On Thursday afternoon the Carolina Hurricanes announced that they had traded center Victor Rask to the Minnesota Wild for wing Nino Niederreiter.
At a basic level, the trade was a ‘change of scenery’ type swap of two mid-priced players who were underperforming relative to their salary and currently struggling to find a role with their current teams.
Victor Rask
Less than two years ago, Victor Rask was signed to a six-year contract for $4 million per year. When signed, Rask was 22 years old and coming off of a 21-goal, 48-point season. Equally significantly, at the time he seemed to be still on the rise. That 48-point season was only his second in the NHL and was a nice step up from the 33 points that he scored as a rookie the year before. But the 2016-17 saw him plateau with a similar 45 points and five fewer goals. Then the 2017-18 season saw Rask take a significant step backwards especially in the first half of the season. When the dust settled on the 2017-18 season, Rask had rebounded enough late to offer some hope but was very clearly headed into the 2018-19 season needing to find a higher gear. With Sebastian Aho moving to center, Jordan Staal anchored in the second slot and the team hoping that Martin Necas would be ready for the NHL, Rask slotted as a depth forward ideally to end up in the C4 slot and hopefully rebound and play his way up from there. But then a kitchen accident delayed the start of his 2018-19 season. Now 26 games deep into the season, Rask has mustered only six scoring points and has not done much to boost his standing from where he left off last season. With Lucas Wallmark acclimating well at the NHL level and filling a similar role and Clark Bishop and Greg McKegg proving capable of filling in, Victor Rask probably slots as a healthy extra and fifth center when Jordan Staal returns to the lineup. If one looks out a couple years, the team would ideally like to add another more scoring-oriented center to the mix which also makes Rask not a great fit looking forward.
When one considers Rask’s current role, the team’s needs and the hoped for road map going forward, Rask has very much become a spare part whose $4 million yearly salary was too high for where he fit.
As such, the Hurricanes had every incentive to move Rask if for no other reason than to free up his salary.
Nino Niederreiter
Nino Niederreiter in many ways is the Minnesota equivalent of Rask. After the New York Islanders who drafted him #5 overall decided to part ways early after a ‘meh’ rookie season, Niederreiter developed gradually with the Wild posting 36, 37 and 43 points before a well-timed breakout season that saw him net 25 goals and 57 points in a contract year. Like Rask, he was a rising young player who seemed to have the best ahead, and he leveraged that trajectory to sign a five-year contract at $5.25 million per year. Then like Rask, he seemed to peak and then fade a bit. In the first year of his new contract in 2017-18, Niederreiter posted 32 points in 63 games. Thus far in 2018-19, his production has been similar at 23 points in 46 games. As such, he had fallen out of grace with the Wild and like Rask was on the trading block.
But like Rask, Niederreiter is an established NHLer with a useful skill set if he can regain the upward trajectory that he had only a couple years ago.
In terms of skill set, Niederreiter is different from Rask in a few key ways. Niederreiter is a wing not a center, and whereas Rask’s strength is his balanced two-way play with a bit less scoring, Niederreiter’s game is more that of a finishing, scoring power forward. Niederreiter is a big body at 6 feet 2 inches tall and 218 pounds, but he also skates well for his size and has decent hands and finishing ability. In short, the good version of Niederreiter is a prototypical scoring power forward who can complement skill players somewhat similar to Micheal Ferland.
The swap of skill sets
As noted above, the biggest factor in this trade is the change of scenery for both players. Both teams are hoping that they traded a player who was fading and not working out for one who will be rejuvenated and catch a spark with a new team.
But past that, Niederreiter much more fits what the Hurricanes need. The team needs a few more players who can put the puck in the net. As a player who has scored 20 or more goals at the NHL level three times and would have done the same with a full season in 2017-18, Niederreiter has the potential to slot into the Hurricanes top 6 forwards and add size and another scorer. On the other hand, even the good version of Rask was a redundant skill set as a scoring-lite, two-way center. Niederreiter potentially brings more of the scoring from the wing that the Canes need.
Contract details
Another factor that made this doable was the fact that the two players contracts line up reasonably well. Both players are signed for three more seasons after which each will become an unrestricted free agent. The Hurricanes will take on an additional $1.25 salary cap hit with Niederreiter’s cap hit of $5.25 million compared to Rask’s $4 million. But the difference is modest, and I still view this as largely a move to get rid of Rask’s contract even if the Canes received a similar salary in return.
