Today it was announced that the Carolina Hurricanes had extended Jaccob Slavin by signing him to a 7-year contract for $5.3 million per year. Counting 2017-18 on his entry-level contract, Jaccob Slavin is now set to be a cornerstone of the team’s defense through 2024-25. He is now scheduled to be on the Carolina Hurricanes roster for longer than any other player, passing Jordan Staal who is signed through 2022-23.
At the most basic level, this is great news. Slavin and partner Brett Pesce both took massive steps up in terms of role and level of play for the second consecutive season in 2016-17 and grew to become a solid top pairing way ahead of schedule.
And in the process, General Manager Ron Francis has now knocked out the top three of my “5 Carolina Hurricanes predictions for the offseason” from my article way back on April 20, 2017.
Jaccob Slavin’s contract
Jaccob Slavin’s salary
My early math and propensity to always look for a bargain had Slavin’s contract coming in a bit lower. I had optimistically hoped for a bargain in the $4-4.5 million range. Part of the difference is the 7-year term (I was using 5 as a baseline). Buying out a couple unrestricted free agency years in years six and seven and accounting for salary inflation makes up part of the difference. In addition, I think salaries are just escalating right now. McDavid’s deal bumped up the overall ceiling and the volume of $7 millions and $8 millions being thrown around for players below the top tier is also pulling prices up.
Where I land on price: Despite (maybe unrealistically given market conditions and term) hoping for a bit lower, the price is fair. If you think about it over the 7-year term, I would call it “fair for a restricted free agent who proved himself in 2016-17” for 2017-18 and 2018-19. Past the first couple years, if Jaccob Slavin remains a legitimate top pairing defenseman and even better boosts his offensive production, the deal will become a greater and greater bargain over time.
For an idea of where Slavin’s salary rates compared to similar defenseman, check out my article entitled, “Case and expected terms for re-signing Jaccob Slavin early” back on May 17.
Term
I lean conservative on contract term am of the opinion that risk increases fairly significantly after three years. I am NOT saying that players should not be signed past three years, but at the same time I think calling any athlete a sure thing looking out 5-6 years inaccurately considers the range of possibilities that far out.
That said, as far as 7-year deals go, I think Slavin’s contract easily falls into the bottom quartile for risk. He will only be 24 years old when the new contract kicks in, so only the last year-ish occurs after he hits the dangerous 30+ category. In addition, I would not underestimate the importance of Slavin’s maturity in the risk equation. His steadiness as a person decreases the variability of the possible outcomes 5-7 years out.
Where I land on term/risk: The conservative part of me leans toward capping contracts at five years, but if I was forced to go seven years with only one current Hurricanes player, Slavin would be my choice. His age is right. His level of play is right. And his physical skill set as a mobile, skating defenseman who rates highly for read/react sets a really high floor even if he does not improve from where he is right now.
The importance of Jaccob Slavin’s deal in the team’s financial structure
I think right now Jaccob Slavin is the Hurricanes best defenseman. Giving credit where it is due, the margin over partner Brett Pesce small. The “if he puts it all together” version of Justin Faulk could also challenge Slavin. And though he is not there yet, Noah Hanifin’s ceiling also has the potential to challenge Slavin.
But at this point in time and not doing projections or measuring maybes in future, I think Slavin is the team’s best. Maybe even more significantly, I think Slavin will hit a higher gear scoring-wise in 2017-18. If he does so, he could clearly establish himself as the 1D on the team. If that happens, his $5.3 million salary could set a reference point and serve as a limit for the contracts to follow. On defense, Brett Pesce and Noah Hanifin are also due to receive new contracts next summer, and Haydn Fleury could step into the NHL this season and be on a similar course only a year later.
Slavin as the top defenseman and even potentially top player if he rises offensively as I expect in 2017-18 could provide powerful leverage for Francis as he works through a couple years of having to re-sign good young players and somehow try to keep costs down. On the blue line, Brett Pesce and Noah Hanifin are due for new contracts next summer. Though the impact is less direct, Slavin’s deal could even provide some help as Francis also works to re-sign young forwards like Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm and others.
I wrote in more detail about the potential team impact of re-signing Jaccob Slavin early in my article from April 6 even before the 2016-17 season had ended. Check out “Why it is time to re-sign Jaccob Slavin and how his contract could broadly impact the Hurricanes financial future.”
