time, he thus far has peaked at the level of a good but hardly irreplaceable depth forward. Does he still have upside? Certainly. But as a 23-year old with five years in the NHL, the chance that he just is not going to ever become a true “difference-maker” is fairly high at this point. And worth noting is that while a theoretical peak Lindholm who finds another gear could be hard to replace, the current ‘decent player, 45 points’ version of him is not. In fact, though being a little older, maybe not as high of upside and less impressive in terms of draft pedigree, Micheal Ferland production-wise is not necessarily a significant downgrade from Lindholm. Ferlund had 21 goals and 41 points compared to Lindholm’s 16 goals and 44 points.
In this comparison the potential long-term upside given up by the Hurricanes is a significantly higher, but when you consider that the Hurricanes added every-game edge and physicality in the form of pretty similar scoring, it is not clear to me that this is a significant ‘right now’ downgrade.
Finally, the Hurricanes netted a good mid-tier prospect in offensive defenseman Adam Fox. Fox will be a junior at Harvard this fall, and is an offensive type maybe a bit from the Jake Bean mold. Hopefully he makes the trip to Raleigh for prospect camp next week, so I can get a better read on his skill set. In any case, initial checks with people more familiar with him suggest he is more than just a throw in/lower tier prospect.
Where I land on the deal – A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
First, I think it is worth noting that this is the kind of deal that takes guts because in trading two high-pedigree players like Lindholm and Hanifin, the risk is clearly there that this deal blows up horribly in a relatively short period of time. At a general level, I like the aggressiveness. Last summer, the Hurricanes identified a couple top needs toward the beginning of the summer and then mostly chose not to address a big one (a scoring forward) because the price was too high, the deal was not there, or whatever else. You really only get one opportunity to restart about once a year, so without being reckless an element of urgency must be part of the recipe sometimes maybe even to the point where you overpay a bit.
As for the deal itself, I do feel like the Hurricanes overpaid slightly giving up two higher-end (potential-wise anyway) young players. But here is the thing. Exactly neither of Hanifin or Lindholm has become a difference-maker or tough to replace top half of the lineup player at the NHL level. In that regard, the starting point is plus 1 on the Hurricanes side of the ledger. Even if one of Lindholm or Hanifin takes that next step but without suddenly morphing into a superstar, that just evens the score at 1-1. It would take a jump to elite for one of Lindholm or Hanifin or both finding a higher gear. Even then, if it takes a couple years and the Hurricanes net a playoff berth with Hamilton anchoring one of the top defense pairings, the deal could still be worth it for the Hurricanes.
Saving the domino effect for tomorrow
As I already alluded to in my Twitter comment about Justin Faulk and Dougie Hamilton filling the same slot, I think this deal is just the beginning, but I will save the more indirect domino effect for another article hopefully on Sunday.
Initial Twitter-size thoughts from immediately after the deal was announced
1/? Initial thoughts…#Canes traded 2 high ceiling draft picks who had yet to play way into top half of lineup (Lindholm borderline) for one who did in Dougie Hamilton.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 23, 2018
2/? In terms of incoming, this move addresses team's 2nd biggest need (behind goaltending) which is finding a way to solidify 2nd D pairing. As much as Faulk was once capable and Hanifin projected to be, neither were top 4 quality in 2017-18.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 23, 2018
3/? There is a $ element to this. It would have been crystal ball bet committing $5M per year to either Lindholm or Hanifin. (Both could be worth it. Neither were there at end of 2017-18.) Instead they commit $6M to Hamilton who is much farther along.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 23, 2018
4/? Two questions emerge…1st question…Is Hamilton capable of anchoring/leading a 1st or 2nd pairing in which is the leader and his partner is maybe the lesser player?
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 23, 2018
5/? 2nd question…Is a @NHLCanes Justin Faulk trade the next shoe to drop? Hamilton is another right shot. That makes 1 of Faulk or Hamilton a $6M 3rd pairing defenseman who is also a duplicate for Trevor van Riemsdyk who was more than adequate in 2017-18.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 23, 2018
6/? Two other interesting side notes…Departure of Lindholm and Hanifin combined with step-wise development of Fleury mostly wipes out era of futures and fast forwards team to Necas and Svechnikov to provide the next high-draft boost.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 23, 2018
7/? Also interesting is how much Hamilton looks like at least the medium version of what Hanifin is projected to become as a big, rangy, skating defenseman with offensive ability.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 23, 2018
What say you Canes fans?
1) Yes or no on the deal?
2) Etc….
Go Canes!
Love this! We receive a point producing top 2-4 D, a top 9 LW with good size plus scoring touch, and a highly touted prospect (Harvard).
This may make Faulk even more expendable considering Dougie is right handed. Wish Hanifin and Lindy the best. This is a good shake up for the Canes.
One more thing to add, Dougie’s sheer size and workhorse style on the back end while being locked up for 3 more years will help this team take the crucial next steps. At 25, his best years are ahead.
Agree!!!
Wow! Poor Elias and Noah! I guess the rest of the roster will think twice before playing hardball with management in the future.
Faulk should be nervous, as it is getting crowded there on the right side.
I must admit that we got the better of that trade. Wow!
Huge win for Carolina. Hamilton is a top pairing guy signed for three years. Berglund is a big tough left wing who scored 21 goals and over 20 assists. Fox is is a highly touted right d. Excellent first big trade for Waddell.
I wish Hanifin and Lindholm the best. They were put in a tough position having no time to develop before the NHL. In my opinion, they had three years to develop under Peters and now they get more time to try that. I’m not sure how that will work out.
Carolina has added two top tier talents in past 24 hours. They have in increased their toughness in Bergulund. Increased depth in RD and center after the draft. Dundon has shown he will pull the trigger on big trades. Awesome weekend!!!
Sorry it’s Ferland not Berglund. My bad.
Also I wrote earlier in the week that I would like to get Hamilton but no way that’s happening. Glad to be wrong on that one!