My initial grade
I like the trade. Rask had been straying farther and farther from what the team hoped to get when he was re-signed for six years. Also significant is the fact that even the good version of Victor Rask is not so much what the Hurricanes need. Ideally, the team needs to either develop (Martin Necas) or trade for another playmaking/scoring-centric center to boost the offense. Even the good version of Rask is not that type of player. And as a capable two-way center with only middle-ish scoring capability Rask has increasingly become redundant. Jordan Staal is the premium version of a defense-leaning shutdown center who is light on scoring. And the emergence of Lucas Wallmark adds another center of this type who arguably could have scoring upside as he grows past his rookie season. On top of that, the Hurricanes have recently received serviceable or better center play from AHL call ups Clark Bishop and Greg McKegg. When Staal returns from injury, one could make a reasonable case that Rask is the team’s sixth center (Aho, Staal, Wallmark, Bishop, McKegg). That does not work well with a $4 million salary.
So trading Rask without eating salary or paying draft picks to unload him was arguably a positive in itself.
As a similar player trying to re-find a higher gear, Niederreiter is not a sure thing. And the $5.25 million salary for a hopefully/maybe has its own risks. But I think the Hurricanes did well getting a player with a high ceiling and a better fit for what they need.
There are a couple other angles to this deal including Micheal Ferland’s situation. My hope is to include those in a part 2 for the Daily Cup of Joe for Friday.
What say you Canes fans?
What do you think about this deal?
Go Canes!
Now that was unexpected!
Getting any type of return for Rask feels like fleecing the other team, something I have no problem with.
Rask had a total of 1 goal in 23 games, in his current situation he’s a surplus to requirements at center )especially when Jordan Staal returns) and at a cap of 4 mill annual salary he is one of the team’s high earners (likely to change starting next season).
With 9 G and 14 A 23 Pts Nino has not exactly been tearing it up, but neither has the Wild, and it looks favorable compared to Rask.
He’s got more of the big body and grit the team has been looking for with some scoring.
This year he’s being paid 6 mill with a 5 mill cap, but I did not look beyond this year so I don’t know all about his current contract, I’m sure we’ll take the time to look up the stats later.
On the surface this looks like an excellent trade, Rask was one of the Canes most problematic players based on salary, position and recent performance.
It depends what the next steps are. is the plan to trade Ferland (are the Canes obtaining Nino as a Ferland replacement to prepare for such a trade)?
I’m definitely curious to see whether this trade sparks the team at this critical stretch.
So, as I said to you on Twitter just a few minutes ago Matt, I love the deal. Nino is big, physical, skates well, and has an excellent shot. Which of those does Rask do well? The second part of this, to me, is this.. is this a hint that Ferland is a goner? Should we be watching out for a move from him now? They’re very similar players, but I like Ferland a little more. That may be partially my heart talking having seen him be awesome here for a few months, and maybe Nino comes in and takes off and changes my mind… but it’s interesting to me. Of course we could always just keep both and be incredibly tough to play against.
Yeah. I like that. I choose that option.
Wow! It seems like just yesterday I was saying that Ferland type players are hard to come by and viola! I like it.
Great Add for the ‘canes. He fits as a shoot first goal scorer.
This doesn’t change the calculus of what to do with Ferland – trade or sign depends on what his asking price is. Sign if he it is the Wilson price range.
Would love to see the ‘canes go after Jonathon Quick.
welcome to the party … keep posting.
Welcome to the site. Keep posting. Every one on this site has an open mind and are good folks IMO. One caution though…when reading my cr_p…er…excellent contributions be aware I have a perfect record for accuracy. I’m NEVER RIGHT.
I was wondering why the wild would make that trade. Rask is a center, maybe they felt they needed that. NN certainly has better numbers then Rask. We did have a surplus of centers. Looks like a good trade. Seemed like a fleecing. Time will tell.
I still want to keep Ferland. He brings so much, toughness and scoring. I think he was a great addition. Pay him.
My hope is that Niederreiter is another Lindholm–a #5 draft pick that has stagnated on the team that drafted him, but will play like his draft pedigree in a new setting.
