After a massive an much-needed nap after the prospect camp scrimmage, I am catching up on a busy Canes hockey day.
For those looking for a recap and notes from the prospect scrimmage, that is in process too and will be up either later tonight or early on Sunday.
After mostly quiet July 1 openings of free agency that often saw the salary cap ceiling Metropolitan Division teams get better and the Hurricanes either stand pat or make minor deals, Ron Francis made a bigger splash today.
Timed perfectly to be announced during the intermission of the prospects game at PNC Arena with the Hurricanes faithful on hand, it was announced that the Hurricanes had signed former Hurricane and three-time (once with the Hurricanes obviously) Stanley Cup Champion Justin Williams to a two-year contract.
The crowd roared and a feeling of Hurricanes hockey goodness immediately filled the building.
The signing was a huge marketing win for a team that has a few times seemed out of touch with its fan base this time of year.
The bullet point assessment of Justin Williams’ signing
For those who do not care to dig into all of the details and minutiae that follow…
Pros: Leadership, a potential jolt forward in terms of mindset, an ‘any line’ right wing and depth scoring.
Cons: Not the pure offensive catalyst desired, paid a premium and spent big chunk of budget on player whose scoring projects similarly to Lee Stempniak’s.
At a basic level, I like the deal, but that is partially a function of believing that the better options were just too pricey trade-wise.
The path that pushed Justin Williams up the target list over the past month
From the very beginning of my coverage of the Hurricanes’ efforts to build a winner for 2017-18, I have been steadfast in my assessment of what the Hurricanes need to add. On May 31, I declared that the second priority behind only a goalie was adding a difference-making top 6 forward who could be a catalyst not just a complementary player and depth scorer. I followed that up by issuing a warning to avoid the ‘shiny things’ and even went a step further on June 14 including Justin Williams in large list of ‘cuts’ many of whom were good players but did not address the need and therefore were screened out of a top 10 list that I built.
But as the rumors and rumblings of sky-high prices for possible trade targets persisted, I entered July 1 with a more open mind for players who could improve the Hurricanes even if not meeting the high-end requirements laid out a month earlier. In my final ‘free agent frenzy’ lead up on Friday, June 30, I included Justin Williams in a tiny two-player second tier of options for whom I would pay a premium.
The message and the path forward
I will undoubtedly go on to discuss Justin Williams’ signing on multiple levels, but I think a critical starting point is a couple Tweest from Friday.
Might sound strange, but biggest thing Justin Williams brings for non-playoff team is mindset of playing for 2017-18 playoffs from day 1.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 30, 2017
Justin Williams is not going somewhere to optimistically see how it goes in 2017-18. That mentality is powerful transition for some teams.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 30, 2017
With the addition, the Hurricanes are not rebuilding with the hopes of making they playoffs soon. They are not optimistic about the 2017-18. They are not confident that they could be in the mix in March.
The Carolina Hurricanes, very directly, are playing to make the 2017-18 playoffs.
And if the signing did not make that clear, Justin Williams’ comments a couple hours after the deal was announced re-emphasized that fact.
Williams said, “Carolina…They haven’t made the playoffs since 2009. That’s a long time. We’re done losing. It’s time to climb the ladder and get relevant.”
In 20 minutes only two hours after joining the team and before even returning to Raleigh, Justin Williams has already pushed the team forward in terms of setting a different mentality and mindset for the upcoming season.
Justin Williams’ contract
Williams was signed for two years for a $4.5 million annual average – $5 million in 2017-18 and $4 million in 2018-19.
By no means did he take a homecoming discount. Put simply, Williams is pricey for what he brings in terms of raw statistics. Francis paid a significant premium for leadership and maybe the jolt that the team needed.
Williams played for four years in Los Angeles for $3.83 million per year and then followed that up with two years in Washington for $3.25 million annually. For some combination of leadership and possibly needing to overbid to beat out higher-end teams, my rough math says that Francis paid a premium to fair market value of about $1 – 1.5 million.