Hopefully this means we’re in on other forward deals as well. Or does Skinner stay now?
I can’t believe this. Unless there is something wrong with Hamilton (he has been traded twice as a young player) this looks like a steal for Waddell.
I like the deals.
We have added a top 4 defenseman.
I think a Skinner trade must involve a top goalie.
I know I keep going on about this, but Faulk to Tor for Kapanen and Sparks is just oh so tempting. Keep Skinner and try to sign Lenner as a UFA.
Then we can give Darling another chance at redeeming himself (yes, I’ve been hard on him but I’d be happy if he proves me wrong).
We have Darling and Lenner as the goalie duo with a top prospect in Sparks waiting in the wings plus Ned or Helvig.
The RHD side of the defense has been upgraded. I have to look again at the left side, not sure what we have there, maybe the Swiss defenseman steps up or maybe one of the prospects.
Up front it looks like Aho, Necas, Staal and Rask. That is an upgrade on last year, at least on paper.
So far, so good.
I wish Hannifin and Lindholm the best. I would’ve liked to keep Lindholm but ultimately he failed to impress with Carolina. But the Flames will become one of the teams I support in the west.
Faulk for those 2 is giving them too much. I’d go Marner and Sparks. I’m not sad to see Hanifin go, but really thought Lindholm would be good centering for us. Since it seems he’ll play wing for Calgary, I wonder if he’s thrilled to be going there.
Wow … not what I was expecting … I’m going to miss Lindholm quite a bit – that is painful for me. But very happy with Hamilton – a tough stud we need.
Immediate reaction is that this deal seems good for us in ’18-19, but if Lindholm and Hanifin develop and we do not extend Ferland (a UFA after next year) or sign Fox this deal looks very different longer term.
Definitely a shake up. Think more must be coming because we’re now very thin/inexperienced at Center.
Wow, dmilleravid, I was going to respond but you captured my thoughts on the trade perfectly.
Definitely got a decent return but the potential we traded away hurts my heart.
Too early to evaluate this trade a lot will depend on what Lindholm and Hanifin sign for but I’m thrilled to get Ferland he is intense and tough to play against
What do we do with the left side of the defense?
Can Fleury step up and be a top 4 d?
Can TK take on a top 6 role in the NHL.
The UFA options are not bountiful:
Mike Green
CALVIN DE HAAN,
IAN COLE,
If Green is an LHD he might be the answer here, adding veteran depth to the left side.
True, the team’s top 4 centers I mentioned have almost 0 experience. That is a huge gamble.
Of course signing Tavares would solve it, but I don’t see TD do that.
The next options are PAUL STASTNY, big Joe or Tyler Bozak.
Maybe give big Joe a big one-year contract, give Necas and Aho a chance to develop. I’m not a huge fan of the idea.
No way should the Canes get Mike Green. The Canes have enough defensive breakdowns.
This trade raised my eyebrows. No way to know what the future holds, but at this point in time I like it.
Hamilton is a physically huge workhorse and adept scorer. We are immediately better on the backend and now Faulk can be traded for offensive firepower.
Trevor Carrick and Beaner are two who will compete hard for Hanifins slot. Beaner has a high offensive ceiling like Hanifin while Carrick is more of a solid defensive player. This should work out fine.
Lindholm may have a higher ceiling than Ferland, but at this point in time they are similar in production at quite different salaries.
I like this trade in every regard.
If we think in terms of an o and a safe and sound pairin I guess we have Slaven and Pesce, assuming slaven can step up, Fleury and Hammilton, with Fleury being the safe and sound and fill in the third pairing from TVR, assuming he resigns with one of the rising Checkers, preferably one with offensive potential.
The ironic part of this is the situation for Hanifin and Lindholm. They were both rumored to be disillusioned last year, and the resulting lack of effort is why they were on the auction block.
And where did they get traded to? Back to Coach Bill Peters.
It probably sucks to be them today, I wish them the best.
They must have been Bill Peters favorites, why else would the Flames trade their top D for them.
But, yes, I totally agree, this is ironic.
Now go sign Tavares at any price. Worry about the salary cap and where to park all of the new season ticket holders later.
Tavares has a list of 5 teams he will speak with. I would bet a whole lot of money the Canes aren’t on that list.
The Canes weren’t…
Damn, that would make for a freakin awesome team!!!
(with a goalie upgrade or a trusty backup)
Faulk and Hamilton both wear 27. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to say Faulk has probably played his last game in Raleigh. The team will not have a third pairing RD earning over 4 million.
I would be interested in Slavin and Hamilton working together in preseason. Fleury and Pesce try pairing together as well. Barring other trades these are the top 4 dmen for Carolina. Fleury had his rookie challenges but I think he can be a very solid 2nd pairing dman with some grit.
Check out Ferlund online. He has several fights on different sites. He is a scrapper but what interests me is why? In several circumstances a Flames player was hit and Ferlund was there to take up for his teammates. Absolutely essential for Carolina’s change of culture. I am looking forward to this guy riding shotgun for some of our young forwards.
If the canes sign Fox this trade is a huge plus. A lot of positive reports on this young player. Many here have wanted change since the offseason started. It is here. I also don’t have to call him the Russian anymore. Andrei Svechnikov is a Hurricane.
Sad to say, but players like Tavares don’t want to play for small market teams.
But not to worry. We already have an awesome team without him. The additions made in the last 48 hours make us even stronger.
I am very excited at the prospects for my beloved Canes this season.
We will be the “Overwhelming Underdogs “(this is what Yogi Berra called his Mets when he was their manager). I think it’s apt.
Rumor has it that our Mr. Waddell is talking to Toronto. Could it be that Faulk is heading to Canada? Or Skinny, or both?
I would bet on Faulk, but based upon today’s trade I no longer trust what Waddell says. (Not a bad thing). Think Faulk fits in a lot better on TO than Skinner. The Leafs don’t need scoring.