Finally, if you just want to enjoy what Jaccob Slavin did in 2017-18 and immerse yourself in what the next eight years could entail, check out my ‘report card’ article for Jaccob Slavin’s 2016-17 season.
What say you Caniacs?
I will certainly get back to Jaccob Slavin and his new contract with a few more details in the next few days but would also love to hear your thoughts on the deal.
On scale of 1-10 with 1 being “just good” and 10 being phenomenal how happy are you with today’s announcement?
What are your thoughts on the annual salary and term?
Do you think that Slavin’s deal is the first domino that could see another play or two re-signed early?
Go Canes!
Hopefully this sets the bar for Pesce and Hanafin. Would like to see those extensions done over the next few days/weeks. This has been one interesting summer for this Cane’s fan.
I think this is very good news. IMO a few years from now we will view this as a steal. 10
I am okay with the term and salary. Last year was supposed to be the dreaded sophomore year. I view him as only getting better.
Yes, I do you think that Slavin’s deal is the first domino. Now it is time to get Pesce. I think he could be just as good. I would give him the same deal or close to it. I know people view his offense as not as good but that can improve and he may even be a little better defensively. Hanafin has the highest ceiling but he needs to prove himself yet. I would probably not resign him until next year when we get a better read. He is younger so if RF thinks the time is now, I have no issue.
I’m in the 8-9 range on your scale. My concerns are the same as yours. There are no 10s when it comes to long term contracts, but I agree he is worth the risk. His makeup also gives you confidence that he will continue to work hard and take care of himself, which probably played into the term decision.
I think it is the first domino and sets the precedent for other signings. This team gonna be expensive going forward. I’m sure RF has a plan for this too. This team gonna be fun to root for for many years to come.
Ecstatic!!! 10
I think the term is what makes this good. By year 7, Top D’s will probably be getting 8mill…
I agree with icecobra on Pesce… he should be next with similar terms. IMO, he is the same as Slavin. Signing Pesce now shows him RF thinks so as well. Keep that pair together!!!
Definitely at a 9.5. If it was under $5 mil it’d be a 10, but even so this is fantastic value, especially if his ceiling is any significant amount higher than his current level of play. Getting him through his age 31 ceiling is basically a Hallelujah! moment.
I will admit, I thought they’d resign Slavin and Pesce at the same time, but I highly doubt Pesce gets through the season without an extension. Hanifin will wait for his own sake, because if he does take the step forward we all think he will, he’ll be paid just as much next year. Locking up these defensemen long term is the best use of our salary cap surplus that I can possibly think of, times five.
Okay we know Matt likes to think a lot about what will happen if Hanifin regresses -couldn’t resist, sorry Matt (; – but think about if he actually takes the step forward? We could have 2 pairings of top-pair caliber defensemen. Couple that with potentially 3 2nd-line quality lines (if Peters keeps Skinner with Ryan and Stemp) and some decent health, then we are a very deep team. Add the gold mine of prospects in the equation and we will be so for years.
If you weren’t excited yet…I commend you for rightly-shown skepticism, but it’s too late for me. I’m fully on the bandwagon for this team making the playoffs in 2017-18. I can feel it. Who’s ready for hockey season!?!
fogger–I share your place on the bandwagon. The talent is there, the system is starting to work, and the Canes added a top-flight goalie, and another scorer who just happens to have experience in the playoffs. Unless something unforeseen happens prior to game 1, the organization is going to be in year one of 7-year playoff run.
That brings up a question, do most teams top 4 D average $5mil each? $20 mil for top 4 D… just wondering.
Actually $20 million is pretty close to the exact average that most teams pay their top 4 D-men. This is just based off a cursory check through several teams on CapGeek, but the range is typically between 18-22 million. FYI, the 2017-18 version of the Hurricanes, if all stays the same, will be paying ALL their defensemen a total of about $9 million. This is fun.
Love the deal – 9-ish. Even if he regresses to “only” a 2nd pairing guy in the out years, it’ll probably still look like good value.
I’m not sure I’m ready to give the same deal/term to Pesce yet: I’d like to see more confirmation of his offensive upside. I want to see Hanifin take a big step forward this year and then we’ll talk turkey.
And Fogger, I’m ready too!
And fabdou, it is going to be fun!!
I really like this contract a lot – both term and price. I like the fact that RF isn’t afraid to give term to players he wants to keep around for a long while (Rask last season). It provides stability to the team – and the community, in which Jaccob and his wife have been actively involved since they moved here.