But the contract is a very good fit in terms of term and direction. If Williams jolts the mindset forward how much is that worth? And the two years lines up well with the second wave of young players needing raises for their second contracts.
And though ultimately the move will be judged later based on results, it is hard to fault Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis for leaning forward a bit and making an aggressive move after 9 consecutive playoff misses.
Justin Williams on the ice and his match for the Hurricanes’ needs
At a high level, Justin Williams at 35 years old is not a try to add locker room leadership in the form of a player who is washed up. Williams is still a good top 9 forward who is capable of playing in that role even on good playoff teams like the 2016-17 Capitals.
Williams is not as flexible as others’ positionally. He really is just a right wing. But he is incredibly flexible in the sense that he can play on any kind of line and has shown a propensity to complement his line mates and make his line better in a variety of roles. He has lined up on the right side of some scoring juggernaut lines in Los Angeles and Washington and held his own. He has also capable of being a key part of a shutdown line like he was with Rod Brind’Amour during the Hurricanes’ finest hours during the 2005-06 season. I literally could see him slotting with any group in the top 9 and being a positive part of his line.
So Justin Williams is a good player and improves the Hurricanes roster.
But he is not the high-end offensive catalyst/playmaker that I identified as the team’s targeted need. On a Washington Capitals team that finished third in the entire NHL in total goals scored and tied for fourth for power play goals, Williams finished with a good but not eye-popping 24 goals and 48 points in a full season of work (80 games). He had 52 points in the previous season with the Capitals, but a better comparable for what he might do with the Hurricanes might be his previous two seasons in Los Angeles with 41 and 43 points respectively in 2014-15 and 2013-14.
When viewed in that light, Justin Williams looks a lot like Lee Stempniak scoring-wise. He could have a ceiling in the 50s if he found chemistry that jolted him upward, but reasonable expectations are probably in the 40-50-point range. And though I think he will make anyone he plays with better, I do not see Williams as a pure playmaking catalyst who will instantly vault line mates to a much higher level by dishing bunches of scoring chances to them.
But not to be missed on legitimate emphasis on increasing scoring is the fact that Williams is a good 200-foot player. When looking for a favorable comparison as a great forechecker and neutral zone defender in Hurricanes’ history for prospect Warren Foegele, Williams is the player who jumped out in my mind. Even when he was younger, he was not the fastest guy on the rink, but he was fast enough and always had the right combination of skating incredibly hard for his 40 seconds, reading plays and getting quick starts and understanding angles and assignments.
More succinctly, Williams is a very good two-way forward who is capable of lining up against some of the NHL’s best and holding his own.
Leadership
Any discussion of Justin Williams’ signing today would be remiss if it did not address the leadership addition. I touched on the signing significantly and abruptly forcing or at least accelerating a shift in mindset in the locker room. But the transition at hand takes more than stirring up a ruckus and some adrenaline.
With the shift comes some pressure and the need for players to grow. Williams is perfect in that regard too. He is a veteran who has been successful multiple times over and significantly done so in multiple different organizations. He brings wisdom and I think an ability to help the young roster with the transition from ‘we will do and hope for the best every game’ to ‘we will find a way to push into the playoffs.’ The two are more completely different than I think some realize and especially when a team hits a bump in the road during a long NHL season (which will inevitably happen), there needs to be a guide to help a young team right the ship, stay on course and emerge.
The past couple Hurricanes’ seasons have been sunk by the team’s inability to right the ship soon enough early in the season. Sure, the team responded well once the game changed to digging out of a hole, but in my estimation that is actually part of the problem. For the past couple years, the Hurricanes have only been able to muster ‘desperate’ in terms of effort when things truly were desperate and perhaps when pressure was actually relieved a little bit because the game shifted to facing an impossible challenge which in some ways is easier.
But Hurricanes’ mindset and philosophy aside, the team very clearly added another great locker room leader to its roster with the addition of Justin Williams whether he rises up to formally wear the ‘C’ for two years or leads with an ‘A’ or even nothing.