Think it is Faulk but I would want Nylander coming back. We would have to throw in a good prospect but it would be worth it. Do not want Kapanen, he hasn’t even really cracked the roster yet & played mostly on the 4th line. Marner would be a go too but don’t think they would do that. Sparks is a gamble & has no NHL experience. We need a top 2 center or a #1 goalie now.
You never know though, Skinny is from there so could be something he said he would waive his NMC for.
I can’t imagine they would give up Nylander. Offensive talent just short of Matthews, but his defensive game is even better. I would be shocked, but pleased, to see that trade.
The interesting thing about this trade, for me, is that aside from financial considerations, this is almost more about culture and philosophy then it is about skills. Peters had said more then once that he liked what Lindholm brought to the team and wasn’t worried about his offensive production. Not sure how Lindy feels about Peters, but I wouldn’t count on his O-game getting a whole lot better now.
We got two players who seem to be perfect for RBA, and may well have been on his Christmas list.
I do think a Faulk trade makes even more sense now, especially if we can improve the goaltending situation.
I lean even more towards keeping Skinner now, if we can work out a deal. He
gives us depth scoring, and hopefully RBA can get better 2 way play out of him. 7 and 7 sounds steep I know, but in the current market that’s probably what it will take. If we can’t get him signed this summer, though, I’d trade him now, as the remaining year makes him a lot easier to deal.
Finally some grit and toughness. Still need some more of the heavy game. I just don’t think the two leaving were going to bring any of that. It’s hard to imagine either one playing a different role in Calgary with the same coach they had for the last several years. To expect Lindholm’s production will rise significantly is hoping. Just need to find that young goalie to build around.
I wonder if this trade is setting the Canes up for a better protection during the next expansion draft.
I think the trade is ok as a trade. Hamilton is a good player and Ferland looks to be a serviceable winger. I really like the addition of Fox.
What concerns me is that the trade doesn’t address needs. Neither Hamilton nor Ferland has played on the penalty kill. If Nordstrom isn’t re-signed, then the PK really only has Staal as a veteran penalty killer. Also, Hamilton is talented, but being traded twice by age 25 is not a great endorsement. It appears the trade was mostly what powerless mentioned–sending a message about money. That is not the best strategy to return the organization to the playoffs.
The other concern is that I am not sure how this changes the culture–none of us ever questioned Lindholm’s effort (the fact that he was drafted too high yes, but not his commitment to playing to win). On the other hand, Hamilton and Ferland didn’t get the Flames into the playoffs, so hard to argue they are part of a winning culture.
This deal is good for the Canes if Hamilton scores 15/45 and Hanifin and Lindholm do no better than last season. If Hanifin or Lindholm progress up to another level, then it is a poor deal for the Canes. Though as I said, I like Fox, who might end up being the best part of this deal in 3 years–so there is that.
Just watching some Ferland highlights… taking in all the changes since Peters left, I think this team is going to be a lot of fun to watch, and a lot of fun to play for.
And it looks like Ferland brings a lot of what the Tkachuk boosters were looking for.
This is a sneaky good trade. Obtaining a proven top RHD in Hamilton now sets the stage to trade Faulk. Edmonton needs a RHD that can improve their woeful power-play; maybe Faulk for LHD Oscar Klefbom. That outcome would certainly be more than most could have ever hoped for to improve the Canes defense as well as addressing our power-play needs.
Obtaining right-wing Svechnikov weakened Lindholm’s negotiating leverage. When Lindholm and agent rejected the Canes offer Dundon pulled the trigger on the deal. This is how you effectively run an organization. Ferlund has good size, works the corners well, and WILL DROP THE GLOVES.
Adam Fox is a premier defensive prospect and is the wildcard here.
Wow. I am just going to stop writing and just put up placeholders. So many great opinions and viewpoints. 🙂
I will probably write it up in more detail, but I think this is the 1st of 3 steps for the defense. As I said on Twitter, I would be surprised if Faulk is not traded now. It doesn’t make sense to spend $6M on a 3rd right shot defenseman, especially with van Riemsdyk performing well in that role last season. Then that last step is to add another top 4-capable left shot defenseman. That could come in a Skinner or Faulk trade, or there are at least a couple options via free agency.
That gives you a pretty solid Slavin/Pesce, ____/Hamilton, Fleury/van Riemsdyk with decent AHL depth like McKeown and Carrick and the possibility of adding another lower-end #7 for less than $1M to replace Dahlbeck.
Step by step…
Just a comment on the D, I think I would rather have one of Toronto’s top end forwards. Toronto make a ton of sense for a trade.
Slavin/Pesce
Fleury/Hamilton
Carrick/van Riemsdyk
#7 McKeown
Not sure we need that veteran D. Just an opinion. Carrick has grit.
I would like to see what Carrick can do. He seems to be the man left out by the old regime. McKeown looks OK, but he sure doesn’t blow me away.
I think Fleury can get it done. Needs a shot of confidence that I believe Brind’Amour will give him. Helped that he kicked ass in the AHL playoffs. One of the guys I think will benefit most from Peters not riding his ass every day.
As I mentioned above, I really like Fox. However, on some Calgary-related sites there is talk that Fox’s agent informed the Flames that he wouldn’t be signing after college. As far as I know, the Canes don’t have a commitment. If that is the case, this trade is pretty much in Calgary’s favor.
I say that because Lindholm was the best option to center Svechnikov. It appears that Necas will be thrown into that role (though I can see tj’s argument that Staal is an option). That seems a lot like putting Necas into the position that Lindholm was in his first few seasons.
From other comments, I think I am in the minority in being convinced that Aho is ready to be a scoring line center. But if I am wrong, then the Canes have Staal and Rask as centers. The trade puts the Canes back into the position of being light for this coming season at C.
So from my most objective point of view (I know there really is no such thing):
Additions–
1) the Canes power play is improved with Hamilton. Ferland can play on the second unit if needed. However, the power play was already going to be better with the additions of Svechnikov and Zykov.