For that reason, I see NN as a replacement for Ferland on the first line even if Ferland stays with the Canes. If Neiderreiter doesn’t work out, then reunite Ferland with Aho and TT.
It’s unlikely that he will take a Lindholm-esque explosion. He’s three years older for one, and he’s played with a decent amount of talent in his career before now unlike Elias had prior to this season. I do, however, think he’s the same type of physical, greasy-area banger with a very good shot/finishing ability that can step right into that role with the Finns should we be forced to move on from Ferland. If Ferland stays, he adds really nice depth and I think could fit wonderfully with Necas (and Svechnikov?) in the future. That’s two pretty exciting lines if you ask me.
One thing I’ll add, there are some interesting articles if you look for them about Nino. He never really lived up to the hype that comes with his 5th overall pick status, but it’s notable that after an abysmal rookie year (1 goal, 0 assists, -29 in 55 games) he really seems to have been coachable, worked hard, and carved out a nice career as a rock-solid middle six winger.
Getting that – even if his scoring is down a touch with a struggling Minnesota squad – for Rask earns a solid A from me.
While Niederreiter was drafted three years before Lindholm, he is barely 2 years older.
I don’t expect him to double his best scoring year–as it appears Lindholm might since Lindholm’s best was 45 points. Neiderreiter’s best to date is 57 points and he has scored 20 goals three times. I do think playing with Aho and Teravainen can get him to 30 goals and 65 points.
Maybe a better comparison than Lindholm is Landeskog. They are two months apart in age. This season Landeskog appears to be adding 20 points to his best season. Again, I think a 65 point pace for the rest of this season and next season is quite reasonable.
I like the trade a lot.
Re: Rask
it clears a developing center logjam;
moves a $4M 4th line center from our roster, salary, and cap space;
moves a player who’s performance has been problematic regardless of salary and slotting.
for Rask:
Hopefully a change in scenery will do him good, as it did for Skinner, Lundholm, and Hanifin.
re: Nino
he is big and physical, but he is not a Ferland clone – not nearly as much of a disruptor;
he is streaky and has seen his ice time go up and down as a result – which suggests to me that he doesn’t bring a lot to the game if he is not scoring;
he should provide better scoring on the right than we currently have but I am not sure who he will displace – certainly not Turbo or Williams, then Martinook or Maenalenen? (this will be interesting to see);
re: Ferland
There is an interview with Waddell since Sunday in which he says they are making an effort to sign Ferland, which is interesting because the two sides apparently hadn’t talked since December;
by the end of the interview you get the impression that Waddell knows they won’t sign him because it would reflect a short-term solution when the team is trying to build for the long term.
re: the Wild
why would they make this trade? – they are so tight to the cap, even going into next season, that every million of cap relief (they 1.25 with this trade) makes a difference as to who they can extend (Staal at a raise over his current $3.5M?) or sign;
there are rumors the team (M/C) weren’t happy with his overall performance and were hoping to move him on that basis as well.
re: more to come?
according to LeBrun there is more to come with the Canes “hoping to trade for a top-6 F using a d-man” (or words to that effect).
I agree with the assessment of my fellow posters and my initial reaction is to love the trade. Rask wasn’t working out here for whatever reason and NN should increase our scoring – should being a presumptive word that will play out over time. Still, it’ll be hard not to score more than Rask has lately.
The other angle, to which Matt alluded, is the Ferland Situation – yes, that’s become an all-caps phrase (not to be confused with The Bonnie Situation). We just spent $1.5m/yr to add another ~20 points per year. When you factor in the type of point production that represents – net-front presence, finishing-type goals – basically, what we need more of – that seems like a reasonable economic decision that becomes a great decision if his production returns to past levels.
My gut tells me that we’re going to trade Ferland to the highest bidder – and why wouldn’t we now if he is determined to test the market? – he might just have the highest rental value in the league. I’d love to keep him and am happy to pay him a high/fair price, but … this isn’t our year so we have to take the long view.
This acquisition of NN IS GOOD, and short of an injury, or unaccountable event a terrific move! I really don’t want to see Ferland leave (over money) ,and unless they can make another REALLY GOOD TRADE…I would say “pay the man”!
WE really have enough 3rd or 4th line centers, but another top 6 center (Aho +?), would be nice, or a top6 wing, or young goalie prospect!!???