What say you Canes fans?
When I needed a big nap after a whirlwind week after the prospect camp scrimmage today, I opened the Coffee Shop which has a couple polls on the Justin Williams’ signing and also the usual great reader comments.
Feel free to share your thoughts on today’s signing either here or there.
Go Canes!
I really like this aggressive signing by RF. This sends a great message to the players as well as the fan base. JW was on my wish list awhile back. Now we just need Duchene (I think Sakic is visiting Colorado’s pot dispensaries too often) or maybe Galchenyuk. A low-priced veteran depth defenseman (Brian Campbell, etc.) would be nice as well. I wonder if our budget has increased. Thoughts?
Hard to say exactly where Francis’ internal budget sits. He has mentioned it a couple times, so we know it still exists, but he has not talked with as much detail/specific numbers like Rutherford did.
My wild guess is that the budget is roughly the same as last season which was a few million over the minimum. That would give Francis the ability to squeeze in one more big signing (with approval) if a great opportunity presents itself or otherwise to make 1 or 2 more smaller deals and still hit the number.
Matt. Strong analysis of what Williams should mean going forward. I saw, and I think most of the folks who comment on C&C have made similar points, a Canes team last season that looked ready to make the next step. But some nights one of two things let them down–goaltending or finding an extra goal. Both of those have been addressed. Plus the bonus with Williams of leadership on the ice and in the locker room.
When I look at the team as it exist after yesterday, there are significant improvements on whichever line JW is slotted and the fourth line. There is little room for an addition or a prospect making the team out of camp. In fact, my read is that either McGinn or DiGiuseppe will not play regularly. So the only move that looks reasonable now would be to package the 2018 first round pick with someone like Stempniak or (I would prefer not) Teravainen for a player like Galchenyuk. I am not sure that offer works–and it definitely doesn’t get Duchene. I guess I am of the mind that significant deals are done.
I think names like Duchene and Galchenyuk are fairy tales. What we have to offer are prospects, maybe picks. Both CO and MTL want top-4 D. Not happening.
I agree, and then there was reality. RF made it very clear at the summerfest that he will not trade any of our 4 D for guys that would potentially be here for only a couple of years. Not happening.
1C is not going to happen unless there is a drastic change in attitude by Montreal or Colorado. Our D is off the table. I never viewed the 1C (trading our D) as a viable option. Maybe they do a trade with forwards.
I am very happy with adding Williams. I am also happy to have another guy who could be compared with Lee Stempniak. That is not a bad thing. Rather then a stud 1C, it will be goals by committee. We have plenty of good guys who can do 40-50 plus, and the young guys are growing. We really did not have to have a 1C.
RF has addressed all the needs. I could see taking a shot at Thomas Vanek if we could get a cheap signing. I think RF is purposely allowing our AHL guys to become more then ready when they are called up. If we are done, I do think we will be dangerous next year. We really have a lot of scoring threats, what should be a very good goalie and what should become a killer defense.
I think you’re dead on with the leadership/mindset change he brings making this a significant signing. I think he’ll do wonders for the kids like Aho and Hanifin (and maybe Kuokkanen, Wallmark, Zykov?) in the room, create a level of accountability, and help get them to playing at a high level, their very best. I think, with our defense, high-potential offense, and Darling on the back end, this team WILL make the playoffs this year and maybe even make some noise for a round or two once there.
I think it was a good signing, considering the options. And as far as overpaying, We’ll be just slightly over the cap floor, once we sign PDG. We had to spend the money, so spending it on a player who can put up 40-50 points, brings leadership, and makings the fans happy is a good thing.
My thoughts:
1. Matt, you are way off base in describing Justin Williams as a replica of Lee Stempniak. 24 goals (they pay for the puck in the net) compared to 15 or 16 goals is a step up. Justin has outscored Stempniak in goals virtually every year. This is not to say that Stempniak is somehow a poor player. He is an excellent player in the role of supplemental scorer he plays. Justin’s role is a top line forward that puts the puck in the net.