2) Hamilton is an upgrade as second pairing RD–which means Faulk is even more likely to be traded, maybe that results in a forward who can center Svech.
3) Fox if Carolina has a good season and he decides to sign.
Subtractions–
1) The penalty kill. Lindholm was a key on the PK. He won’t be easily replaced.
2) Potential. We can all admit that Hamilton is at his peak, while Hanifin and Lindholm may have room for improvement.
3) Center options–as mentioned above.
So not a bad trade, but not going to immediately make the Canes contenders.
25 doesn’t, by any means, mean he’s done improving. He may not have a crazy level of better play inside him, but he certainly could have better years ahead of him in terms of thinking and being comfortable with the NHL game. Defensemen take longer to really settle in than forwards.
It looks to be a good trade. Dougie Hamilton was their best D. Micheal Ferlund scored a lot and brings somethings we really need, grit. We did not trade up to get Tkachuk (I would have liked that too powerless) but we got some grit finally. Adam Fox sounds like a pretty hot prospect. I wonder what the deal was with Calgary thinking they could not sign him. I wonder if we will be in the same boat.
We lost two really good guys. Either can still break out, which was certainly the driving factor for Calgary. They were both RFAs pushing for contracts which they really have not earned yet. I think that sends a pretty strong message. The day of accountability is here and TD is going to demand it. A coach who will demand it as well. Skinner may still be around. RBA may make him more of a two way player.
I would be real surprised if Faulk is not traded. Toronto makes perfect sense. They need D, big time, and they have high end forwards we could use. It could happen, they need to address the D situation they have. It could bring some real value. Faulk would be a 3rd paring RHD at this point.
The more I think about this deal, the more I agree with brinkman. This is a sneaky good deal. Both Hamilto and Ferland are the icing on the cake for the culture change we need.
It is not just a couple of rough guys added to the team. We now have the catalysts we need. Hamilton and Carrick will keep the crease and slot clear of enemy opportunists. They will see to it that we win battles for the puck along the boards and behind the net. They will also cause enemy forecheckers to look over their shoulders.
Ferland will cause havoc in front of the enemy net and everywhere else in the “o” zone as well as the neutral zone. He will also inspire players like Martinook, McGinn, Zykov. Gauthier, et al to turn loose their inner gritty players. Knowing that there are others who will effectively back your play does wonders for one’s willingness to skate into harm’s way.
Armed with physical confidence, the scorers will score. With a team like that in front of him, any goalkeeper will play his best game.
Teammates like Willy and our new veterans will instill an expectation of success and winning into our kids.
The consequence of this will be fans in the seats having more fun than they have in a long time.
Now that’s what I call a culture change.
Sorry blinkman not brinkman.
I have said before that Aho/TT needed a big forward who is not shy about sticking up for teammates. I believe Ferland is that guy. Much in the way Wilson has a role in Washington. Is Ferland a 1st line player in offensive skill- no. Yet I think he can have a role with Aho/TT. He played 1st line in Calgary, so maybe he gets a chance in Raleigh.
Matt- I didn’t understand your tweets. Are you concerned that Hamilton cannot handle top four minutes unless protected?
Not so much that he cannot handle just that I think there is a transition for him. Not sure who his partner will be yet (quite possibly someone not yet on the roster), but there is a decent chance that it is a downgrade from Giordano. So is Hamilton: 1) The type of #2/#3 defenseman that can drive a pairing even if his partner is a lesser defenseman; 2) A defenseman who can do his half but needs an equal half to be successful; 3) A capable #4 but only with a partner who is the stronger half.
Most people generically talk about 1st or 2nd pairing or top 4, but the roles and required level of play to be successful are partially partner dependent (at least for most defensemen).
From a post I wrote elsewhere this evening:
======
I heard about the trade late in the day so I am still processing my thoughts.
I am not surprised we traded Hanifin – it doesn’t matter how good he becomes in the future or with what organization. He wasn’t happy here and that is not good for team culture.
(Edit – but let me add for C&C an “I told you so” that he was going! LOL!)
Lindy plays best when he plays with an edge – something he did the last half of 2016-17, but not at all (consistently) last season. RBA identified him as one player he wanted to help improve – and if someone was going to lead Lindy back to edgy play it was probably RBA. But that is a big gap in the salary negotiations – I don’t think 4+ was an unfair offering, but 5 with term was too much; we have a lot of players looking for raises in coming years, for one thing. And is he a 5×5 contract???
Both are RFAs – I expect Calgary will overpay Lindy and regret it 3 or 4 years down the road. Hanifin is a wild card but, again, it doesn’t matter because he wasn’t happy here.
We get a high-scoring RHD with 3 years left and a hefty cap hit. There are rumors of locker-room and attitude issues – particularly in the final stretch of last season. But he is the reason we can let Faulk go – with Pesce and TvR I don’t think we add a RHD unless that is the plan.
We also get a 20-goal scorer on the left wing who likes to hit (and his name is not Brock McGinn) and is on his contract year. With his improvement the last two years and his reputation you know he is going to bring game this year, even if he doesn’t sign next year with us.
We will probably never see the Harvard .D-man either. He looks to be going for FA after college. I don’t think we will have any more luck than the Flames in luring him here.
Overall, I think this trade is a huge short-term win for us.
Down the road it may look like we made a huge mistake – if Hanifin becomes the star we all thought he would be (if BP was the reason he wasn’t such a star here, BP will be the reason he is not that star there) or Lindy finds that gear. But that’s hindsight, and what we have traded for is the ability to improve today, particularly as our young F’s step out of Charlotte, and we (apparently) continue to seek to move a couple of other players.
You know, a lot is being said about Lindholm not being worth $5 million, and in last year’s NHL, he probably wasn’t. But I also don’t think it was an individual Lindholm being stubborn, with a 7% increase in salary cap (plus the whole commitment to his future bit) I still maintain it was not really a ridiculous amount to pay.