We will be associating Jaccob with the Canes for a long time.
I just want to enjoy the moment of this signing before speculating on how it will affect the signing and terms of other players. But I will be surprised at things:
(1) Pesce getting the same deal (price/terms) as Slavin; and
(2) Hanifin signing a contract this summer.
I would give it a 9. The total cost is a little more that I would have liked, but I agree that the out years will seem inexpensive, so I understand.
Pesce should get something close–maybe 7 yrs./$36M. He is going to be the defensive rock for many years to come. He may not have as much offensive upside as Slavin, but I have already stated that I think he should start the season with Fleury–because we have all seen Hanifin’s struggles with the “wrong” partner. So if the organization is going to invest 1st round picks and time in the juniors and AHL on LHDs (Fleury and Bean in particular) then pairing them with Peace will do wonders for their transition to the NHL. And if I am correct, then Pesce’s value in getting the most out of Fleury and Bean is worth every bit as much as 10-12 goals and 30 assists.
I want to add a little depth to my previous comment. While I don’t spend nearly the time that Matt does analyzing the Canes, I do try to understand how hockey is evolving due to analytics. One of the articles I read made a convincing argument that the “best” players on a team should be separated–because having a team’s #1 threat on one line and #2 threat on another creates two lines where a team conceivably has a match-up advantage. The article was talking about forwards and specifically offensive ability, but I can see the same argument for defensive prowess. After reading that article, I began thinking splitting Pesce and Slavin might work.
Also as icecobra mentions in the other thread today–TVR appears to have D4 potential. In fact, appropos to the OP’s premise, the Canes have three RHD who have some component of their game that is “first or second line” quality. Faulk’s goal-scoring and ability to create offense, Pesce’s defensive skills. and TRVs combination of the two, which suggest that he is solid enough for second line consideration.
The most likely scenario would be to put Slavin with TVR, Pesce with Fleury, and Hanifin with Faulk. There are scenarios where it makes sense to keep Pesce and Slavin together–Edmonton comes to mind as they try to keep McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line. But when the top forwards from another team are separated, I, for one, like the idea of having Pesce and Slavin on different pairings. Or at least I like experimenting with it in preseason. If it obviously fails, nothing is lost and the Slavin/Pesce, Hanifin/Faulk, and Fleury/TVR pairings can be used.
For 3) – I just listened to the press conference with JS and RF. RF was asked about other players signing this summer. RF responded that he had talked with a “lot of” other players who were in Jaccob’s situation – some are in discussions and some will get back to RF.
By my count, there are 6 players whose contracts expire in 2018 and who will become RFAs (Pesce, TvR, Dahlbeck, Hanifin, Lindholm, Nordstorm). I would be interested in who they are talking with and who will get to them.
This deal is a 10! Well deserved and just as Matt pointed out, you know what you are getting from this young man and he will only ripen with age.
Interesting points from GMRF during the presser. I believe Pesce is eager to extend and I’m anticipating 6yr/5mil per. TVR may want to feel out things in Raleigh before committing mid-term, so I can see both sides pending matters.
Hanifin is where things become more tricky. I believe both sides are suggesting to wait and see. This is why I see Hanifin’s progress in 2017-18 being the determining factor on Faulks’s long term future. Reason being, if Hanifin proves top 4 (or top 2) worthy numbers in 2017-18, then GMRF likely locks him up for 8 years next spring/summer. However, if Hanifin is borderline top 4D in performance, then I believe GMRF then makes a decision to flip Hanifin. The likelihood of us keeping Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin and Faulk long term are not likely (remember our rising offense needs to be paid, too).
Good points, however, as fogger pointed out above, 20Mill for top 4 D is about the average for good teams… and that is about what we will have. So I am hoping that the cost will not be the reason split up the top 4. We should have money to pay the others.
Can I go to “11”? Cash wise is fine for a top Dman. And he’ll still be on the right side of 30 when the contract expires. Hopefully Pesce signs next. Because he makes everybody, even Jaccob better(and not just because he signed my #22 jersey).
This signing is a 9 but will fall to a 7 if the canes cant lock up Pesce as well. Im with everyone else. They both should have about the same contract. The chemistry between them and their maturity make it an incredible value and I would be very cautious of signing Pesce for much less because I feel like it sends the wrong message to Pesce. I think as a former player Ron will get it right.