2. Ron Francis has stated publicly that Peter Karmanos has given him virtually free reign to build this team. Enough of the negative “we can’t spend the money” talk from us fans. We just signed the best free agent forward out there. We can argue about whether we need to sign or obtain another player, but whether we do that or not, won’t be decided by the amount of ANNUAL pay for a player. It may be decided by term, but more than likely it will be decided by what assets we are willing to give up to get whatever player we feel we need. YOU are quibbling about whether we overpaid by 1 million bucks to get a player we needed. Would you have passed on him? It took what RF paid to get Williams. If he hadn’t paid the million you call “extra” and we hadn’t got Williams, then the outcry and lament would have been the Canes weren’t willing to spend the dollars.
My question is why would there be anything but glee at getting Williams and praise for RF for doing so? If you feel we should do more, then what are your ideas? What players still out there will further strengthen the team. Free agent wise, there’s Marleau for example. Do we go after him and if you think we should if we pay him 6 million a year for two years are you going to be more concerned about the 6 million or happy to get the player knowing that’s what it took to get him to come here. When it comes to trading for another asset obtaining a Duchene, Kane or Galchenyuk for example will not be determined by their salary. It will be determined by what assets we are willing to sacrifice to get them. Right now, despite all the fan rumblings that we need to do more, I don’t see any FANS willing to give up any where near what Colorado, Buffalo or Montreal wants for their lumps of gold. That being the case, it’s time to get off RF’s butt and start being a little more optimistic about just where we stand talent wise. Success or failure for the 2017-18 season will not be because of any budget constraints IMO. It’s time for the fans to shed their “small market, won’t spend the money” thinking. RF started with a mess and has been building this team the only way it could be built and how all other successful teams have been built. Draft well and develop your own core, then when you have a decent competitive core, improve through trades and/or free agent signings to fill in the holes. RF hasn’t had the benefit of a top five draft pick ever and yet he has accomplished building a core with drafted players who have developed into core players. He hasn’t had the luxury of drafting a McDavid, Crosby, Eichel, Malkin, Kane, etc. type player. Dollars paid for salaries hasn’t been a constraint on RF IMO. The determining factor for what this team has spent on players has been the state of the team’s ability to build a core through the draft and astute trades.
ctcaniac, for example, has pointed out how we might obtain Galchenyuk through a trade. His mix of assets to get Galchenyuk seems reasonable to me. But what if it required giving Montreal Rask, Bean or Fleury, and a second round draft pick to get Galchenyuk? Would that be a good move? To me just looking at the assets involved, I would do it if the defenseman was Bean, not Fleury.
Totally agree RR. IMO opinion we do not have to have Duchene or Galchenyuk. Its time to shelf that. If we can do something with other then our top 4 D, fine, but its not a necessity. RF did a great job. We got one of the best UFAs. I was very happy with RF protecting Lee Stempniak with the draft pick. He is a seriously good player. My gosh, 40-50 points for 2.5M. That is a no brainer.
Justin Williams is going to be great for leadership in addition to what he brings point-wise.
Well, high-end player is a totally must, to give Caniacs something to cheer for-playoffs or not
Canes need first-line center, so they will trade for Duchene, but only if he signs contract extension
So likely is that where the deal is hanging in the balance
CBJ cannot afford Duchene long-term, too many young players that would need a raise -I am sure they want Kovi to play with Panarin
Preds are clearly done with Bonino signing
That leaves Carolina as the most likely destination, were Duchene to sign a long-term contract, that is assuming he wants to play for Hurricanes to begin with, or wants out of Denver, no matter what
Good point but as long as we do not give up our D. I was at the Summerfest and I can tell you that is not going to happen. RF was very clear on that when the question was asked. Don’t get me wrong I would love to have him but only if Sakic come back to the real world.
Welcome goldsnow! Always great to see a new person and new opinions added to the conversation.