But the deed has been done, the culture move has been made, let’s see how it plays out. I’ll be supremely interested to see this follow up trade. I also hear a lot of Toronto talk, but in my heart I still feel like the situation is too perfect for us and Edmonton not to make a deal.
This is rarely the case Matt, I respect your opinion a lot and usually agree with most of what you say, but I gotta strongly disagree with you on a lot of stuff in this article.
Hanifin and Lindholm could each become stars. It doesn’t really mean we should have kept them. I do not think either one of them would become top pairing/top line players in Raleigh. Many rumors are that neither wanted to be here that badly. That mindset will not lend itself to a whole lot of improvement. And being under BP again I gotta say I doubt things really change for them in Calgary, either. Dougie is a borderline elite NHL defenseman, just turned 25, and has three years left on his deal. Again… he already is what we HOPED Hanifin would be. He’s elite offensively, tied for first among NHL defensemen last year with 17 goals, with four straight 10+ goal, 40+ point seasons, 3 straight of at least 81 games, and an improvement in the goals department every year. Defensively, he’s not phenomenal, but he’s certainly not a liability, either. And he’s a whole lot more adequate than Hanifin has been. He’s also been a plus player the last couple years for an average-ish Calgary team (pretty good two years ago though when he was plus-12). To me, huge advantage Hamilton. At worst, this is a wash if Hanifin pans out. But I think this trade could look like a fleecing in a few years.
Ferland is big, physical, sets the tone, makes winning plays, and can score. Lindholm fit that bill… about 25% of the time. You saw those flashes that made you hope for more, and I don’t see that consistentcy ever being reached in Raleigh. I don’t see Ferland scoring 20 goals, 40 points here, he could be put on a line with Aho and Teravainen and probably be a solid fit much like he was with Gaudreau and Monahan which is likely why that production is where it was, but he’s a very good third liner either way. We have top six options coming in (Necas, Svechnikov) to replace, and improve upon, Lindholm. Therefore a talented player that fills a need slots into our third or maybe second line and improves our depth all things considered. This, too, is essentially a toss up to me.
Then you add in Adam Fox. Mid-tier prospect is not the term I’ve gotten whatsoever. I’ve seen analysts who consider him a top 25 prospect in hockey. He’s a new age, fleet footed, puck moving offensive defenseman – and a good one. The only reason he was moved were signability concerns that seemed kind of silly to me. Just look at this:
Quinn Hughes, 7th OA pick, freshman season: 37 GP – 5 G – 24 A – 29 P – +14 (I had originally thought this comparison was a bit off since it was his draft year, but due to his very late birthday their ages are, essentially, the same)
Adam Fox, freshman season: 35 GP – 6 G – 34 A – 40 PTS – +19. He’s put up 68 points in 64 games AS A FRESHMAN AND SOPHOMORE in the NCAA. That’s great production for any player, let alone a defenseman. There was a legitimate question raised of whether or not he could push for a roster spot this fall, but he wants to return to college for one more season.
Again. As I mentioned earlier, those two for two players I still would have been happy with this trade. But we also got a player who compares favorably to a right handed version of the kid who just went 7th overall. We’ll see how he looks in development camp and over the next year+, but I see a very easy road to this trade being a HUGE win for the Canes. Only time will tell. But either way, I was a little nervous about Dundon and Waddell running the show. And now, I’m thrilled with the start they are off to.
Note: in the Hughes/Fox comparison obviously I meant ages “were” the same at the time of their freshmen seasons, not that they are the same age.
Note 2: maybe saying the signability concerns were “silly” wasn’t the best way to put it, but if this team can show the improvements that I think the roster is starting to shape up to make (goalie though…), I think we can ink him to a deal. We better try damned hard either way. Can’t help but think we’ll be speaking with his agent and I assume we did even before this deal was finalized, I feel like if his camp had said “nah, wants to be a FA”, why include him in the deal? Would make zero sense to me.
The Hughes pick was easily the worst of the first round. Gigantic risk that kid will be a big zero. Ryan Murphy revisited.
…………..
Have you seen him play..
Yep. Insanely high risk. Kid is tiny. He wasn’t even that productive as a freshman at Michigan. He could make it and be a NHL player, but the risk that the NHL is over his head physically is high. Third round? Sure. First round? No way.
I’ll respectfully disagree with that sentiment. He’s an elite skater and has elite hockey sense. I don’t see him as a Ryan Murphy risk whatsoever and think he’s more like Gostisbehere.
Talking about trades: Just wanted to put this here for those who haven’t seen this yet or didn’t know —
From an article in The Athletic by Pierre LeBrun about trades that were close to happening.
“the Carolina Hurricanes were supposedly close on sending winger Victor Rask to the Montreal Canadiens, but the asking price of two second-round picks in this draft (including the No. 35 pick) was too much for the Canadiens.”
Dam*^t, so close. But at least we know they are trying to dump Rask & his exorbitant salary now.
I would have taken 1 second rounder. Montreal may have the worst front office in hockey. They took Semin from us too.
That’s an insane return for a 4M$ bottom six player, even if he’s a solid two-way player.
Go sign Tavares at any price. The benefit will far out weigh the price at $20M per year,
Just go win the cup and quit counting pennies.
15.9 is max deal if I’m not mistaken. He’s not coming here.
My comments are based upon the following premises:
1. We didn’t have a playoff team last year with Hanifin and Lindholm playing big minutes.
2. Both players were looking for big raises without any underlying stats to support their demands. Their demands were only supported by potential.
3. Our team needed to get bigger and stronger with some grit to its play.
4. We needed more firepower from the point than what we got out of our defensemen last year.
So how does the trade work out. Let’s start with Hamilton for Hanifin. On a straight up basis for our needs for THIS upcoming season Hamilton is a better bet to get us closer to the playoffs IMO. I can’t be bothered worrying about how Hanifin develops over the years. We need performance NOW. Hamilton is bigger, stronger, provides more offense, is better defensively right now than Hanifin. While Hanifin is taking his time developing, we will have the opportunity to develop more defensemen andif we sign Fox we already have a player with the same credentials that Hanifin had. Last year Bryan Burke, who was in a management position with Calgary, was asked about rumors that suggested he was going to trade Hamilton. Burke’s answer to that question was who in their right mind would trade a mobile 220 pound round handed shooting all-star level defenseman, who plays the power play and penalty kill. Burke left Calgary after last season. Apparently the existing GM wasn’t as smart IMO.
2. Ferland for Lindholm. Like all Canes fans I liked Lindholm, but I liked him better after the 2016-17 season than I did after the 2017-18 season. Lindholm was very streaky last year and didn’t play with the same grit and intensity that he did in the prior year IMO. Right now I would rate Ferland and Lindholm as equals with Lindholm, based upon his draft status, having more upside if I were looking at this deal in a vacum. But I am NOT looking at it in a vacumn. Based upon our current needs Ferland brings more equal or better scoring, more grit, and decent defense compared to Lindholm. Our system is loaded with forwards with “potential” to do develop into what we think Lindholm might develop into so there is no reason for me to overvalue him. He had his opportunity to develop here and plateaued out. Being a Lindholm fan I hope he does well in Calgary, but I am happy we got Ferland.
Fox, if we eventually sign him has all the same raving reports about his performance that Hanifin had when he came out of college. Thus we have the potential (since many of you contributors want to emphasize potential) to replace Hanifin immediately with a look-a-like while in effect getting Hamilton as a bonus.
If you got this far reading let me caution you again that no one has ever equated me and my knowledge with that of a Nostradamus. Read and believe at your own risk. I feel safe with my opinions being correct as I always do because my margin for error is plus or minus infinity.
The trade was not the only decision made yesterday. There were several draft decisions.
Taken together they do signify a culture change. For me the thing that stands out is the type of players the organization drafted on day 2. In the past 3 drafts the Canes drafted 1 player (Aho) less than 6 feet tall. That was out of 26 choices. Yesterday they drafted 3 out of 5 choices.
While I think two of the picks from yesterday (Drury and Killinen) are fine and one (Sellgren) could work out, the draft as a whole was uninspiring and looks like a definite change in philosophy. It could be that the scouts now believe that the organization has enough size, or it could be an intentional move to repudiate a direction that was specifically set by RF. The latter would add to the understanding of why Hanifin and Linholm were traded before Skinner and Faulk. The former two being more connected to the Francis regime.
There might be more at play than is apparent.
When RF left so did the head of scouting, who was a personal friend of RF. I wonder how much of a hit our scouting will take as a result. The former guy was obviously excellent.
I am trying to figure out if this response is sarcastic? I beleive the Canes drafting has left a lot to be desired. A recent article pointed out that for players drafted after #50 there was no more likelihood of them making it to the NHL than any other later draft pick. So, after #50 it’s an educated guess. Judging by the top picks of the Canes under Francis they may have been better than Rutherford, but that’s not saying much.
I am talking about the scouting that got us Aho in the 2R, Pesce in the 3R, and Slavin in the 4R. Plus those prospects knocking on the door in Charlotte. Our scouting has been pretty good the past 3-4 years.
The more I think about this trade the more I consider it a huge win for the Canes. Hamilton is far better than Hanifin. Hanifin has shown me zero growth between the ears. I know this is a generalization, but like a typical player who grew up in Boston. Thinks he is better than he is, which limits their development.
The Canes can now trade Faulk if they want. Or….they could keep him and play him in a different role. Third paring D/powerplay specialist. I realize this leaves out VanRiemsdyk. He’s a nice third paring player, but not a key to the team. I like the flexibility this gives the Canes. Also may challenge Faulk to improve his game when he loses his letter and gets demoted to third pairing play.
The best thing they can do for Hamilton is make him a second pairing D. Let Slaving and Pesce do what they do best; shut down the other team’s top line. Take that responsibility from Hamilton and his offensive game could grow even more. The benefits of depth!!
Fox is a nice prospect. I doubt he has any interest in the Canes right now, but if they have a strong season he may change his mind. If he refuses to show up for prospect camp that will be a bad sign.
Ferland is a big upgrade on Lindholm IMO. A player that keeps getting better versus one who doesn’t. A hard player versus a soft player. Lindholm has potential, but potential doesn’t win games.
Can you tell I love this trade?
The other thing this trade does is make the team a little older and more mature. Hamilton (25) vs. Hanifin (21) and Ferland (26) vs. Lindholm (23).
If Ryan and Nordstrom are not re-signed and are replaced by youth from CLT (take your pick), and then Svetch and maybe Necas – both under 20 -make the team, we’re would have been even younger next year than we were last year.
I’m warming to this deal.
I wonder if Mtch Marner can be pried loose from Tor, along with Sparks for Faulk. M understanding is that Kapanen is good but never got a fair chance to crack the lineup, but it is true that he is a bit of a gamble and we have a lot of forwards, especially wingers waiting in the, … wings.
Oilers claim that RNH is not available, wonder if Leon Draisaitl might be. It’s an awfullhy high price tag and a longterm deal, but the kid has showed flashes of brilliance and the Oilers must be pushing up against the cap, even with the increase.
I doubt TD would do it but Faulk, Skinner and Rask to the Oilers in return for Draisaitl , Klefbom, and taking on Lucic’s contract. Yes, I know, it is a ridiculous deal, but that’s the fun of the fansites.
I heard that we offered the Caps a better deal for Grubauer than Colorado but Washington didn’t want him playing in the Metro division. Reportedly we were willing to take on the Orpik contract and give up the 42nd pick. We are not done making deals.