The Duchene thing will be interesting to watch unfold. Whereas it started as a seller’s market (at least in Sakic’s mind), the potential suitors are dwindling and/or having less urgency as teams add other players.
And Sakic has painted himself into a corner by how publicly and dragged out the Duchene saga has been. It’s not out of the question that the situation eventually devolves all the way into a game of musical chairs with Sakic a bit desperate and a reasonable collection of futures being the best he can get. The longer it drags on, the more I like Francis’ chances of getting into the game.
Maybe a 2-year window for Duchene is not so bad. After all, if Nicas keeps developing like we hope he can (it is a big if, I admit, but far from impossible), the Canes might need a bridge top 1 C for approx. 2 years until he is ready to step in and show us what he can do.
I think a #1 C is still a significant need that the canes should address (at least try to do anything within reason to do so).
I have to say the JJ signing mystifies me. I’d rather keep that spot available to some of our rising players. His stats are anything but impressive, and even if he is cheap, he cost us almost a million, would be better spent somewhere else, e.g. rsigning the Juice.
I agree that two years for Duchene is not necessarily a horrible thing. The mismatch right now is that no way does it make sense to give up a young top 4 defenseman for a rental, even if it is an extended 2-year rental.
Yah, no idea on the jj signing???
RedRyder…you pretty much said it all, agree completely!
My question to you, or anyone, is what would be your preference…Duchene, Galchenyuk, or someone else?
Two points as I see them:
1) One of the other commenters mentioned 235 goals as the “magic number” for making the playoffs. By my back of the envelope calculations adding Williams and getting some more productive players on the 4th has Carolina likely between 230-235 for next season. So the need for a 1C is not really about the playoffs, but about winning series once we get there. I think most fans should be happy with the playoffs this coming season. Because beyond this season I agree with Breezy. In the next 2-3 years we will have one of the better 1Cs and 2Cs from among Aho, Necas, Kuokkanen. So I don’t know if GMRF should trade away any of the pieces it would take to land Duchene or even Nugget-Hopkins.
2) Jooris appears to be a signing for the PK. His stats indicate he can fill in on the 2nd PK unit and is sound defensively (i.e. his Takeaway/Giveaway ratio is quite good, though limited). I think the staff wants to keep the PK elite. Steal, Lindholm, and Nordstrom are reliable. Beyond that I don’t think the brain trust wants to use Williams’ minutes/energy on the PK if they don’t have to. I think probably the same with Aho to a lesser degree. So Jooris is cheap PK insurance–I bet both Peters and the analytics folks have watched significant tape and believe Jooris can replace McClement.
Thanks CT. I knew RF had a reason for Jooris. I was not seeing it but what you said makes a lot of sense. RF does not do things for no reason.
Fyi guys, I checked NHL NUMBERS for grins, and at this time the Canes total cap is 56.7M and have 18.3M cap space. Last year the cap space was 16.7M. Last year the max cap was 73M, this year it’s 75M. If RedRyder is correct about NOT HAVING A RETARDED INTERNAL BUDGET…then we could spend another 18+M.
I don’t expect to see RF come close to that, but two good players can be added w/o coming close to the cap.
Also, by my count we have 12 forwards, 6 Dmen, and 2 goalies signed. 2o total… and usually the roster is 22 or 23 IIRC.
Just curious. if we do get a 1c, who do we replace? I do not think that a stud 1c would make that much difference. Meaning, a true 1c would not win us the cup. I believe we make the playoffs now… with the team we have. The loss of a top 4d in order to get a 1c just doesn’t make sense to me.
I believe the interesting thing that I have not seen mentioned is there really is a major shift here… We SHOULD make the playoffs now, not maybe. We will (well maybe just me and some others) have been happy with the moves and long term based progress that has happened in the last 3 years (not 8 years!). For me, that just changed… I now expect to make the playoffs and if we don’t, then “Lucy, you got some splaining to do!”.
And when you think about, that is a pretty cool shift!