Call me “old-school” but a team has deficiencies when 185 lb Brock McGinn is our toughest player. Lindholm = zero fights; Ferland is a wrecking ball that hits and sticks up for his teammates. And he will cost about $3M less (this year at least). Check out Ferland’s fights at hockeyfights.com – he rarely loses and looks ferocious. This is smart insurance and way more affordable than Milan Lucic. Reminds me of Scott Walker except bigger.
Good to see Tom Dundon executing the plan and strategy.
Have been doing yard work all afternoon. To keep the sun at bay I wore a hat–my GM hat. The following points seemed to come the more I thought about the Hanifin/Lindholm trade. I don’t like where it led, but it is very logical from a GM perspective.
~I have been reading HF boards the last month or so. While the trade section had much discussion of Skinner and Faulk, other teams’ fans gave the highest value to three Canes–two of whom were Hanifin and Lindholm.
~The Canes have too much salary tied up in RD
~Toronto is said to be seriously going after Tavares
~Toronto won’t be able to keep Matthews/Marner/Nylander and sign Tavares
~If Toronto is able to acquire JT, then the one piece they are missing is a shut down RD
~The player who other teams value highly is Brett Pesce
~As a fan I would hate to see Pesce moved; as a GM moving Pesce (plus a prospect) for Nylander adds a lot of options:
1) Nylander might be ready to play center–he could center Svech (and Ferland might even make sense as LW since he played well on a scoring line featuring Monahan and Gaudreau). This scenario creates two scoring lines (TAZ would be the other) and allows Staal to center a disruption line.
2) Nylander could also play RW with Aho at C and TT moved back to LW. Nylander would be able to take some face-offs on this line. That would allow Staal to center Svech.
3) Nylander helps the power play.
Toronto is likely to save $2-2.5M on this deal as Nylander is looking in the $6.5M range on his next deal. That added to the savings from not keeping JVR and Bozak might be enough to make Tavares a reasonable offer.
The regulars here know I have very high regard for Pesce and would hate to see him moved. However, I am pretty sure he has more value than Faulk and is $800k cheaper. If the decision-makers want a big return, then I think Pesce will be offered. The hope will be that Slavin/Hamilton will be a true 1st pairing.
Not at all a fan of considering trading Pesce. The thing the Canes need most on defense is steadiness, and in 2017-18, I would rate Pesce #1 on the the blue line for steadiness (yes ahead of Slavin by a small margin). Van Riemsdyk was also very sound and consistent though in a less-pressured role/slot.
My math says that the team entered the offseason short 2 sound top 4 defenseman, and we learned last year where “might be, could be, hope to be” can end up.
Just like I said with Darling last summer, I would ignore ‘transition risk’ at your own peril, but Hamilton at least projects to be a 3rd. Ideally, the Canes still need to add not subtract another ‘steady’ defenseman.
My word for last summer was ‘difference-maker’ for the forward need (that was not met). My word for this summer (at least one of them) is ‘steady’ for the 2nd defense pairing.
I was also thinking this. I LOVE PEsce just like Matt and I am so NOT a fan of moving him – but perhaps that feeling is exactly the reason why the Canes could pry out an AMAZING talent forward for him? I love him to death really I’d hate to see Pesce go but if the Leafs were willing to trade Mitch Marner for Brett Pesce I would HAVE to do it.
Would I trade Nylander for Pesce? I’d say VERY close to yes but maybe just on the side of no because that’s how highly I value Pesce. But if they made it Marner you got to do that if you are Carolina.
From a defensive standpoint going with Faulk and Hamilton on the right side is not IDEAL but from an offensive standpoint it is VERY good and if Pesce nets you a guaranteed 55-70 pt forward who is YOUNG and controllable you might have to go for it.
In the end of the day Faulk isn’t going to net you that great a return compared to Pesce. Skinner is in the same boat as Faulk. They could return lateral type players in similar contract situations likely but to trade an elite shutdown dman like Pesce for a guy like Marner could become the Canes version of Hall for Larrson.
You are both right. The Canes need more stability on D, not less. Still, I would certainly trade Pesce for Marner just like I would trade Aho for McDavid. Neither are going to happen.
Matt. I agree with you that Pesce is valuable. I also think that Lindholm was the team’s best shot at a playmaking center for Svechnikov. The recent trade tells me that Waddell/Dundon are more concerned with making a splash. It doesn’t look good if that splash isn’t immediately playing 1st pairing D. We both agree that Pesce is a better shut-down defenseman than Hamilton. However, if the team trades Faulk, then who plays on the second power play? My guess is that Dundon understands how to improve scoring, but to get to your level of D appreciation is not easy. If Hamilton and Faulk both get double digit goals–mainly from the power play–the front office looks really smart. If Pesce makes the correct play over and over, there isn’t much to crow about. All that being said, I hope you are correct and the front office won’t consider moving Pesce.
It seems like the team’s primary needs right now are the goalie situation (even with giving DArling a fresh start change, the team needs a viable backup option) and insurance on D (if Faulk is not moved).
I think Lenner would be a good shot for Carolina, he’s not perfect but he is a UFA and he plays with an edge.
I think Da Hahn might be a safe and sound option on D probably at a reasonable price tag.
The team is thin at centers with experience. There’s a lot of offensive players available, the pool is exciting, but the team may need a center to tie the pieces together instead of relying on two guys with huge upside but limited experience at C, one with no experience in the nHL.
The two looming decisions for the cAnes are whether to trade Faulk or Skinner to address any of these needs, keeping in mind that trading Faulk thins the RHD pool and may create a need of its own. It’s all about what the canes get in return and whether it’s worth it.
I think Tor wants to make a statement signing in Tavares and there are the makings of a deal.
Matt you are absolutely spot on in your analysis here. I have a friend of mine who is a Calgary Flames fan and we talked at depth about this deal and what each team was getting.
A very good piece of information that I didn’t know regarding Micheal Ferland – I assumed he was like a Pat Marroon/Tom Wilson type but my friend described him more as an offensive type player with a big time shot who is not afraid to play physical. It seems like clearly he is more physical than Lindholm but the aspect I did not realize is that he plays more of a ‘skill game’ than I think we realize. Overall the main difference is that apparently Ferland is a shooter (my friend even refered to him as a sniper) while Lindholm is a primary playmaker. So if the Canes traded out passing for shooting – and some short term cap savings along with not losing too much skill, I feel a lot better about the Ferland – Lindholm gap.
As for the rest of the deal I mean I think Matt you are even selling Hamilton’s ceiling as ‘medium’ Hanifin as a bit short. Hamiliton is a quality top 4 dman whose offense brings him into a top pairing category that not many dmen in the league compare to. Hanifin may reach that level someday but as the Canes shift to a WIN NOW mode and considering a significant chunk of the core is already very young – I approve of adding a more ‘veteran 25 yr old’ dman in Hamilton.
Personality issues? Who knows but apparently I read a funny article that Hamilton went to a museum while his teammates were out to lunch at Moxies. Hey if he’s a quiet introspective type whatever just give me 40 + pts and passable defense and he can go to as many musuems as he wants. It’s hard to imagine though the Canes are desiring to add competitive culture into the organization and here they acquire a guy whose biggest complaint is “he doesn’t care enough about losing/he’s content with losing”.
Overall I’d say this trade was a short term BIG WIN for the Canes – long term we will see how it turns out I’m more sold on Hanifin reaching a higher gear and maybe becoming better than Hamilton down the road than Lindholm becoming some elite first line winger with good linemates. Lindholm will remain solid but I don’t think he’s this ‘answer’ Calgary needed in their top 6.
I wonder where Ferland fits into the lineup? Does he fit as a protector with Terevainen and Aho to allow Aho to shift to center? Does he serve as an upgrade on Stempniak playing with an offensive 3rd line with Skinner? Considering the scouting report I recieved was that Ferland is a shooter with a physical edge I don’t see him as much fitting with Jordan Staal unless they add a playmaker to that line. I doubt they brought him in to play on the 4th line and unless he just tanks next year I imagine Ferland will either be playing on the top line as a support guy or maybe on the 3rd line.
Overall it seems like McGinn and Ferland might as well be clones am I right? 30-40 pt physical players with decent offensive games especially shooting.
From what I’ve seen, people notice it a lot more when Ferland hits them. His highlight videos are loaded with devastating, totally clean hits.
If the plan before the trade was to use Lindholm at Center, then we are at least one Center short. So where are we now, using Matt-like objectivity (ie., not being hopeful):
Under Contract –
Staal – solid, more than reliable, but not a 1C or likely to give more than 50+ points
Aho – we know what he is on the wing but until he shows us he can play defense and win draws, he’s a big if. Reminds me of the discussion we had about Hanifin in a Top-4 role this time last year and it didn’t happen.
Rask – after a down year, has something to prove, but not a 1C. Unspectacular but serviceable when on his game. Is he a Top-9 center? Not if he doesn’t outperform last year.
Necas – huge upside but completely unproven in any NHL role. Probably could use more seasoning. Could he be our version of Barzal? I wouldn’t bet on it next year.
Wallmark – again, solid in the Rask/Ryan sense but not going to drive a top scoring line. Bottom-6 guy with very limited NHL experience.
Roy/Saarela/Kuokkanen – at least another year away from regular NHL duty (barring injury)
Ryan – a UFA and no one is thinking he’ll be re-signed.
Conclusion – we have youth and plenty of upside but no experience. That’s at least as big a risk as we had entering last season with our young blue-line.
I would not be surprised in we are in on ROR once BUF pays his bonus. I could easily see giving up Faulk + a package that might include Rask/Wallmark/Roy. I still think RNH may be available for Faulk+package. There are other options out there – I don’t remember anyone mentioning Dougie Hamilton prior to the trade and that was a huge addition – so there are always other possibilities. If I learned anything this past weekend, it’s that something unexpected likely will happen.
I don’t know about any of these hypothetical trades, but I do not feel comfortable entering the season without plugging this hole. I’m sure the brain trust is working on it.
First, I don’t think the Canes are done dealing. I will be moderately surprised if Faulk is on the roster come midnight Saturday, and that could yield a center.
But with the current group, I think it’s a 2 and 2 thing.
The team has 2 centers that it can “trust” in Jordan Staal and Victor Rask. I like Rask with Williams if they can add a wing with more speed and forechecking attack (and ideally offensive boost). And Jordan Staal even with modest help forms a good defensive line. That leaves 2 centers in “training. Aho’s line that plays heavy minutes in offensive situations and (ONLY if he earns it) a Necas-centered line that you use a bit more opportunistically carefully at least at first. To be clear, Aho is not in training offensively, but he is defensively. I think the biggest thing with him is that he still plays a little bit too much of a European game (bigger ice/more space) defending areas instead of more aggressively closing ground/defending specific players.
The center position has been an issue for the Canes for a while. Aho may be capable of being a top line center, but we won’t know for a while. Hate to see his offensive production drop because of defensive responsibilities. He certainly can handle those responsibilities as a wing, but as a center it is yet to be proven.
Relying on an undersized 19 year old who played less than 50 games last season to start as an NHL centerman is a bit much. I’m as bullish on Necas as the next guy, but folks are sure expecting a lot from him next season. Unless he blows everyone away at camp he is best off getting a full season of games at the AHL level, IMO.
Finally, it remains to be seen what trades the Canes pull off in the next few weeks. A ray of light in the goaltending department is issue #1. A serviceable centreman is probably #2.
ct – you are viewing this as a talent evaluation. I do believe Rask is one o the centers that ownership wants to move and management has tried. I expect management will continue to try to move him – although picks were probably the best form of return so he may still be on the roster.
I do expect both Skinner and Faulk gone, however.
By my back-of-the-envelope calculation we could have a 50% roster turnover this season.